Macro Monday 41 Japan Consumer Confidence Index (Released Tuesday 9th April 2024) Japan is the third largest economy in the world after the United States and China, contributing about 8% of global GDP, despite having only 1.8% of the world’s population. For such an impactful populace, lets see how the Japanese consumer confidence levels are looking at...
Macro Monday 39 Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (Next Release is this Wednesday 27th March 2024) Last week we covered the the Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (the "ZEW Index") and learned that the sentiment data for the ZEW Index comes from 350 economists spanning the Euro Area (20 of the 27 EU member states that use the Euro currency). The...
Macro Monday 39 (Part B) This chart is a summary of the past two weeks of work in Macro Mondays on the EU Sentiment The Chart illustrates the forward looking Euro Area ZEW Sentiment Index (red line) and the current sentiment outlook via the Euro Area Economic Sentiment Index (the "ESI", the blue line). In the chart I have used thick orange lines to illustrate...
Macro Monday 36 The Redbook Index – U.S Physical Retail Store Sales (Released Tomorrow Tuesday 4th March 2024) This Johnson Redbook Index is very useful at providing the most current insights into consumer spending habits in the U.S. It is released every week covering the prior Mon – Sun consumer spend period in physical outlets around the U.S. The index...
Macro Monday (6) United States ISM Manufacturing New Order Index - ECONOMICS:USMNO This week I have honed in on the Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing New Orders Index (ISM New Orders Index) as it is the largest component of the headline Purchaser Managers Index(PMI) making up 30% of that index. I also make the case below for how it can act as...
#DXY #WeeklyOutlook Next week is Thanksgiving holiday so, historically that week can be a hit or miss and especially given the fact that we don't have a lot of news this week so I would tread lightly. We don't have any red folder news until Wednesday and that is going to be an early release of #UnemploymentClaims , #DurableGoods, and #ConsumerSentiment. On...
#SPX #WeeklyOutlook: Next week is Thanksgiving holiday so, historically that week can be a hit or miss and especially given the fact that we don't have a lot of news this week so I would tread lightly. We don't have any red folder news until Wednesday and that is going to be an early release of #UnemploymentClaims , #DurableGoods, and #ConsumerSentiment. On...
#NAS #WeeklyOutlook Next week is Thanksgiving holiday so, historically that week can be a hit or miss and especially given the fact that we don't have a lot of news this week so I would tread lightly. We don't have any red folder news until Wednesday and that is going to be an early release of #UnemploymentClaims , #DurableGoods, and #ConsumerSentiment. On...
Need to do some more work on this, but was mentioned to me about the negative correlation between WTI and Consumer Sentiment. Not trading recommendations or advice. I am posting this to open up for discussion the possible correlations/relationship between the two.
The euro has extended its losses on Wednesday and has declined close to 1% this week. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0552, down 0.18%. Germany has traditionally been the powerhouse of Europe but finds itself lagging in the rear, with a struggling economy and high inflation. The GfK Consumer Climate index fell to -26.5 for October, down from a...
The New Zealand dollar has started the week in positive territory. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5918 in the North American session, up 0.34%. New Zealand's Services PMI eased to 47.1 in August, down from 47.8 in July. The reading marked a third straight decline in activity and was the lowest level since January 2022. This comes on the heels of Friday's Manufacturing...
ISM New Orders Vs Michigan Consumer Sentiment index ISM New orders provide an indication of current consumer demand. Utilising a chart of New Orders readings we can attempt to understand the trend of consumer demand forward. ISM New Orders could be considered an additional gauge of consumer sentiment because if businesses are reporting increases in orders month...
Not too long ago, Gasoline prices rattled American car drivers with a price tag of USD 5 a gallon. And now, much to their delight, gasoline prices have eased to USD 3.50 a gallon. Slump in crude prices which influences gasoline has plunged by one-third over the last twelve months. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") trades around USD 70. Rattled US...
The Australian dollar has plunged on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6632, down 0.95% on the day. The Aussie is under strong downward pressure, having lost around 1.7% since Thursday. Australia releases inflation on a quarterly basis, which magnifies the impact of the release. Inflation has been falling and this trend is expected to continue in the Wednesday...
This is the same double bottom from yesterdays rushed idea. Thursday 10th and 11th saw a rise from 1706 to 1764. Consequently, due to strong bullish pressure i have changed the neckline from 1706 to 1800. This will be determined in the coming days, if price challenges 1800, with XAUUSD needing to fill in from fib line 0.236 to 0 (This is nearly 4500 pips which...
The Greatest Bubble in History is unwinding with fits and starts. Economic Conditions Globally - within the lower 3% Historically. Multiples for Equities - within the Highest 4% Historically in very Real Terms. Monetary & Fiscal Excess - The Greatest in History, bar none. 100% Assured: Reality is brought to bare with the Consumer who is being squeezed like a...
Like a bouncing ball on a downhill, equities have bounced hard after repeated selloffs but the general momentum remains downward. With Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims & Consumer Sentiments numbers coming out this week, markets are likely to be jittery. Any downside surprises could spur a sharp reaction downwards. The S&P 500...
Chart showing that Personal Income doesn't lead consumer sentiment Green is income. Red is sentiment.