USA stock market downtrand will begin at the end of May 2026?!📊 10-year US bonds: why the whole money market is watching them?
If we simplify it to the most important thing, the US 10Y Treasury Yield is the main “base” of the value of money in the world. This is not just a number for economists! This is the level on which depend: mortgages in the US, business loans, stock valuations (especially the tech sector), capital inflow/outflow from the stock market.
That is, in fact, the yield on these bonds is a “thermometer of fear and the value of money.”
The US 10-year note is not just a debt instrument.
This is the price of money in the world system. And while the market is arguing about Fed rates, there is actually one main question: “How much are investors asking for the risk of holding the dollar for 10 years?”
And the answer to it directly determines the fate of the stock market.
What is important to understand now:
In 2026, the market is in a zone of increased sensitivity: yields remain around 4–4.5%, inflation is still not completely “defeated” and there are prerequisites that it will grow. Government debt and emissions create pressure on the bond market, investors demand more return for risk
Historically, this is no longer “cheap money”, but a higher for longer regime.
Why does rising yields = pressure on stocks?
When bond yields rise: investors get a “risk-free alternative” -> money moves out of stocks and into bonds -> companies borrow money at a higher price -> companies' future profits are worth less -> stocks fall.
Particularly affected are technology companies, growth stocks, the entire Nasdaq IG:NASDAQ and of course Bitcoin COINBASE:BTCUSD (but in the long term these are the best assets)
⚠️ Main risk scenario: yield 6–8%
Now comes the most important part. If 10-year US bonds rise to the 6-8% zone, it will not just be a rise in rates - it will be a change in the financial regime!
What does this mean?
1. The collapse of stock revaluation
Valuation models (DCF) begin to “shrink” sharply.
even profitable companies become “expensive”, P/E multiples fall - the market is not ready to pay for future growth.
2. Pressure on mortgages and consumption
mortgages are becoming significantly more expensive, housing affordability is falling, and consumer demand is slowing
And in the USA, consumption = ~70% of the economy.
3. Impact on corporate debt
As profitability rises, refinancing becomes expensive, company margins fall, and the risk of default for weak and debt-ridden companies increases.
4. Flow of capital into bonds
If you have capital and can get 6-8% “almost without risk”: why hold stocks with high risk? This is the main psychological question of rich people.
📉 How does the stock market behave in such a scenario?
Historically, when yields rise sharply: index markets fall or enter a long correction, the Nasdaq suffers the most, volatility increases, money goes into bonds and the dollar
🛡️ Simply put, the market stops living in growth mode and goes into capital protection mode
🔮 Forecast:
Now the market is balancing between 3 forces: inflation (keeps yields high), expectations of rate cuts (presses yields down), huge government debt (structurally pushes up)
📌 Basic scenario:
Growth up to 5% + high volatility and periods of “fear” in the stock market
📌 Risk scenario:
A breakout of 5% immediately opens the way to 7+%, and this will trigger a strong revaluation of all assets, and this will very likely put pressure on the stock market and real estate.
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