Last July I put out a video suggesting that Brazil was a great opportunity to allocate capital (linked below). At the time the business cycle had turned from contraction to expansion and from a technical standpoint, we were sitting on support. Today, +48.6% higher the risk is rising, the cycle is still relatively strong but our technicals are suggesting we...
USDHKD is a proxy for monetary "stuff" going on in China. China can stimulate when this peg is not being hit as most of their dollar funding seems to be running through Hong Kong. When the peg gets hit however, we see noticeable problems and effects around the world. We are now about to see the peg get re-hit once again, which will likely kick off another wave of...
Returning to its bearish path, we started the week drilling the support, if it closes on this level we hope that the fall will deepen ... Alguien pidio los $650 ? Retomando su senda bajista, partimos la semana perforando el soporte, de cerrar asi es esperar que se profundice la caidas... #USDCLP chart
As you can see on this chart, a gigantic rising wedge it is completing as long as price is moving towards its target.
AMEX:EEM Double bottom in place, confirmed looks like more upside coming all the way to 46.50
Slowing business cycle also points to further weakness in EM equities until end of 2019 or steel prices turn higher. SPX may be more resilient but upside should be limited. IF EM equities will be under pressure, it is likely that DXY will be strong in the coming months. SHORT EEM bounces. Be cautious on SPX
Emerging Markets (EEM) seem to be resuming the bull market that started in early 2016. 1) Recently broke out from downward channel 2) Broke out from alternative shorter term negative trend line 3) Is in the track to end the week confirming a bullish pivot, surpassing the last short term top. Medium term objective is last major top the occurred in jan 18. Long...
... for a 1.22/contract credit. Doing a smidge of defined risk, all-weather, broad market instrumentation here ... . The metrics aren't much to look at, because they aren't static,* but here they are: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect on Setup: $378/contract Max Profit on Setup: $122 Delta: 3.48 Theta: 1.9 As far as intratrade management is concerned: Look to roll...
Bearish on $BABA: I believe the recent equity rally is long in the tooth and were bound to see a selloff, possibly to new lows on the S&P. If you're bearish equities like me, BABA looks like a good short here. Looking to see a confirmation close down to indicate a reversal of direction.
Just playing with some ideas! Found this H&S pattern on EEM (emerging markets) and got me thinking. If $BTC is the main coin of the world (main Markets) then possibly Altcoins and LTC could act as the emerging market version in coin land. I am out of $LTC currently. would want to see a bounce to 36$ ish then a slight pull back. I will enter if that pull back holds.
The downtrend keeps strong in the Emerging Markets, following the also bearish Chinese stock market (FXI). Any price action in the EEM between the 50 days and 100 days moving average is a good entry point to sell, minimizing the risks in the downtrend direction. Stop loss around the 200 moving average.
EEM is trending in a down-up counter trend. It has failed over the last 8 months to close above its Moving-Average on a weekly basis. I am using the 16-day Moving Average (representing 3 weeks +1 of trading days), but you can play with the period and you will see similar results. EEM is currently testing close to its 16-day Moving Average and near the top of its...
Short FXI once the rising bearish wedge breaks. TP 34, ideally 32
Earnings With >70 Rank/>50 Implied: No underlyings with highly liquid options with earnings announcements in the next week. With single names with earnings announcements in the rear view mirror, we're looking at earnings starting up again in the January cycle; I'd rather just play those closer to the announcement, rather than get caught up in a volatility...
EARNINGS WITH A RANK >70/IMPLIED >50: CRM (81/52): Announces on Tuesday after market close. The pictured defined risk setup pays a greater than a one-third of the wing width 1.89 with break evens between the expected and one standard deevy. ANF (68/86): Announces Thursday before market open. The Dec 21st 16 short straddle was paying 3.04 as of Friday close;...
$EEM has now flashed a buy signal, together with $SPY, and offers a great chance to go long with low risk. Emerging markets might benefit from the rally in oil which I foresee here. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.