The price her has been playing beautifully in this channel since 2016! No one know how long it will last, but I am playing the contrarian devil's advocate here as well. It looks like a pullback at least for now; we're in! Stop @ 23.52 Target @ 21.86
Price broke out in 2017 and is currently testing its high levels after the rally up! The stock is very volatile and It seems there is some weakness in the momentum it once carried. I'm going ahead to short this; let's see if the volatility plays out in my favor towards the downside. Sorry, I'm just a contrarian. Stop at 17.37 Target at 15.72
EURUSD is in an upward trend over the long-term, however 25-Jan-18 closed with a short price-action and placed a position on that basis. Possible error : "It's a bull market you know!" Yes, this saying rings true in this case and therefore I could be wrong and EURUSD won't drop that much, if at all. STOP: 1.2604 ENTRY : 1.2474 R1 : 1.2344 R2 :1.2214 R3 : 1.1974
CLF is a buy in my opinion but the price must close above the .786 fib retracement box I have placed in on the chart for a long position to be considered. Noted for a lagging share price to the industry, yet considered a great company with potential. To those trading the steel market, fundamentally the opinion is definitely swaying towards bullish for 2018. --US...
Today is generally a quite day. In term of price action thus far USD is most bearish vs AUD most bullish. The tier 1 event today however is with GBP. I do not think it is going to have huge impact but nevertheless the GBPCHF is very Net Long and looks like the market in general is expecting supportive GBP data. My analysis shows otherwise and I'd like to be there...
This is probably will be my 2nd trade of the day. I don't intend to put it on yet since I may give market too much room to go against me. The thesis is again based on my expectation that CAD data is bad vs the good expectation. It is however not a very significant data and it's isolated. If market has little reaction I'm not interested in holding it for...
FOMO at its peak right now makes it a good time to think outside the square... BTC at the top of the channel at point of resistance around 4600. RSI overbought. Money has shifted into BTC from Altcoins in a wave of fomo that spread across the globe with people trying to 'cash in' on the upcoming forks. But... The depleted altcoin market now presents a much...
The best trade today for me maybe this CAD play. I'd be quite early to put this on but I'd not be around to monitor it properly otherwise. I expect CAD's Data to beat but the market is generally short CAD. Most concentrated in AUDCAD and CADJPY. So I'd Long CADJPY now and Short AUDCAD..each with 1/2R. I will be out if I'm wrong on the data though. Also may take...
USD Analysis: - Positioning: Net Long, most in USDCHF, no pair is Net Short - Price action: Net Short at this point thus there is a disagreement between the Retail's position and the market's sentiment. USDCHF in particular is down. - Fundamental: I think the ADP data will be a Miss while ISM will be a Beat thus Neutralize each other Conclusion: ADP data miss...
I've realized that I've making too many trades lately and with increasing complication in my analysis. This trade is my attempt to go back to the core of being a contrarian, trying to find the most "pain" in the market and benefit from it. My game plan is now: first looking at retail's positioning that is the most extreme for the currency pair in focus,...
This is a small experiment trade where I isolated the Retail Positioning factor: Retail is extremely net Long AUDNZD and today is a non-event day for this pair so I'd like to bet against this. This is an experiment trade that I put on with 1/5 the usual risk.
I re-assess the EUR pairs heading into the Spain data release by benchmarking what the Retail Sentiment was relative to what the market was expecting and my conclusion is EURNZD is the one that is most overextended relative to the fundamental of the pair. It has been the best performer during Asia session and ever extend gain after bad data during UK session and I...
This is related to my EUR assessment earlier. Given the data was worse than expected, I think the EURUSD's rebound is over and I do expect people to be more confident adding to their Short now. The pair should go lower until the next risk event - Powell's speech.
This is not a significant event to trade on. Nevertheless, I would still put it on as a practice for my analysis. * Fundamental: The Spain data is expected to be Good, I expected it to be even better. * Positioning/Supply-Demand: EUR is Net Short, most heavily in EURNZD vs Net Long in EURGBP * Sentiment/Price Action: EUR is Net Long, most is EURNZD vs least is...
This is my first attempt to simultaneously trade "into" and "out of" data release. The thesis is on ISM PMI release later, which the USD expected to do badly. My game plan is I'd like to trade with the data expectation for now despite my calculated odd that the data will be good. Meaning I'll short USD and revert my position closer right before the data release....
Today is going to be a very slow day with little event to trade on. The most important news today is the UK and US' PMI number. Even though they are expected to be bad, my statistic shows it is a better odd for them to beat expectation. On the other hand, I think EUR will be negative although not by much. The sentiment for EUR, GBP and USD are: - EUR: Net...
My statistical studies shows that GBP hard data release today is likely to be dissapointed. CAD will also have somewhat dissapointed data in my opinion, however relatively it will have the smallest "dissapoinment gap" amongst the Majors. In addition, today we will have 2 speeches coming out from MPC Member Broadbent and the BOE Governor Carney, both of whom has...