4180 Break and Retest on Both Sides
There's tons of resistance/support @4180 and a major trendline thriving upward (will it become a Bear Flag to break?) {who knows]
Just drifting sideways, indicators are neutral. I think MFI goes oversold tomorrow morning on RTY and ES, will wait until then to BTFD, lol.
I think it's gonna be a whipsaw day. Futures need to sell off but lots of dip buyers already. Slept in (kinda obvious now, lol) because I was all cash, no positions. Will take a potshot at the market again tomorrow if...
Yesterday market tested February Highs and got rejected.
For this rally to continue , yesterday's High needs to be breached.
Level to watch: 4164- 4162
Reports to watch:
US:EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
US: Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
So after sitting out yesterday, I am short yet again today at 4180.
I am looking for some continued downward movement now that we are developing some downtrends, and then I expect the potential of a brief bounce back up. If this is the end of this rally, basically I want to see a good 60 points drop, a 30 point rebound, and then another move back to meet new...
In this update we review the recent price action in the emini #SP500 futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
The S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call exactly one month ago:
The confirmation for the buy was given by the 1D RSI Bullish Cross. As the price is approaching the top of the Channel Up, which is projected to be within 4230 - 4250, we start looking for signals to sell. Naturally the 1D RSI giving the opposite signal (Bearish Cross)...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities ended slightly higher at the lower end of today's trading range. It was another one of those days that meant little by itself yet a story is unfolding within the context of a string of these days.
➤ When prices leapt higher from the March low, we saw the aggressive acceleration with large-sized daily moves and price gaps...
This is a weekly chart of the difference between the front month contract and the next contract in front for S&P 500 Futures. (Don't worry, you don't need to understand this lingo to understand this post, but if you'd like more information about what front month contract and next contract in front mean, I added links at the bottom of this post. To put it...
"Inflation Peaked" Relief v/s "Recession Onset" Concern
With the CPI and FOMC minutes almost confirming the cooling off of the inflation and potential "mild" recession, markets are on-and-off with the sense of relief for a day and with the sense of concern another day. The imminent earnings season should help decide which way the sentiment would settle towards....
So I ended up jumping out yesterday as the price went up to 4160 for only a 750 gain. I had said my long position was to go in to any appearance that yet another buy the dip mentality surfaced, but I ended up not taking that trade and have no open position at the moment.
Heading into today, the issue I see is we are mostly maxed out, yet again, to the uptrends....
gm,
unlike the nasdaq which has put in a clean looking 5 waves up from the lows -
the spx did not.
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what this opens the door for, is a raid of the lows.
in this case, based on my current primary trajectory on the us dollar, i am going to be anticipating an expanded flat.
aka -> raid of the low to trip the accumulated liquidity down below, followed by a...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities finished in a robust manner at the highs although it was a low volatility day. It looks like the price is digesting the break out of the short-term consolidation prior to jumping higher. The question is how much higher?
➤ I studied the Wyckoff Method some years ago under the teachings of well-known proponents Roman...
MFI hit oversold and you can see the reversal. SPX now green.
I assume the algos are gonna do another pump and dump to get the gap fill above, but earnings might cause a whipsaw. Not to mention the Euros can still cause a gap down.
Regardless I'm bullish because it;s now or never for the gap fill, lol.
I don;t recommend shorting anything, I think bond yields...
MFI dropping fast but it's just going sideways. Wound up even on my options plays so decided to flip everything, just gonna wait until ES MFI goes oversold then go long. It appears ES is gonna get the gap fill after all.
Strange rotation from tech to small caps, and tech is barely red. Market probably just whipsaws today.
ES1! 65m: Intraday levels, VPOC 4139.50, Inside bar on sessions for 1D-4D and could remain in range for acute horizons; Earnings and VOL levels in consideration; Weak breadth on daily internals// KLs: 4176, 4164, 4156.50, 4147, 4117.75, 4139.50, 4110.75, 4098.75// Price at time of publish: 4154.25// Bias: Neutral
The S&P500 is pulling back today after it hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level on Friday. The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 61.663, MACD = 33.310, ADX = 42.403) as the current rise is the bullish leg that started on the Higher Low of the Channel Up and technically peaks near 4,250. That is our short term target and don't see a correction before that.
Of course we...
