Following the stimulus news this week, there is a lot of talk around the USD and whether it will rise or fall as a result of the rescue package. I decided that it may be the perfect time to look at the (much) larger picture to see where we stand. This is a simple study on the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) on the 1M time-frame, representing its Cycles in the span of...
As I expected, DXY broke above short term wedge resistance and reached my first target.
Now the index looks determined to continue its upward correction and 92 could be the target for such a correction.
In my opinion rallies in EurUsd, NzdUsd, AudUsd should be sold, and also a buy trade for UsdCad could be a good choice
This is a simple yet very informative study showing a comparison of Dow Jones against DXY (U.S. Dollar Index).
Since early 2015 the DXY has been ranging (wide range but still range) and especially after 2017 it established a clear Resistance (103.800 - 103.000) and Support (88.200 - 88.900) Zone. Every time it hit the Resistance and got rejected (Jan 2017, March...
The U.S. Dollar index is consolidating for the past 2 days within the MA50 and MA200 on the 4H time-frame (chart on the left). The RSI is indicating that such consolidating, within a Triangle pattern, is similar to the December 22-25 sequence, which after it broke ended lower with a new Lower Low on the long-term Channel Down pattern that DXY is in since late...
What is clear is that USD is weak but also is clear that the market can't be unidirectional indefinitely.
Usd counterparts started the year strong but the new highs (and new lows for the index) are marginal and lacking power. So far all that USD could do was to have some intraday correction and I think this is about to change and we will have a lasting...
I was pretty bearish USD till now and I wasn't disappointed by now and although in the long run I maintain my bearish outlook on DXY, at this point a drastic correction can be just around the corner.
With DXY approaching a strong support and old congestion zone around 89, I think Dollar bears should be very careful.
From the risk point of view also I can't see a...
A great volatility day for USD Index yesterday and, after opening with a gap up, the index fell in the afternoon and from a technical point of view, just filled the gap.
Now it seems like we have a strong base on 90 and slightly under and I expect a correction to follow.
Pairs that I have in focus for selling are EurUsd, NzdUsd and AudUsd
As I said before, I'm very bearish USD, and till now things worked that way.
Now, after breaking down the flag formation, we have another important break for USD index: the horizontal support and previous low.
In my opinion rallies on USD should be sold and we can soon have new local highs for EurUsd, AudUsd, GbpUsd and NzdUsd
Last week I said that I expect a new low from USD Index and my opinion doesn't change.
After a short-lived rebound from 90.60 support, DXY opened last night with a gap and dropped again, not being able at least to close the hole gap.
This tells me that a break under the support area could be just around the corner and DXY can have a new leg down even under 90...
AS we can see $ is still weak and its @risk ON ending of years and much more fundamentally
so after this small retrace we expected more drop from this area if not see any strong breakout
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Two weeks ago I said that I expect 92 support to fall , and now we have this break, and Dollar index is trading at 90.65 at the time of writing. More important is that DXY is now just above another support situated at 90.50.
If we look closely at the chart we can see that after finding support at 90.50, USD Index made a short term double bottom that I've spoken...
Pattern: Channel Down on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price is approaching the 4H MA50, which has been rejecting every upside attempt since November 04. Also the RSI is at the top of its Channel Down and the MACD is repeating the November 10 - 13 sequence.
Target: 90.100 (-1.30% as per the November fractal).
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