SUI is on the verge of another rally (4H)From the point where we marked the green arrow on the chart, a bullish phase has started on SUI. This area acted as a key reaction zone where buyers stepped in decisively, shifting market sentiment from corrective to bullish.
Based on the current price structure, it appears that we are developing an ABC corrective pattern. In this structure, Wave B has formed as a triangle, which is a common consolidation pattern before continuation. The triangle suggests decreasing volatility and balance between buyers and sellers before the next impulsive move.
At the moment, price action indicates that we are still inside Wave B, with one final sub-wave remaining wave “e” of the triangle. Once this last leg of the triangle is completed, the corrective phase should be fully exhausted.
After the completion of this final wave, the market is expected to resume its bullish move in the form of Wave C, which typically unfolds as a strong impulsive rally. This next move should bring expansion in both momentum and volume compared to the corrective structure we are currently seeing.
To manage risk and execution efficiently, two entry zones have been clearly marked on the chart, and positions should be built using a DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) approach rather than a single entry. This allows better positioning in case of short-term volatility during the end of Wave B.
The projected targets for Wave C are also outlined on the chart, based on classical Elliott Wave projections and prior market structure. These levels represent logical areas where partial or full profit-taking can be considered.
⚠️ Invalidation:
This analysis will be invalidated if a candle closes below the marked invalidation level. A confirmed close below that level would indicate that the current wave structure is no longer valid and that the market may be transitioning into a different scenario.
As always, this setup is based on technical structure and probability, not certainty. Proper risk management is essential.
If you have a coin or altcoin you want analyzed, first hit the like button and then comment its name so I can review it for you.
This is not a trade setup, as it has no precise stop-loss, stop, or target. I do not publish my trade setups here. XAUUSD (H4) – Monday SetupGeopolitical shock risk, gold may spike | Trade liquidity and reaction zones only
Quick summary
News around Trump’s claim that Maduro has been detained, plus Venezuela’s response (they don’t know his and his wife’s whereabouts and are demanding proof of life), raises geopolitical uncertainty sharply. For gold, that’s a classic catalyst for a gap/spike at Monday open.
So my rule for Monday: no FOMO, only trade liquidity zones and confirmed reactions on the chart.
1) Macro context: Why gold can surge on Monday
Rising geopolitical tension often drives flows into safe-haven assets like gold.
When facts are unclear and tensions escalate, the market can open with:
✅ sharp spikes, ✅ liquidity sweeps, ✅ wider spreads.
➡️ Best approach: wait for price to hit levels, then trade the reaction — not the headline.
2) Technical view (H4 – based on your chart)
Gold is currently moving inside a larger structure after a heavy move, and your chart highlights the key zones clearly:
Key zones
Sell test support 4450 (pullback area where price may get sold)
Liquidity 4330 (major liquidity magnet)
OB 4309 (order block / short-term reaction zone)
Support 4277 (intermediate support)
Buy zone 4203–4206 (deep support / swing buy area)
3) Monday trading scenarios (Liam style: trade the level)
Scenario A (priority): Spike up → SELL around 4450
✅ If gold pumps on the headline at the open:
Sell around 4450 (sell-test zone)
SL: above the most recent swing high (refine on lower TF)
TP1: 4330
TP2: 4309
TP3: 4277
Logic: Headline-driven opens often spike to sweep buy-side liquidity first, then rotate back into value/liquidity.
Scenario B: Sweep down → BUY at liquidity zones
✅ If price gets pulled down first:
Buy around 4330 (Liquidity)
Buy confirmation at 4309 (OB)
SL (guide): below 4300
TP: 4380 → 4450 (scale out)
Logic: 4330 is a major liquidity magnet and often produces a sharp reaction bounce.
Scenario C (worst-case dump): BUY the deep support 4203–4206
✅ If volatility is extreme and price flushes:
Buy: 4203 – 4206
SL: 4195
TP: 4277 → 4330
Logic: This is a deep swing-buy area if the market does a hard liquidity reset.
4) Key notes for a headline-driven Monday open
Avoid trading the first 5–10 minutes if spreads widen.
Only enter once price hits the level and shows a clear reaction (rejection / engulf / MSS on M15).
Reduce size — geopolitical opens can whip hard.
Do you think Monday’s move sweeps up into 4450 first, or drops straight into 4330 liquidity? 
Short
Long
Gold Bullish Outlook | Dollar Weakness & Geopolitical Risks!Hey Traders,
In the coming week, we are closely monitoring XAUUSD (Gold) for a potential buying opportunity around the 4,280 zone. Gold remains in a strong bullish trend and is currently undergoing a healthy corrective pullback, approaching a key trendline confluence and 4,280 support & resistance zone, which could act as a high-probability demand area.
From a macro perspective, the recent weakness in the US Dollar continues to support upside momentum in Gold. Additionally, last night’s escalation of US tensions with Venezuela has increased geopolitical uncertainty, further boosting safe-haven demand for Gold, which strengthens the bullish bias.
As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk accordingly.
Trade safe,
Joe. Long 
Head and Shoulders PatternHead & Shoulders Patterns
Classic Reversal Structures Every Trader Should Know
1. Head & Shoulders (Bearish Reversal)
The Head & Shoulders pattern is a bearish reversal formation that typically appears after an established uptrend. It signals a possible shift from bullish to bearish market conditions.
This structure consists of three swing highs:
• Left Shoulder – first peak
• Head – highest peak
• Right Shoulder – final peak, similar in height to the left shoulder
Identification Rules
• Left Shoulder < Head > Right Shoulder
• Left Shoulder ≈ Right Shoulder (symmetry improves reliability)
Volume ideally declines as the pattern forms, showing weakening buying pressure.
Between the peaks are two pullbacks (swing lows). Connecting these lows forms the neckline. A confirmed break below the neckline completes the pattern and signals bearish continuation.
2. Inverse Head & Shoulders (Bullish Reversal)
The Inverse Head & Shoulders is the bullish counterpart and typically forms after a downtrend. Instead of peaks, the pattern is made of three troughs:
• Left Shoulder – first low
• Head – lowest point
• Right Shoulder – higher low, similar to the left shoulder
Identification Rules
• Left Shoulder > Head < Right Shoulder
• Left Shoulder ≈ Right Shoulder (symmetry improves reliability)
Volume often contracts during formation and may expand on the neckline breakout.
The highs between the troughs form the neckline. A break above the neckline confirms the bullish reversal.
3. Complex Head & Shoulders Variations
Complex variations follow the same logic as standard H&S patterns but include:
• Multiple shoulders on one or both sides
• More than one head
Despite the added structure, these patterns still rely on:
• Symmetry
• Clear neckline definition
• Breakout confirmation
Traders should treat them the same way as standard formations, but with extra patience.
4. Measurement Rule (Profit Targets)
Standard Head & Shoulders (Bearish)
• Measure the vertical distance from the head to the neckline
• Subtract that distance from the neckline breakout level
• This projects a downside target
Inverse Head & Shoulders (Bullish)
This is very simple. It’s exactly the same as the above Standard Head & Shoulders (Bearish), but inverted. Same concept. Just upside down.
** Tip **
When multiple heads exist, use the most extreme head (highest for bearish, lowest for bullish) for measurement.
Final Notes for Traders
Head & Shoulders patterns remain effective because they visually represent trend exhaustion and shifting market psychology.
When trading these patterns, always emphasize:
• Structure first
• Confirmation second
• Risk management always 
Education
2025 Ends With a Breakout?Year Ends With a Breakout, yes!🚀📈
Bitcoin just delivered what the market was waiting for — a clean breakout back into the channel 🎯
This is how we close the year… with intent.
Key Technicals:
• Major support holding at 88,273 – 88,535
• ATA 200 support confirmed
• Price reclaimed the channel → momentum shifts bullish
• 91,265 is the real breakout trigger
• Above that, 94k–95k comes into play
On the higher timeframe, Bitcoin still looks undervalued around 88k , with fair value closer to the ~101k zone . The market just needs to prove itself above 91k first — step by step, no rush.
Worst-case scenarios sit much lower, but that’s not the base case. Structure > fear.
Macro & Flow:
Banks, gold, and silver are heating up behind the scenes. Liquidity moves in cycles — and historically, some of that money always finds its way back to the best-performing asset . 🟠
Remember: be out under support (88k roughly-88200 exactly). Levels don’t negotiate.
Trading Wisdom 📜
Markets reward patience, not prediction.
AI reacts — humans interpret, adapt, and manage risk .
Trade levels, not emotions.
Disclaimer: Nothing I post is financial advice. It's perspective. I’ve mastered the art of prognosis, but you are the one behind the trigger. Always know your levels, and respect your risk.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Long
Short 
Long
Silver Price Surpasses $80 for the First Time.Silver Price Surpasses $80 for the First Time. Why Could This Be a Bearish Sign?
As the XAG/USD chart shows, earlier this morning the price of one ounce of silver reached above $83 for the first time. However, this move was followed by an abnormally sharp reversal to the downside.
Why Did the Silver Price Fall?
On 24 December, we not only outlined the fundamental backdrop but also highlighted that the market was vulnerable to sharp price movements due to reduced liquidity during the holiday period.
Now, as the ATR indicator has surged sharply higher—confirming our assumption—it is worth examining the key chart details that point to emerging bearish signals.
Technical Analysis of the XAG/USD Chart
The previously constructed ascending channel (highlighted in orange) has retained its slope, while the following developments occurred:
→ The silver price surge on 26 December (marked by the arrow), with a bullish gap, doubled the ascending channel.
→ At the open of today’s trading session, the price broke above the upper boundary with another bullish gap (marked by the second arrow).
It is important to note that:
→ The sharp surge in silver prices towards a historic high may have been driven by a shortage of seller liquidity at the opening of financial markets during the final week of the year.
→ The aggressive nature of the subsequent decline towards $75 appears to be a clear sign of a shift in market sentiment.
→ Wide candlesticks indicate heightened activity from so-called “smart money”.
Taking the above into account, we can assume that large long-position holders are actively locking in profits after silver prices have risen by approximately 160% since the beginning of 2025. If this hypothesis proves correct, a break below the lower boundary of the orange ascending channel may follow, potentially leading to further downside movement as early as the first days of 2026.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice. X
Silver’s 2025 Explosion — How High Can It Go?In 2025, Silver ( OANDA:XAGUSD ) has experienced a remarkable surge, making it one of the most notable assets of the year. As we approach the end of 2025, I’ve decided to analyze silver to see how far its bullish trend might continue. So, stay with me as we delve into the reasons behind silver’s rise and explore how far this upward momentum could go.
Let’s begin by looking at the fundamental factors driving silver’s increase in 2025. After that, we’ll move on to the technical analysis.
Fundamental Drivers Behind Silver’s Massive 2025 Rally:
Structural Supply Deficit — Multi‑year deficits draining inventories, tight physical market.
Strong Industrial Demand — Solar, EVs, semiconductors & data centers consuming silver at record levels.
Rate Cut Expectations — Anticipated Fed easing lifts non‑yielding assets like silver.
Safe‑Haven Flows — Geopolitical risk, inflation, and a softer dollar boosting precious metals demand.
Liquidity & Momentum — Smaller market vs gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ) amplifies swings, attracting speculators.
Silver has surged ~ 150–165% YTD , setting fresh all‑time highs as both an industrial metal and investment hedge.
-----------------------
Technical Analysis:
Now, considering the technical side, with less than five days remaining before the six-month and one-year candles close, I’ll focus on a higher time frame for silver’s analysis. Recently, silver achieved a new all-time high, capturing widespread attention, and many prominent figures are now discussing silver’s potential.
From a classic technical analysis perspective on the six-month time frame, it appears that silver has formed a bullish continuation pattern, specifically a cup and handle pattern, and the recent six-month candle has broken the neckline/resistance zone($50-$34) with strong volume. This suggests that the bullish trend for silver is likely to continue.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, it seems that silver is completing wave 3, potentially within an ascending channel and a Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
I expect that silver, upon entering this Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , will undergo a correction. If you’re considering adding silver to your portfolio, it’s wise to wait for that correction, as buying at all-time highs can be riskier due to the strong upward momentum.
What do you think? How far can silver’s bullish trend extend, and what levels might we see in 2026?
💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.
📌 Silver/ U.S. Dollar Analyze (XAGUSD), 6-month time frame.
🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.
✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!
🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends. 
Long
Long 
Bitcoin ascending channel and Cups -Next cycle Cup entered ? YES
Bitcoin ascending channel and Cups -Next cycle Cup entered
PA entered channel in march 2017 and has never left, other than to go to ATH.
Bitcoin has spent more time in and above this channel than out of it.
Since entering channel, PA has always bounced off the lower line of channel
For the sake of this post, we are assuming that the current ATH is the final one this cycle.
Reasons why this maybe the case are listed below.
The Cups ( the yellow Semi Circles ) go from the ATH and the tops are Level, same price line. This is called the Neckline.
The Blue day count boxes are ATH to when PA broke through the neckline of the Cup.
2013 - 1211 days
2017 - 1106 days
2021 - 1120 days
The day count in grey boxes, below PA, are from when PA leaves the neckline of the Cup and goes to ATH of that "Cycle"
March 2017 to Dec 2017 - 266 days
Dec 2020 to Nov 2021 = 322 days
Dec 2024 to October 2025 - 308 days - This shows that PA is in the day count Range to have printed a cycle ATH maybe.
Please Note, the Cups are Not EXACT but close enough to show the idea intended here.
For instance, PA followed the Arc of the Cup from ATH in 2017 to when it touched the Lower trend line of the channel. It then bounced.
From the ATH in 2021, PA also followed the Arc of the Cup till it reached the Lower trendline , where it bounced...again.
It maybe worth noting that PA has not yet reached the upper trend line this time, and I have posted about this before, while talking about the "Blue Arc of resistance".....That has rejected EVERY ATH since Bitcoin was created.
IF PA has just been rejected off the latest ATH and is about to enter the Cup again, we have a more shallow drop, till we reach the lower trend line of the channel.
This will be in Feb 2026 at a price of around 60K -> 62K
Why would I think PA has just entered the Next Cup ?
ATH to next ATH day counts have been ( as shown in the upper Grey Day count Boxes )
2013 - 2017 = 1477 days
2017 - 2021 = 1428 days
2021 - 2025 = 1428 days - PA is again in the Day count Range to show that we Have have reached that point
There is Obviously the possibiity that PA will reach another ATH in 2026 and many, including me, say that things have changed and the 4 years Cycle is over.....
We shall see .but until then, I am watching this idea closely.
But again, I will mention, PA has not reached the upper trend line.......it may not.....
What ever does happen, this will be the first time the Tops of the Cup are Not BOTH in the channel, since the channel was fully entered by PA in 2017.
Since entering channel, Every ATH has been one FIB level higher than the previous
2017 just above 1 Fib
2021 just above 1.236 Fib
2015 just above 1.382 Fib
The Next Fib level, the 1.5, sits at a price line of 205700 USD
( 2013 ATH that set the upper trend line of channel was on the 0.618 Fib )
The Fact that PA has reached above that Fib line this cycle, is a day count similar to previous cycles, I do think we may have Topped.....and begun to enter the next Cup.
Just as a side note, Very interesting how From the 2013 ATH to when PA fell out of channel was 266 days ( Orange Box on Left og Main chart)
It was also exactly 266 days From when PA left the Top of the Cup and reached the New ATH in 2017. ( First lower Grey box on the left )
I think we are in for a VERY interesting 2026
HAPPY NEW YEAR to you all
Gold – Potential 2025 Annual High Zone (Ongoing Price Discovery)Gold – Potential 2025 Annual High Zone
Date: December 26, 2025
Current Spot Price: 4489
Context:
Gold remains in an active price discovery phase, and the 2025 annual high has not yet been fully established. Recent upside expansion confirms that the market is still searching for its final year-end equilibrium, rather than completing a confirmed distribution top.
Key Observation:
Based on updated macro structure, higher time-frame price behavior, and year-end liquidity dynamics, the potential annual high for Gold in 2025 is expected to form within the 4562 – 4566 zone.
This zone represents a probable exhaustion and evaluation area, not a confirmed top.
Important Note:
The annual high is still in development.
As long as price continues to accept above prior resistance levels, further upside exploration remains possible before a final yearly high is confirmed.
Analytical Framework:
• Higher time-frame context (macro & yearly structure)
• Ongoing price discovery, not completion
• Zone-based analysis, not point prediction
Invalidation / Reassessment:
If price fails to show rejection or structural hesitation within the 4562 – 4566 zone, a further reassessment of the annual high scenario will be required.
Notes:
This analysis is scenario-based and intended for long-term market documentation.
It does not represent a trading signal or financial advice.
Prepared by:
ShailoGold – Gold Market Analyst
#GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #GoldOutlook #MacroAnalysis #YearlyHigh #ShailoGold SPY – Dec 26 Trading Outlook | Trend Support vs Gamma Ceilingit’s now pressing into a zone where trend structure and GEX start to conflict. Tomorrow is about whether this pullback is a pause for continuation or the start of a deeper mean reversion.
Price action / structure (15m)
SPY remains in an intraday uptrend, respecting the rising trendline from the recent lows. However, the most recent push into the highs produced a clear CHoCH at the top, followed by rejection and consolidation just below resistance.
Price is currently compressing between the rising trendline and overhead supply. Momentum has slowed, and candles are getting smaller — typical behavior ahead of either a continuation breakout or a trendline failure.
Importantly, this is not aggressive selling. It’s controlled digestion.
Key levels to watch
Major resistance / supply: 690.8–691.0
This zone rejected price cleanly and aligns with the highest positive NETGEX / call resistance. Acceptance above this level is required for trend continuation.
Range pivot: 689.5–689.0
This is the balance point. As long as SPY holds above this zone, bulls still have control.
Trend support / line in the sand: 688.2–687.8
Loss of this area breaks the rising trend structure and likely shifts the day into a corrective move.
Downside magnet: 686.0–685.0
If trend support fails, this zone becomes the next high-probability draw, aligning with prior demand and lower GEX support.
GEX / options context
GEX is very clear here.
690 is the dominant gamma wall and highest positive NETGEX level. This explains why price stalled immediately after tagging it. Dealers are incentivized to keep SPY below this level into short-dated expiration.
Below price, gamma support is lighter until the mid-680s. That means if the trendline breaks, downside movement can accelerate faster than recent buyers expect.
IV remains compressed, and options positioning favors pinning rather than expansion unless price breaks cleanly above 691.
Scenarios for tomorrow
Bullish continuation scenario
SPY holds above 689 and breaks through 691 with acceptance and volume. If that happens, continuation toward 693–695 becomes viable, supported by trend strength and forced dealer hedging.
Bearish / corrective scenario
Failure to hold 688 followed by acceptance below the trendline opens the door to 686 first, potentially 685. This would be a controlled pullback, not a crash.
Chop scenario
If SPY stays between 689–691, expect frustrating chop and premium decay. This is the most likely outcome if volume remains muted.
Options thoughts
Avoid chasing premium inside the range.
More favorable setups:
Calls only on acceptance above 691
Puts only after confirmed loss of 688 and failed retest
Scalpers should focus on reactions at trendline and gamma levels rather than predicting direction.
Overall bias
Cautiously bullish while above trend support, but upside is capped until 691 breaks cleanly. SPY is strong, but it’s pressing directly into a gamma ceiling.
Hold the trend → continuation possible.
Lose the trend → clean pullback setup.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage risk and trade your own plan.
Long
$NVO Quality GIGA-LONNNNNNNGGGGG!!!This is a weekly of NVO, a global leader in pharmaceuticals addressing issues like obesity, diabetes, among other things. Ever hear of Ozempic? This company makes it. They also have other products in their pipeline which intend to capitalize on these growing epidemics, such as the recently approve ORAL version of Wegovy, a successful GLP-1 agonist. Anyway, back to the chart...You see a head and shoulders reversal at the top (red arcs); price then started forming a bear channel and remained in one for over a year; bear channels are bull flags, so the odds are that we get a bullish continuation once price breaks out to the upside; you see capitulation volume on the large bear weekly candle from July 28 of this year; then notice the retest of that level, forming a double-bottom (green arcs) on the weekly candle of Nov 24; the retest was on much lower volume, indicating supply has dried up, and price is ready for a move higher; Also, note the bullish MACD divergence on the lower pane (green upsloping line) as yet another CONFLUENCE (I hate that word); The Volume by Price indicator (horizontal lines to the left) shows a lot os support at the current levels as indicated by the proportion of green (buying) to grey (selling); I believe price will rotate higher and ultimately test the top of the head and shoulders from whence it came, implying a nearly 3X in price... This is one I would buy in a long-term account and let it marinate. An interesting combination value play AND growth play. Stop loss would be placed below the 2nd double-bottom at about $42...Take profit is $141. DO NOT TAKE THIS TRADE!!! DO NOT FOLLOW MY ADVICE!!! (DISCALIMER)....Merry Christmas from MrJosephTrades. Happy New Year as well... 
Long
Long
S&P 500 Index Approaches the 7,000-Point LevelOver the past five trading sessions, the U.S. equity index S&P 500 (SPX) has maintained a consistent bullish bias, posting gains of more than 2% in the short term and moving closer to the psychological 7,000-point level. For now, the index has managed to sustain firm buying pressure, supported by optimism around potential interest rate cuts in 2026 by the Federal Reserve. This scenario could foster a lower cost of borrowing, helping market liquidity remain stable while supporting investment and consumption—key pillars for equity market confidence. If this perception holds, it could continue to act as a positive catalyst allowing the SPX to maintain sustained buying pressure toward the close of 2025. As long as confidence remains in place, buying pressure may continue to shape short-term price action.
The Bullish Trend Holds
For several months now, the SPX has sustained a consistent bullish trend across its average price movements, keeping the index very close to the 7,000-point area. At this stage, no meaningful bearish corrections have emerged that would threaten the bullish technical structure, which remains the dominant formation to monitor. However, it is important to note that as prices have reached new highs in recent sessions, a sense of neutrality has begun to appear in price action. If this indecision persists, it could open the door to short-term bearish corrections.
RSI
At present, the RSI remains above the neutral 50 level, suggesting that average momentum over the past 14 sessions continues to favor buyers. However, a notable technical development has emerged: while the SPX price posts higher highs, the RSI shows lower highs, forming a bearish divergence. This pattern may signal a recent excess in buying pressure, increasing the likelihood of selling corrections in the coming trading sessions.
MACD
The MACD continues to display a histogram oscillating very close to the neutral zero line, reflecting persistent neutrality in short-term moving average momentum. If this behavior continues, it may point to an ongoing indecision phase in SPX price action, potentially allowing for a period of consolidation and the emergence of short-term pullbacks.
Key Levels to Watch
7,000 points – Key resistance: A major psychological level that stands out as the most relevant resistance given the lack of prior price references. Sustained moves above this area could trigger a more aggressive bullish bias and extend the current uptrend.
6,900 points – Nearby support: A level associated with the neutrality observed around recent all-time highs. Price action holding near this zone could reinforce a more stable consolidation phase and favor the formation of a short-term sideways range.
6,800 points – Major support: An area where the bullish trendline aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. Bearish moves below this level could put the broader bullish structure at risk and open the door to a more dominant selling bias in the sessions ahead.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst Gold smashes record highs: $4,500 next if prior record holds?Gold has exploded to new all-time highs this morning, breaking above the October peak of $4,380. But this isn't just a random holiday spike. It's the result of a specific macro mix hitting a thin, pre-Christmas market.
Here we analyse why a dovish Fed, persistent central bank buying, and geopolitical risks are fuelling this rally. We then map out the two-sided technical picture:
the bullish case for a run to $4,460–$4,500 based on an ascending triangle breakout
the bearish risk of a pullback toward $4,320 signalled by a 4-hour RSI divergence
Key drivers
Macro tailwinds: The market is pricing in a full Fed easing cycle for 2026 after three rate cuts this year, pushing down real yields and weakening the US dollar. This, combined with persistent central bank buying and geopolitical hedging, creates a strong fundamental bid for gold.
Low-liquidity breakout : Today's sharp move was amplified by lighter-than-average holiday trading volume. Once buy-stops above the previous high of $4,380 were triggered, there weren't enough sellers to absorb demand.
Technical structure : Gold has broken out of what appears to be an ascending triangle. The key support is now the prior high around $4,380. As long as this level holds, the bullish structure remains intact.
Upside targets : The measured move from the ascending triangle pattern projects a target near $4,460. A similar fractal pattern analysis also points toward $4,440. The next major psychological and Fibonacci level sits around $4,500.
Bearish divergence : A clear bearish divergence on the 4-hour RSI suggests that upside momentum is fading, which could trigger a corrective pullback. If the $4,380 support fails, a mean-reversion move toward the high-activity zone around $4,320 becomes possible.
Are you buying the dip toward $4,380 or looking to short the divergence? Share your gold trade plan in the comments and follow for more technical and macro analysis.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
NASDAQ100 vs BitcoinCryptocurrencies are still struggling to find strong bullish momentum, despite the rebound in stocks over the last few days after the US unemployment rate jumped and US CPI softened, as reported last week. These are ideal conditions for the Fed to consider more rate cuts in 2026, which explains why the dollar has been moving lower and stocks look more attractive.
Bitcoin, however, is not showing a clear bullish structure yet. If the NASDAQ 100 consolidates a bit longer through the Christmas and New Year holidays, it’s very possible that Bitcoin could retest the recent lows. As usual, we can expect correlations to normalize again later on, possibly in January, when the NASDAQ 100 could finally break higher into wave five. In the meantime, Bitcoin may still be trying to complete five waves down, with the black wave five potentially still unfolding.
Grega US 100 Index – Can the Year End Rally Continue?News released yesterday that Alphabet were going to buy data center partner Intersect in a deal worth around $5 billion to give it more power generation, alongside the on-going battle between Netflix and Paramount for Warner Bros has thrown the spotlight back on US stock indices, especially now that Larry Ellison, Chairman of Oracle and the world’s 5th richest man is now heavily involved in the deal.
Turning focus to the US 100 index, traders may now be wondering if it can turn its current 3 day winning streak into a longer string of daily gains, even pushing itself back up to challenge its record high set on October 30th at 26277, or whether the rally could run out of steam around current levels (25445, 0630 GMT).
With the Christmas Day holiday less than 48 hours away, today’s volatility driver could be the release of two pieces of US economic data. First up at 1330 GMT is the latest Q3 GDP growth update. Although it’s a second estimate, this could provide further insight into the current health of the US economy and shed some light on whether the market’s expectation of 2 further 25bps interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2026 is spot on, overblown or understated.
Then, next up is the US consumer confidence reading at 1500 GMT. This number has been under pressure in recent months with households worried about their financial situation and job security. Traders may be looking to see if the number has rebounded at all, which if it has, could be good news for spending and corporate profits over the important festive period.
Technical Update: Santa Rally Only Extends Sideways Range
If the latest 3.7% rally in the US 100 index from its December 17th low at 24644 can even be described as a “Santa rally,” it hasn’t so far at least brought too much in the way of Christmas cheer. As the chart below shows, price action is still trapped between the October 30th high at 26277 and the November 21st low at 23834, suggesting the index remains caught within a broad more balanced range at best.
As we move into the Christmas–New Year trading period, traders may be looking to identify key support and resistance levels to monitor in case a confirmed breakout triggers a more sustained move in the direction of the price break.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Following the latest price strength, the December 10th high at 25844 could now mark the first resistance level. While not a guarantee of further gains, closing breaks above 25844 may now be needed to open the way for additional price strength.
As the chart above shows, if the 25844 resistance were to give way on a closing basis the focus could then shift to the high from October 30th which stands at 26277. A break above that level could then open the way for scope for further upside.
Potential Support Levels:
Of course, the resistance levels highlighted above currently remain intact, and while they do price weakness can still emerge. If that happens, traders could be monitoring how the 25094 level is defended on a closing basis. This level represents half of the latest rally and could be the first support focus.
Closing breaks below 25094 could signal further price weakness, possibly leading to a test of 24644, which is the December 17th low. Closes below 24,644 could then warn of a deeper decline toward 23834.
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S&P500 breakout retest ?US equities remain in a constructive near-term setup. The S&P 500 rose another 0.64% yesterday, extending its winning streak to three sessions and leaving the index less than 0.5% below its record high. December has now turned positive again, keeping the S&P on track for an eighth consecutive monthly gain — a rare run last seen in 2018. Breadth was strong, with more than 75% of stocks advancing, and the Magnificent 7 also continued to recover, sitting just over 1% below their own highs.
That said, the key cross-asset headwind remains the relentless global bond sell-off. Yields pushed to fresh cycle highs globally, with Japan’s 10-year yield surging above 2% for the first time since 1999 and German Bund yields breaking above their March peak. While equities have so far shrugged this off, sustained upward pressure on yields remains a risk to valuation-sensitive sectors.
For today, attention turns to the final batch of US data before Christmas. The delayed Q3 GDP print is largely backward-looking, but December Conference Board consumer confidence will be more market-relevant after November fell to its weakest level since April’s turmoil. A stabilisation could help equities grind closer to record highs, while another downside surprise may test the market’s resilience given stretched positioning and elevated yields. Overall, momentum remains positive, but rates and sentiment data are the key swing factors for today’s S&P 500 trade.
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