Ideally (a) of b should target the .382 which is 3947 minimally....but be aware of a potential completion at the 3890-95 area at the .236. With the red count still hanging out there we should be prepared for shallow retraces. To the degree this b wave plays and retraces to the ideal location of 4030-4040 then the Red Count again loses even more probability. ...
I can say that the lows are in for now, but the only issue is the timing, its not going to bottom till the 22nd. So to me it seems its going to test lows 3750ES zone by the 22nd and then go up into early high next week on the 26-27th. Thursday should mark the bottom and then go up on Fri hard on the data is my thinking. That high should be limited to 3950-60SPX imo
In my weekend update I outlined the below. “However, my primary expectation is minor (wave 3 of a) completed on Friday at the 3855 level and now we’re carving out our minor wave 4. If my primary micro count is what is playing out then wave 3 extended to almost the 1.618% Fib support area . Therefore, I would expect the corrective retracement to stay slightly...
Havent updated my ES progress chart, here is one If first box is taken (which I think has high chances of holding tonight), then the second box in 3750ES zone should hold and bounce into the open. If second box gets hit early am before the open, it will be a perfect buying opportunity for me for a 100 points move up plus
Currently I am short -25 calls that expire EOM Dec 22. I'm short -10 4200 Calls which are almost worthless and -15 4100 calls in which I'm up almost 65%. Those positions enable me to put on opposing short put trades without utilizing any additional buying power . I'm now short -25 3700 EOM Dec Puts at $10.50 for an additional $13,054.50 in premium. This would...
A walk through of what I think is the most probable price action for the week. I'll update on a static chart tomorrow. Good luck!
We're coming into the bottoming zone I forecasted. As price finishes its minor wave 5 of c of larger a, we could get down to as low as the 3799 -3810 area. Price should bottom soon, in which I expect a rally back to as high as the 4044 level. This could be a nice tradeable rally for at least 120 to as much as 200 points. In the area of 3795 I may strike...
The ES one hour time frame is in a large sideways range. The market is near the bottom of the range but has not closed below support. It will be a good idea to wait for the market to enter into the sell zone before looking for selling ideas. Entry: Counter trend line break bearish in the sell zone below the one hour support. STOP: In the buy zone above the...
SPX - Will we close above or below this trendline today? Lets go through yesterday CPI came out lower so US equities headed higher, DXY headed lower but now look where we are. Today we have FOMC - In my opinion we can't even close above it do we today we took back all move of CPI if we close below it I think we back within these ranges and perhaps bears gain...
Next Support Level Being Tested The key support level identified in our trading plans published on Wed., 12/07 - and, reiterated on Thu., 12/15 - at 3900-3910 has been decisively broken down, and the index is now testing the next key support level around the 3825-3835 range. Our models are indicating a range-bound trading while the index is trading within the...
We have been watching this setup since Oct & Nov but it was held off by the wu-tang double bottom bounce and the nearly 20% move off the lows. Keep eyes on the markets here for a flush. Historically significant crossover as I have pointed iut in past published videos and charts with huge potential for extreme downside pressure. DXY holding the 103 support is...
Good morning all. As we get ready for today's trading day we find price is consolidating in our minor wave 4 with ultimately one more poke lower towards the 3830 to 3800 region. Technically, this micro wave 4 can be done so I have indicated that with an alternative purple 4 on the below micro chart. This is an alternative if price breaches 3855 without moving...
After a crazy, news heavy week, I expect price to begin bullish, and end bearish. Next week, we have the Consumer Confidence, GDP, and PCE releases. It will be interesting to see if we do in fact see a santa rally to finish the year off. In ICT fashion, I expect the high of week to be made on tuesday / wednesday.
Pay attention to the very real possibility that the current GAP will be filled early this week as price attempts to find a base/bottom after last week's selling. I expect moderate volatility and a change of trend as we move closer to Christmas. Initially, we'll see some moderate downward price pressure, then we'll see a shift upward near the end of this...
Currently the S&P 500 can be seen in 3 views. I have a primary view and two alternates: First, the yellow path - my primary. After the FED comes out today, I think it'll cause a pullback in the market, but it won't be what everybody is expecting. I expect the pullback to complete a small correction from the top and pull back to around 3880-3900. Bears will...
Friday saw the futures contract continue to come down from the CPI spike to 4180 with a close at 3872. That turns out to be a loss of 7.5% in 2 trading days. My primary analysis is we’re in a corrective decline that will take on a 3-wave shape...this decline only being the “a” wave. It’s my primary expectation that price will bottom in this “a” wave possibly as...
Green indicates Bull Thesis Red indicates Bear Thesis We have seen a rejection from our well-respected channel that began at the start of 2022. Best Case Scenario (Bulls) Dip to lowest point around 3800s, then retest previous highs of 4180. Best Case Scenario (Bears) Dip to lowest point around 3600, then slight leg up towards 0.5 fib around 3800, reject 3800 leg...
We see continuing with Daily One Time Framing Lower. I'll remain bearish if we RTH opens below 3885. If we'll have Christmas rally, 4060 will be tested going to 2023 But if only $ES breaks above 3906 $SPY $MES $SPX #OrderFlow 🙌 CME_MINI:ESH2023