Oil prices have dropped more than 1% at both the sides of the Atlantic and that has dragged down European stocks. Asian stocks were weak as well despite surprise rate cut by Bank of Korea.
S&P 500 is just 0.5% away from record highs and could turn lower from here if losses in oil result in a weak closing. This is because weak day end closing today would confirm...
FTSE 100 has advanced for the fourth consecutive session today to trade well above 6291 (May 31 high). Consequently, the index now looks set to test inverse head and shoulder neckline seen on the weekly chart around 6400 levels.
The rise or the resilience in FTSE indirectly tells us Brexit is not really a issue. Moreover, equities are usually the most sensitive...
Major part of the rally in US stocks since late 2012 appears to have been fuelled by Yen carry trade. Remember Bank of Japan was the first one to fire and the stage was set after Abe came to power. BOJ announced easing in April 2013 and followed it with another surprise in October 2014.
BOJ's aggressive actions also forced ECB and other central banks to press the...
Concerns surrounding Europe's banking sector suddenly seemed to have vanished away from the markets. However, Stoxx 600 index chart clearly shows the larger falling trend line is intact and a bullish break from a smaller symmetrical triangle failed.
Caution is advised at least as long as the larger falling trend line isn't breached.
Resistance – 17,900, 18,000, 18,167
Support – 17,700, 17,550, 17,400
Oil benchmarks are fast losing ground after OPEC failed to reach new oil supply agreement. US oil intraday chart now shows head and shoulder formation. In case prices break below neckline, selling interest could spike.
This could drag energy and mining shares lower, thus derailing US...
-Structure LH´s and LL´s
-ABCD in play
-Overall uptrend if we look at the weekly chart
-Arrows show what could happen
I see this big move to the down as a major retracement for the weekly chart.
Looking at the COT data, smart money has turned net short during mid - late May.
For me this indicates a bearish market, We have seen a sharp move up from 2040 to the current price, but funds have shorted into this price move also (these are smart money but more sensitive to more short term price changes.
In addition, we are reaching a relative market top if you...
Resistance – 17,934, 18,000, 18,167
Support – 17,811, 17,710, 17,500
Pattern – Bullish break from flag formation
Daily chart shows a bullish break from flag formation, which indicates continuation of rally from February low.
Daily RSI has also seen a bullish break.
Consequently, 2016 high of 17,934 stands exposed.
Bullish invalidation...
Nifty advanced today in line with positive global cues and also marked its third gap up opening of the current rally from February lows.
For me, a third gap up opening is usually a sign of reversal in a sense that "dumb money" has entered into markets. This view would gain further credence if the index fails to take out/sustain above inverse head and shoulder...
Resistance – 17,758, 17,811 (Apr 1 high), 17,934 (May 10 high)
Support – 17,638, 17,539 (23.6% of Feb low-Apr high), 17,418 (May 18 low).
Daily chart pattern – Falling channel
Sharp rally seen yesterday pushed up RSI back above 50.00. Given the futures are trading 70 points higher, the index is likely to open around 17,758 (channel resistance).
...
Here we have a bearish Gartley pattern on the USD/CHF monthly chart.
As per Gartley rules, point B should retrace 0.618 from the XA move. Over here B is sitting around 0.622%. Though a slight violation, I would give it a pass given the exact 0.618 move is rare.
The D wave is likely to go up to 1.0736, where sellers are likely to come-in.
Gap down open
Company reported a rise in underlying profits but warned the revamp will hit profits in the short-run.
Daily Chart - Looked like it was forming a text book inverse head and shoulder formation..But with today’s gap down opening the hopes have dimmed. Gap filling may happen, however, on monthly chart shows rising trend line has been breached.
...
Resistance – 17,539-17,544, 17,640, 17,698
Support – 17,418, 17,280, 174,149
Dow’s rejection at 55-day EMA at 17,544 yesterday followed by a negative day end closing at 17,492 levels indicates the bulls are likely to remain at the bay and the prices could drop to 17,330 levels.
However, futures indicate the index is likely to open higher around...
Monthly chart - Bullish Cypher in the making
All Cypher conditions appear to have been met. The D leg appears to have begun in April last year. (high of 7127 levels)
The 78.6% retracement comes to around 5284. The level almost coincides with 50% Fibo of 2009 low-2015 high level which comes around 5294. A break below 1.1196 preferably on day end closing basis...
Resistance – 6200, 6244, 6311
Support – 6119, 6050, 6000
FTSE’s rebound from 6119 (38.2% of Apr 2015 high-Feb 2016 low) if followed by a day end closing today above daily 200-SMA of 6149 would signal short-term bearish invalidation and open doors for a rise to 6208 (23.6% of Feb low-Apr high).
On the lower side, rejection at daily 200-SMA followed by...
Chart describes relationship with Federal Funds Rate X Federal Reserve US Bond Holdings vs. S&P 500
Increasingly throughout the years markets behavior has been dictated by actions of US Central Bank Federal Reserve.
Following actions and words of Federal Reserve officials have been important elements in forecasting overall market behavior and direction.
Resistance – 17,539, 17,688, 17,811
Support – 17,399, 17,311, 174,149
Given the uptick in the European stocks and US index futures, Dow index could open on a positive note around 17,480-17,500 levels.
As long as resistance at 17,539 (23.6% of Feb low-Apr high) – 17,547 (daily 50-SMA) isn’t breached, the bears are likely to remain control.
On...
