I believe the stock market will correct in the next 2-3 weeks and then we should evaluate the opportunities emerging in the market! Crypto Market will not respond positively to more regulation! The stock market will not respond positively to increase rates or decrease inflation! Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by...
Let's be honest, the chances of congress not figuring out this debt ceiling problem are low, we should be positioning ourselves for the higher probability event. Disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor
Evergrande is something that most of you will have heard about lately, and if you haven’t… you should get the know about it. This has been one of the main causes of the latest sell off in markets. Its affecting all financial markets from the stock market to the crypto market right now. I want to explain why that’s the case and what impact it might have going...
Let's keep this simple. SPY on the four hour chart. One more day of consolidation will complete the right shoulder. Lower then average volume, to many bad bad super bad catalyst to not have this play out. Evergrande, debt ceiling, over leveraged banks, and hedge funds, housing bubble, inflation, fed tapering. Don't kid yourself.
We can see the effects of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy Failures during the 2006 - 2009 crisis. The blame was reported on you, good citizen consumer. The collapse of the housing market, fueled by low interest rates, easy credit, insufficient regulation, extensive leverage and Toxic subprime mortgages led to the economic crisis of 06-09. Does this sound...
*valuation matters Peak Everything is c/w Reddit Poggers #holdforbroke
Idea for 10Y Treasury Bond Yields: I speculate that yields cannot and will not rise significantly until the equity bubble pops. I think that it will start a wave reaching 0.7 this month. Why is that? - There is almost $300 trillion in private sector debt globally. - Companies used margin debt for share buybacks to boost EPS, creating the illusion of economic...
Calls for an increase in the DEBT ceiling without delay. Putting out the FIRE with Gasoline IS the solution. DO I hear $30 - $32 Trillion? GOLD appears to be struggling with Yellen's plaintiff wails.
Speculation for Macro: These are the underlying conditions: - Inflation expectations are what leads risk appetite. After all, who would hold or buy an asset expected to depreciate in value? - Global inflation expectations turning down and have been in a downtrend for decades. Of course it is deflationary. If DEBT fueled GDP growth (for appearances over...
This chart here shows Personal income, PCE, Corporate profits and Consumer credit securitized and outstanding. Here is your wealth gap. The urge for MOAR profit will be our undoing In my humble opinion.
I have been testing and researching a new strategy for a long while now and I wanted to make sure it worked before presenting, I hope you all enjoy. Without further ado, let's start off the day with tracking the core of the market. VIX, DXY, oil and debt. This is my market tracker. as you can see, oil looking good, VIX in a manipulated range, DXY looking about...
The printing clown show continues. On lookout for Hyper Inflation in scarcity plays (profit generators today not 10 years from now sillies). Those overvalued hyped names of the past decade will come down hard (no profits in sight for next decade). #investingainteasy #epiceconomics
Negative yields coming within 2026-2028 due to the high unserviceable debt, Central bank digital currencies not considered whilst building this Analysis.
corporate debt etf, mbb mortgage backed securities, and tlt treasuries all have similar price action. could the fear of inflation be hitting the debt markets and be the cause of future stocks sells offs as risk taking fades in both?
Bond have fallen a lot and quite fast. The sentiment is really stretched and most expect yields to rise more (bonds to fall lower). In my opinion there is quite a decent chance the bond bull market is over given that we had a massive blow off top in March 2020, but this doesn't mean that I don't see a potential bounce here or even bottom. Bonds hit key support,...
WMT flopped its fourth quarter earnings in 2020 announcing -.74 cents a share. I expect a report with a lot more strength with integration of E-commerce into it online store models as well as less fear surrounding COVID-19 creating boost in sales. With only 1% of shares floating short, The slow grind up, which has been evident since the middle of March, is likely...
SPY has been in a bit of a tricky situation lately, stuck between the debt expansion of the fed which is bullish, and the yield curve and DXY going up which is bearish for SPY. Until the Fed implements Yield Curve Control (which I believe they will do in the near future) SPY could keep correcting and this volatility will remain. The market wants more debt...
Disclaimer: This post will be heavy speculation - but let's have some fun. Let's play this fun game as a mental exercise. In no way is any of this financial advice, nor in any way political, nor does it even reflect my opinion. It is just a mental exercise. I fully admit that economics is not my background, so I will be taking a different approach to forecasting...