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QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPJPY, D, Short ,
GBPJPY: SELL GBPJPY: RISK-OFF SHIFT COMING? LOWER BOE MONPOL EQUILIBRIUM
388 4 15
GBPJPY, D Short
SELL GBPJPY: RISK-OFF SHIFT COMING? LOWER BOE MONPOL EQUILIBRIUM

GBPJPY: 1. Given Fed Yellen's "hawkish" market response and GBPUSD, GBPNZD and GBPAUD shorts TPd on the rally lower today cleared (FX risk book clear too), im looking to add some safe haven assets to my portfolio. 2. Looking at GBPJPY and GBP structures on the whole, there has been alot of sterling longs in the past 2wks accumulating in spot as economic ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading NZDUSD, W, Long ,
NZDUSD: NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: RBNZ GOV WHEELER SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
203 1 12
NZDUSD, W Long
NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: RBNZ GOV WHEELER SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS

Governor of the RBNZ Wheeler offered little bearish pressure on kiwi, refusing to go into any intervention talk and failing to say what the bank will actually use to tame this deflationaire NZD they are experiencing at the moment - with the comments below in mind imo this leaves on direction for Kiwi (short of some FOMC/ USD bullish pressure which seems unlikely ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading NZDUSD, D,
NZDUSD: NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS
259 0 11
NZDUSD, D
NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS

Relatively poor delivery from the RBNZ, by the looks of the whipsaw the market wanted/ expected 50bps based on the AUD differential and the RBA rate cut last week 50bps or some alt policy (e.g. QE) seemed like the smart move to make. From here Kiwi and Aussie longs look preferential as the macro environment shifts to a yield seeking stance from monpol trading - ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD/ GBPJPY: BOE POLICY DECISION & CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
265 4 15
GBPUSD, D Short
GBPUSD/ GBPJPY: BOE POLICY DECISION & CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS

BOE's policy decision and QIR was largely inline with expectations, perhaps even 10bn better than expected on the QE side - and was very forgiving with hints towards further interest easing, though the stubborn unwillingness to realise negative rates undermined this to some extent. GBPJPY and GBPUSD shorts traded into intermediate TP levels - with GBPJPY ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: SHORT GBPUSD/ GBPJPY: BOE EXPECTATIONS & FORECAST - FADE RALLIES
683 3 23
GBPUSD, D Short
SHORT GBPUSD/ GBPJPY: BOE EXPECTATIONS & FORECAST - FADE RALLIES

imo sterling strength/ USD weakness has opened up a great opp to get short vs the USD. Also, technically £YEN looks like it has some 400pips of downside in it available if the BOE do ease and weaken the currency (130.5). Shorting GBP$ at 1.33 opens up 250pips of easy downside profit assume the BOE deliver 25bps and 50bn of QE (the consensus) - £Yen at 1.35 opens ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading AUDUSD, D, Short ,
AUDUSD: SHORT AUDUSD: RBA INTEREST RATE DECISION - CUT 25BPS TO 1.50%
335 12 15
AUDUSD, D Short
SHORT AUDUSD: RBA INTEREST RATE DECISION - CUT 25BPS TO 1.50%

RBA Cut the Cash rate to 1.50% by 25bps, the market has had a very subdued reaction though, barely falling 30pips from market. I still think there should be more downside here and into the mid/low 74xx before the full fade comes in - so luckily room for retails to get in, looks like the algos were having a day off today. This is positive for any kiwi$ short ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURCHF, 120, Long ,
EURCHF: LONG EURCHF: POSSIBLE SNB INTERVENTION AT THE 1.08 HANDLE
172 7 11
EURCHF, 120 Long
LONG EURCHF: POSSIBLE SNB INTERVENTION AT THE 1.08 HANDLE

Long EURCHF: 1. Having watched the 1.08 level closely post-brexit it certainly looks as if there is some FX intervention going on at the 1.08 handle - suspicions enforced even more as SNB President Jordan says FX intervention is on the cards should CHF move even higher/ Rate cut possible another 50bps. 2. Plus EUR vs CHF september rate expectations are skewed ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading DXY, D, Long ,
DXY: BUY USD DIPS VS GBP/ NZD: DOVISH FED W. DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
125 5 8
DXY, D Long
BUY USD DIPS VS GBP/ NZD: DOVISH FED W. DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS

Fed Dudley was speaking At A joint New York Fed, Indonesian Central Bank Seminar On Sunday evening when he left a mixed impression for the markets to digest - saying "it is premature to rule out an interest-rate increase this year" but then on the contrary saying "Raising Rates Prematurely Would Be Riskier Than Moving Slightly Too Late" and following up that ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading SPX, D, Short ,
SPX: SPX: BOJ MISS = BULL RUN END +2% + 2016 SAFE HAVEN TREND RESUMES
597 6 17
SPX, D Short
SPX: BOJ MISS = BULL RUN END +2% + 2016 SAFE HAVEN TREND RESUMES

End of the bull run Global Equity Indexes: 1. SPX/ Global Equity indexes in the past 2/3wks saw a post-brexit central bank easing induced rally, as many CB released dovish statements following the vote which spurred investor confidence in fresh easing. - IMO much of the bull run was based on BOJ easing hopes, given the size of the economy (4th largest) stimulus ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPJPY, D, Short ,
GBPJPY: GBPJPY: BOJ MISS; BOE HIT? MORE SELLING ON THE HORIZON
433 11 12
GBPJPY, D Short
GBPJPY: BOJ MISS; BOE HIT? MORE SELLING ON THE HORIZON

BOJ Miss: 1. BOJ deliver one of the biggest misses in history (vs expectations/ pressure) - only increasing ETF purchases and dollar funding by apprx $60bn annual in total vs 10-20bps of Depo and LSP cuts + 5-20trn in QE increase + ETF increase. *See attached post for in-depth detail on the BOJ situation and price action history/ Yen strength/ Safe havens* BOJ ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Short ,
USDJPY: USDJPY - BOJ MISS; FISCAL STIM PACKAGE & TRADING YEN FROM HERE
727 14 20
USDJPY, D Short
USDJPY - BOJ MISS; FISCAL STIM PACKAGE & TRADING YEN FROM HERE

BOJ - 3trn increase in annual ETF Purchases + $24bn increase in USD funding for banks 1. The BOJ on Friday delivered a shockingly poor package, imo they changed the snallest part of their current QQE programme. 2. What was interesting though was the markets reaction - immediately after the decision $Yen spiked higher then lower to 103 level but from then and ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D,
USDJPY: USDJPY/ GBPJPY: BUY $YEN IF DATA MISSES; SELL £YEN IF DATA HITS
364 3 13
USDJPY, D
USDJPY/ GBPJPY: BUY $YEN IF DATA MISSES; SELL £YEN IF DATA HITS

The Risky BOJ front run trade using CPI inferences - I find it very interesting that the BOJ is releasing ALL of its key economic data (minus GDP) before making the easing decision, especially as we have already had CPI data this month so we will have an 2 CPI releases in one month which ive never seen happen before (CPI from JPY is usually due next week). - ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD: STERLING STRENGTH MYTH? ARITCLE 50 ODDS - 50% NOT HAPPEN
338 5 13
GBPUSD, D
GBPUSD: STERLING STRENGTH MYTH? ARITCLE 50 ODDS - 50% NOT HAPPEN

Mysterious sterling strength: 1. Sterling has managed to par losses and actually rise in past days despite a number of heavily weighted factors increasing GBP downside pressure e.g. MPC M. Weale switching to the doves, PMI/ Business Optimism 8yr lows, Sterling rates markets consistently pricing >25bps of cuts to the BOE base rate (details below), the median bank ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: LONG USDJPY: ANOTHER BOJ OUTPERFORM CASE - 28TRN GOVT STIMULUS
403 11 11
USDJPY, D Long
LONG USDJPY: ANOTHER BOJ OUTPERFORM CASE - 28TRN GOVT STIMULUS

Another argument for the BOJ outperform case - Post BOJ Buy $Yen @MRKT 111tp: 1. We know BOJ and JPY Govt Abe/ Aso have had many meetings post-brexit and as it follows the JPY Govt have announced today that they will deliver a fiscal stimulus package of 28trn - which was to the very right of the curve (10-30 was talked about). - This in mind, imo it is rational ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading AUDUSD, D, Short ,
AUDUSD: SHORT AUDUSD: EYEING CPI PRINT - SELL 1.0%YOY, 0.3%Q; RBA EASING
183 0 8
AUDUSD, D Short
SHORT AUDUSD: EYEING CPI PRINT - SELL 1.0%YOY, 0.3%Q; RBA EASING

AM 2:30GMT Ausssie Inflation prints are released these are key for determining their August Policy Decision 1. IMO a 1.0%yoy CPI print shows a further 0.3% contraction in their yearly CPI, this should be sufficient to push the RBA to cutting their OCR by 25bps, similarly a 0.3%qoq CPI will be needed in conjunction to show that inflation is growing at a slow ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D,
USDJPY: USDJPY: BOJ - FINAL THOUGHTS; FUNDAMENTAL/ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
549 6 15
USDJPY, D
USDJPY: BOJ - FINAL THOUGHTS; FUNDAMENTAL/ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

At market price: 1. At 104 $yen offers an attractive buy and sell side - from the position of not knowing what the BOJ will do.. - I dont think that this pull-back to 104 is a material shift in risk-sentiment, rather i think this is a technical sell-off where the 107 pivot was hit (as highlighted) at which point BOJ/ UJ bulls lost confidence on their long ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPJPY, D,
GBPJPY: BOJ EXPECTATIONS: EXCEED/ HIT - LONG USDJPY; MISS - SHORT GBPJPY
347 11 8
GBPJPY, D
BOJ EXPECTATIONS: EXCEED/ HIT - LONG USDJPY; MISS - SHORT GBPJPY

BOJ Miss - Sell GBPJPY @Market price; 129tp1 - up to 800pips. 1. A BOJ miss can be considered as delivering the median expectations e.g. 10bps cut to the depo (-0.2%), 10bps cut to the LSP (-0.1%), Yen10trn increase in monthly JGB purchases & 50% Increase in Annual ETF purchases e.g. 3.3trn-5trn. Fiscal Stimulus Yen10-15trn. - The package above or less should be ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURCHF, D, Long ,
EURCHF: EURCHF: SNB JORDAN - EYE & BUY 1.05/8, 80% SEPT CUT, STRONG CHF
192 0 8
EURCHF, D Long
EURCHF: SNB JORDAN - EYE & BUY 1.05/8, 80% SEPT CUT, STRONG CHF

SNB President T. Jordan comment highlights: - If Needed, Can Cut Rates Further - 50bps to 1.25% possible until negative rates turn less effective - €˜Big Concern€™ Over Significantly Overvalued CHF in 2016 risk-off dominated year - CHF 3m Libor prices 80% chance of a 25bps cut (-0.75 to -1.00%) within 3 months (was only 40% before brexit) - Low bond yields not ...

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