So many things saying sell and take profits right now it's not even funny.
500 is the first real support. If that green wave iii uptrend is to stay in play, we need to bounce at 500, which would only be -3% or so.
Then 485 is the next support at the bottom of the uptrend channel. If 485 is broken then those red downtrend C waves are in play.
1. SPY ran into...
Job data this morning caused a movement exactly as I anticipated and discussed yesterday. The move lower I suspected came yesterday as I anticipated, so now I'm just looking to see if we can move below this 5204 12hr support line. To date, the 12hr has been the major support level to stop any movement down since November which is why we have not seen a Daily trend...
Longer video but hopefully it clarifies my position in the market. I do NOT have a short position yet, but I am looking for one at this point. I might wait until either the close of the day depending on where we are OR take a short position if the overall day goes negative.
Trends into today;
Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract)
30m - 5724 Uptrend...
The S&P500 index (SPX) came extremely close to hitting the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) yesterday for the first time in 5 months (since November 02 2023)! As you realize, this is a key Support for the uptrend and the Channel Up in particular, which has been the dominant pattern these months to drive the index to High after High.
The fact that the price is...
The S&P500 remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.356, MACD = 47.470, ADX = 36.597) but today is having so far the strongest bearish 1D candle since December 15th 2022. Having hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up at the start of the week, this can be a technical correction to at least the 1D MA100 if the 1D MA50 breaks. Consequently we...
The S&P500 index / US500 hit the top of the Channel Up that started in August 2022.
If the 1week RSU crosses under its MA trend line, we will have a sell confirmation, much like July 31st 2023 and February 20th 2023.
The minimum decline has been -6.06%. Another one of this magnitude, conveniently tests the 0.382 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up and more...
After yesterday's sell off market is trying to rally during ETH session.
If traders can stay above yesterday's Close, we might get a bounce today.
Level to watch: 5252.00 --- 5250.00
Reports to watch:
US: EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
US: Jerome Powell Speaks
12:10 PM ET
The month of March starts with the bullish momentum from the previous month Feb 2024.
February closed with strength while creating a new ATH which I expect March to breach with ease.
I will like to note: Monthly candle started on Friday March 1.2024
This is only of importance for the next sessions of intraday.
Weekly candle has not closed yet. I will add...
NYSE:ES is currently stronger than NQ, consistently making higher highs and higher lows. Typically, after each high and low, ES retraces within that range, finds more buyers, and continues the trend. At present, we haven't retested the previous higher high at 5257, so I'm not interested in longs until we have a defined retest of the prior higher high, or zones...
This is an alternative analysis for my count. My last count from March is still valid.
If we finish here @ Y wave here we will not make a new low. Or we have another leg down after X wave journey. Y to Z and finished the pattern
Four straight down days and S&P 500 closing at its Low yesterday does not bode well for the Bulls. If today closes at its Low again then we could get a pullback.
Level to watch: 5290 --- 5292
The S&P500 is highly overbought on the 1W technical outlook (RSI = 77.490, MACD = 202.930, ADX = 73.429) and hasn't provided the slightest correction under the key 1D MA50 trendline since November 3rd 2023. In spite of that, the index can keep rising without providing such a correction, let alone enable us to time it. Its structure of this nonstop rise since...
The S&P500 index hit yesterday the top of the 19 month Channel Up. That was the first time since it started trading.
This is a strong sell signal and considering that the MA50 (1d) has been intact since the November 3rd 2023 bullish break out, we expect to cross under it now.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 4950 (-6.00%, 0.618 Fib...
The black arrow/path is my near-term forecast, I expect price to trade along this trajectory. As the title indicates, the market is near-term bullish but don't enter long or add until Feb 27th for the following reasons:
1) chart perspective : The structure is setting up for a sustained break of 5039 to make a final leg higher to complete a smaller degree wave 5...
Yesterday’s FOMC meeting ended as widely anticipated, with no change to monetary policy. During the press conference, the FED’s chairman reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control and outlined a strong economy and tight labor market. Jerome Powell also described inflation as being on a downward trajectory and explained the need to...
In the infamous words of Mark Twain, we are analyzing today the S&P500 index (SPX) on the long-term 1W time-frame. This is a cyclical perspective obviously, attempting to find similarities between past and present price action, in anticipation of projecting the trend in the near future.
As you can see, the index is replicating quite closely the 1W price action...
ES has reached it's measured move target from the 2022 low, but can there be more beyond this? ES is consolidating within a triangle getting ready for another move, just in time for FOMC.
