DOW JONES testing the last Support before confirmed Bear Cycle.Dow Jones (DJI) is testing its 1D MA150 (red trend-line), which historically within its 17-year Channel Up (that started since the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis) has been the level that when broken (closing a 1M candle below) it has kickstarted all major corrections (Bearish Legs).
Those corrections have essentially been the Bear Cycles of the pattern with all either hitting their 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous bottom or the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the market's natural multi-year Support. In some cases the corrections even hit both.
With the 1M RSI also turning overbought in the last two months (above 30.00) and now getting rejected, which was the signal that initiated the corrections of 2025 and 2022, we can expect Dow to pull-back to 40500 (Fib 0.382) to test its 1M MA50, in case it closes a monthly candle below the 1D MA150 now (which will be the sell confirmation signal).
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Dowsignals
DOW JONES Channel Down potentially targeting the 1D MA100.Dow Jones (DJI) has been correcting within a Channel Down since its February 10 High. Right now it is below all major 4H MA trend-lines. The 4H MA100 (green trend-line) is exactly on the Inner Lower Highs and as long as it holds, the index could target at least 48500.
A break below the bottom of the Channel Down, activates a Diverging Lower Lows trend-line that could target the natural long-term Support level of the market, the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) at 48150.
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DOW JONES The 6-year Channel Up made a macro Top.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 6-year Channel Up since the February 2020 collapse of the COVID crash. It has already completed a +39% rally from the April 2025 Low on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), similar to the +39% rally before.
At the same time the 1W RSI has been trading sideways since late September 2025, while the 1W MACD just formed a Bearish Cross. Both these are consistent with previous market Tops / Higher Highs within this Channel Up.
The last two major corrections (Bearish Legs) that followed after such Higher High, both hit either their 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level or the 1W MA200. The signal that confirmed the correction's start was given when a 1W candle got closed below the 1D MA150 (red trend-line).
As a result, if that takes place again, we expect Dow to pull-back to at least 43550 (Fib 0.5) and if it goes for a full correction like the -19.50% drop of Feb - April 2025 on the 1W MA200, even hit 41000.
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DOW JONES 9-month Channel Up is still holding.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 9-month Channel Up and is currently on its latest Bullish Leg following a 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) bounce. The last two Bullish Legs peaked just below the -0.382 Fibonacci extension. The strongest Sell Signal was given however by the 1D RSI when it hit its long-term Resistance Zone.
When that happens again, we expect the index to be around 51000, we will have another short-term Sell Signal, targeting at least the 1D MA50 at 49400.
On the long-term, only a break and 1D candle closing below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) can technically invalidate this bullish pattern.
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DOW JONES giving a strong Sell Signal at the top.Dow Jones (DJI) has been consolidating for exactly the past 1 month, ranging within Resistance 1 and the Support Zone, with the current rebound coming off its 1D MA50 (grey trend-line) as well.
The 4H RSI is testing its Lower Highs trend-line and every time the index touched it, we had a strong Sell Signal. As a result, we turn bearish here yet again on the short-term, targeting 48400.
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DOW JONES bearish short-term as long as this Resistance holds.Dow Jones (DJI) got rejected last week below the 1-month Resistance and that formed a Lower High on the 1H time-frame, establishing a Channel Down.
It appears that we are in the process of repeating a Bearish Leg highly symmetrical to the previous one. So far we have completed a -1.80% Stage 1 decline and after a rebound, the price dropped again below the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line) in a similar way as January 18-19. Observe how even the 1H RSI sequences between the two fractals are identical.
As long as this holds as Resistance, we expect Stage 2 of the Bearish Leg to hit the bottom of the Channel Down on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (as the previous Bearish Leg) at 48250.
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DOW JONES broke below its 4H MA200 after 2 months!Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up for almost 9 months and 2 weeks ago (January 07, see chart below) we gave a strong Sell Signal on its Top:
Yesterday the price broke below its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 2 months and this confirms the extension of the current Bearish Leg. We slightly modify our Target on the 47800 Support exactly, which is almost a -4.00% decline from the Top and will also test the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), which is the long-term Support of the pattern.
The 36.50 1D RSI Support is where the last two Channel Up bottoms where priced, so keep an eye on that too.
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DOW JONES in synch with the USD to start a massive correction.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 17-year Channel Up ever since the bottom of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis. This is not the first time we give you this pattern, so I won't be getting into too much detail on its specifics.
What we do combine it with for the first time though, is the DXY (black trend-line), which has also been trading within a Channel Up since 2008, a direct consequence of the monetary policies that were applied globally by central banks to save the system following that credit-shock event.
What this cross symbol comparison offers, is give a clear unbiased illustration of the patterns and correlation involved between the stock market and DXY (U.S. Dollar Index). Most times that the DXY bottoms (green circles), Dow peaks its Bull Cycle and starts a correction (Bear Cycle, as shown in red). All of Dow's Bear Cycles have either pulled back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level or the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) or even both.
As a result, we estimate Dow to target 40000 by the time one of the above takes place, which can coincide with the DXY hitting the top of its inner Channel Down, similar to what it did during the previous two such smaller patterns within the main 17-year Channel Up.
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DOW JONES Strongest sell signal in 2 months.Last week (see chart below) we gave a buy signal on Dow Jones (DJI), which easily hit our 48650 short-term Target, as the price found support inside a tight Triangle pattern:
This time, a strong sell opportunity is emerging (in fact strongest in two months) as we move to the longer 1D time-frame, where Dow has been trading within an 8-month Channel Up that is very close to its top (Higher Highs trend-line).
The 1D RSI however is already touching its multi-month Resistance Zone, which makes it a prime Sell Signal already as the last time it was there was almost 2 months ago (November 12 2025). What followed this was a strong -5.59% technical pull-back that found support exactly on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at the bottom of the Channel Up.
Basically, the current Bullish Leg has also just completed a +8.59 rise, which is the most a Bullish Leg has grown within this pattern. And since a -4.00% correction has been the usual decline on all corrections also, we expect Dow to hit the 47900 - 47600 Target Zone, consisting of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA100 respectively, with Support 1 in between.
Keep an eye also on the 1D RSI Support Zone. If it gets hit before any of those targets, it will be a good idea to take the profit on the shorts then, regardless of the price.
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DOW JONES Triangle started a Bullish Leg.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Triangle pattern on the short-term, with the price making a Higher Low on Wednesday on its bottom. With the 4H RSI rebounding just after it breached below the 30.00 oversold barrier, we expect the pattern to start its new Bullish Leg now.
A +1.30% rise to test its top (Lower Highs trend-line), would still be a minimum based on all the Bullish Legs that preceded. As a result, our short-term Target (unless the 4H MA50 rejects the uptrend) is 48650.
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DOW JONES headed towards a rejection.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a nearly 8-month Channel Up and is close to its All Time High (ATH) after rebounding last week on its 4H MA100 (green trend-line).
This pattern is cyclical and every time the latter support broke after a medium-term rally from its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the index got rejected on a Higher Highs trend-line and corrected back to the 1D MA50. Even the 1D MACD is printing a sequence similar to June - July.
As a result, we expect the new year to find Dow on its 1.382 Fibonacci extension at 47400 at least, which is the Fib level that every such correction pulled back to.
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DOW JONES Multi-month Bear Cycle to 40000 starting.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 16-year Channel Up since the 2008 Housing Crisis and approximately every 3.5 years (44 months) it tops and starts a technical correction/ Bearish Leg.
All of those Bear Cycles essentially since October 2011 have eventually pulled-back to the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) at roughly he 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Only once time the 1M MA50 broke significantly and that was in March 2020 during the COVID flash crash, which eventually found Support on the 1M MA100 (green trend-line).
As a result, we expect Dow to start its Bear Cycle in 2026. From the current high the 0.382 Fib stands at exactly 40000, which based on its trajectory is where the 1M MA50 is headed by Q3 2026.
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DOW JONES Is it starting a new Bear Cycle towards 40800?Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 4-year Channel Up since the start of the 2022 Inflation Crisis. One month ago it hit the top of this pattern and hasn't made a new High since.
This is increasingly alarming as the 1W RSI is on a Bearish Divergence under Lower Highs against the market's Higher Highs. Every time this took place within this pattern, the index corrected heavily and attempted a 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) test.
As a result, if Dow fails to make a new High, we expect the bearish sentiment to intensify and start a new Bear Cycle (Bearish Leg for the Channel Up) towards its 1W MA200 and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which was the Target of the previous correction. Based on that it is possible for the index to hit 40800 at the bottom of the Channel Up.
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DOW JONES formed its first 4H Golden Cross since August. BullishDow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 6-month Channel Up and today it formed its first 4H Golden Cross since August 15. Coming off a Higher Low bottom 2 weeks ago on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), we are currently on the new Bullish Leg of the pattern.
The last one rose by +7.26%, roughly the % amount of the previous two as well, so our immediate Target remains 49000 as we've shown on last weeks analysis.
This time we also see an over-extended Target if the end-of-year rally lasts a bit longer, on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension at 49500, as this level has been hit on every Bullish Leg of this pattern.
If the 1D RSI though hits its Lower Highs Zone (red) earlier, it might be a good idea technically to book profits before those Targets are reached.
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DOW JONES Inverse Head and Shoulders formed. Bullish.Last week (November 19, see chart below), we caught the very bottom of the 6-month Channel Up on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) of Dow Jones (DJI):
This time we view the price action using the 4H time-frame, where we can see that an Inverse Head and Shoulders has been formed, with its Head being the 1D MA100 bottom.
If more aggressive, it may not follow the typical green Bullish Leg of the Channel Up but the Target remains almost the same at 48900. That is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Typically we should see the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) turning into the Support until the very top.
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DOW JONES Will the 1D MA100 save the day?Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 6-month Channel Up and in the past 4 days it has been correcting on its latest Bearish Leg. By doing so, it broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is approaching the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) right at the bottom of the pattern.
This is the Channel's last Support. As long as it closes the daily candles above it, we will be bullish on Dow, targeting 49000, which represents a +7.25% rise, something all previous 3 Bullish Legs did.
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DOW JONES to new All Time Highs and won't stop there!Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within an aggressive Channel Up since October 03, which made today a new All Time High (ATH). This is its technical Bullish Leg following the Higher Low bottom near the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
With a 4H MACD sequence identical to the previous Leg, it is possible to see a re-test of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) next but on the medium-term, a new Higher High of at least 48800 (the 1.5 Fibonacci extension as on the previous Bullish Leg) is expected.
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DOW JONES recovered and is looking for a High at 48500.Exactly 2 weeks ago (October 22, see chart below), we gave a strong Buy Signal on Dow Jones (DJI), as the index had already initiated the new Bullish Leg of its 6-month Channel Up and quickly hit our 47700 Target:
That trading plan included a 2nd Target as well at 48500, which represented a +7.50% rise from the October 10 Low, which was a Higher Low for the Channel Up on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As Target 1 was on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, the recent pull-back was technically expected as the sequence was similar to those of August 22 - September 02 among others. As you can see, all minor pull-backs that took place within this Channel Up, hit the 4H MA100 (red trend-line) and rebounded. Major ones found support lower on the 1D MA50, as did the October 10 Low.
Since the index hit yesterday its 4H MA100 and is rebounding today, the Bullish Leg remains valid and on the medium-term can reach our final 48500 Target.
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DOW JONES approaching the end of its Bull Cycle?Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 16-year Channel Up ever sine the March 02 2009 market bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. As this chart shows, we have divided this pattern into three different phases.
Since the March 2020 COVID crash, it appears that the Cycle got restarted as the index broke below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) again after 10 years. Technically that was the only time that multi-year Support trend-line broke in 15 years.
In any case, following that Cycle 'restart', it appears that the index is currently inside the Megaphone pattern that in 2015 concluded Phase 2. The conclusion came with a second test on the 1W MA200 (Double Bottom). The first test was the April 07 2025 Low.
With their 1W RSI sequences also identical, having the first 1W MA200 forcing a 30.00 (oversold) RSI rebound, we expect the index to start a new Bearish Leg that might potentially test the 1W MA200 around 39000. For long-term investors, that is the market's next Buy Entry.
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DOW JONES eyes two Bullish Targets before the end of the year.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 5-month Channel Up and is currently on its new Bullish Leg following the October 10 bounce on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As you can see, there is a high degree of symmetry between both the Bearish and Bullish Legs within this pattern and if that continues to hold, the immediate Target of the current Bullish Leg is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension at 47700, which we've already mentioned on our previous analysis.
This time however, we also set a second Target towards the end of the year, being a +7.50% rise (standard Leg as you can see) from the bottom at 48500. Both Targets would make ideal technical Higher Highs for the Channel Up.
Notice also how the October 10 bounce took place also on the 1D RSI's Lower Lows trend-line. An additional indication of a strong support for the long-term bullish trend.
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DOW JONES bounced at the bottom of the Channel Up. Buy signal.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 3-month Channel Up, with last Friday's flash crash breaching marginally below its 1D MA50 (red trend-line). That touched the bottom of the pattern and is technically a Higher Low, identical to the what the previous Bearish Leg did on the August 01 Low.
As you can see both Legs declined by -4.00% with their 4H RSIs touching the -20.00 level and rebounded. That is a technical Buy Signal, the strongest you can get within this Channel Up, and as long as the pattern's bottom holds, we expect another rise to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (Our Target is 47700), similar to August's Bullish Leg.
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DOW JONES waiting for a rebound on its 4H MA50.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us last week (October 01, see chart below) an excellent Buy Signal on its 4H MA100 (green trend-line) that almost instantly hit our 47000 Target:
This time it is the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) that is providing the new buy opportunity as following the 47000 Higher High of the Bullish Leg, the index pulled-back on a Bearish Leg.
As you can see, the symmetry within this pattern remains high with all three Bullish Legs so far rising by around +2.75% and the 4 MA50 / 4H MA100 providing support for the Bearish Legs.
As a result, we expect a new short-term rebound, as long as the 4H MA50 holds, targeting the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at 47180.
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DOW JONES Can the 4H MA100 initiate a comeback??Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 2-month Channel Up and today touched its 4H MA100 (green trend-line) for a second time after September 25.
Both in terms of price and 4H RSI action, this sequence is similar to the September 02 rebound fractal, which also following a Bull Flag, it touched the 4H MA100 for a 2nd time and then moved on to a rally that peaked on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
The 1.5 Fib ext also priced the Higher High of the first Bullish Leg of the pattern, thus offers currently the highest probability for our next Higher High. Our long Target is slightly below it at 47000, representing a +2.80% rise from the recent Low.
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