XAUUSD: Buyers Defend $4,040 — Targeting $4,140 ResistanceHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup.
Market Analysis
XAUUSD has recently confirmed a bullish structure after bouncing strongly from the $4,000–$4,040 Support Zone, an area that coincides with the ascending Trend Line visible on the chart.
This level has repeatedly acted as a Buyer Zone, where multiple fake breakouts occurred — signaling liquidity sweeps and failure of sellers to maintain downward momentum. Each test of this support has been followed by a sharp bullish reaction, confirming strong demand and accumulation activity in this zone.
Currently, Gold is showing a controlled recovery phase, moving above the $4,040 Support and gradually approaching the $4,120–$4,160 Resistance Zone, which also aligns with the Trend Line extension and previous consolidation area. This zone represents the next critical reaction level for price. A confirmed breakout above it could open the way toward further continuation, while a rejection may lead to a corrective pullback back toward the $4,040 support. The recent price behavior — including several fake breakouts followed by strong recoveries — suggests that large buyers remain active, defending the bullish structure. As long as price holds above $4,040, the overall sentiment stays constructive and favors a gradual continuation toward the upper resistance levels.
My Scenario & Strategy
As long as XAUUSD remains above the $4,000–$4,040 Support Zone, the bullish bias remains valid.The next upside objective is located around $4,140–$4,160, where sellers may reappear based on past reactions. I expect the market to potentially form a small pullback before resuming its move higher. A sustained breakout and close above $4,160 would confirm a continuation toward $4,200 and possibly higher in the medium term.
However, if Gold breaks below $4,000, this bullish setup becomes invalid, and the price may return toward deeper support levels near $3,960–$3,940 before any new buying interest develops.For now, the structure supports buying pullbacks while the price stays above key support.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Community ideas
EUR/USD Loses Momentum – Sellers Take Back Control!The market is beginning to show clear signs: the U.S. dollar is regaining strength , while EUR/USD faces strong correction pressure after a short-lived recovery. The latest news from the U.S. indicates that sentiment is shifting in favor of the greenback, as expectations for a government reopening and improving economic stability are boosting confidence in the USD.
On the 4H chart, EUR/USD remains in a long-term descending channel , with every pullback to resistance quickly rejected. Recently, price reacted to the upper boundary of the channel around 1.1580, forming a clear rejection signal.
If price fails to break above this zone, the bearish scenario will likely dominate, targeting the 1.1470 support area — a key confluence zone aligning with previous lows and the lower trendline. Sellers may look to add positions on minor retracements as the overall bearish structure remains intact.
In summary, with fundamentals supporting a stronger USD and technical patterns confirming a bearish setup , EUR/USD is expected to stay under downside pressure in the short term — unless a decisive breakout above 1.1580 occurs.
Improving My Win Loss Ratio In Forex TradingWell, Some good news, actually great news. The experiment worked and in this video I show how I am improving my win loss ratio in Forex trading.
From a disastrous Win Loss ratio using only SMC now with combining the classical school along with the Stochastic I have been nailing it for the past 20 days with 22 trades and 8.6% increase on my balance.
In many cases, especially with advantageous RRR, it is Ok to have the win loss ratio in favor of the Loss, as the RRR will compensate and the balance would increase, but in this case I have the win rate higher and the RRR if it was calculated is also higher.
I depend on opening multiple trades and closing them all at once once they hit an acceptable percentage. In the video I said I will close them around 2%, but to tell you the truth, even if it was 1% I would close because no business I know of would bring 1% profit in a day.
The concern now with this Forex Trading Plan is that it does not use Stop Loss nor Take Profit. I feel that I am hanging in the air, which is not a good feeling and this might get me inside an emotional imbalance in the long run.
Still, the test is going on to evaluate all that.
How to Trade the Double Top Pattern Like a ProHow to Trade the Double Top Pattern Like a Pro
The Double Top is one of the most reliable patterns in technical analysis. It often marks the beginning of a resistance zone and signals that bullish momentum is losing strength.
The first top is hard to anticipate, it’s usually just a continuation of the existing rally. But when the second top fails to break above the previous high, that’s when things get interesting . This failure creates a resistance level, and it’s the first warning sign that buyers may be running out of steam.
🔵 Why Do Double Tops Form?
There are usually two main reasons why a Double Top appears:
Profit-taking after a strong rally.Bulls start to lock in profits, causing the momentum to fade.
Lack of new buyers . Demand weakens, and bears begin to take control gradually.
Learning to tell which case you’re facing can help you decide whether it’s a great buying opportunity during a healthy pullback, or a signal to take profits, or even go short .
🧭 Step 1: How to Identify a Real Double Top
Before trading it, make sure it’s a true Double Top:
- Both peaks must form after a strong upward move . If the market was falling before, it’s not a classic pattern.
- The two tops should be at almost the same price level (no more than a 0.5% difference).
- The most important part is the neckline , the lowest point between the two tops.
That neckline defines whether the move is just a healthy pullback or the beginning of a new downtrend.
If the neckline doesn’t break, there is no Double Top yet.
The pattern is only confirmed after the neckline breaks downward.
💥 Step 2: Trading the Pattern
There are three main scenarios to understand:
1️⃣ A Confirmed Double Top (Breaks Down)
When the neckline breaks, the market often drops about 61.8% of the pattern’s height, with a probability above 70%.
A small pullback to retest the neckline is possible, but usually, the price won’t return to the previous highs.
A Double Top is spotted:
The neckline is broken:
A decline happens sharply:
2️⃣ A Fake Double Top (Break Fails)
If the price fails to break the neckline and instead makes new highs, it’s not a real Double Top.
This typically means we’re in a profit-taking phase, not a trend reversal.
In these cases, it’s often best to stay out, as the market tends to move sideways or show mixed signals.
A spotted double Top:
Fails to break down, instead breaks up:
The rally unfolds:
3️⃣ A Double Top Trap in a Strong Bull Market
Sometimes, a small break below the neckline triggers stops before the price explodes higher again.
These are common during powerful bull runs.
A spotted double Top:
The neckline is broken:
Inmediately the price reverse and break upwards.
The price rallies:
💲 Real Double Tops:
Theory is simportant, but let's go real!
A Double Top is now unfolding in Microsoft , and as you can see the neckline is almost there! Is this a signal? Wil a fake breakout occur? Are we witnesing the end of AI rally?
And some previous Double Tops:
❗ A final recommendation
Tradingview offers a great indicato r to Spot Double Top patterns easily.
Once you are in a chart, click on indicators and search Double Top Chart Pattern indicator. It's only for paid users and works fine!
Take a look how it spots the Double Top pattern and also gives you and idea of the posible target price!
Or the current one in NASDAQ:MSFT
In short:
Double Tops work roughly 70% of the time , but context matters.
They perform best in sideways or slowing markets, and are less reliable in strong rallies , where false breaks can easily trap traders.
Always confirm the neckline break, watch for volume, and never forget:
A pattern is just a probability, not a guarantee.
People Panic (again) as bitcoin returns to support (again)Bitcoin has been channeling up for about a year pretty consistently. The basic technical supports are still working. Price hits the weekly Bollinger band bottom, wicks through, builds structure and reverses to a new high. Price has also been bouncing off the top of the weekly gaussian channel. That's very optimistic as well.
So, these ideas main point is the "Trend is your friend until the end." What has really changed? Global liquidity is still going up. The various fiat currencies are being debased. Anti-fiat hedges like silver and gold are making all-time highs.
In a bull market you buy the dip and sell the rip. This is the dip. The rip is over 70% away at $175k. None of this means get reckless. We still have trendlines on lower time frames and lots of potential chop that can occur. There isn't a clear reversal pattern yet. BTC could make a inverted head and shoulders, a double bottom, all sorts of potential nonsense.
And lets be upfront, the channel could break down. Price could go from the top of the Gaussian channel to the bottom, etc. But so far my bias is continuation. Entries are going to be sought out on the daily and 3 day charts. Alts showed a lot of strength recently.
Others.d/bitcoin looks very bullish here at support. I expect it to chop up the next year quite well.
Others/eth has a double bottom.
Bitcoin is stabilized. Alts are basing out against bitcoin and eth. Finally. This is a great time to go long. Have a strategy. Layer a portfolio. All that stuff I can't actually advise you to do because I am not a financial advisor. I just share why I'm personally going long on crypto.
Gold at Its Golden SupportThe daily chart of GOLD shows that after a strong rally from around $3,200, the price has now pulled back toward the 50-day moving average (around $3,860) — a level that has repeatedly acted as a key support over the past several months, sparking multiple upward waves each time.
Short-Term Outlook (next few days to weeks):
In the short term, the $3,850–$3,880 zone is a crucial support area. If gold holds this level and closes above $4,050, a new bullish wave toward $4,250–$4,380 could begin.
However, a confirmed break below $3,850 could trigger a deeper correction toward $3,600 or even $3,400.
• Bullish short-term target: $4,250–$4,380
• Bullish stop loss: Below $3,840
• Bearish short-term target: $3,600–$3,400
• Bearish stop loss: Above $4,050
Long-Term Outlook (1–3 months):
The broader trend remains bullish — the 50-day moving average is sloping upward, and every pullback to this level has so far attracted buyers.
If the price manages to reclaim and sustain above $4,100, the next major target lies in the $4,400–$4,500 range, potentially marking new all-time highs.
Conversely, if gold loses support at $3,850 and consolidates below it, the trend could shift from bullish to neutral, with possible downside toward $3,400.
• Bullish long-term target: $4,400–$4,500
• Long-term stop loss: Below $3,850
In summary, $3,850 is the golden support zone — holding above it could ignite the next leg of the rally, while a breakdown below it might open the path for a deeper correction toward $3,600–$3,400.
Qqq.. No crying in the casinoPullback from summer channel top to channel bottom is underway and almost finished..
But go to your weekly and zoom out a decade
Logarithmic
Zoomed in
So yes, we are at the bottom of a 6month channel but we are still at the top of a 15year trendline and I don't think we last above here much longer..
Alright so I won't go into the sectors on this one , I'll just stick with Qqq and the next couple of weeks of price action to help with direction
Daily channel
Bottom of this channel is 609
Now here comes the actionable analysis
Strong fib support and price action at 607
1hour 200sma is at 612 and Fib resistance is at 613.. that will be your resistance
So 607-609 is support and 612-614 is resistance..
Don't overthink this..
Below 607 and 600 comes (50sma)..
I think a break below 607 may come next week.
So if you want to short either wait to see 606 or wait for a retest 0f 612-614. Shorting here near support is stupid and stressful.
If you want to scalp the dip, I'd buy and 608-607 with a stop below 606.50.. target is 612..
Strong long only comes above 620, the we will tag 626..
Now here's my opinion on how long I think this will go on and how deep we can dive.
I think 589 gap close is the target for this pullback here, but that only comes with a break of 600. I don't think we will cut straight through 600 either. Most likely a nice bounce comes there.
From 589 we should have a rally back to 610 minimum.
You want to know if we will get another high this year? Like I said earlier we are at the top of a 15yr trend which we've been grinding higher on A.I Deals/News.
If we don't break below 607 by late next week then I would consider this pullback over and done but 607 is key.
Good luck
Tech Rally Sputters Ahead of Nvidia Earnings. What to KnowIs the powerful AI sector finally out of breath? With valuations that stretched, some investors fear if we all took it too far.
After months of seemingly unstoppable gains, the tech trade is finally showing signs of fatigue. Stocks are back in the red this week, with technology — the sector that’s carried the entire market on its silicon shoulders — leading the declines.
The S&P 500 SP:SPX , up more than 35% since its April lows and boasting 36 record closes this year, has been powered almost entirely by a handful of tech heavyweights.
The Magnificent Seven now make up nearly 40% of the index’s market value and roughly a third of its earnings.
But now, investors are wondering if the rally’s run too far, too fast. The question echoing across trading desks: Is AI finally out of breath?
💸 The Price of Perfection
It’s not that tech earnings have been bad — in fact, they’ve been stellar. Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN , Meta NASDAQ:META , and Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL all beat expectations last week and promised even more AI spending next year. Translation: more orders for Nvidia’s chips, more data centers, more server farms, more everything.
But good news isn’t moving the needle right now. When valuations stretch this far, even “great” can start to look “meh.” Investors are realizing that the higher you climb, the thinner the air gets.
The entire AI complex — from semiconductors to cloud computing — now trades at multiples that assume not just perfection, but sustained, exponential perfection. And that’s a tough sell when rates are still relatively high, inflation is sticky, and the Fed remains data-deprived thanks to a looming government shutdown (now the longest in history).
🧠 Nvidia: The Market’s Favorite Crystal Ball
Which brings us to Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA — the stock that can save the day. The chipmaker reports fiscal third-quarter earnings on November 19, and it’s shaping up to be a defining moment for the entire market.
Expectations are sky-high: analysts see earnings per share of $1.25, up from $0.81 a year ago , and revenue of $54.6 billion, a jaw-dropping 56% increase from last year’s $35 billion.
If Nvidia delivers (again), it could reignite the rally and remind investors why they fell in love with AI in the first place. But if there’s even a hint of deceleration — a cautious forecast, a whisper of supply constraints — the selloff could accelerate.
Simply put: as goes Nvidia, so goes the market. Fast fact: Nvidia washed out more than $450 billion from its valuation in just the last three days .
🔌 The Waiting Game
With two long weeks until Nvidia’s report, traders are stuck in a sort of limbo. Without a fresh catalyst, the market could decide to churn sideways — or drift lower — as profit-takers cash in on their massive gains.
The uncertainty isn’t helping either. A government shutdown delays key economic data, leaving the Fed flying in the dark just as investors are trying to gauge when rate cuts might actually arrive.
That means more guesswork, less conviction, and a good chance of exaggerated market swings.
So don’t be surprised if volatility ticks higher before Nvidia’s big reveal — the gem of the earnings calendar .
Off to you : How do you see the next two weeks unfolding? And, more importantly, are you bullish or bearish on Nvidia’s earnings report?
Nvidia: Acceleration Toward New Highs Nvidia gained strong upward momentum shortly after our last update, surging past the $196.45 mark, which had previously served as resistance. As a result, our prior short-term alternative scenario was triggered, and we have now adjusted the chart accordingly (with minor modifications). We now view the green wave as complete and believe that the joint top of green wave and beige wave III, as well as the low of wave IV, have already been established. The Target Zone we had initially set for the wave- low has therefore been removed. In our updated short-term alternative scenario, we still see a 30% probability of a new low for beige wave alt.IV below the $176.21 support level. In this case, however, price would likely rebound above the lower $145.50 level.
BITCOIN – LEVELS TO WATCHTraders,
We dumped. Now we are in a controlled recovery. The question is not only “are we going up” but “where will the market make its real decision.” Right now the chart is giving us two very clean checkpoints.
1. What happened
We lost the weekly open and sold off.
Spot was selling too, so the dump was real.
After the low, spot started buying again and price reclaimed above the big wick. That looks like a failed attempt lower.
Markets left a really weak low behind at ~99k. I am convinced we will sweep this low somewhere in the coming weeks.
Funding is negative while price is moving up. Shorts are still in the market. This is how squeezes start.
2. First decision zone: 107.300 to 108.000
This area is important because several things come together.
107.300 is a weak high. It stopped at a clean level without strong rejection. That often means liquidity is still sitting above it.
The AVWAP anchored from 7 April is there. Price is below it for the first time since that move. When price comes back into an AVWAP from below the market often reacts because old buyers meet new sellers.
We also have an LVN just below. That tells us the market did not trade much there before. Price likes to test that kind of gap.
So 107k to 108k is our first place to watch the data. If spot keeps pushing and perps do not start selling we can break it. If CVD stalls there it can be a take profit zone.
3. Accumulation and Distribution
On both the 1 hour and 4 hour spot charts the Accumulation/Distribution line tells an important story.
Price made a clear new low after the dump.
The A/D line did not make a new low. It actually started to turn up.
That is what traders call a bullish divergence. Price is still falling but the money flow is already improving.
In simple words. While candles were going down someone was quietly buying.
That means the bounce we see now is not just short covering or a random spike. It was prepared by real spot demand.
Futures can show a similar thing but spot is the cleaner signal because it is not influenced by funding, leverage or hedges.
When real buyers step in while shorts are still in the market it often creates the right conditions for a squeeze.
4. OBV check
On the 4h OBV you can see it popping up from the base after the dump. OBV going up while price is moving up means volume is supporting the move. This agrees with the spot A/D story. It is better when price and OBV move together than when price moves alone.
5. Scenario 1
Price pushes into 107k to 108k.
That sweep takes the weak high and tags the AVWAP.
If at that point spot CVD slows down or perps start to sell we can reject.
A rejection there can send price back into the mid zone and even lower towards 101k to 102k and in extension back to the HTF LVN near 98k.
This is the simple “first resistance holds” idea.
6. Scenario 2
This is the one I am leaning toward.
Price breaks and holds above 108k.
Shorts do not get their reaction.
Spot keeps supporting and funding stays negative to flat.
Then the market has room to go for the next real liquidity pool which is 117k to 118k.
7. Why 117k to 118k matters
On the liquidity heatmap there is clear resting liquidity higher up. Price often travels to those areas because that is where orders are.
The golden pocket of the previous move sits in this same zone. Many traders watch this fib area so reactions there are common.
Several AVWAP bands from earlier dates are meeting around 117k to 118k. When AVWAPs from different anchors cluster together it creates a stronger level because different groups of traders all care about that price.
Between the current price and that zone there are imbalances and LVNs. That means the market moved quickly there before and did not build volume. These thin areas often get filled on the next push.
8. How to read it in real time
Above 108k and spot CVD still rising means squeeze is on.
Above 108k and funding still negative means shorts are paying to stay wrong.
Lose 108k again after a sweep and see CVD roll over means scenario 1 is playing.
Price can just dump down without getting more liquidity. But looking unlikely based on the data right now.
So if Bitcoin can break and hold above 108k there is not much in the way until 117k to 118k.
Final view
We dumped on real flow.
We are recovering with spot support.
We have a clear first test at 107k to 108k.
Break and hold and the magnet becomes 117k to 118k because of liquidity, golden pocket, AVWAP confluence and imbalance.
TLDR;
Bitcoin sold off hard, but the data says the low was bought. Spot A/D started rising while price was still making new lows, funding turned negative and price reclaimed above the wick, which tells us real buyers stepped in while shorts stayed in their positions. Now price is climbing back toward 107k to 108k where a weak high and the April AVWAP are waiting, so that is the first place the market can decide if this recovery is just a bounce or the start of a squeeze. If buyers keep showing up there and we push through, the path above is thin and the next real pocket of liquidity, AVWAP confluence, imbalance and even the golden pocket of the earlier move all sit together around 117k to 118k. That is why this recovery matters. It is not just candles going up. It is positioning, spot flow and liquidity all lining up.
If you enjoy this type of analysis or find it helpful, leave a like or drop a comment. I don’t ask for anything in return — I share this to help traders understand what’s really happening behind the charts. It also helps me see if people actually read and value these breakdowns, so if it helped you, let me know below.
Fibonacci Retracement - Quick Guide in 5 StepsTrading the Fibonacci Retracement - Quick Guide in 5 Steps.
What is the Fibonacci tool?
The Fib Retracement Tool is a tool used widely across many charts. From crypto to stocks.
It assists in identifying the Golden Pocket, along with any potential Support and Resistance zones based on the sequence in Fibonacci.
Investors & Traders draw it from a previous high/low or low/high.
On a chart, each key level shows where price might pause or reverse during a pull back, before it continues the trend.
In this guide you will learn how to use the Fibonacci tool in 5 steps.
1. Configurations
Open up your Fib Retracement Tool's settings, apply the below configurations.
(You can change the color to your choice)
2. Identify High/Low's
Identify, recent highs and lows of your current chart/pair.
3. Applying Fib Retracement
Select your Fib Retracement tool. Place it on your chart starting from the swing low to the swing high.
4. Once completed
Highlight the Golden Pocket Field in the zone (0.65-0.618)
5. Review Entry
Price will eventually make it's way back down to the Golden Pocket to retest and reverse.
SL Placement would be on a previous low or key level, TP placement would be at a previous high or key level.
Bonus:
See the real time example below:
Please like, comment and follow if this guide was useful to you.
If you have any requests on analysis or tutorial requests, let me know and I'll be happy to make one!
$NVO Last opportunity!🌱 Novo Nordisk: A Healthy Pullback in a Long-Term Growth Story
After years of remarkable growth, Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) has seen its stock cool off — sliding from over 💲130 to around 💲49. At first glance, that might look alarming, but the reality is far more balanced. What we’re seeing is an organic correction after a period of exceptional hype, not a collapse of fundamentals.
💉 From Breakthrough Buzz to Market Reset
The rally through 2022–2023 was powered by massive excitement over Ozempic and Wegovy, Novo Nordisk’s revolutionary GLP-1 drugs transforming diabetes and weight-loss treatment.
As the world caught on, valuations skyrocketed — but eventually, markets needed to breathe. Profit-taking, competition from Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro, and normalization of expectations triggered the current pullback.
📈 The Bigger Picture
Zooming out tells a very different story — over the decades, Novo Nordisk’s stock has gained over 30,000% 🚀, riding steady innovation and strong global demand.
Even now, the long-term uptrend remains intact, with the stock retesting support around $45–$50, a level that previously served as a major base.
💡 A Discounted Opportunity?
For long-term investors, this phase could be an opportunity to accumulate a quality company at a discount.
Novo Nordisk continues to lead in metabolic treatments, maintain strong margins, and expand production — all pillars of sustainable growth.
While no one can predict the short-term, history suggests this pullback may simply be the market’s way of resetting before the next phase of growth.
🧠 Educational Takeaway
🔁 Strong fundamentals can lead to temporary overvaluation during hype cycles.
📉 Pullbacks are natural and healthy in long-term uptrends.
💎 Quality companies often reward patience when bought during corrections.
In short: Novo Nordisk’s story isn’t broken — it’s evolving. This dip may be less of a warning sign and more of a lesson in long-term investing discipline. 🌍📊
Qualcomm Rose 11% in One Day on AI Plans. What Its Chart SaysSemiconductor designer Qualcomm NASDAQ:QCOM , which is known for providing products to the consumer-electronics industry, rose more than 11% to a 15-month high in a single day last week when it announced a pivot into the world of artificial intelligence. Let's see what QCOM's chart and fundamentals say following the news and ahead of this week's earnings release.
Qualcomm's Fundamental Analysis
QCOM plans to release fiscal Q4 numbers after the market close on Wednesday, with Wall Street currently looking for $2.86 in adjusted earnings per share on roughly $10.75 billion of revenue.
That would represent a 6.3% annual gain in earnings from the $2.69 in adjusted EPS that QCOM reported in the same period last year. Revenue would likewise have risen some 5% from about $10.24 billion a year earlier.
In fact, 16 of the 26 sell-side analysts that I know of that cover this name have revised their earnings estimates higher since the quarter began, while only nine have lowered their projections. (One estimate remains unchanged.)
Of course, markets will also want to hear management's commentary on the shift to AI, which will put Qualcomm in head-to-head competition with likes of Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA and Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD .
Qualcomm's Technical Analysis
Now let's look at QCOM's chart going back some eight months and running through Friday afternoon:
Readers will see that Qualcomm rose 70.5% between hitting a 17-month intraday low of $120.80 on April 7 and a $205.95 session high on Oct. 27 following the AI announcement.
Still, QCOM has for the most part methodically traded during this whole period within the confines of the Raff Regression model that I created above (marked with orange and pink fields).
That said, the stock has come in some after its Oct. 27 blow-off top -- perhaps because Qualcomm's new AI-friendly chips won't be ready for a number of months.
As QCOM pulled back, it felt around for support close to the 38.2% Fibonacci-sequence retracement level of the stock's entire 2025 rally (marked with gray shading in the chart above).
That's the downside pivot here, but there's technical help for Qualcomm not far below the 38.2% Fib level.
QCOM's 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with a green line at $171.60) lies nearby. That's where we might find out if the swing crowd is on board with Qualcomm's recent upward move.
If not, Qualcomm's 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted with a blue line) and its 200-day SMA (the red line) aren't far below the 21-day EMA.
Those are levels where the professional money managers might be, so there's plenty of possible support for QCOM indicated in the chart above.
All in, Qualcomm's upside pivot could be the stock's recent $205.95 high. Conversely, the stock's downside pivot could be that 38.2% Fib level.
As for the stock's secondary technical indicators, Qualcomm's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) is quite robust, yet not overbought technically.
Meanwhile, the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," denoted by black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) is overtly bullish.
Within the MACD, the histogram of the 9-day EMA is well into positive territory, while the 12-day EMA rides above the 26-day EMA and both are above the zero-bound. Those are all bullish technical signals.
An Options Option
Options traders who want to go long on QCOM while getting paid to take on equity risk might utilize what's called a "bull-put spread."
This is constructed by selling one put and buying a second one with a lower strike, but the same expiration date. Here's an example:
-- Sell one QCOM $175 put with a Nov. 7 expiration date (i.e. after this week's earnings). This costs about $3.75.
-- Buy one QCOM Nov. 7 $165 put for roughly $1.30.
Net Credit: $2.45
Should Qualcomm -- which closed at $180.72 Monday -- never trade as low as $175 prior to the options' Nov. 7 expiration, the trader will simply pocket the $2.45 net credit.
And should the stock trade below $175 at expiration but not below $165, the trader would end up long 100 shares of QCOM at a $172.55.
But what if the shares take a serious beating between now and Nov. 7? Well, if QCOM drops below $165 at expiration, the trader in the example above would have lost $10 on the equity trade less the $2.45 net credit for the bull-put spread. That works out to a $7.55 net loss.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle had no position in QCOM at the time of writing this column, but was long NVDA and AMD.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Options trading is risky and not appropriate for everyone. Read the Options Disclosure Document ( j.moomoo.com ) before trading. Options are complex and you may quickly lose the entire investment. Supporting docs for any claims will be furnished upon request.
Options trading subject to eligibility requirements. Strategies available will depend on options level approved.
Maximum potential loss and profit for options are calculated based on the single leg or an entire multi-leg trade remaining intact until expiration with no option contracts being exercised or assigned. These figures do not account for a portion of a multi-leg strategy being changed or removed or the trader assuming a short or long position in the underlying stock at or before expiration. Therefore, it is possible to lose more than the theoretical max loss of a strategy.
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Will History Repeat Itself? NASDAQ 2025 vs 2020The NASDAQ 100 is currently showing a striking structural symmetry to the 2020 pre-crash formation.
Both phases formed a 5-wave impulsive rally, followed by tight consolidation near highs — a typical distribution top pattern.
The 20-day EMA is starting to flatten, signaling a possible loss of momentum.
If symmetry continues, the index could mirror a short- to mid-term correction, similar to early 2020’s breakdown.
While macro conditions differ today, market behavior often repeats in fractal patterns — a reminder that price structure often precedes headlines.
📊 Keep watch for a confirmed EMA rollover and breakdown below support near 25,500 — that could validate the bearish symmetry.
Liquidity Zones Explained: Where Smart Money GoesMarkets don’t move randomly. Every candle, spike, or reversal happens for a reason and that reason is liquidity.
Liquidity is what fuels price movement. It’s where buy and sell orders are concentrated, and where large players execute positions without showing their hand.
Understanding where liquidity lies gives traders a major advantage, because price doesn’t move to levels by accident. It moves there to fill orders.
Liquidity represents the pool of resting orders waiting to be filled — stop losses, pending buys, or sells.
When price reaches these areas, volume spikes, and the market finds enough counterparties for large players to enter or exit positions.
Liquidity isn’t just numbers on the book. It’s the invisible map of trader behavior:
– Stops above highs (where breakout traders get trapped)
– Stops below lows (where panic selling occurs)
– Consolidation zones (where both sides accumulate orders)
These areas become magnets for price movement.
When you see sharp wicks above or below key levels, it’s often not manipulation — it’s collection.
Smart money drives price into these zones to trigger stop losses and capture liquidity before reversing in the true direction.
The move looks random, but it’s calculated.
The goal is to fill large positions efficiently, using retail orders as exit liquidity.
Instead of chasing price, learn to wait for liquidity grabs.
The simplest method is to mark obvious highs and lows and observe how price reacts when those levels are taken.
If price breaks a key high but fails to continue — and momentum shifts back down — it’s often a sign of a liquidity sweep, not a breakout.
These moments reveal where the real players are positioning themselves.
Trading liquidity is about reaction, not prediction.
Liquidity zones reveal where traders are trapped and where professionals engage.
If you stop focusing on where price is and start paying attention to why it moves there, you’ll see the market with far more clarity.
Peak Tech Earnings Wrapped Up: Here Are the Winners and LosersWe're past that time when we all get glued to the dual-monitor setup and watch the titans of tech parade their financials.
Last week was the Super Bowl of earnings season, with Meta NASDAQ:META , Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL , Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , and Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN all reporting in the span of just a couple of days.
The result? A mixed bag of profits, promises, and expenses, all revolving around the familiar AI growth story. Some soared. Others sank. And everyone was reminded that in Big Tech , growth costs money — a lot of it.
Let’s unwrap what happened in the most influential week of the earnings calendar .
🥴 Meta: The Spending Spree Continues
Meta NASDAQ:META suffered the most bruising showing. On paper, revenue looked great — $51.2 billion, up 26% year over year and above estimates. But earnings per share? A brutal $1.05, far below the expected $6.72, after a nearly $16 billion one-time charge tied to President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.”
Without that charge, net income would’ve jumped to $18.6 billion. Instead, the headline number showed $2.7 billion — not exactly inspiring. But the real story wasn’t the miss. It was the spending.
Meta now plans to splurge $71 billion this year, up from $69 billion, mainly on AI data centers and a hiring binge in its research division. The stock dropped 11% on Thursday.
🧠 Alphabet: Ads Strong, Cloud on Fire
If Meta NASDAQ:META stumbled, Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL strutted. The Google parent beat on everything : earnings per share at $2.87 vs. $2.26 expected and revenue hitting a record $102.3 billion, up 16% year on year.
The company took a $3.5 billion fine from the European Commission — but even with that, margins looked healthy. Excluding the fine, the operating margin would’ve hit 33.9%. Not bad for a firm still making 85% of its money from ads.
The real fireworks were in Google Cloud, where sales rose 34% and profit margins improved to 24% from 17% last year. Alphabet stock jumped 2.5% Thursday.
🧩 Microsoft: Cloudy with a Chance of Heavy Capex
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT delivered classic consistency — and then some. The company reported earnings per share of $4.13, beating estimates, on $77.7 billion in revenue. Azure, the star of the show, grew 40%, topping expectations.
Yet shares dipped 3% the day after as investors fixated on capital spending. Microsoft shelled out $34.9 billion last quarter and warned that capex growth in 2026 will exceed 2025.
🍏 Apple: New Phone Who Dis?
Apple NASDAQ:AAPL is back, everyone. The company posted record revenue of $102.5 billion , slightly above expectations, and hinted that the holiday quarter will be even juicier.
CFO Kevan Parekh said sales could rise 10–12%, led by a “double-digit” surge in iPhone 17 upgrades. After years of lukewarm demand, Apple’s upgrade cycle looks hot again.
One blemish: China sales dipped, underscoring the company’s ongoing battle in its second-largest market. But services revenue — now over $100 billion annually — continues to shine as Apple quietly transforms into a subscription empire disguised as a hardware company.
The stock erased a 3% Friday gain to dip into the red.
🚀 Amazon: AI, Efficiency, and a Holiday Boom
Then there was Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN , the comeback kid of this earnings season. The e-commerce giant’s revenue soared 13% to $180 billion , and profit surged 39% to $21.2 billion. Solid.
Amazon Web Services grew 20%, its fastest clip since 2022, as AI demand turned into real money. CEO Andy Jassy said data center expansion will remain a top priority heading into 2025.
The company managed to sprinkle in some “efficiency” — laying off 14,000 employees, a move expected to cost $1.8 billion now but save plenty later.
Amazon’s stock shot up 10% in pre-market Friday, and held on to the increase, proving that just a select few companies can pivot from layoffs to record profits with such finesse.
🧾 The Takeaway
So, what did we learn from Peak Tech Week?
America’s highflyers are spending big to secure their AI future. The underlying theme is that AI costs a fortune, but not investing in it could cost even more.
In short — the future is bright, the bills are bigger, and the market’s message is clear: keep growing, but try not to spook traders while you do it. The earnings show continues with AMD NASDAQ:AMD and Palantir NASDAQ:PLTD reporting this week.
Off to you : Are you looking to scoop up some NASDAQ:META or sell some NASDAQ:AMZN ? Share your thoughts in the comments!
BYD : Smart Money Loading Before a Massive Wave 5 Breakout🚀 BYD Company Limited Class A (SZSE: 002594) — Wave 5 Expansion Setup
Big structure, clean levels, and solid fundamentals… Wave 5 might surprise a lot of people 👇
BYD has been quietly building strength, and the chart now suggests that the next major bullish wave could be setting up. After a long consolidation phase (Wave 4), smart money appears to be accumulating again — a classic sign of preparation for the next impulsive move.
A clean breakout above 138.99 would confirm Wave 5 , potentially targeting the 284–676 CNY zone based on Fibonacci extensions .
With solid fundamentals, supportive market structure, and a strong Elliott Wave setup, BYD could be entering a new long-term expansion phase. ⚡
Follow for updates on Wave 5 development and smart money reactions in the breakout zone! 📊
#BYD #002594 #ElliottWave #SmartMoneyConcepts #Fibonacci #WaveAnalysis #MarketStructure #PriceAction #EVstocks #GrowthStocks #ChinaMarket #LongTermInvesting #SwingTrade #TechnicalAnalysis #StockMarket
Busy trading week coming up!!The trading week of November 3–7 is considered a pivotal period for international financial markets. A series of high-level economic data including manufacturing and services PMIs, ADP non-farm payrolls, trade balances, and interest rate decisions from major central banks will create a mixed picture of the global economic cycle. Meanwhile, statements from Federal Reserve officials and geopolitical developments can reinforce or distort monetary policy expectations later in the year.
🔹 Monday – Global PMI:
PMI figures from China, Europe, the UK, and the US kick off the week, reflecting the overall health of global manufacturing. Weak data could boost expectations for monetary easing, while stronger results may reinforce inflation-control policies. Additionally, the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting could impact oil prices and inflation trends.
🔹 Tuesday – Monetary Policy & Trade:
Focus turns to the RBA (Australia) rate decision and Canada’s trade balance. The market expects the RBA to keep rates unchanged at 3.6%, but a “hawkish” tone could trigger volatility in AUD. Speeches from Fed and BoC officials will also provide further clues on the 2025 rate-cut cycle.
🔹 Wednesday – Services & Employment:
The US Services PMI and ADP employment report will take center stage. These data points often provide early hints for the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Crude oil inventories from API and EIA will continue to influence oil prices and inflation expectations.
🔹 Thursday – European Data & BoE Decision:
The Bank of England may cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% amid recession concerns. Germany’s retail sales and industrial production figures will offer insights into the region’s economic health.
🔹 Friday – China & the Fed:
China’s trade balance and a series of speeches from five FOMC members will dominate attention. Any comments related to inflation or December rate decisions could cause sharp moves in USD and gold.
Three Key Risks to Watch:
1️⃣ Data Divergence: PMI or ADP figures may diverge significantly from official data, sparking volatility in market expectations.
2️⃣ Policy Surprises: Unexpected moves or tone shifts from the RBA or BoE could trigger market shocks.
3️⃣ Geopolitics & Liquidity: Escalating tensions in Russia–Ukraine or the Middle East, along with oil price swings, could drive safe-haven flows into gold and USD.
Technical analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold price is hovering around the $4,000/oz mark, after recovering slightly from the 0.382 Fibonacci support zone at $3,972/oz. The recent decline remains within a short-term correction channel, but selling pressure has slowed as the RSI exited the oversold zone and showed signs of forming a technical bottom.
The EMA21 (around $4,055/oz) is currently acting as an important resistance. If the price breaks above this level decisively, the short-term correction structure could be completed, opening a new uptrend towards the $4,128–$4,200/oz area (Fibo 0.236 and the most recent old peak). Conversely, if gold fails to surpass the EMA21, the correction could continue towards $3,846 or $3,720/oz – the next two support zones corresponding to the Fibo 0.5 and 0.618 levels, respectively.
Note: RSI momentum is still weak, so further confirmation with trading volume and reversal candlestick signals is needed before opening a long position.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4091 - 4089⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4095
→Take Profit 1 4083
↨
→Take Profit 2 4077
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3954 - 3956⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3950
→Take Profit 1 3962
↨
→Take Profit 2 3968
EUR/AUD downside pressure intensifiesEUR/AUD finds itself just above a key zone consisting of horizontal support at 1.7600 and the key 200-day moving average, providing decent two-way trade setups depending on how the near-term price action evolves.
Should we see a break and close beneath both levels, it would allow for shorts to be established below the 200DMA with a stop above for protection, targeting 1.7465 or 1.7400 initially depending on desired risk/reward from the trade. The option would also be there to sell the break should we see a close beneath 1.7600, allowing for a stop to be placed above targeting the same levels. However, consider squaring or even flipping the trade should the price be unable to break beneath the 200DMA.
Should the price continue to hold above 1.7600, you could flip the setup and establish longs, allowing for a stop to be placed beneath the 200DMA for protection. 1.7726 or the intersection of the 50DMA with horizontal resistance at 1.7800 screen as logical targets.
Momentum indicators favour downside over upside, increasing the appeal of bearish setups. RSI (14) is trending lower beneath 50, pointing to building downside pressure. MACD has confirmed the bearish message, crossing the signal line from above before pushing into negative territory.
Good luck!
DS
Bullish on Amazon as the tide turns backAmazon’s recent job cuts aren’t a sign of weakness, they’re a strategic recalibration. The company is shifting from broad expansion to focused execution. In the AI era, scale isn’t just about size, it’s about precision.
Amazon has trimmed roles across Alexa, devices, and some corporate functions. These are legacy bets, not core growth engines. At the same time, it’s doubling down on AI infrastructure, robotics, and cloud innovation. This is not belt-tightening for survival, it’s reallocation for higher returns.
The broader theme is operating leverage. Amazon is reshaping its cost structure to match a new kind of growth, leaner, smarter, more profitable. AI tools aren’t just powering customer-facing products, they’re cutting fulfillment times, optimising logistics, and automating warehouses. Fewer people, more output.
These cuts also signal cultural focus. Amazon is pushing resources into areas where it sees outsized opportunity. AI chips, ad tech, fulfillment innovation. All of these carry higher margins and more defensible moats than traditional retail or hardware.
To be clear, the job cuts matter. They’re part of the margin expansion story. But they must be seen in context. Amazon is not retreating, it’s refining. And for long-term investors, that distinction makes all the difference.
The stock is now sitting comfortably above its 200-day moving average.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
EUR/USD Under PressureEUR/USD Under Pressure
Today, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1560, close to autumn lows. From this week’s high, the pair has fallen by roughly 0.85%, reflecting bearish pressure.
The main factors driving the decline are traders’ reactions to central bank signals:
→ Hawkish Fed rhetoric: On Wednesday, Jerome Powell indicated that further rate cuts are “by no means predetermined.” The Fed continues to see mixed signals from the labour market and inflation data, suggesting it will not rush into easing policy.
→ ECB keeps rates unchanged: Yesterday, the European Central Bank left rates steady. However, markets remain concerned about the slowing economic growth across the eurozone, meaning the ECB cannot afford to tighten policy amid weak activity.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
Since mid-September, price movements have formed a descending channel (shown in red). Today, the pair fell below a key support level at 1.1580 (highlighted by arrows).
An earlier attempt to break this support in early October failed — as the pair entered oversold territory below the channel, it formed a double bottom (A–B) before sharply rebounding.
In this context, the 1.15435 level, where the double bottom formed, is significant. The orange-shaded area shows that bulls step in near this level, producing candles with long lower wicks. On shorter timeframes, this behaviour displays signs of a bullish engulfing pattern.
If bears succeed in breaking support, the pair could test the lower boundary of the red channel. Positive news from Donald Trump on progress in trade talks with China could improve the U.S. trade balance, supporting this bearish scenario.
Conversely, if bulls continue defending the 1.1560–1.15435 zone, EUR/USD may rebound, potentially moving towards the QH line.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NVIDIA – A New World First, Where Next?A mere 24 hours after Apple become the third company in history to reach a $4 trillion valuation, NVIDIA set a new benchmark by becoming the first company ever to register a market capitalisation of $5 trillion.
Despite concerns about over extended valuations, the news flow for NVIDIA was initially positive to start this new week as the company attempts to solidify its future at the centre of the potential AI revolution.
CEO Jensen Huang revealed the company had received $500 billion of AI chip orders, including contracts to build supercomputers for the US government and then President Trump commented on Wednesday that NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell chips could be a discussion point when he meets with President Xi at Thursday’s summit in South Korea.
Putting this into numbers, after opening on Monday at 189.25, the stock soared 12% across the first 3 trading days to a high of 212.19 on Wednesday. That move brought its year-to-date rally to 54%, very impressive indeed! Although, it must be said that prices did slip back to close the day at 207.04.
However, overnight the positive sentiment may have stalled slightly, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates 25bps as expected but Chairman Powell provided a more cautious outlook on future cuts than had been anticipated. Also, earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta released late on Wednesday were mixed, with strong profits offset by rising costs.
Looking forward, the initial updates from the President Trump and President Xi meeting has started to arrive on newswires and traders will be keen to assess the actual details of what was discussed about NVIDIA chip sales between the two countries. A crucial aspect could be whether sales of NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell chip was discussed and if not, what were the reasons why.
Then it’s eyes down for the release of Amazon and Apple earnings after the close tonight which could either confirm the recent bullish moves or throw a sentiment curve ball which could negatively impact in positioning into the weekend.
Technical Update: Acceleration Higher Shifts Focus to Extension Resistance
In just six trading sessions, NVIDIA's share price has rallied over 20%, reaching fresh all-time highs. Such a rapid acceleration can often signal strong momentum but also raises the risk of short-term upside exhaustion, although it's difficult to pinpoint where such moves might slow or even see risks of possible reversal.
In this environment, traders might monitor support and resistance levels, with resistance zones signalling potential for profit-taking, while breaks below support could lead to further price weakness.
[b Potential Resistance Levels:
As price action pushes into uncharted territory with new all-time highs, identifying resistance becomes a challenge. However, traders often turn to Fibonacci extension levels, derived from the most recent correction, to highlight potential areas where upside momentum may slow or even reverse.
As the chart above shows, for NVIDIA, this last correction developed between October 10th and October 22nd and the latest strength appears to be stalling in the short term ahead of 213.23, a level equal to the 100% Fibonacci extension.
There is no guarantee such extension levels will be successful in capping price strength and closing breaks above the 213.23 resistance may shift focus to 220.14, which is the higher 138.2% extension level.
Potential Support Levels:
To maintain NVIDIA’s current price strength, traders may now be focused on Wednesday’s low at 204.78 as near-term support; if price weakness tests this level, its defense will be watched, as a closing break below 204.78 could trigger further downside pressure.
A close below 204.78 could lead to tests of 198.59, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October 22nd to 29th rally, but if that support gives way, risks may extend toward 194.39, the deeper 50% retracement level.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
Building Rock-Solid Confidence: The Trader’s Unshakable EdgeConfidence is the foundation of every great trader — not because it guarantees wins, but because it guarantees consistency. In this session, we break down the psychology of self-belief and how to build confidence that doesn’t crumble when the market tests you.
Learn why confidence isn’t built from profits but from disciplined execution. We’ll cover how to stop second-guessing your trades, rebuild trust in your system, and detach your self-worth from your results. This episode shows you how professional traders use repetition, reflection, and recovery to stay calm, clear, and confident — even in drawdowns.
You’ll learn:
The difference between ego and true confidence
How to rebuild trust in your trading plan
Why the market manipulates your confidence and how to protect it
The 3-step framework for building self-trust in trading
If you’ve ever felt anxious before pressing “Buy” or “Sell,” or you constantly question your setups, this discussion will help you develop the rock-solid mindset needed to execute with precision and confidence.
Tags: trading psychology, trading confidence, self-belief for traders, trading mindset, forex psychology, discipline in trading, consistency in trading, emotional control, trader development, performance mindset






















