AMP Futures - Create alerts on Fibonacci drawingsIn this idea we will demonstrate how to create alerts on Fibonacci drawings.
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#LTC Ready for Short Term Recovery. Don't Miss This OpportunityYello, Paradisers! Is #Litecoin quietly building momentum for a powerful rally, or is the market preparing one final shakeout? Let's view #LTC trading setup:
💎#LTCUSDT is currently showing a constructive bullish structure on the 4H timeframe after successfully defending a key ascending support trendline. Earlier, #Litecoin experienced a liquidity sweep below the local lows, removing weak hands before quickly recovering back above support. This type of price action often signals that larger market participants are accumulating positions while retail traders get trapped on the wrong side of the market.
💎The ascending trendline continues to act as dynamic support, while the major support zone is located around $41.70-$42.00. As long as the price remains above this area, buyers maintain control of the short-term market structure. The recent sequence of higher lows further suggests that bullish momentum is gradually building beneath resistance.
💎The most important level to monitor now is the resistance zone around $43.80-$44.00. This area has repeatedly capped price advances and currently represents the key barrier preventing a larger upside expansion. Additional confirmation would come from the 50 EMA continuing to hold as dynamic support after the breakout. If buyers can achieve this confirmation, the first upside objective is the moderate resistance zone near $47.15. This level coincides with an important high-volume area where sellers may attempt to slow down the advance.
💎Should bullish momentum remain strong and price successfully overcome the $47.15 resistance, #LTCUSD could open the door toward the major resistance zone around $50.46. This represents the next significant target where profit-taking activity may become more aggressive.
💎From a momentum perspective, the MACD is already showing encouraging signs as a bullish crossover has developed. At the same time, the histogram continues to expand positively, indicating that bullish momentum is strengthening. On the downside, traders should closely monitor the strong demand zone around $40.46. A breakdown below this level would invalidate the current bullish setup.
Trade smart, Paradisers. This setup will reward only the disciplined.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
Long
POSSIBLE EUR/JPY ROADMAP?On the Monthly chart of EUR/JPY you'll see three separate cycle brackets coloured Green, Red & Orange, all over different lengths of time, all highlighting major/minor High's & Low's of this market over a 24 year period of time.
The yellow lines highlight the measured moves and how the length of these moves keep repeating before the market turns from the high to low of each move. To highlight this place a horizontal line at the top & bottom of each yellow line to roughly find the top and bottom of each move in length.
Take note of the black dashed vertical lines. It appears that when any TWO of the three coloured cycle brackets both converge and meet at the bottoming phase of the cycle a high or low is formed in this market. The next convergence of any two of the coloured cycle brackets is between the years of 2034-2036.
Regarding the future, the GREEN cycle bracket appears to highlight either a major or minor high or low on this chart when entering the bottoming phase of this cycle bracket. The next bottoming phase on this 'GREEN' cycle is around the September-October 2027 time period. Could this be the next major high or low, only time will tell? For any potential minor highs and low's follow the Orange & Red cycle brackets into the future as you'll see in the past both have continuously marked turning points.
Keep in mind when analysing 'TIME', tolerance must be given. So the High or Low could come in a month or two previous or post the potential September-October forecast on the GREEN cycle. There are no certainties, only higher and lower probabilities in trading.
It's also key to point out that no market goes up or down in straight lines, so potential pullbacks and consolidation periods are expected if this market is to reach the higher target stated.
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #307👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro!
Let’s dive into the Bitcoin analysis. Today, the market is testing a very important resistance level.
⌛️ Time Frame: 1H
After finding support at 61,022, Bitcoin started a bullish move toward the 63,978 resistance level. Since reaching this area, price has entered a consolidation phase and formed a local support level at 62,933.
💡 The RSI has also established support around the 50 level. If RSI breaks and closes below this area, bearish momentum could enter the market and increase the probability of a breakdown below 62,933.
🔍 In that case, a risky short position could be considered on the break of 62,933, in line with the higher-timeframe trend. The main short trigger, however, remains 61,022.
✔️ On the bullish side, a break above 63,978 could trigger a deeper corrective move toward 67,322, giving us a risky long opportunity. If you decide to take this trade, it’s better to use a tight stop loss and secure profits quickly, since it goes against the primary market trend and overall volume is still declining.
🔔 That said, if RSI enters the overbought zone and buying volume starts to increase, bullish momentum could strengthen significantly, making the long setup much more reliable.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Why Higher Timeframes Control Lower Timeframe MovesThe 15m chart can show your entry. The higher timeframe decides if that entry is fighting the real move.
🔵 Higher Timeframe Is The Map
Many traders make the same mistake. They open the 5m or 15m chart, find a small support level, and enter like that level controls the whole market. Then price breaks through it easily, and they wonder why the setup failed.
The problem is not always the entry. The problem is the context. A lower timeframe level can look clean by itself, but if it sits against a strong daily or 4H zone, the trade can be weak before it even starts.
Higher timeframes show the bigger structure. They show where the main trend is going, where the stronger support and resistance zones are, and where price may react with more force. Lower timeframes show smaller movement inside that bigger picture.
If the higher timeframe is bullish, shorting every small 15m resistance can become dangerous. If the higher timeframe is bearish, buying every small 15m support can become weak. The smaller chart may give a reaction, but the bigger chart usually decides how much power that reaction has.
🔵 Big Levels Carry More Weight
A 15m support level may hold for a few candles. A daily support level may hold for days, weeks, or even longer. That difference matters.
Higher timeframe levels usually come from larger moves and bigger reactions. More traders can see them, more orders can sit around them, and more important decisions may happen there. This is why a daily support zone is usually more important than a small intraday support level.
This does not mean lower timeframe levels are useless. They can be very useful for entries, stops, and short-term trades. But they should not be treated like they have the same strength as a level from the 4H, daily, or weekly chart. A simple way to think about it is this: the higher the timeframe, the bigger the story behind the level. The lower the timeframe, the smaller the local reaction.
🔵 Lower Timeframes Are For Entries
Lower timeframes work best when they are used for timing, not for building the whole idea. For example, a trader may mark a 4H support zone first, then go to the 15m chart to wait for a clean reaction, market structure shift, or retest.
That is different from opening the 15m chart first and guessing direction from small candles. The first approach uses lower timeframe detail inside a bigger plan. The second approach often makes the trader react to every small move.
This is where lower timeframes become powerful. They help you enter with better timing while the higher timeframe gives the reason for the trade. The 15m chart should support the bigger idea, not fight it.
So is the lower timeframe wrong? No. It is just weaker when used alone.
🔵 When Timeframes Fight Each Other
A lot of losing trades happen when traders ignore timeframe conflict. The 15m chart shows a small bullish setup, but the 4H chart is pushing into strong resistance. The trader buys the small breakout, but price rejects from the larger zone and drops. From the 15m view, the trade may look fair. From the higher timeframe view, it looks like buying into a wall.
This is why top-down analysis matters. Before taking a lower timeframe trade, check where price is on the higher timeframe. Is it near major support? Is it near major resistance? Is it inside a range? Is it moving with the bigger trend or directly against it?
The lower timeframe can still win sometimes, but the trade is usually harder. You are trading against a bigger zone, and that means the reaction can be sharper than expected.
🔵 Simple Rule For Multi-Timeframe Trading
The cleanest way to use timeframes is simple. Use the higher timeframe for direction and key zones. Use the lower timeframe for entry and execution.
For many traders, that can look like this: weekly or daily for major zones, 4H for structure, and 15m for entry timing. You do not need ten charts open. Too many timeframes can make the analysis messy.
The goal is to know who is in control before you enter. If the higher timeframe is bullish and price is reacting from a strong support zone, lower timeframe long setups make more sense. If the higher timeframe is bearish and price is rejecting from resistance, lower timeframe short setups make more sense.
A small chart can show the trigger, but the bigger chart should explain why the trigger matters.
🔵 Final Take
Higher timeframes control lower timeframe moves because they show the bigger trend, stronger zones, and main market context. The lower timeframe helps with entry. The higher timeframe tells you if that entry is worth taking.
Trade the small chart, but respect the big one.
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SpaceX IPO to Mint First-Ever Trillionaire. And More Wild Stuff.Wall Street loves a big number. Elon Musk loves an even bigger one. And today, SpaceX's NASDAQ:SPCX upcoming IPO may deliver the biggest figure of them all. Mark your IPO calendar . It’s here.
( Oh, and excuse the blank screen above. That'll change once the shares drop for trading. )
With the company preparing for what could become the largest stock market debut in history , trading communities are talking about something that even today sounds like science fiction: the world's first trillionaire.
According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index , Elon Musk's fortune was at just under $700 billion on Thursday, shortly before the $75 billion IPO raise was a success. Now that figure, his personal net worth, is $971 billion.
💰 A Record IPO with Record Stakes
Later today, SpaceX will sell 555 million shares priced at $135. Take it or leave it. The share price will value the company at $1.75 trillion.
For perspective, that valuation would tower over previous blockbuster listings and catapult the company into the top ten of the world’s largest companies .
The reason investors are paying attention extends beyond rockets, satellites, and dreams of Mars colonies. Musk owns approximately 4.8 billion SpaceX shares, representing roughly 42% of the company's common stock. He also holds around 350 million stock options with an exercise price of $8.39 per share (that’s $44 billion if the share price hits $135).
If SpaceX opens at the proposed IPO price, all these stakes combined would be worth roughly $860 billion, according to the updated IPO prospectus .
Add Musk's existing ownership in Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA (13% stake worth about $350 billion), Tesla stock options (about $100 billion), plus stakes in Neuralink and The Boring Company, and suddenly that trillion-dollar milestone begins to look… very real.
📊 The Financials Tell Two Stories
SpaceX's IPO filing finally gives investors a detailed look under the hood.
Last year, the company generated $18.6 billion in revenue while posting a net loss of $4.9 billion. During the first quarter of this year, revenue reached $4.7 billion and losses totaled $4.3 billion.
At first glance, those losses may raise eyebrows.
At second glance, investors quickly notice that many of today's market darlings spent years prioritizing growth over profits.
SpaceX continues pouring enormous amounts of capital into rockets, satellite infrastructure, artificial intelligence projects, and long-term ambitions that stretch far beyond the next quarterly earnings report.
The balance sheet shows $102 billion in assets alongside $60.5 billion in debt, reflecting the immense cost of building businesses that operate both on Earth and beyond (to infinity?).
🛰️ More Than Rockets and Satellites
What makes SpaceX unique is the variety of businesses operating under one roof.
There is the launch business that sends astronauts and payloads into orbit. There is Starlink, which has become a major global satellite internet provider. Then there is the growing AI component that emerged following the integration of xAI into the broader ecosystem.
Investors are effectively buying exposure to several rapidly growing industries at once, which helps explain why enthusiasm surrounding the offering has reached fever pitch.
Whether that excitement ultimately proves justified remains one of the biggest questions facing the market.
👨🚀 The Unexpected Millionaires
The surprise winners, however, are not billionaire founders or venture capital firms.
SpaceX employs roughly 22,000 people, and thousands of current and former employees hold equity received as part of their compensation packages.
According to estimates from investment platform Hill.com, more than 4,400 current and former employees could become millionaires through the IPO. Around 400 individuals may cross the $100 million mark.
Behind every rocket launch sits an army of engineers, technicians, operations specialists, and support staff. Some spent years working long shifts at launch facilities. Others helped build spacecraft in giant manufacturing complexes.
For many of them, those stock grants are about to become life-changing.
That lady who’s been serving Musk coffee at the cafeteria all these years? Millionaire status.
Off to you : Now that the spectacular SpaceX IPO is almost here, how do you feel about it? Pop or flop?
2140 : bitcoin after 21 millionWhat Happens When The Last Bitcoin Is Mined?
The weird thing about Bitcoin is that its biggest moment may happen long after everyone reading this is gone.
Not the ETF approvals.
Not the all-time highs.
Not even governments adopting it.
The real endgame is somewhere around the year 2140… when the final Bitcoin gets mined.
That sounds dramatic at first. Almost apocalyptic. Like the network suddenly shuts down, miners disappear, and the chart flatlines forever.
But the reality is far more interesting.
Because when the last Bitcoin is mined, Bitcoin may stop behaving like a speculative asset… and start behaving like a completed monetary system.
Right now Bitcoin still has inflation.
Most people never think about that because compared to fiat currencies it is tiny, but new BTC is still entering circulation every single day through mining rewards. After the 2024 halving, miners earn 3.125 BTC per block, and that reward keeps shrinking every four years until eventually it reaches zero around 2140.
That means the Bitcoin network is slowly approaching absolute scarcity.
Not “limited supply” marketing.
Actual mathematical finality.
No central bank meeting can change it.
No emergency stimulus can print more.
No politician can vote to increase the cap.
Chart #1 Bitcoin vs Fiat Supply
The Ultimate Macro Divergence
The Endless Money Printer (Red): Tracks a conservative 5% compound annual expansion of global fiat M2 money supplies. On a logarithmic scale, it displays the compounding runaway expansion built into un-capped currency frameworks.
The Fixed Ledger (Orange): In stark contrast, the solid orange curve hits a strict wall at the 100% capacity limit line. It cannot adapt or expand to meet increasing demand.
The Terminal Disconnect: Looking toward the year 2140, this chart demonstrates the ultimate shift in purchasing power: a monetary collision between a currency with an infinite supply ceiling and an asset with absolute mathematical finality.
One day, the supply schedule simply ends.
And that changes everything.
Chart #2: Bitcoin Supply Curve (21 Million Cap)
The Asymptotic Hard Cap (2009–2140 Horizon)
The Algorithmic Flattening: The solid orange line maps the lifetime distribution of Bitcoin supply. Notice the aggressive vertical climb during the first three halving eras, which rapidly transitions into an inflexible horizontal plateau.
The 99.9% Reality Check: The central visual insight challenges popular assumptions. Due to the geometric decay of block rewards, 99.9% of all 21 million Bitcoins will enter circulation long before the year 2140 leaving the final century of emission to fight over the last remaining fractions of a percent.
The Zero Threshold: The dashed red ceiling line marks the terminal boundary. In roughly 114 years, issuance drops below a single Satoshi, permanently locking global supply at its absolute limit.
The First Thing Most People Get Wrong
Mining does NOT stop after the last Bitcoin is mined.
This is the biggest misconception in crypto.
Miners are not really paid to “create Bitcoin.”
They are paid to secure the network.
Right now they get compensated in two ways:
newly issued BTC (block rewards)
transaction fees
After 2140, the first part disappears. The second remains.
So Bitcoin miners will still exist. Blocks will still be validated. Transactions will still be processed.
The network continues.
The only difference is that miners become fully dependent on transaction fees.
That means Bitcoin eventually transforms from an inflation-funded security model into a usage-funded security model.
And honestly… that transition has already started.
Chart #3: Miner Revenue Shift
The Structural Inversion of Miner Economics
The Subsidy Decay (Red): Models the continuous programmatic halving of newly minted block rewards. It acts as an absolute, one-way countdown from 100% network reliance down to zero.
The Fee Market Security Floor (Green): Traces the necessary rise of transaction fee dominance required to protect the network's processing power over the next century.
The Mid-Century Inversion Point: The vertical dashed timeline marks the critical milestone where block space pivots from a subsidized network into a premium transaction fee marketplace. Beyond this point, miners survive entirely on network utility rather than inflation.
Bitcoin Quietly Becomes Harder Than Gold
Gold still has inflation.
New gold gets mined every year. More supply enters circulation constantly.
Bitcoin is different.
Once the last BTC is mined, the supply becomes frozen forever.
Actually, not forever.
Technically it becomes even scarcer over time because lost wallets permanently remove coins from circulation.
Forgotten seed phrases.
Dead wallets.
Coins lost in old hard drives.
Dormant addresses that never move again.
Those BTC effectively vanish.
Which creates something the world has never really seen before:
A monetary asset with a permanently shrinking liquid supply.
That’s why many Bitcoin believers compare it less to tech stocks and more to digital property or digital gold.
The Real Battle: Can Fees Alone Secure Bitcoin?
This is where the debate gets serious.
Critics argue that transaction fees alone may not be enough to keep miners profitable in the distant future. If mining becomes unprofitable, fewer miners secure the network, potentially making Bitcoin more vulnerable to attacks or centralization.
Supporters argue the opposite.
They believe Bitcoin’s value and global importance will be so massive by then that transaction fees from large settlements, institutions, and financial infrastructure will easily sustain miners.
In other words:
Bitcoin today is still paying miners through inflation.
Bitcoin tomorrow may pay miners through economic importance.
That is a completely different phase of the network.
And honestly, this might be one of the biggest macroeconomic experiments in modern history.
Bitcoin May Stop Acting Like A Currency
Here’s the uncomfortable thought nobody in crypto likes discussing:
What if Bitcoin eventually becomes too valuable to spend casually?
If supply is permanently capped while demand keeps growing, every Satoshi becomes more important over time.
People may become less willing to spend BTC on everyday purchases and more likely to treat it like reserve collateral.
Almost like digital Manhattan real estate.
You don’t buy coffee with prime skyscrapers.
You hold them.
Meanwhile, smaller transactions could move onto second-layer systems like the Lightning Network while the Bitcoin base layer becomes a high-value global settlement network.
That changes how traders should think about Bitcoin entirely.
Not as “internet money.”
But as financial infrastructure.
The Market Psychology Will Be Wild
The closer Bitcoin gets to full supply exhaustion, the more psychological scarcity may matter.
We already see it after halvings.
Every halving reduces sell pressure from miners. Less fresh BTC enters circulation. Historically, that tightening of supply has become part of Bitcoin’s narrative cycles.
Now imagine that dynamic stretched over decades.
Eventually markets may stop pricing Bitcoin as an emerging asset and start pricing it as a permanently finite reserve asset.
That shift alone could completely change volatility behavior, institutional participation, and even how governments interact with it.
Or maybe not.
That’s the beauty of Bitcoin.
Nobody truly knows.
Even Reddit discussions around the topic show how divided people are. Some think fees will sustain the network forever, while others believe Bitcoin will need major adaptation long before 2140.
The Irony Nobody Talks About
The final Bitcoin being mined probably will not feel dramatic at all.
No explosion.
No countdown clock.
No cinematic ending.
Because Bitcoin is designed to evolve slowly.
By the time the last BTC arrives, the market would have spent generations adapting to lower issuance. The transition happens gradually through halvings, not suddenly in 2140.
Which means the real story is not the final Bitcoin.
The real story is the transformation that happens before it.
Bitcoin slowly moving from:
speculative asset
to digital gold
to global collateral
to financial infrastructure
That may end up being one of the most important economic transitions of the century.
put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
Education
Gold Sheds 30% from Peak, Bitcoin Wipes Out 50%. Why So Serious?At first glance, these two should move opposite to one another. Inverse correlation. Unless, interest rates are involved.
Here’s how and why prospects of higher borrowing costs hurt both gold OANDA:XAUUSD and Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD at the same time. The safe haven and the risk asset walk into a bar...
Gold has plunged nearly 30% from its January peak near $5,600 an ounce, sliding to around $4,100 earlier today.
Bitcoin has fared even worse, tumbling more than 50% from its record high of $126,000 .
💰 The Opportunity Cost Problem
Let's start with gold. Gold doesn't pay interest. It doesn't distribute dividends. It simply sits there looking shiny and historically reliable.
That works wonderfully when interest rates are low because investors aren't giving up much by holding it. Things change when rates rise. Or are expected to.
If government bonds suddenly offer attractive yields, investors begin comparing those guaranteed returns with an asset that produces no income. Economists call this "opportunity cost," which is simply the benefit you're giving up by choosing one investment over another.
The higher rates climb, the more expensive it becomes to hold non-yielding assets like gold.
That's one reason precious metals have struggled to perform as haven assets during war times as inflation concerns pushed investors to expect tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Silver OANDA:XAGUSD is in the same boat (or underwater under the boat).
₿ Bitcoin Has Its Own Rate Problem
Bitcoin faces a different challenge. Unlike gold, Bitcoin is often treated as a risk asset, meaning investors buy it when confidence is high and liquidity is overflowing. Higher interest rates tend to drain both confidence and liquidity.
When borrowing costs rise, consumers spend less, businesses invest less, and investors become more selective about where they deploy capital. The easy-money environment that usually helps to fuel crypto rallies starts to fade.
Think of it as turning down the volume at a party. The music is still playing, but fewer people are dancing.
Bitcoin's decline from $126,000 to roughly $60,000 reflects that shift in sentiment. The current major support zone around $60,000 continues to attract buyers, though some analysts see room for a deeper slide toward $40,000 if selling pressure intensifies.
🔥 Inflation Is Back in the Conversation
Adding another pro-hike layer to the story is inflation.
President Donald Trump raised eyebrows this week after commenting, "I love the inflation," following data showing annual consumer inflation ECONOMICS:USCPI reached 4.2%, the highest level in three years .
The backdrop is that escalating tensions in the Middle East have driven oil prices TVC:UKOIL higher, increasing concerns that inflation could remain stubbornly elevated.
For central banks, that’s an easy choice. Higher inflation requires tighter monetary policy. Tighter monetary policy usually means higher interest rates or, at minimum, fewer rate cuts than investors had hoped for.
Neither gold nor Bitcoin enjoys that environment.
📊 The Labor Market Isn't Helping
Last week's jobs report ECONOMICS:USNFP added fuel to the fire. The US economy added 172,000 jobs , crushing expectations of roughly 85,000.
Strong employment data sounds positive, and for the economy it often is. For markets hoping for easier monetary policy, it complicates things.
A strong labor market can support wage growth, consumer spending, and inflation. That gives the Federal Reserve fewer reasons to ease financial conditions.
Money markets currently assign an overwhelming probability that rates remain unchanged at the Fed’s meeting next week (ref: Economic calendar ). Traders see a meaningful chance of a rate hike by October.
🐻 What Comes After a Bear Market?
Investors often define a correction as a 10% decline and a bear market as a 20% drop.
Gold's 28% decline and Bitcoin's 50% collapse point to something more severe than a routine pullback.
Off to you : What comes after a bear market? An opportunity to buy the dip or wait for a new dip?
The Cycle of Market Participants ExplainedThe market is no longer "Wall Street vs Main Street. It is a complex group of various market participant groups. Each group trades or invests long term for different reasons. Each group leaves distinctly different "foot prints" on the stock chart. Giant Buy Side Institutions are long term investors investing for the pension fund holders of all the major corporations in the US and in other countries. HFTs are the Maker/Takers who provide liquidity to the Exchanges and thus trade on the public exchanges only. Sell Side Institutions Make the Market and trade wherever they are needed to Make the Market which is for every buy order there is a seller, for every sell order, there is a buyer or buy to cover as the Sell Side sells short much of the time. There are 4 different types of Professional Traders. Some are independent and others are companies providing trading services ONLY to the Buy Side Institutions. Small Funds Managers, Small Asset Management companies, Small Hedge Funds companies are all on the retail side. The Global Asset Management companies such as BlackRock are a separate market group as unlike the Giant Buy Side aka Dark Pools, The Global Asset Management companies are PUBLIC companies. Therefore their buying or selling is about their revenues and earnings rather than a focus on improving the ROI of their retail investors. The Cycle of Market Participants is a critical Cycle to learn and understand. The Dynamics of this cycle impact your profit and losses. Most of the time, retail traders are trading against Smaller funds managers, other retail traders, HFTs, or professional traders. That means more losses and lower profits.
Education
USNAS100 | PSYCHOLOGY BEHIND A 34% RALLY WITHOUT CORRECTIONUSNAS100 | THE PSYCHOLOGY OF A MARKET THAT REFUSED TO CORRECT FOR 34%
1. Introduction
Since the March 31st low near 22,920, the Nasdaq has experienced an extraordinary rally, climbing approximately 34% and reaching a new all-time high around 30,770.
What's fascinating about this move is not the gain itself.
It's the fact that the market achieved this advance without experiencing a meaningful correction.
For more than two months, every dip was bought, every pullback was viewed as an opportunity, and every bearish signal was quickly absorbed by aggressive buying pressure.
As traders, we often focus on price action and technical levels.
But sometimes the most important thing to analyze is market psychology.
And right now, Nasdaq may be entering one of the most important psychological phases of its entire rally.
2. Why Markets Need Corrections
• One of the biggest misconceptions among traders is that a correction is something negative.
In reality, corrections are a natural and necessary component of every healthy trend.
• Without corrections, markets become crowded.
• Late buyers continue entering positions at increasingly higher prices.
• Profits become concentrated among early participants.
• Risk perception disappears.
• Eventually, the market reaches a point where there are simply fewer buyers left to push prices higher.
• This is often when the first meaningful correction begins.
• Not because the trend is weak.
• But because the trend became too strong for too long.
3. The Problem With Vertical Rallies
• The Nasdaq rally from 22,920 to 30,770 resembles what traders often call a "one-sided market."
• Throughout the rally, sellers repeatedly attempted to regain control.
• Yet each attempt failed.
• As a result, market participants gradually became conditioned to believe that every decline would immediately recover.
• This creates a dangerous psychological environment.
• The longer a market refuses to correct, the more investors begin to believe that it cannot correct.
• History repeatedly shows that this is often when risk becomes greatest.
• Not at the bottom.
• But near the top.
4. Has Sentiment Started To Change?
Friday's sharp decline may represent the first meaningful challenge to bullish confidence since the rally began.
For the first time in weeks, sellers managed to create a significant rejection from all-time highs.
While one bearish session alone does not confirm a major trend reversal, it does introduce something that has been missing for months:
• Uncertainty.
• And uncertainty is often the first ingredient of a correction phase.
The market is beginning to ask a question it has not needed to ask for a long time:
• "What if the next dip is not immediately bought?"
5. How Deep Could The Correction Be?
Not all corrections are equal.
Historically, strong bull markets often experience several types of pullbacks before the broader trend resumes.
Tier 1: Minor Pullback (-3% to -5%)
• This is the most common scenario and usually represents profit-taking after an extended rally.
• A correction of this size would place Nasdaq near the 28,490 demand zone, allowing the market to cool down while maintaining a strong bullish structure.
Tier 2: Standard Retest (-7% to -10%)
• This type of correction typically occurs when investors begin reducing risk exposure after a prolonged advance.
• Such a move would bring price toward the 27,000 demand zone, where buyers may attempt to rebuild momentum.
Tier 3: The Flush (-12% to -15%)
• This is the scenario that most traders do not expect during a bull market.
• Flush corrections often occur when market participants become overly confident after a long rally and positioning becomes crowded.
• A decline of this magnitude could drive the Nasdaq toward the 26,200 major demand zone, where long-term buyers may begin accumulating again.
CORRECTION SCENARIOS
Tier 1: Minor Pullback
(-3% to -5%)
Target: 28,490
Tier 2: Standard Retest
(-7% to -10%)
Target: 27,000
Tier 3: The Flush
(-12% to -15%)
Target: 26,200
6. Technical Structure
The rejection occurred directly from the major supply zone between 29,610 and 30,720.
This area has now become the most important resistance region on the chart.
As long as the index remains below this zone, the probability of additional downside pressure remains elevated.
The first significant demand area can be found near 28,490.
A break below this level would likely increase the probability of a deeper correction toward 27,000.
If selling pressure accelerates further, the market could eventually seek liquidity within the major demand zone around 26,200.
From a broader perspective, even a decline toward 26,200 would still represent a normal correction within the larger bullish structure that began from the March low.
7. Final Thoughts
• The most interesting question facing Nasdaq traders today is not whether the market can reach another all-time high.
• Eventually, it probably can.
• The more important question is whether the market first needs to reset expectations after a historic 34% advance.
• Strong trends require strong corrections.
• The longer a correction is delayed, the more significant it often becomes once it finally arrives.
• After months of relentless buying, Friday's selloff may be the market's first signal that a long-awaited rebalancing phase has begun.
• The coming weeks will reveal whether this is merely profit-taking—or the beginning of the first real correction after one of the strongest rallies of the year.
Sincerely, Srosh Mayi
Short
Bitcoin Is Testing the Floor — Not Starting a New Bull RunEveryone is waiting for the next Bitcoin bounce, but when I look at the weekly chart, I see something very different. BTC is currently sitting on a major support zone around 58k–62k USD, and this area is now under serious pressure. In the past, this zone acted as an important reaction area, but the way price is coming into it now does not look healthy to me. This does not look like a strong market retesting support with momentum. It looks more like a tired market trying to hold one of the last key levels before a larger move lower becomes possible.
Right now, I see two main scenarios. Scenario 1, to which I give around 25% probability, is a fast breakdown. In this case, Bitcoin loses the current support zone, fails to recover, and starts moving directly toward my main buy zone between 35k–48k USD. If this support breaks cleanly, I do not see a strong reason to expect an immediate miracle recovery. There may be small reactions on the way down, but structurally the chart would open the door to much lower prices. For me, the real opportunity is not here. The real opportunity would be lower.
Scenario 2, to which I give around 75% probability, is a bounce first and pain later. This is my main scenario at the moment. BTC may still defend the current zone for a while, and we could easily see a short-term bounce of a few percent. The market could create another fake sense of safety, especially for people who want to believe that every green candle is automatically the bottom. But unless Bitcoin reclaims the key moving averages and the previous market structure, I would treat that bounce as nothing more than a technical reaction inside a bearish setup. A bounce does not automatically mean the bull market is back. It may simply be another opportunity for the market to trap late buyers before continuing lower.
My current BTC levels are simple: 58k–62k USD is the current major support zone, 50k–55k USD is the next reaction area, and 35k–48k USD is my main buy zone. I am not interested in chasing weak bounces in the middle of a breakdown structure. I would rather preserve capital and wait for a real opportunity than buy just because BTC has already dropped.
The bigger issue is that this is not only about Bitcoin. The macro backdrop is also becoming more fragile. The S&P 500 is sitting in a risky area as well, and if equities start correcting, crypto will not exist in some magical separate universe. Bitcoin may be a long-term monetary asset, but in moments of market stress, it often behaves like a risk asset. If the S&P 500 starts losing momentum, the first major downside level I am watching is around 6900. If that level fails, the next important zone is around 6300. A move toward 6900 would already put pressure on risk assets, but a deeper move toward 6300 could create real stress across tech stocks, crypto, altcoins, and Bitcoin.
That is why I do not want to chase BTC here. Yes, it can bounce. Yes, it can look strong for a few days. Yes, people will call every green candle “the bottom”. But from my perspective, the bigger structure remains bearish until proven otherwise. My view is simple: 25% probability for a fast breakdown directly into the 35k–48k buy zone, and 75% probability for a bounce or sideways action first, followed by another move lower.
For me, this setup is not about emotions, hope, or trying to catch every small move. It is about waiting for the right risk/reward. The main BTC buy zone remains 35k–48k USD, and the key S&P 500 risk levels I am watching are 6900 and 6300. Until the chart proves real strength, I remain defensive.
Not financial advice. Just my personal technical view.
Short
IPO Season at Fever Pitch — But How to Trade Those Stocks?Wall Street is staring at a lineup that feels almost too good to be true.
With upcoming debuts from companies like SpaceX NASDAQ:SPCX ( as soon as Friday ), Anthropic , and OpenAI , investors are sharpening their pencils, refreshing apps, and daydreaming about catching the next big winner before it becomes a household name.
It's easy to understand the excitement. Artificial intelligence has powered stock indexes to record highs , and many traders see these IPOs as front-row tickets to the next chapter of the technology boom.
The challenge is that IPOs often arrive wrapped in equal parts opportunity and chaos.
🎢 Day One Is Usually a Roller Coaster
Imagine showing up to a concert where nobody knows the ticket price, the seating chart, or whether the headline act will actually appear on stage. That's often what IPO day feels like.
Many newly public companies experience enormous volatility. Volatility simply means prices move up and down aggressively in a short period of time.
Investors rush in, institutions adjust positions, analysts publish reports, and social media suddenly becomes filled with armchair valuation experts. Let’s look at history.
Shares of Facebook NASDAQ:META stumbled badly after the company’s 2012 IPO . Within months, the stock had lost roughly half its value. Investors who bought solely because everyone else was buying faced a painful lesson in patience.
Those who focused on the business rather than the headlines eventually saw one of the greatest recoveries in modern market history.
🧠 The First Rule: Buy the Business, Not the Buzz
Every IPO comes with a compelling story.
The story might involve artificial intelligence, quantum computing, space travel, robotics, or some combination of all four. Stories attract attention. Revenue, profits, and growth sustain stock prices over the long run.
Before buying any IPO, traders should ask a simple question:
What exactly does this company do, and how does it make money?
That question sounds boring. But boring questions often save investors a lot of money.
When Google NASDAQ:GOOGL went public in 2004, investors could clearly see a dominant search business generating substantial revenue. The technology was exciting, but the business model was equally compelling.
The strongest IPOs usually combine both.
⏳ Sometimes the Best Trade Is Waiting
One of the most underrated IPO strategies involves doing absolutely nothing for a few weeks.
Newly public stocks often experience a "price discovery" period. This is the market's way of figuring out what a company is worth once public investors start weighing in.
Many successful companies delivered better entry points after their IPO excitement faded. In other words, wait to buy the dip.
Shares of Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA spent years moving sideways before becoming a market superstar. Investors who waited for the dust to settle had multiple opportunities to build positions.
Patience rarely trends on social media, yet it remains one of the market's most valuable skills.
💰 Position Size Matters More Than Excitement
A hot IPO can make traders feel invincible before the opening bell even rings. That is precisely why position sizing is hugely important .
Position sizing means deciding how much capital to risk on a single trade. Even if an IPO looks like the opportunity of a lifetime, treating it as one piece of a broader portfolio helps keep emotions under control.
Markets have a remarkable ability to humble certainty. A small position allows traders to participate while preserving capital if the market decides to write a different script.
📚 Look for Useful Clues
Some of the greatest public companies experienced messy starts.
Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN endured brutal drawdowns during the dot-com crash. Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX spent years proving its business model before becoming a market giant.
Investors who focused exclusively on the opening-week excitement often missed the bigger story unfolding in front of them.
🎯 The Takeaway
The upcoming IPO wave (ref: IPO calendar ) could offer tremendous opportunities. Last week’s newly-public companies, for example, are operating in industries that may shape the next decade of innovation. We’re talking quantum player Quantinuum $QTN and gas engine maker Innio $INIO.
At the same time, successful IPO trading has surprisingly little to do with adrenaline and surprisingly much to do with discipline.
Study the business. Understand the valuation. Size positions sensibly. Give prices room to breathe and settle. Keep a healthy distance from the crowd when excitement reaches maximum volume.
Off to you : Do you plan to participate in the SpaceX NASDAQ:SPCX spectacle once shares drop for trading? Share your strategy in the comments!
Education
Eli Lilly Breaks Above Key Resistance as Uptrend StrengthensLLY is attracting renewed buying interest following a healthy pullback, with the stock successfully reclaiming and closing above the key $1,114 resistance level for the second time. The shares remain in a strong uptrend, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, while continuing to trade above both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
Eli Lilly and Company is a $1.06 trillion pharmaceutical leader focused on the discovery, development, manufacturing, and commercialization of therapies across diabetes, oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and other therapeutic areas.
The company possesses a wide economic moat supported by its strong portfolio of innovative medicines, robust research capabilities, and significant scale advantages. Financial performance remains impressive, with revenue and earnings per share growing over the last three quarters. Profitability metrics are exceptional, with operating and net margins of 49% and 37%, respectively. The company also generates outstanding returns on capital, evidenced by a return on equity (ROE) of 108% and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 42%. Its balance sheet remains solid, with a current ratio of 1.5x and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.4x.
Long
Growing Pressure on Bitcoin!Bitcoin came under significant selling pressure this week, falling to its lowest level in nearly four months before rebounding above the $64,000 mark. The decline was largely driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which negatively affected investor appetite for risk-sensitive assets.
Market sentiment was also weighed down after Strategy sold part of its Bitcoin holdings, while US listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows for a fifth consecutive week. According to Bloomberg data, net outflows reached approximately $443 million during the latest week, following nearly $290 million in the previous week, highlighting persistent institutional selling pressure.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market capitalization dropped sharply to around $1.25 trillion, its lowest level since October 2024, compared to a peak of approximately $2.48 trillion in 2025. This reflects a significant decline in risk appetite across the cryptocurrency market.
Despite the recent rebound, continued ETF outflows and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty are keeping pressure on Bitcoin, making its next moves heavily dependent on a recovery in institutional demand and an improvement in overall market sentiment.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains in a broader downtrend after forming a bearish continuation pattern known as a bear flag, which typically develops as a corrective channel against the prevailing trend. In addition, prices continue to trade below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (blue line), reinforcing the negative outlook over the medium and long term.
Attention now turns to the $59,851 level, a key support area that investors and traders are closely monitoring. A break below this level could open the door for further downside pressure, while a bullish rebound may signal the start of a recovery. Such a scenario could gain momentum if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease and risk sentiment improves across global financial markets.
Micron Hit an All-Time High, Then Fell. What Does Its Chart Say?Micron Technology NASDAQ:MU fell some 6% Thursday morning after rising nearly 1,000% over 12 months, taking the stock to an all-time intraday high earlier this week. Let's check out what its chart and fundamentals say could happen next.
Micron's Fundamental Analysis
MU sank Thursday is sympathy with a decline for Broadcom NASDAQ:AVGO on poorly received earnings.
But prior to that, the stock gained almost 20% just on May 26 after UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri boosted his MU price target all the way up to $1,625 from a previous $535 (while reiterating the stock's "Buy" rating).
Arcuri wrote in a research note that he believes Micron can benefit from long-term memory-supply agreements that will likely lock in transparency on both pricing and demand across much of the memory/storage industry space.
The analyst said that increases the probability of Micron seeing significantly larger earnings and free cash flow through 2029 as AI-driven structural changes improve the memory/storage space's durability and stability.
Of course, MU could face numerous headwinds -- slower-than-anticipated adoption, massive capital expenditures, etc.
But Arcuri's large price-target boost helped push MU up 19.3% on May 26, with the stock gaining 45% in total over seven sessions to a $1,089.29 intraday record high on Wednesday.
True, his price target is way above the $860.24 average as of Thursday from among the 30 analysts that TipRanks says cover Micron.
However, TipRanks not only grades Arcuri at five stars out of a possible five, but also rates him as the No. 2 analyst out of all 12,268 that the service follows. TipRanks lists Arcuri's success rate over the past two years at an almost incredible 86%, with a stunning 99.4% average return.
And since Arcuri boosted Micron's price target, nine other sell-side analysts that TipRanks rates at five stars have either adopted or reiterated "Buy" or buy-equivalent ratings for the stock. Seven of them also increased their MU price targets by hundreds of dollars.
Micron's Technical Analysis
Next, let's look at MU's year-to-date chart running through Wednesday afternoon (June 3):
This chart shows that Micron has enjoyed a long upward-sloping trend, as illustrated by a Raff Regression model (the orange-and-pink shaded area above).
Within that uptrend, readers will spot a basing period of consolidation that stretches from mid-January 2026 into late April.
Marked with heavy black lines above, this pattern is also known as a "flat base" and indicates that a stock isn't moving much in either direction. Of course, not moving "much" is relative, as MU traded between about $350 and $500 during this period.
However, Micron broke out of the flat base anyway in late April and for the most part hasn't stopped rising since.
The stock has enjoyed support for all of 2026 to date above three key lines. MU has remained well above its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with a green line), its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted by a blue line) and its 200-day SMA (the red line).
This has likely kept portfolio managers and swing traders in the stock throughout the year-to-date period.
Moving on to the other technical indicators listed above, Micron's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) remains quite robust and has re-entered an extremely overbought condition.
Meanwhile, the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," marked with blue bars, a black line and a gold line at the chart's bottom) has renewed a bullish look since Arcuri's price-target adjustment.
For instance, the histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) has moved quite decisively back into positive territory -- a positive signal.
Additionally, the 12-day EMA (the black line) has crossed back above the 26-day EMA (the gold line). That's also bullish.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle was long MU at the time of writing this column.)
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CSCO: Moderately bullish skew with elevated downside riskI will share interesting trading patterns regularly and hopefully these patterns can give you some ideas.
Today I start from Cisco Systems (CSCO) which showed a moderately bullish historical setup after a strong 20-day move. I have already highlighted the setup in the chart. Similar setup has been seen 29 times across 29 unique S&P500 symbols in the past 20 years.
CSCO matched with historical setups from West Pharmaceutical Services , United Rentals , Target , Broadcom , Teledyne , TransDigm , Global Payments , Workday , Netflix , Micron , CDW , and American Express . These matches came from healthcare suppliers, industrial equipment, retail, semiconductors, aerospace, payments, software, media, and financial services.
The cross-market mix is important because CSCO is a networking technology company, yet its closest historical analogs were not limited to networking or enterprise hardware. I found similar market structures across very different types of businesses.
That suggests the pattern may reflect broader market behavior after strong repricing events, not only Cisco-specific fundamentals.
When these similar setups observed in the data, they finished positive 86.2% of the time over the next 5 trading days. Average 5 days return was +1.5% , while median return was + 1.6% .
The positive return rate was very high, and the average and median were closely aligned. That is encouraging from a distribution standpoint. The 25th percentile was +0.6%, the median was +1.6%, and the 75th percentile was +3.4%. That means even the lower-middle portion of the historical distribution was positive.
The broad 10th to 90th percentile range ran from -1.2% to +3.9%, which looks relatively contained. But the worst historical outcome was -8.7%, and maximum adverse excursion reached -11.7% .
So make sure the tail risk is managed well. The worst historical 5-day outcome was -8.7%, far larger than the median gain of +1.6%. This creates an asymmetry problem: the usual historical case was constructive, but the adverse historical exception was large.
With these historical cross-market evidence, would you trade today's CSCO setup?
PS: A similar setup is a historical period where price action, trend, volatility, momentum, volume behavior and broader market context look statistically close to today's conditions. I compare the full setup, not just one indicator. I used 20 days as the lookback window and 5 days for the look forward window.
BTC Weekly Cycle – 0.786/0.818 Fib + TDI + Miner CapitulationLooking at BTC's full price history on the weekly chart, one pattern has repeated itself across every single major cycle without exception: the macro bottom formed inside the 0.786–0.818 Fibonacci retracement zone of that cycle's range, while the weekly TDI was fully washed out near the 30 level, and miners were in deep capitulation. Right now, not one of these three conditions is met. That tells me we have not bottomed and another leg down is still ahead.
The Fib Pattern Across Every Cycle
Every macro cycle bottom in BTC's history has landed inside the 0.786–0.818 fib zone of that cycle's full range. Not the 0.5, not the 0.618 — always the 0.786/0.818.
'13 top → '15 bottom
BTC corrected deep into the 0.786–0.818 zone (~$214–$251) before the next cycle began.
'17 top → '18 bottom
After the 2017 peak, BTC dropped into the 0.786–0.818 zone (~$3,322–$3,699), marking the macro low.
'21 top → '22 bottom
Same structure — the 0.786–0.818 zone (~$15,122–$17,326) caught the bottom perfectly.
Three cycles. Three bottoms. Same fib zone every time.
The current cycle's 0.786–0.818 zone sits around $35,622–$39,163. Price is currently trading significantly above this zone. The structural target has not been reached.
The Weekly TDI Still Has a Long Way Down
This is the part that stands out most to me right now.
Looking at the weekly TDI across every previous cycle bottom, each one saw the TDI fully flush into the lower range near the 30 level, deep oversold territory on the higher timeframe. That exhaustion in momentum was the confirmation that the macro washout was complete.
Right now the weekly TDI is sitting in mid-range. It has not even begun approaching oversold levels. That is not what a macro bottom looks like that is what the middle of a correction looks like. The TDI still has a significant amount of headroom to travel lower, and historically that headroom gets filled before a real bottom is in.
The fact that the TDI is only at mid-range while price is already down significantly from the top actually tells me the worst selling pressure hasn't arrived yet. Real capitulation moves the TDI hard and fast into that lower zone and we haven't seen that at all.
Miner Capitulation.. Not Complete
Adding further weight to this thesis is the miner capitulation picture. Looking at the BTC price vs. previous cycle bottom chart, the current cycle is entering the red/orange phase — price returning toward the 100% baseline relative to the prior bottom, which historically represents miners operating near or below profitability.
Every previous cycle saw this miner capitulation phase fully complete right around the macro bottom zone. That flush forces the weakest mining operations out of the market, removes persistent sell pressure, and sets the stage for the next accumulation phase. We are in that process right now, but it does not look complete yet.
Three Signals. All Pointing the Same Direction.
At this moment in the cycle:
Price is above the 0.786–0.818 fib zone, target not reached
Weekly TDI is at mid-range.., nowhere near the 30 level washout seen at every prior bottom
Miner capitulation is in progress but not yet complete
When all three were aligned in previous cycles, that was the macro bottom. Right now none of them are aligned. That is why I'm not calling a bottom here, and why I believe another leg down is still the most likely path forward.
What I'm Watching For
The setup I'm waiting for requires all three to converge:
Price reaching the $35,622–$39,163 fib zone
Weekly TDI pushing down toward the 30 level
Miner capitulation completing its final flush
When those three align that is where I'll start watching seriously for macro bottom confirmation. A strong reaction from that zone combined with the TDI curling back up from deeply oversold levels would be the signal.
Until then, every bounce and retrace is just that a retrace within an ongoing correction.
Two Scenarios
Scenario 1 (primary): One more leg down
Price continues lower into the $35K–$39K fib zone, the weekly TDI finally reaches oversold territory near 30, and miner capitulation completes. This combination would match every prior cycle bottom structure and represent the real macro low of this cycle.
Scenario 2 (secondary): Immediate reversal
If BTC reclaims key levels with strong conviction and the TDI begins curling back up from current mid-range levels, this thesis would need to be reconsidered. But a weak bounce that gets rejected keeps the primary scenario fully intact.
Not financial advice.., just a historical structural observation across multiple cycles. The data is what it is.
NEAR Rejected Before Major ResistanceLower Highs Continue To Build
• NEAR has once again failed to reach the key $3.30 resistance zone.
• The latest rally stalled at $3.08, leaving a potential third consecutive lower high on the weekly chart.
Rejection Candles Raise Concerns
• Two successive inverted hammer-style candles suggest buyers are struggling to maintain control at higher prices.
• The strong rejection from this week's high highlights ongoing selling pressure.
$3.30 Remains The Line In The Sand
• Every meaningful rally over the past year has stalled around the $3.18-$3.38 region.
• Until that area is broken and reclaimed as support, the broader structure remains questionable.
Momentum Still Favours Bulls
• RSI remains above 50, showing momentum is still constructive despite the rejection.
• Stoch RSI remains in overbought territory, reflecting the strength of the recent advance.
Bulls Need To Defend Support
• A pullback towards the $2.21 area would not necessarily damage the bullish case.
• Holding higher lows and producing another push higher would keep the recovery structure intact.
In Summary
NEAR continues to battle with a major ceiling around $3.30, but once again buyers have fallen short. The latest rejection leaves the chart at risk of forming a third consecutive lower high, while successive inverted hammer candles hint at growing supply. Momentum indicators remain constructive, with RSI above 50 and Stoch RSI elevated, but bulls need to prove they can defend support and eventually reclaim $3.30 before a larger trend reversal can be confirmed.
Bitcoin: Bulls, Bears, and PigsWhy Hunting for the Perfect Bottom Leads to Slaughter
Thirteen years in these markets have taught me one simple truth: the market owes nobody anything. It doesn't owe you the perfect entry point, doesn't need to signal reversals with flags and fanfare, and certainly doesn't have to wait for you to gather your courage.
Today Bitcoin is trading around $64,000, and I'm watching a familiar scene unfold. Some are screaming "the bottom's already in!", others are waiting for $46,000, still others are drawing scenarios of a drop to $58,000. Meanwhile, the market is doing what it does best — punishing those who try to time the perfect moment.
This isn't a call to buy or sell. This is a lesson in discipline in a world where discipline is the only thing separating professionals from amateurs.
Anatomy of an Exhausting Decline
What we're seeing now in Bitcoin is a textbook example of a post-parabolic, grinding decline. Price has dropped from peaks around $125,000 to the current $64,000. The drawdown is substantial in percentage terms — about 49%. But where's the panic? Where's the capitulation?
I've seen real capitulations. In 2018, when 30% of the entire crypto market's value evaporated in a single day. In March 2020, when even gold was falling alongside stocks. Back then, people were selling everything indiscriminately, without looking at prices.
Now it's a different picture. The market is bleeding out slowly, like air from a punctured balloon. ETFs periodically take profits, miners sell off post-halving accumulations, institutional players conduct planned rebalancing. This isn't panic - this is a campaign.
You may also notice that the stock market is reaching new all-time highs.
And these are exactly the most treacherous markets. They don't give clear signals. They make you doubt your own rules.
First Principle: Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered
An old Wall Street saying, but in crypto it works with double the force.
Bulls buy in strong support zones and hold positions to technical targets. Bears sell at resistance zones and cover shorts at support levels. And pigs? Pigs want to buy exactly at the very bottom and sell exactly at the very top.
Imagine a hunter who waits for the perfect shot so long that the game walks away. Or imagine a surgeon who can't start an operation because they're waiting for absolutely perfect conditions while the patient bleeds out.
Right now the chats are full of such "surgeons." "Waiting for $58k," "Maybe $46k is better?"
Or as an old friend wrote to me yesterday, that 35k awaits
"What if it goes even lower?" While they wait for the perfect bottom, the market could reverse and head to new highs. History is full of examples where the most patient turned out to be the poorest.
Second Principle: The market is a redistribution mechanism, not an ATM
Many come to trading with the illusion that the market is some kind of money-printing machine. Press the button at the right time - get profit.
In reality, the market is a giant wealth redistribution mechanism. It takes money from the impatient and gives it to the patient. Takes from the greedy and gives to the disciplined. Takes from those who trade emotions and gives to those who trade by plan.
Look at the current situation. The $60,000-$70,000 zone is an area where about 429,000 BTC are accumulated, roughly 8.2% of circulating supply. These coins are held in "cold" wallets, off exchanges. The cost basis of these positions is right in the current range.
What does this mean? That many will resist selling on the first touch of this zone. But if the level gets convincingly broken, these same holders will turn into an underwater crowd that will sell on every bounce.
The market turns yesterday's bulls into tomorrow's bears. Turns patient buyers into panic sellers. This is the redistribution mechanism.
Third Principle: Perfect is the enemy of good
Military wisdom states: "A good plan executed today is better than a perfect plan executed tomorrow." In trading, this principle works with mathematical precision.
I know traders who have spent years waiting for the perfect entry. They study every indicator, read every analysis, build complex models. And they miss moves that could have brought them decent profits because the entry wasn't perfect.
The current Bitcoin situation is a classic example. There are models pointing to a bottom around $64,000. There are other models indicating $58,000 or even $46,000. Each model has its logic.
On the chart above I've drawn the most pessimistic scenario possible — converging trendlines pulling price into the M zone around $46K. But according to my own models, the probability of reaching that absolute bottom is roughly 30%. Not 70%. Not 90%. About one in three. Which means in 7 out of 10 outcomes, we never get there at all.
And yet — even at 30%, the choice is the same. Don't be a pig. At minimum, the current zone is accumulation, not euphoria.
But while analysts debate exact figures, the market lives its own life. It could reverse tomorrow, or it could drop another 20%. The main question isn't where the exact bottom is, but whether you're ready to act when your levels are hit.
Fourth Principle: Positioning is more important than predicting
The biggest secret of successful trading isn't predicting the future, but positioning correctly for any scenario.
Imagine a chess player trying to calculate all possible moves 20 steps ahead. They'll spend the entire game thinking and lose on time. Professional chess players think in terms of positioning — they place pieces to be ready for different game scenarios.
In the current Bitcoin situation, proper positioning looks like this:
If you're a long-term investor — define zones for gradual accumulation. For example, 30% of position at $63,000, another 40% at $58,000, remaining 30% at $49,000. Don't try to catch the exact bottom — spread the risk.
If you're an active trader — define clear levels for entry and exit. And most importantly — position size. Better to buy 2% of your deposit in the "wrong" place than lose 20% waiting for the perfect signal.
If you're in stablecoins — don't torture yourself over missed gains if the market reverses without you. Better to miss profit than take a loss.
Practical Application: How to act now
The current situation requires not forecasts, but discipline. Here's a concrete action plan:
Determine your maximum risk per trade. If you can lose 5% of your deposit without emotional suffering — that's your position size. If 10% — then take less leverage or smaller volume.
Break your zone of interest into several levels. Don't buy everything at one point. The $60,000-$70,000 zone might become the bottom, or it might not. But if you have a plan for both scenarios, the outcome will be predictable.
Forget about "double the deposit in a month." Think in terms of "preserve and multiply over a year." The market punishes greed and rewards patience.
Don't trade the news. When ETF flow data comes out, Fed rate decisions, regulatory announcements — price will already be somewhere else. Better to trade technical levels and market reaction to news.
Conclusion: Discipline as competitive advantage
I've seen markets turn millionaires into bankrupts, and turn patient beginners into successful traders. The difference isn't in starting capital size, quality of analysis, or trade execution speed.
The difference is discipline.
Discipline not to buy when everyone's buying. Discipline not to sell when everyone's selling. Discipline to follow the plan even when it seems the market is offering a better opportunity.
Bitcoin is now in a pivotal zone. Maybe this is the bottom. Maybe there are still months of bear trend ahead. But if you have a plan for both scenarios and the discipline to execute it - the result will be positive regardless of where the exact bottom turns out to be.
Remember: bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. Don't be pigs.
I'm not talking about altcoins, I'm talking about that elsewhere
Best Regards,
EXCAVO
SpaceX IPO Lands Next Week at $135 a Share. Here's What We Know.SpaceX NASDAQ:SPCX was the company everyone wanted to own but couldn't. Next week, that changes. And this comes with both big risks and big opportunities.
Elon Musk's space and AI empire is heading for what could become the biggest IPO in stock market history, with SpaceX announcing plans to price shares at $135 each ahead of its expected Nasdaq debut on June 12.
If everything goes according to plan, the company will sell 555 million shares, raising $75 billion ( at least it’s not $80 billion ) and giving SpaceX a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation, positioning it in the top 10 of the world’s biggest companies .
For context, that is larger than the entire stock market value of many developed countries. It also makes Saudi Aramco's famous 2019 IPO look almost modest by comparison.
🌕 From Rockets to Trillions
SpaceX's journey has never followed a traditional script.
The company started as Musk's ambitious attempt to make humanity multiplanetary. Along the way, it built a rocket-launch business, created the Starlink satellite internet network, launched astronauts into orbit, and recently merged with artificial intelligence company xAI.
Next week, investors will be asked to buy into all of it.
The company currently has roughly 12.9 billion Class A and Class B shares outstanding, with Musk retaining enormous control. He owns about 12% of the Class A stock and a remarkable 94% of the super-voting Class B shares, which carry ten votes each.
In practical terms, shareholders will own a piece of SpaceX. Musk will continue driving the spaceship.
💰 One Price, Very Musk
One unusual detail caught Wall Street's attention immediately.
Most IPOs arrive with a pricing range. Bankers typically test investor demand and then settle on a final figure shortly before listing.
SpaceX skipped that step and dropped the $135 price tag per share.
It is a bold move, although "bold" has been a recurring theme throughout Musk's career. Investors now know exactly where the starting line sits.
📊 The Valuation Debate
What’s the right price? At the proposed valuation, SpaceX would trade at roughly 70 times expected 2026 revenue and about 265 times 2025 EBITDA. EBITDA stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, a common metric used to measure operating performance.
Those multiples place SpaceX firmly in the category of companies being valued for future possibilities rather than current financial results. If we look at existing metrics, they ain’t that good.
Then again, very few businesses combine rockets, satellites, AI infrastructure, internet connectivity, and dreams of Mars colonization under one roof.
🤖 The xAI Factor
Part of the excitement comes from the company's February merger with xAI.
The combined business was valued at roughly $1.25 trillion at the time of the transaction. Since then, investor appetite for AI infrastructure has only intensified.
The overlap between Musk's companies continues to grow. Tesla, for example, owns 19 million SpaceX shares, worth around $2.5 billion at the IPO price.
The result is an increasingly interconnected Musk ecosystem spanning electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, social media, robotics, and space exploration.
🏦 The Bankers Are Working for Relative Peanuts
Goldman Sachs NYSE:GS leads the underwriting syndicate, joined by Morgan Stanley NYSE:MS , Bank of America NYSE:BAC , Citigroup NYSE:C , JPMorgan Chase NYSE:JPM , and about 20 more banks.
Normally, investment banks collect fees between 3% and 7% of IPO proceeds. Reports suggest SpaceX negotiated fees as low as 0.75%.
That still translates into roughly $562 million for the banking group, which remains a decent week's work by most standards.
📈 IPO Fever
SpaceX is arriving just as the IPO calendar is heating up.
Artificial intelligence company Anthropic has already filed confidential paperwork, while OpenAI is expected to follow in the coming weeks.
Several other billion-dollar offerings are also preparing to hit the market. Engine manufacturer Innio NASDAQ:INIO is seeking a valuation above $19 billion, while quantum-computing specialist Quantinuum NASDAQ:QNT is targeting a valuation north of $10 billion.
Off to you : Do you think the SpaceX IPO will get liftoff? Or blow up and take the market with it? Share your expectations in the comments.
Nvidia Stock Jumps on Big PC Makeover. The Key to $6 Trillion?Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA has been the company selling the picks and shovels in the AI gold rush. Data centers wanted its chips. Cloud providers wanted its chips. Startups wanted its chips. Pretty much anyone.
Now Jensen Huang wants you. And your laptop. And your desktop.
Shares of Nvidia climbed nearly 2% pre-market Monday after the chip titan unveiled what may be its most ambitious expansion yet: a direct assault on the personal computer market.
The company announced a new AI-focused processor and a fresh family of Windows PCs that could put it head-to-head with some very familiar names, including Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , Intel NASDAQ:INTC , AMD NASDAQ:AMD , and Qualcomm NASDAQ:QCOM .
Nvidia is already worth roughly $5.1 trillion, topping the list of the world's biggest companies . Now investors are naturally asking the question: is this the next big step toward $6 trillion?
💻 The AI Makeover
Speaking at the Computex technology conference in Taiwan, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivered a message that sounded less like a product launch and more like a declaration of revolution.
"Microsoft and Nvidia are going to reinvent the PC," Huang said.
That's a bold statement in an industry that has spent decades making computers faster, thinner, lighter, and slightly better at reminding you to install software updates.
According to Huang, this generation of machines represents the first major rethink of personal computing “in 40 years.” Get ready: AI agents are becoming the new user interface.
Instead of clicking through menus, opening applications, and typing endless commands, future users may simply tell their computers what they want and let intelligent assistants handle the work. Every introvert’s fear, especially in open spaces, right?
Think less hunting through folders and more having a digital chief of staff sitting inside your laptop.
⚡ The New Superchip
At the heart of the announcement sits Nvidia's new N1X processor, developed alongside Microsoft and built using technology from Taiwanese chip designer MediaTek.
The processor will power Nvidia's new RTX Spark superchip, which combines two of the company's biggest strengths.
First comes the Blackwell graphics processing unit, or GPU. GPUs excel at handling massive amounts of parallel calculations and have become the engines powering modern AI.
Second comes Nvidia's custom Arm-based central processing unit, or CPU, which handles traditional computing tasks.
Now for this PC project, together they will form a single package with 128 gigabytes of unified memory, creating what Nvidia calls an AI superchip capable of running massive AI models directly on the device.
Today's AI tools often rely on remote data centers. Nvidia's vision pushes much of that computing power onto the laptop itself, allowing users to run advanced AI applications locally while maintaining fast performance and a full day of battery life.
🏭 The Ambitious Bet
The initial rollout includes more than 30 laptops and 10 desktop computers from manufacturers such as Dell, Asus, HP, and Microsoft.
Those first devices target premium customers including developers, content creators, gamers, and AI professionals.
But the long-term plan stretches much further.
Nvidia sees AI eventually becoming as common as web browsers or email. If that happens, every PC manufacturer will need powerful AI hardware, and Nvidia wants to supply it.
That opportunity is enormous.
The PC market ships hundreds of millions of devices every year. Even a modest share could create an entirely new growth engine alongside Nvidia's already dominant data-center business.
🤖 The Bigger Vision
The most intriguing part of Huang's presentation was the vision where consumers own AI supercomputers in their homes. These systems could coordinate security cameras, TV, appliances, lawn equipment, and countless digital assistants working behind the scenes.
Huang compared the current transition to the moment mobile phones evolved into smartphones. Whether that proves accurate remains to be seen, but Nvidia clearly believes AI-powered computing is the next major platform shift.
For the record, smartphones sounded futuristic before they became extensions of our hands.
📈 The $6 Trillion
Investors certainly liked what they heard.
Nvidia has already conquered AI infrastructure, becoming the dominant supplier of chips powering everything from ChatGPT to enterprise data centers.
The company's challenge now is finding the next frontier large enough to move the needle. Consumer PCs may be exactly that. And that's how it can scale all the way to the next trillion.
Off to you : Do you think that’s the future of AI? Sitting on your desk, not only in the cloud? Share your views!
Stages & Price Cycle - Understanding How Price MovesStages
the zoomed-out view
Four stages, I identify primarily by where price sits relative to the 50 SMA:
Stage 1 — Bottoming
Price is consolidating after a decline. Selling starts to slow and you begin to see the first signs of buyers stepping in.
Stage 2 — Rising
Price is in an uptrend.
Stage 3 —Topping:
Price action gets more erratic. The move starts to stall, there are levels price can no longer sustain or push above. Watch for lower highs forming.
Stage 4 — Declining:
Price breaks down. Capitulation.
Note: Stages don't always go in order. Topping doesn't always precede a decline, sometimes price resets and pushes back into Stage 2.
Price Cycle
the details within the stages
Phase 1 — Decline & Retest
Price falls below the moving averages. During the decline, there's typically some kind of retest back to the EMAs before continuing lower.
Phase 2 — Stabilization & Transition
Selling slows. Price goes sideways, more doji candles, range compresses. Key question: are we done going down?
Phase 3 — Breakout & Retest
Price breaks above the moving averages. The breakout is almost always followed by a retest, to or through the EMAs, before the next phase begins.
Phase 4 — Expansion & Pullback
Price expands, pulls back, expands, pulls back. This is where most upside trading happens. Track your pullbacks, 3 to 5 is the typical range before the move flattens or transitions.
Phase 5 — Exhaustion & Transition
Price struggles to push past its last high. Movement gets erratic. First break of the 50 SMA can be a signal. Price needs to break down and stabilize before it can attempt another leg up.
The Multi-Timeframe Layer
Every timeframe has its own stage and price cycle running simultaneously
When the daily is range-bound or topping, you can drop to the hourly and trade shorter moves through the same 5 phases
When the daily is in a clean Stage 2 uptrend, the hourly will be cycling through all 5 phases within that move — use it to time entries and exits
Education
Cross Margin vs. Isolated Margin: Which One Is Best For You?Margin trading has cemented itself as one of the best trading mechanisms to level the playing field for small and medium-sized traders. With this popular mechanism, traders can acquire long and short trading positions without possessing significant investment funds. This mechanism has effectively filled the gap between the whale traders and common folk.
Despite the effectiveness of margin trading, it is a considerably complex practice. Traders who wish to adopt this strategy must understand its different subsets and significant risks tied to the practice.
Key Takeaways
Margin trading allows investors to multiply their profits by acquiring more buying power from brokerage firms.
Isolated margins are great options for traders wishing to hedge risks and isolate their trading strategies.
The cross-margin position provides more financing options for investors, letting them maximise their capital efficiency.
Selecting a superior option between the cross and isolated margins depends on your specific trading tactics and patterns.
Understanding the Margin Trading
Margin trading represents a unique opportunity for traders with limited budgets. It allows traders to take up positions way beyond their financial capabilities, thus increasing their potential buying power exponentially. The non-margin buying power of traders always equals their free cash reserves for investing purposes. So, if investor X holds $10,000 in their investment deposit, their buying power equals their immediate cash assets.
However, traders often need to go beyond their financial capabilities to reap significant profits on the forex or crypto markets. After all, nobody wants to waste their masterful trading strategies on minuscule profits. Thus, numerous investors convert their insufficient capital into a margin account, where they can effectively multiply their buying power several times over. Of course, this method comes with considerable strings attached.
Brokerages that provide a leveraged position for traders expect to be compensated in due time. They also put heavy restrictions on the open positions. Simply put, if traders keep a losing position that reaches a certain threshold, brokers can seize the trader's entire account balance. So, this trading mechanism is not without its substantial risks that interested traders should thoroughly analyse.
Essential Concepts and Terms in Margin Trading
As mentioned above, this practice is highly effective but has significant challenges and risks of losing an entire investment. Thus, it is important to understand the whole process inside-out to make diligent moves.
Starting with the Basics
To open a trading account, investors must provide an initial margin for a gateway capital investment to enter the initial position. Brokerages of different scopes and sizes require varying initial investments. For large-scale brokerages, the initial fees are pretty high, as they aim to accommodate wealthy traders. However, numerous digital brokerages offer relaxed initial requirements, allowing smaller traders to utilise this mechanism.
After setting up the account, it is crucial to understand the leverage ratio. Simply put, a brokerage firm will supply traders with leverage at least twice the amount of their initial investment. So, if you put down $10,000 as initial capital, your buying power will be at least $ 20,000. However, margin lines are risky if they provide a massive leverage ratio. As a rule of thumb, you should remember that a higher leverage ratio invites more trading risks into the equation.
Strategies, Maintenance, and Margin Calls
After acquiring leverage and increasing buying power, traders can open up margin positions, purchasing financial assets to receive a margin return. There are two popular strategies in this case - long and short. The former pertains to purchasing assets likely to increase in price, and the latter banks on the contrary.
All traders must keep a healthy maintenance margin regardless of the acquired positions. A maintenance margin refers to the minimum required deposit that must be put down as long as the open position exists. It effectively serves as collateral for brokerage firms that provide leveraged positions for traders. In some instances, brokerage firms have special margin requirements, often related to more volatile financial assets. Even a slight decrease in their valuation can trigger a margin call event, practically a game-over state.
But what is the margin call, anyway? It is a warning sign for traders who have gone over to the losing side of margin positions. Suppose investor X has opened a margin position to purchase and sell Crypto A in three months. Investor X is betting on Crypto A's appreciation in that period.
However, if Crypto A hits a growth slump and goes in the opposite direction, investor X will be left with a losing position. If the overall value of purchased assets exceeds the broker's threshold, investor X will receive a margin call. Once losses stack up and the threshold is crossed, brokers will issue a stop loss or IOC orders, seizing the entire margin trading account of the investor.
Thus, margin trading in crypto and conventional markets is a double-edged sword. It amplifies the profits from intelligent trading strategies and dramatically increases the potential losses.
Fast Fact
Both cross margins and isolated margins are extremely effective practices in their own right. The former accommodates traders who wish to acquire more trading leverage, and the latter supports investors who wish to mitigate their risks.
Cross Margin vs. Isolated Margin
Margin trading can be divided into two popular types - isolated margin trading and cross-margin trading. Both subsets have strengths and weaknesses, and choosing the superior option depends on your unique strategies. Cross and isolated margins represent two sides of the same coin, offering two mutually exclusive approaches to investors.
What is Isolated Margin?
As outlined above, this practice always includes amplified risks of portfolio losses through a stop-loss order. Naturally, many investors are uncomfortable with losing an entire account balance due to a single losing position. Additionally, numerous traders would love the option to utilise their leveraged buying power for different strategies that don't have overlapping margin call risks tied to them. For such investors, an isolated margin is a perfect choice.
The isolated margin mode allows investors to open up several leveraged positions on the market without shared risks. Suppose that investor X wants to short Crypto A but also wishes to acquire a long position on Crypto B. With isolated margins, both strategies can be achieved by dividing the leveraged capital. If one isolated margin position goes under, the other can still provide profits without experiencing a stop-loss order.
Thus, isolated margins provide the freedom of choice with leveraged capital, letting investors diversify their strategies without compounding the stop-loss order risks.
What is Cross Margin?
While isolated margins provide diversity and many options, they have one considerable drawback. By dividing their leveraged buying power into several positions, traders will likely experience razor-thin margin call ratios. Each position will have much less wiggle room before the brokers notify the investors with a margin call.
Thus, brokerage firms developed an updated offering - the cross-margin mode. This variation also allows investors to pursue different positions with a single leveraged account. However, with cross margins, every position is accumulated into a single amount when calculating the margin call ratios.
So, while traders get to place their trading positions separately, brokers will evaluate their margin call thresholds in aggregate. With this method, traders will have less trouble obtaining liquidity to finance their new trading strategies. However, the cross margin is not a Pareto improvement over its isolated counterpart, as it contains significant default risks for the entire portfolio. Since the brokerage firm views the cross-margin account as singular, a stop-loss order will result in the seizure of the entire portfolio instead of the relevant fractions.
Even if a particular trader has several winning positions, they might lose their account assets if the overall margin ratio is low enough. Thus, cross-margin substantially increases the financial capabilities of investors, but it also invites the risk of portfolio-wide losses.
Comparing the Two Trading Methods
As discussed above, both cross and isolated margins have their own merits. Determining a better option between these two is impossible without considering your unique trading strategies.
Cross margins are great options to open up many trading positions without capital constraints. They also allow traders to utilise their winning positions to finance new ones. However, the cross mode can become extremely costly if the unfortunate margin call occurs.
Conversely, isolated margins let investors mitigate risks and execute trading strategies in a vacuum. With this method, new trading positions will not influence the old ones, allowing investors to take bigger risks without fearing a portfolio-wide margin call. So, isolated margins enable traders to experiment with new strategies without endangering their cash cows and reliable trading positions.
Choosing between these options must follow your distinct trading approach and philosophy. For some traders, it is vital to acquire substantial buying power to reap sufficient profits. Others prefer to build their portfolio up patiently and employ risk-averse strategies. Thus, investors must analyse their trading practices to decide which method complements their efforts flawlessly.
Smart Cross Margins - The Next Logical Step in Margin Trading?
Finally, the newest variation in this niche is the smart cross margin, which allows traders to offset the initial capital requirements if their positions are on opposite sides. Suppose investor X wants to open a long position on Crypto A. They also have numerous positions open on different crypto assets. Investor X also opens a short position on Crypto A to mitigate their risks. In standard conditions, the broker would demand separate initial investments on both long and short options from investor X.
However, with smart cross margins, the broker platform realises that the above positions cancel each other out. Thus, smart cross margins will considerably lower the total initial investment. This novel approach allows investors to hedge their bets without requiring additional capital. Considering that the standard cross-margin trading is famous for its amplified risks, the smart version is a marked improvement over the conventional cross-margin system.
Is Margin Trading a Good Idea?
After diving into the nature of margin trading and exploring its subtypes, it is time to answer the main question - is it a great strategy overall? The answer depends on your preferences as a trader. Margin trading generally improves the potential earnings from successful strategies but also proportionally increases the risks. For wealthy traders, acquiring the margin positions might be unnecessary, as their existing portfolio can produce lucrative returns without artificially increasing the buying power.
However, if a given investor only has a limited budget, say $10,000, at their disposal, this mechanism might be the only option to generate respectable returns in a calendar year. With this method, intelligent investors will not be constrained by their immediate cash reserves.
Suppose investor X is confident that crypto will experience a 20% price spike in the next two months. With only $10,000 in buying power, all they can receive from their foresight is $2,000 worth of returns. However, with amplified buying power, they can potentially earn multiple times the profit. However, if the prediction is ultimately proven wrong, investors can lose much more than they would in non-margin conditions.
Thus, the double-edged nature of margin trading persists, and it is vital to have enough experience to utilise this complex mechanism successfully. Additionally, traders should carefully consider the broker options on the market. Numerous brokerage firms offer different terms, including initial investments, maintenance margins and leverage ratios.
While acquiring the best margin rates is always good, traders must evaluate the overall picture and ensure their broker is highly reputable. Finally, investors must evaluate how much margin ratios they require. Acquiring too much leverage can lead to needlessly amplified losses in the long term.
Final Thoughts
Margin trading is an excellent option for investors who wish to compound their potential profits and earn extra returns for their diligent strategies. Both cross and isolated margins serve unique purposes in this field, accommodating different investor tactics. Choosing between these subsets depends on the preferred investment decisions and trading patterns. Both options come with considerable advantages and downsides. Thus, traders must correctly evaluate their strategies and determine which option will fit their needs like a glove.
TEducation
