🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ A dull Tuesday for equities. There was nothing in the price action of importance. All eyes on Wednesday inflation day.
➤ Yesterday, a reader made the same comment about the low volume Easter Monday trade. I pretty much agree with that statement. Individually, each trading day may in itself have no particular bearing but together...
The S&P500 gives a very clear impression as to what the situation is on the 1W timeframe. Despite the recovery early this year with the index crossing above the 1 year LH trendline, thus getting out of the Bear Cycle, the 1W technicals are basically neutral (RSI = 56.583, MACD = 37.340, ADX = 36.258). A big part of it is because the index has been ranging inside...
Good morning! 🌞
Shared this larger projection last year; and we're still gradually grinding in this Wave B.
Wave B's, aka "sucker's rallies," are notorious for luring in average suckers.
Don't be one! 😄
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SPY wave B target = 454 🎯
SPY wave C target = 300- 🎯
original idea:
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The chart above shows the S&P 500 (SPX) relative to the price of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (1/US10Y). As you can see, when adjusted in this way, the S&P 500's decline in 2022 is no longer apparent. This could be a warning that further stock market decline is to come.
Let's walk through why this may be. First, it is important to understand that an interest...
Exuberant Pumping-up to Settle Back Into Reality? Day 7
In our trading plans published Tue. 04/04, we wrote: "With the quarter-end window dressing, and the new month beginning related artificial/seasonal boost to the markets behind us, the reality of the economy, inflation, and the interest rates soon to be driving the markets again. Whether it would be...
So, while I'm actually Long at the moment from 4120, I still see the market heading south here shortly. I think the lack of volume has caused a delay in the corrective action I'm looking for.
I took the Long based on my "Long Position" from yesterday, where I reversed my short into a Long to see if I can skim off the top. I still have numerous indicators and...
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities recovered (again) from an ugly start on Easter Monday. While half of the world were still on holidays, equities gradually fell prior to US market open only for the Bulls to come in to support the price at the critical levels. By the end of days' trade, the S&P500 made a round trip back to where it settled prior to the...
Top of mind for investors and traders right now is whether or not the S&P 500 has reached its bottom. While this is an impossible question to answer and depends on which timeframe one is looking for a bottom, I will attempt to provide an general analysis below.
First, the chart above is a quarterly chart (each candle represents a 3-month period) of the S&P 500....
The S&P500 index (SPX) has extended its rise since our buy call 21 days ago:
The price is at the moment on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 28. The Higher Lows trend-line below offers an additional Support level, with the last resort being the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) below, in case the 4H RSI breaks towards the Green Zone....
Exuberant Pumping-up to Settle Back Into Reality? Day 6
In our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 04/04, we wrote: "With the quarter-end window dressing, and the new month beginning related artificial/seasonal boost to the markets behind us, the reality of the economy, inflation, and the interest rates soon to be driving the markets again. Whether it would...
So I am back in short yet again at 4140, and again expect a movement down to a 6hr downtrend to correct the 6hr violation that occurred. Once we get to that point, I'll evaluate how the move is going to see if I think we will continue to break lower, hold in that area, or the rally will bounce and return.
I have a side trade going on the 6E again. Perhaps my...
While this isn't a textbook example of a H&S in terms of symmetry, failure to close above previous high would create a convincing example of a H&S.
With the most recent jobs report, the 25bps hike in May has become a stronger possibility. With CPI being released next Wednesday, this upcoming week could give a more positive indication on direction over the medium...
So it looks like the NFP is certainly bullish for S&P500 index:
Approaching a daily zone of demand, the price formed a double bottom formation on 4h,
successfully violated its neckline and reacted positively on its retest.
I will expect a bullish continuation and retest of a local high 4137
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