Your perfect trade got killed by one solution from WashingtonYou make a perfect analysis, found the perfect entry. Level, volume, divergence — everything lined up. You enter the trade… and 10 minutes later price blows through your stop like your analysis never existed. Sound familiar? At that exact moment, the Fed Chair was speaking somewhere - and the market was listening to him, not your indicator. Technical analysis shows you WHAT price is doing. Fundamental analysis explains WHY. And in 3 minutes, i ’ll give you the entire macro foundation - without it, you’re trading blindfolded.
1. Inflation — the Economy’s Thermometer
Inflation is the speed at which your money loses value. A year ago coffee cost $4, today it’s $4.40 - that’s 10% inflation. An inflation (around 2%) is normal — the economy is “warm.” But when it accelerates, central banks step in. And that’s where things get critical for traders.
Watch the CPI report (Consumer Price Index) - on release day, the market can move 2-3% in minutes.
2. The Fed Rate — the price of money
Imagine money is a product, and it has a price. That price is the interest rate.
• Low rate → cheap loans → businesses and investors borrow and buy assets → stocks and crypto rise UP
• High rate → expensive loans → money flows out of risk assets → markets fall DOWM
The Fed raises rates to cool inflation and cuts them to stimulate the economy. This is the main lever moving ALL markets — from the SPCFD:SPX S&P 500 to Bitcoin BITGET:BTCUSDT
The FOMC meets 8 times a year. Mark those dates in your calendar - trading during these events without understanding the context is dangerous.
3. Unemployment — the Economy’s Pulse
It sounds paradoxical, but for markets: too much good news is bad news.
Low unemployment → companies fight for workers → wages rise → people spend more → inflation accelerates → the Fed keeps rates high → markets suffer.
That’s why the market sometimes RALLIES on a weak jobs report (Non-Farm Payrolls). Traders aren’t celebrating unemployment - they’re celebrating future rate cuts.
4. Bond Yields - the Fear detector
US Treasuries are the “risk-free” asset. And they pay a yield.
Simple logic: why risk money in stocks for 8% a year when the government guarantees 5% for free? When the 10-year Treasury yield rises - money drains out of stocks and crypto. When it falls - risk assets come back to life.
The ticker TVC:US10Y is right there in TradingView. Add it to your watchlist next to BTC and the S&P - you’ll see how often they move in mirror image. This is a very important indicator on which the pricing of many assets (including gold) depends. I also do reviews and analysis of bonds on this channel.
5. Money Supply (M2) — How much water Is in the pool
Picture the market as a swimming pool and money as water. When the Fed “prints” ECONOMICS:USM2 money (QE), the water level rises — and all boats float higher: stocks, real estate. Remember 2020-2021.
When money gets drained (QT) — the water recedes, and you see who was swimming naked. Remember 2022.
The M2 chart explains bull and bear cycles better than any moving average.
How it all Connects:
One chain worth memorizing:
Inflation rises → the Fed hikes rates → bond yields rise → money leaves risk assets → stocks and crypto fall.
And in reverse — when inflation cools, the cycle turns, and a bull market begins.
What to Do Right Now
1. Open the economic calendar and mark the next CPI, NFP, and FOMC dates
2. Add US10Y to your watchlist
3. Before every trade, ask yourself: “What phase of the cycle are we in - is money flowing into the market or out of it?”
4. Read my other articles on economics, investing, and trading, and i bet your trading results will improve.
Technical analysis tells you WHERE to enter. Fundamental analysis tells you whether you should be entering at all. 
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THIS WEEK IMPORTANTS | JUNE 29 - JULY 3, 2026🌍📊 Markets enter a crucial new quarter with investors bracing for high-impact data, including Nonfarm Payrolls, Eurozone CPI, and central bank speeches driving global FX sentiment.
The Federal Reserve remains under the spotlight with unemployment and jobs data, while geopolitical calm supports risk appetite. The focus shifts to key economic releases from the U.S., Europe, China, and Japan. Expect heightened volatility across USD pairs, Gold, and equity indices as the week progresses.
Stay disciplined, manage risk, and trade the data—not the noise.
Simple Market View:
✅ USD (US Dollar): Strong (supported by key jobs data)
⚠️ EUR (Euro): Volatile (driven by CPI Flash & German data)
⚠️ GBP (British Pound): Neutral to Strong (UK GDP & Services PMI)
❌ JPY (Japanese Yen): Weakest Currency (due to BoJ policy divergence)
⚠️ AUD (Australian Dollar): Neutral (Trade Balance & RBA Minutes)
❌ CAD (Canadian Dollar): Weak (GDP numbers are key)
⚠️ NZD (New Zealand Dollar): Neutral
🛡️ CHF (Swiss Franc): Stable but upside limited
Overall, the market is favoring the U.S. Dollar because the Fed maintains a hawkish stance and strong labor data, while the Japanese Yen remains the weakest currency amid continued yield differentials.
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EGX30 Positive TrendEGX30 stock is currently in a rising region. In case of continuing, it's expected to breach the resistance line 36,202.344. In case of decreasing, it's expected to reach the support line 35,424.707, 34,880.361, then 34,647.070. This is a result of positive news as Egypt's blue-chip index EGX30 advanced for a fourth day and rose 1.6% to hit a record high at 35,254. EAST soared 5.5% and TMGH gained 0.7%. Meanwhile, Egypt's non-oil private sector showed signs of stabilization in July, with employment rising for the first time in nine months and a softer decline in output and new orders, the S&P Global Egypt PMI report said. Egypt's blue-chip index EGX30 advanced for a fifth day and rose 0.6% to hit a fresh record high at 35,480. ETEL soared 4.8% and FWRY gained 1.9%. Meanwhile, Egypt's net foreign reserves rose to $49.036 billion in July from $48.7 billion in June, the central bank said on Tuesday. UK employment,wage growth falls, US retail sales shineThe British pound showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3406, down 0.09% on the day.
Today's UK employment report pointed to a cooling in the UK labor market. The number of employees on company payrolls dropped by 41 thousand in June after a decline of 25 thousand in May. Still, the May decline was downwardly revised from 109 thousand, easing concerns of a significant deterioration in the labor market.
Wage growth (excluding bonuses) dropped to 5.0% from a revised 5.3%, above the market estimate of 4.9%. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7%, up from 4.6% and above the market estimate of 4.6%. This is the highest jobless level since the three months to July 2021.
The latest job data will ease the pressure on the Bank of England to lower rates, as the sharp revision to the May payroll employees means the labor market has not deteriorated as much as had been feared. Still, the employment picture remains weak and the markets are expecting an August rate cut, even though UK inflation was hotter than expected in June.
US retail sales bounced back in June after back-to-back declines. Consumers reacted with a thumbs-down to President Trump's tariffs, which took effect in April and made imported goods more expensive.
The markets had anticipated a marginal gain of just 0.1% m/m in June but retail sales came in at an impressive 0.6%, with most sub-categories recording stronger activity in June. This follows a sharp 0.9% decline in May.
The US tariffs seem to have had a significant impact on retail sales, as consumers continue to time their purchases to minimize the effect of tariffs.
Consumers increased spending before the tariffs took effect and cut back once the tariffs were in place. With a truce in place between the US and China which has slashed tariff rates, consumers have opened their wallets and are spending more on big-ticket items such as motor vehicles, which jumped 1.2% in June. UK employment,wage growth falls, US retail sales shineThe British pound showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3406, down 0.09% on the day.
Today's UK employment report pointed to a cooling in the UK labor market. The number of employees on company payrolls dropped by 41 thousand in June after a decline of 25 thousand in May. Still, the May decline was downwardly revised from 109 thousand, easing concerns of a significant deterioration in the labor market.
Wage growth (excluding bonuses) dropped to 5.0% from a revised 5.3%, above the market estimate of 4.9%. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7%, up from 4.6% and above the market estimate of 4.6%. This is the highest jobless level since the three months to July 2021.
The latest job data will ease the pressure on the Bank of England to lower rates, as the sharp revision to the May payroll employees means the labor market has not deteriorated as much as had been feared. Still, the employment picture remains weak and the markets are expecting an August rate cut, even though UK inflation was hotter than expected in June.
US retail sales bounced back in June after back-to-back declines. Consumers reacted with a thumbs-down to President Trump's tariffs, which took effect in April and made imported goods more expensive.
The markets had anticipated a marginal gain of just 0.1% m/m in June but retail sales came in at an impressive 0.6%, with most sub-categories recording stronger activity in June. This follows a sharp 0.9% decline in May.
The US tariffs seem to have had a significant impact on retail sales, as consumers continue to time their purchases to minimize the effect of tariffs.
Consumers increased spending before the tariffs took effect and cut back once the tariffs were in place. With a truce in place between the US and China which has slashed tariff rates, consumers have opened their wallets and are spending more on big-ticket items such as motor vehicles, which jumped 1.2% in June. Australian dollar loses ground, jobs report nextThe Australian dollar has declined on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6441, down 0.45% on the day. This follows the Australian dollar's massive gains of 1.5% a day earlier.
Australia's wage growth accelerated in the first quarter. Annually, the Wage Price index gained 3.4%, up from 3.2% in Q4 2024 and above the market estimate of 3.2%. The gain was driven by stronger wage growth in the public sector. On a quarterly basis, wage growth rose 0.9% q/q, up from 0.7% and above the market estimate of 0.8%. This is the first time since Q2 2024 that annual wage growth has accelerated.
The higher-than-expected wage report comes before next week's Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision. Currently, it looks like a coin toss as to whether the Reserve Bank will maintain or lower rates.
Australia releases employment data on Thursday. Employment change is expected to ease to 20 thousand in April, down from 32.2 thousand in March. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%. The labor market has been cooling and if it continues to deteriorate, there will be pressure on the Reserve Bank to lower rates.
At last week's Federal Reserve meeting, Fed Chair Powell said that he would take a wait-and-see attitude in its rate policy. Trump's erratic tariff policy must be frustrating for the Fed, as it makes it difficult to make reliable growth and inflation forecasts.
This week's surprise announcement of a tariff deal between the US and China is a case in point at Trump's zig-zag trade policy. The two sides have been engaged in a bruising trade war and slapped massive tariffs on each other's products. Suddenly, the tariffs were slashed, leading to a sigh of relief in the financial markets. The deal is only for 90 days, and what happens then is very much up in the air.
Canadian dollar shrugs after mixed employment numbersThe Canadian dollar is steady on Friday, after a two-day slid in which the loonie declined by 1%. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3911, down 0.09% on the day. On the data calendar, Canada released the employment report and there are no US economic releases.
The April employment report didn't show much change and the Canadian dollar has shown little reaction. The economy added 7.4 thousand jobs, rebounding from the loss of 32.6 thousand in March and above the market estimate of 2.5 thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate climbed to 6.9%, higher than the market estimate of 6.8% and above the March reading of 6.7%. This was the highest level since Nov. 2024.
The rise in unemployment is likely a reflection of the US tariffs. Canada's exports to the US were down in March, hurting businesses that export to the US. If the tariffs remain in place, weaker demand from the US could significantly damage Canada's economy.
The Bank of Canada released its Financial Stability Report on Thursday. The BoC said that the financial system was strong but warned that a prolonged trade war between Canada and the US could lead to banks cutting back on lending, which would hurt consumers and businesses and damage the economy. The report said that the unpredictibility of US trade policy could cause further market volatility and was a risk to financial stability.
The Federal Reserve maintained rates earlier this week and Fed Chair Powell said the Fed was in a wait-and-see-stance due to the uncertainty over the US tariffs. We'll hear from seven Fed members on Friday and Saturday, who may provide some insights on where rate policy is headed. The markets have priced in a rate hike in June at only 18%, down sharply from 58% a week ago.
USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3928. Above, there is resistance at 1.3935
1.3922 and 1.3915 are the next support levels New Zealand dollar steady ahead of employment dataThe New Zealand dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5970, up 0.05% on the day. With no key events in New Zealand or the US today, we can expect a quiet day for the New Zealand dollar.
New Zealand releases the employment report for the first quarter on Wednesday. The labor market is showing signs of weakening, with employment change posting two straight declines.
The markets are projecting a slight improvement, with an estimate of 0.1% for Q1.
The unemployment rate has accelerated for seven consecutive quarters and is expected to rise to 5.3% from 5.1% in Q4 2025. This would be the highest level since Q4 2016 and would support the case for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lower rates for a sixth straight time at the May 28 meeting. At the April meeting, members warned that the tariffs created downside risks for growth and inflation in New Zealand.
The RBNZ would prefer to continue lowering interest rates in increments of 25-basis points in order to boost the weak economy. Inflation is comfortably within the 1-3% target band but there are upside risks to inflation, especially with global trade tensions escalating due to US tariffs.
In the US, the Federal Reserve is virtually certain to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.5% on Wednesday. The meeting will be interesting as Fed Chair Powell is expected to push back against pressure from President Trump to lower rates. The Fed is likely to remain on the sidelines until the uncertainty over US tariffs becomes more clear. Trump's zig-zags over tariffs has triggered wild swings in the financial markets, but Trump has said some trade agreements will be announced soon.
NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5968. Below, there is support at 0.5940
There is resistance at 0.5995 and 0.6023 German inflation higher than expected, Euro dipsThe euro is calm on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1334, down 0.45% on the day.
Germany's inflation rate dropped to 2.1% y/y in April, down from 2.2% in March but above the market estimate of 2.0%. This was the lowest level in seven months, largely driven by lower energy prices.
The more significant story was that core CPI, which excludes energy and food and is a more reliable indicator of inflation trends, rose to 2.9% from 2.6%. This will be of concern to policymakers at the European Central Bank, as will the increase in services inflation. The ECB has to balance the new environment of US tariffs and counter-tariffs against the US, which will raise inflation, along with the strong rise in the euro and fiscal stimulus which will boost upward inflationary pressures.
The ECB will be keeping a close look at Friday's eurozone inflation report, which is expected to follow the German numbers. Headline CPI is projected to drop to 2.1% from 2.2%, while the core rate is expected to rise to 2.5% from 2.4%. The central bank would prefer to continue delivering gradual rate cuts in order to boost anemic growth, but this will be contingent on inflation remaining contained.
The markets were braced for soft US numbers but the data was worse than expected. ADP employment change declined to 62 thousand, down from a revised 147 thousand and below the market estimate of 115 thousand.
This was followed by first-estimate GDP for Q1, which declined by 0.3% q/q, down sharply from 2.4% in Q4 and lower than the market estimate of 0.3%. This marked the first quarterly decline in the economy since Q1 2022. The weak GDP reading was driven by a surge in imports ahead of US tariffs taking effect and a drop in consumer spending.
EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.1362 and is testing support at 1.1338. Below, there is support at 1.1306
There is resistance at 1.1394 and 1.1418 German inflation higher than expected, Euro dipsThe euro is calm on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1334, down 0.45% on the day.
Germany's inflation rate dropped to 2.1% y/y in April, down from 2.2% in March but above the market estimate of 2.0%. This was the lowest level in seven months, largely driven by lower energy prices. The more significant story was that core CPI, which excludes energy and food and is a more reliable indicator of inflation trends, rose to 2.9% from 2.6%. This will be of concern to policymakers at the European Central Bank, as will the increase in services inflation.
The ECB has to balance the new environment of US tariffs and counter-tariffs against the US, which will raise inflation, along with the strong rise in the euro and fiscal stimulus which will boost upward inflationary pressures. The ECB will be keeping a close look at Friday's eurozone inflation report, which is expected to follow the German numbers. Headline CPI is projected to drop to 2.1% from 2.2%, while the core rate is expected to rise to 2.5% from 2.4%.
The central bank would prefer to continue delivering gradual rate cuts in order to boost anemic growth, but this will be contingent on inflation remaining contained.
The markets were braced for soft US numbers but the data was worse than expected. ADP employment change declined to 62 thousand, down from a revised 147 thousand and below the market estimate of 115 thousand.
This was followed by first-estimate GDP for Q1, which declined by 0.3% q/q, down sharply from 2.4% in Q4 and lower than the market estimate of 0.3%. This marked the first quarterly decline in the economy since Q1 2022. The weak GDP reading was driven by a surge in imports ahead of US tariffs taking effect and a drop in consumer spending. Australian core CPI falls within the RBA target, Aussie shrugsThe Australian dollar has been showing strong movement this week but is calm on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6391, up 0.14% on the day.
Australia released the CPI report for the first quarter. The Australian dollar didn't show much reaction, but the data could point to another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Headline CPI remained unchanged at 2.4% y/y, just above the market estimate of 2.3%. The significant news was that RBA Trimmed Mean CPI, the key core inflation indicator, dropped to 2.9% y/y from a revised 3.3% gain in Q4 2024. This is the first time in three years that core CPI is back within the RBA's target band of between 1-3%.
The drop in core inflation is good news for the government, with the national election on Saturday. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers jumped on the news, stating that the market expects four or five rate additional rate cuts this year, which would save households with mortgages "hundreds of dollars".
The Reserve Bank is expected to lower rates at its next meeting on May 20, which would mark only the second rate cut this year. After cutting rates in February, the central bank has stayed on the sidelines as US President Trump's tariffs have escalated trade tensions and sent the financial markets on a roller-coaster ride.
In the US, the markets are bracing for some weak data later today. ADP employment is expected to slip to 108 thousand, compared to 155 thousand in the previous release. ADP is not considered a reliable gauge for Friday's nonfarm payrolls, but a weak reading will only increase the anxiety of the nervous markets. US first-estimate GDP for Q1 is expected to slide to just 0.4% q/q, after a 2.4% gain in Q3. If there is a surprise reading from GDP, we could see a strong reaction from the US dollar after the release.
AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6403. Above, there is resistance at 0.6431
0.6357 and 0.6329 are the next support levels Markets eye US, Canada job reports, US dollar steadiesThe Canadian dollar has taken a break after an impressive three-day rally, in which the currency climbed about 2%. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4148, up 0.39%. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar touched 140.26, its strongest level since December.
The hottest financial news is understandably the wave of selling in the equity markets, but there are some key economic releases today as well. The US and Canada will both release the March employment report later today.
The US releases nonfarm payrolls, with the markets projecting a gain of 135 thousand, after a gain of 151 thousand in February. This would point to the US labor market cooling at a gradual pace, which suits the Federal Reserve just fine. The Fed will also be keeping a watchful eye on wage growth, which is expected to tick lower to 3.9% y/y from 4.0%. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%.
The employment landscape is uncertain, with the DOGE layoffs and newly-announced tariffs expected to dampen wage growth in the coming months. Canada's employment is expected to improve slightly to 12 thousand, after a negligible gain of 1.1 thousand in February. Unemployment has been stubbornly high and is expected to inch up to 6.7% from 6.6%.
US President Donald Trump's tariff bombshell on Wednesday did not impose new tariffs on Canada, but trade tensions continue to escalate between the two allies. Canada said it would mirror the US stance and impose a 25% tariff on all vehicles imported from the US that do not comply with the US-Canada-Mexico-Canada free trade deal. The US has promised to respond to any new tariffs against the US, which could mean a tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs between Canada and the US.
USD/CAD has pushed above resistance at 1.4088 and 141.26. The next resistance line is 1.4170
1.4044 and 1.4006 are the next support levels
Markets eye US, Canada job reports, US dollar steadiesThe Canadian dollar has taken a break after an impressive three-day rally, in which the currency climbed about 2%. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4148, up 0.39%. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar touched 140.26, its strongest level since December.
The hottest financial news is understandably the wave of selling in the equity markets, but there are some key economic releases today as well. The US and Canada will both release the March employment report later today.
The US releases nonfarm payrolls, with the markets projecting a gain of 135 thousand, after a gain of 151 thousand in February. This would point to the US labor market cooling at a gradual pace, which suits the Federal Reserve just fine. The Fed will also be keeping a watchful eye on wage growth, which is expected to tick lower to 3.9% y/y from 4.0%. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%.
The employment landscape is uncertain, with the DOGE layoffs and newly-announced tariffs expected to dampen wage growth in the coming months.
Canada's employment is expected to improve slightly to 12 thousand, after a negligible gain of 1.1 thousand in February. Unemployment has been stubbornly high and is expected to inch up to 6.7% from 6.6%.
US President Donald Trump's tariff bombshell on Wednesday did not impose new tariffs on Canada, but trade tensions continue to escalate between the two allies. Canada said it would mirror the US stance and impose a 25% tariff on all vehicles imported from the US that do not comply with the US-Canada-Mexico-Canada free trade deal. The US has promised to respond to any new tariffs against the US, which could mean a tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs between Canada and the US.
USD/CAD has pushed above resistance at 1.4088 and 141.26. The next resistance line is 1.4170
1.4044 and 1.4006 are the next support levels
