EURUSD Rejection From Supply or Launchpad for the Next Leg Up?EURUSD is sitting at one of those decision zones where structure and macro are about to pick a winner. Price pushed hard into higher-timeframe supply, rejected, and is now grinding inside a tightening structure while dollar and yield expectations stay data-dependent. From my side, this is not a โchase the middleโ spot โ itโs a location trade. Either we reclaim supply and squeeze higher, or we lose structure and rotate back toward deeper demand. The fundamentals right now actually make both paths realistic โ which is exactly why the levels matter more than opinions.
Current Bias
Neutral short term, mildly bullish if resistance breaks cleanly
Price is compressing after rejection from the upper supply zone. Structurally this looks like a decision range. Bias shifts bullish only on confirmed acceptance above the highlighted resistance band. Failure keeps downside rotation in play.
Key Fundamental Drivers
US side: Services PMI remains in expansion, but softer private payroll signals have slightly cooled aggressive USD strength expectations.
Fed policy: Still restrictive, but in hold mode. Market is highly sensitive to inflation prints and labor data for timing of eventual cuts.
Eurozone side: Inflation is easing but not fast enough for aggressive ECB easing. That keeps EUR from being structurally weak.
Rate spread: Still USD-supportive overall, but not widening further right now โ which reduces upside momentum for USD.
Macro Context
Interest rate expectations: Fed on hold with cuts expected later rather than sooner. ECB cautious on cuts due to sticky components of inflation. That narrows forward policy divergence slightly compared with prior months.
Growth trends: US growth signals are mixed but still expansionary in services. Eurozone growth is slower but stabilizing in pockets rather than collapsing.
Commodity flows: No strong commodity shock driving EUR directly. Oil firmness supports USD via inflation expectations more than it hurts EUR specifically.
Geopolitical themes: Elevated geopolitical tension keeps safe-haven flows active at times, which tends to support USD on spikes but not always trend-sustainably.
Primary Risk to the Trend
The biggest risk to a bullish EURUSD break is a hot US inflation print that reprices Fed cuts later and pushes US yields higher. That would strengthen USD broadly and likely trigger rejection from resistance with continuation lower.
On the flip side, a soft CPI would raise the odds of a topside break.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
US CPI (top priority)
US payrolls / labor data follow-through
ECB speaker guidance on rate path
Those will decide whether rate spread expectations widen again toward USD โ or compress toward EUR.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
EURUSD is a major leader pair.
It often drives:
Broad USD index direction
EUR crosses like EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF
It tends to lead sentiment shifts in FX before smaller USD pairs adjust.
If EURUSD breaks higher, expect synchronized pressure in USD pairs like USD/CHF and USD/JPY.
This is not a lagging pair โ itโs a tone setter.
Key Levels
Support Levels:
1.1800โ1.1780 structure support zone
1.1500โ1.1480 major higher-timeframe demand (green zone on chart)
Resistance Levels:
1.1900โ1.1950 supply band
1.2050โ1.2100 major upper resistance zone
Stop Loss (SL):
Below 1.1780 for bullish structure idea
Or below 1.1480 for wider swing positioning
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 1.1950 zone
TP2: 1.2050โ1.2100 zone
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
EURUSD is in a decision range with a neutral short-term bias and a conditional bullish tilt if price can reclaim and hold above the 1.1900โ1.1950 supply zone. The fundamental backdrop is balanced: Fed still restrictive but not tightening further, ECB cautious but not aggressively dovish. The main threat to upside is a hot US CPI that drives yields and USD higher. Key invalidation for the bullish structure sits below 1.1780, with deeper protection near 1.1480. Upside targets sit at 1.1950 first, then 1.2050โ1.2100 if acceptance occurs. As a leader pair, whichever side EURUSD breaks will likely echo across the broader USD complex.
Eurusdtradeidea
EUR/USD Price Outlook โ Trade Setup๐ Technical Structure
TICKMILL:EURUSD On the 60M chart, EUR/USD has broken down significantly from its previous consolidation zones. The pair is currently under severe pressure, having plummeted toward the 1.1550 level.
The technical structure shows a primary Resistance Zone between 1.1570 โ 1.1578, which now acts as a ceiling following the recent breakdown. On the downside, a firm horizontal Support Zone is identified between 1.1522 โ 1.1529. The pair is currently testing the lower boundaries of its descending corridor, and a breach of the 1.1520 handle could accelerate the sell-off toward the 1.1500 psychological mark.
Short-term bias: Bearish while below 1.1578.
Key Resistance: 1.1570 โ 1.1578.
Key Support: 1.1522 โ 1.1529.
๐ฏ Trade Setup (Sell-on-Retest Scenario)
Entry Zone: $1.1570 โ $1.1578
Stop Loss: $1.1585 (Placed strictly above the recent breakdown zone).
Take Profit 1: $1.1529 (Top of the primary support floor).
Take Profit 2: $1.1522 (Lower boundary of the support zone).
RiskโReward Ratio: Approx. 1:2.0 to 1:3.0 (depending on exact entry).
๐ Invalidation:
A decisive 60M candle close above 1.1585 would invalidate the immediate bearish setup, suggesting a potential false breakdown and a move back toward the 1.1600 area.
๐ Macro Background
The Euro is currently facing a "perfect storm" of fundamental headwinds:
Middle East Escalation: The intensified war involving the US, Israel, and Iran has triggered a massive wave of risk-off trade. This has boosted safe-haven demand for the US Dollar (DXY), which is trading near 99.50.
Energy Crisis & Inflation: Surging oil prices, exacerbated by joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian oil depots, are weighing heavily on the Euro (EUR). High energy costs are stoking fears of faster inflation in the Eurozone, which threatens to diminish household spending power.
Economic Data Cues: Investors are shifting focus to Wednesday's US CPI data. Stronger-than-expected inflation could further bolster the Fed's "higher-for-longer" narrative, maintaining downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
๐ Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $1.1570 โ 1.1578$
Support Zone: $1.1522 โ 1.1529$
๐ Trade Summary
EUR/USD is locked in a bearish trend, driven by geopolitical instability and an energy price shock. Technically, the pair is trending lower within a well-defined channel.
Preferred strategy: Look for short opportunities on pullbacks to the 1.1570 resistance area while maintaining strict risk management. Any bounce is currently viewed as a corrective move within a broader downtrend.
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.
EURUSD โ Liquidity Engineering Before Expansion?Market structure shows a clear shift.
After the initial BOS, price formed a temporary HH but failed to continue bullish expansion.
Lower highs + descending trendline confirm short-term bearish pressure.
Now price is compressing.
๐ What am I watching?
โข Sell-Side Liquidity (SSS) resting above
โข Strong demand zone below (SIBI + Order Block confluence)
โข Discount entry inside institutional order block
The plan is simple:
โก๏ธ Allow price to sweep liquidity / tap the demand zone
โก๏ธ Look for displacement from entry zone
โก๏ธ Partial at internal structure
โก๏ธ Final target toward external liquidity
This is not guessing.
This is waiting for price to return to value.
If smart money defends the OB, expansion toward 1.1830+ becomes highly probable.
Patience > Impulse.
Whatโs your bias on EURUSD?
Bullish expansion or further breakdown first?
Follow Forex_Trade-Setup for structured liquidity-based setups.
#EURUSD: Swing Buy Worth Thousands Of Pips! Dear traders,
I hope youโre doing well.
The EURUSD has dropped significantly since the DXY has been bullish this week. We believe the price could reverse from two potential areas: a risky zone and a safer zone. This analysis is entirely based on future DXY movements so keep an eye on its price. Good luck and trade safely. If you like our idea, please like and comment for more!
Team Setupsfx_
EUR/USD Order Flow Shift Favors Downside๐ EUR/USD "THE FIBER" โ Master Bearish Blueprint (Day/Swing Setup)
Welcome, Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OGs) ๐ฉ. We are hunting for liquidity and tracking the "Smart Money" footprints on the world's most traded pair. The Fiber is showing signs of exhaustion, and itโs time to plan our move with surgical precision.
๐น Trade Execution Plan
Asset: EUR/USD (The Fiber)
Sentiment: Bearish / Short Bias ๐
Execution Zone: Any price level entry (Watch for local resistance rejection/lower high formation).
Final Target (TP): 1.16800 ๐ฏ
Rationale: Strong historical support + oversold RSI conditions + Liquidity Trap + Inverse TVC:DXY Correlation. Escape with profits here!
Stop Loss (SL): 1.17800 ๐ก๏ธ (The "Thief" Shield)
โ ๏ธ OG Note: I am not a financial advisor. This is a "Thief Style" blueprintโsetting your TP and SL is your own choice. Take money, make money, but always at your own risk. Rule #1: Protect the capital.
๐ Real-Time Market Feed & Economics (London Time)
Market Snapshot: EUR/USD is currently trading near 1.1724. The pair has seen a slight decline from the midnight high of 1.1791. ๐
Fundamental Drivers: * Safe-Haven Surge: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified, driving investors toward the $USD. ๐ก๏ธ
US ISM Manufacturing PMI: High-impact data is due today at 15:00 London Time. If the result is stronger than expected, expect the Fiber to accelerate toward our target. ๐
ECB Stance: The European Central Bank remains neutral with no immediate rate hikes projected, keeping the Euro under pressure compared to the resilient Greenback. ๐ฆ
๐ Related Pairs & Correlation Analysis
Keep a close eye on these "Partner Assets" to confirm the move:
TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index): ๐ Inverse Correlation (-0.97). If the Index breaks above 98.00, the Fiber is almost guaranteed to sink.
$USD/CHF (Swissie): ๐น Positive Proxy. Usually moves in the opposite direction of EUR/USD. Watch for a bounce at 0.7700 to confirm Dollar strength.
$GBP/USD (Cable): ๐ Side-kick. Often follows the Euro's lead. If Cable breaks its 1.3480 support, it adds massive weight to our bearish Fiber thesis.
๐ต๏ธ Thief Trader Motivation
"The market is a giant safe. You don't need the combination; you just need to wait for the door to be left ajar." ๐
Motivation: Focus on the process, not the pips. A professional trader doesn't guess; they wait for the "trap" to be set and then they strike.
OG Wish: May your entries be sharp, your discipline be iron, and your exits be green. See you at the bank! ๐ฐ๐
#EURUSD: Still Extremely Bullish! Let's see how it goes! EURUSD is currently making minor correction and it is likely to reverse in coming days. We have to area from where price could reverse from. we advise you to read the chart and also do your analysis before making any decision.
Like and Comment For More!
Team Setupsfx_
Without any mental bias, the Euro chart shows that it will be stThis claim, apart from the profit of a few positions, reminds us that it is better to open or change Forex accounts in the Euro currency to avoid losses in the profit of this position.
Which shows the worthlessness of dollar transactions more than before!
Assuming that this analysis is correct, I should remind you that in addition to this analysis, the growth of gold, the decline of the worthless dollar index and other changes in the market will occur, all of which we should examine in their own right.
Currently, the valuelessness of the dollar is reducing the profit from trading!
Good luck...
EUR/USD Price Outlook โ Trade Setup๐ Technical Structure
TICKMILL:EURUSD On the 1H chart, EUR/USD is trading within a tightening Symmetrical Triangle pattern. The pair has established a firm horizontal Support Zone between 1.1777 โ 1.1785, which has successfully repelled multiple downward attempts.
With price currently testing the lower boundary of the triangle and downward momentum slowing, a high-probability opportunity exists to Buy the Support. As long as this floor holds, the pair is expected to bounce toward the descending trendline and the immediate Resistance Zone at 1.1816 โ 1.1825.
Short-term bias: Bullish bias while above 1.1777; structural weakness only on a confirmed break below.
๐ฏ Trade Setup (Buy-at-Support Scenario)
Entry Zone: $1.1777 โ 1.1786$ (Buying at critical support)
Stop Loss: $1.1774$
Take Profit 1: $1.1816$
Take Profit 2: $1.1820$
RiskโReward Ratio: Approx. 1:3.01
๐ Invalidation:
A decisive 1H candle close below 1.1777 would invalidate this buy setup, indicating that the support floor has been breached and exposing the 1.1750 region.
๐ Macro Background
The pairโs performance at this support level will be directly driven by today's key economic data:
German Inflation Data: Preliminary German HICP for February is expected to rise 0.5% MoM. A stronger-than-expected reading would likely fuel a bounce from the support level.
ECB Policy: President Christine Lagarde remains confident that inflation will stabilize at the 2% target in the near term. Her data-dependent stance provides a structural foundation for the Euro.
USD Performance: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is ticking lower near 97.65. However, the upcoming US PPI data release is the primary risk factor that could either strengthen the USD or trigger a Euro rally from support.
๐ Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $1.1816 โ 1.1825$
Support Zone: $1.1777 โ 1.1785$
๐ Trade Summary
The current strategy is to build long positions near the 1.1777 key support, utilizing the defensive nature of the triangle floor.
Preferred strategy: Enter in batches within the support zone with a tight stop below 1.1774. Monitor the market closely during the US PPI release, as a significant beat in US data could pressure this support level.
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.
EURUSD Ascending Channel Targeting Strong HighMarket Structure Overview
Higher timeframe shows prior bearish trend inside a descending channel.
Price formed a double sweep at the lows (liquidity grabs) around 1.1745โ1.1750.
Clear CHoCH followed by BOS to the upside, confirming short-term bullish shift.
Current Structure
Price is now trading inside a well-defined ascending channel.
Internal equal lows (EQL) were swept before bullish expansion.
Recent BOS confirms buyers remain in control intraday.
Liquidity & Key Levels
Weak low formed near 1.1765 (recent sweep area).
Current price compressing near minor resistance.
Major buy-side liquidity sits at the strong high around 1.1840โ1.1850 (marked target).
Order Flow Insight
Higher lows being respected along the channel trendline.
Pullbacks are corrective and shallow.
Bullish momentum candles show continued demand.
Probable Scenarios
Primary Scenario โ Continuation Higher
Minor retracement toward 1.1780โ1.1790
Break above recent weak high
Expansion toward 1.1840 strong high liquidity
Alternative Scenario โ Channel Breakdown
Failure to hold above 1.1760
Break of ascending trendline
Deeper retracement toward 1.1745 demand
EURUSD Under Pressure: Will it Break the 1.1770 Support?
EURUSD Technical Analysis
Feb 25, 2026
Market Outlook: The Euro is currently trading under bearish pressure against the US Dollar. As long as the price remains below the pivot level, the downward trend is expected to dominate today's session.
Bearish Scenario (Main Outlook):
The price is currently trading below the 1.1810 pivot point, targeting the support level at 1.1770.
Confirmation: A break below 1.1770 and a 1-hour or 4-hour candle close below this level will strengthen the bearish momentum, leading the price toward 1.1750.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative Outlook):
If the price manages to break above the 1.1810 pivot level and stabilizes there:
Upside Target: The trend will shift to bullish, targeting the 1.1840 resistance level.
Key Technical Levels:
Pivot Point: 1.1810
Downside Targets (Support): 1.1770 | 1.1750
Upside Targets (Resistance): 1.1840 | 1.1860
EUR/USD Price Outlook โ Trade Setup๐ Technical Structure
TICKMILL:EURUSD On the 1H chart, EUR/USD has regained positive traction after finding a floor near the 1.1740 area. Price has successfully reclaimed the 1.1780 level and is currently advancing toward the 1.1807 โ 1.1812 resistance zone.
The intraday move is supported by a clear ascending trendline, signaling that short-term bullish momentum is building. As long as the pair holds above the trendline and the 1.1773 horizontal support, the structural bias remains bullish. however, a failure to clear the overhead resistance could lead to a period of consolidation.
Short-term bias: Bullish above 1.1773; corrective risk below 1.1769.
๐ฏ Trade Setup (Buy-the-Dip Scenario)
Entry Zone: $1.1773 โ 1.1778
Stop Loss: $1.1769
Take Profit 1: $1.1807
Take Profit 2: $1.1812
RiskโReward Ratio: Approx. 1:3.83
๐ Invalidation:
A sustained break below 1.1769 would invalidate the current bullish trendline and expose the recent lows near 1.1740.
๐ Macro Background
The EUR/USD advance is primarily driven by renewed US Dollar (USD) selling:
Trade Uncertainties: President Trumpโs announcement of a new tariff framework (10% global tariffs for 150 days) has fueled worries about retaliatory measures and global supply chain disruptions, weighing on the USD.
Fed vs. ECB: While January FOMC minutes showed a hawkish tilt, markets are balancing this against ECB President Lagardeโs comments that Eurozone inflation and policy remain in a "good place".
Upcoming Catalysts: Traders are eyeing the final Eurozone CPI and German GDP figures for short-term impetus. Speeches from influential FOMC members later today may also spark volatility.
๐ Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $1.1807 โ 1.1812$
Support Zone: $1.1773 โ 1.1778$
๐ Trade Summary
EUR/USD is benefiting from a "risk-off" sentiment regarding US trade policy, which is undermining the Greenback. Technically, the pair is trending higher within a bullish corridor.
Preferred strategy: Buy dips near 1.1778 while price holds above 1.1769, targeting a retest of the 1.1810 neighborhood. Exercise caution ahead of the Eurozone inflation data release.
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Financial markets involve significant risk; proper risk and position management are essential.
EURUSD: Reversal Almost Confirmed +1500 Pips In Making! FX:EURUSD
As outlined in our previous analysis, the price fell further than anticipated. Given this region, we believe the price has reversed from a crucial level. Consequently, we anticipate a significant price increase. A swing bullish move is possible, potentially gaining around +1500 pips if successful. Please like and comment if you enjoy our work.
Good luck and trade safely!
Team Setupsfx_
EURUSD โ 1HThe pair delivered a strong impulsive breakout to the upside, clearing the previous supply zone with volume support. This move signals a short-term change of character (CHOCH) in market structure. The advance from the lows has transitioned into a higher low โ higher high formation.
Price is currently making a controlled pullback toward the broken zone. This area also aligns with the ascending trendline support, creating a structural and dynamic confluence. This confluence zone offers an optimal risk/reward area for long positioning.
The upside target is the next liquidity pool around the 1.1850 region. If momentum persists, price expansion toward this level is expected.
Scenario validity: The bullish bias remains intact unless we see an hourly close below 1.1800. A break below this level would weaken the structure and shift the outlook back to neutral.
EURUSD Accumulation to Expansion โ Bullish Case๐ฐ EUR/USD "THE FIBER" Breakout Play: Triangular Pullback + Heikin Ashi Reversal Confirmed!
Asset: EUR/USD (The Fiber) ๐
Timeframe: H1 / H4 (Day/Swing Trade)
๐ Trade Idea & Technical Confluence: The "Bull Trap" Escape Plan
The market is serving up a classic Thief Trader setup on The Fiber. After a clean triangular moving average pullback, we have witnessed a successful retest of the breakout zone, confirmed by a beautiful Heikin Ashi doji reversal candle. This indicates that the sellers are exhausted and the bulls are stealthily accumulating.
The plan is BULLISH, targeting the next liquidity grab. However, as any OG knows, the "Police Force" (Institutional Money) is waiting above to create a trap.
Plan: Bullish Continuation ๐
Technical Confirmation:
Triangular Moving Average Pullback: Price retraced smoothly to the dynamic support.
Support Retest: Successfully retested the previous resistance-turned-support zone.
Heikin Ashi Reversal: A doji candle confirmed, signaling the end of the pullback and the resumption of the trend. Candles are turning from red to blue (empty to filled).
๐ฏ Entry Criteria โ The Stealth Entry
Entry Zone: LIMIT or MARKET entry after confirmation. The trigger is a clean break and retest of the internal structure.
Aggressive Entry: Current market price around the retest zone.
Conservative Entry: Wait for a strong bullish candle close above 1.18400. Wait for the "All Clear" signal from the sirens. ๐จ
๐ฐ Take Profit (TP) โ The "Police Force" Barrier ๐
This is where the "Thief" mentality comes in. The level at 1.19100 is expected to act as a magnet, but it will be heavily guarded by the "Police Force" (Strong Resistance / Overbought Conditions).
The Trap: A confluence of strong resistance, potential overbought signals on the RSI/Stochastic, and negative correlation with other assets (like DXY bouncing) suggests this zone is a high-probability reversal spot.
The Heist Plan: Escape with profits before the trap springs! ๐โโ๏ธ๐จ
TP1 (Partial): 1.18800
TP2 (Full): 1.19100
๐ก๏ธ Stop Loss (SL) โ The "Getaway Car" ๐๏ธ
Stop Loss: 1.17900
Logic: Placed just below the recent swing low and the Heikin Ashi reversal candle. If price sinks back to this level, it means the "Alarm" has been tripped and the reversal failed. The getaway car needs to leave NOW to avoid getting caught.
๐ Related Pairs to Watch (The Accomplices)
These pairs validate the USD weakness narrative:
FX:GBPUSD (Cable): Watching for a similar bounce. Bullish correlation expected.
FX:USDJPY : Currently under pressure due to USD weakness and tariff uncertainty. A drop in USDJPY confirms the USD sell-side narrative for this EURUSD trade .
OANDA:XAUUSD (Gold): Gold is bidding higher on tariff fears. If Gold continues its rally towards $5100+, it supports the weaker USD thesis, helping EURUSD long positions .
๐ฐ Fundamental & Economic Factors (Real-Time Feed)
Latest News (As of February 23, 2026):
The "Tariff Tornado" ๐ช๏ธ: The US Supreme Court recently ruled Trump-era tariffs illegal. However, Trump has pivoted and announced a NEW 15% tariff framework . This uncertainty is a double-edged sword, but currently, it is weighing on the USD as traders fear economic slowdown.
Lagarde's Speech Today: ECB President Christine Lagarde is speaking today. Markets are watching for her comments on the EU's retaliation to US tariffs (potential freezing of trade talks). Any hawkish tone on inflation or a strong stance against the US will boost the Euro .
US Data Hangover: Last week's US GDP report showed a sharp slowdown to 1.4% in Q4, despite high inflation readings (PCE). This "stagflationary" vibe is hurting the USD's safe-haven appeal .
Upcoming News to Monitor:
German IFO (Today): A better-than-expected print will add fuel to the fire .
US Tariff Headlines: Any headline regarding the EU's retaliation or details on the 15% tariffs will cause immediate volatility.
๐ฌ Thief Trader Style Motivation & Quotes:
"In a world full of bag holders, be the ghost who takes liquidity and vanishes." ๐ป
"The trend is your friend until the bend at the end. That's where we take profits." ๐๏ธ
"Don't get caught counting pips while the Police are breaking down the door. Focus on the getaway (Risk Management)." ๐
If this analysis helps you plan the heist, smash that Like button and follow for more high-probability setups! ๐ช๐
EURUSD SHORT VIEW!! The dollar was poised on Friday to cap its The dollar was poised on Friday to cap its strongest weekly performance since October, buoyed by a run of better-than-expected economic data, a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and as tensions between the U.S. and Iran kept markets on edge.
EURUSD Analysis: Bullish Momentum Eyes 1.1885 Target!EURUSD Technical Analysis
Feb 16, 2026
Pivot Point: 1.1845 Current Outlook: Bullish momentum as long as the price holds above the pivot.
Bullish Scenario (Main Outlook):
Currently, trading remains above the 1.1845 pivot point, maintaining a bullish bias.
First Target: 1.1885 (Resistance Level).
Confirmation: A 1-hour candle close above 1.1885 will confirm a continuation toward the next target.
Second Target: 1.1900.
Bearish Scenario (Alternative Outlook):
To shift to a bearish trend, the price must strongly break below the 1.1845 pivot.
Condition: A 4-hour candle close below 1.1845 is required to confirm the downside.
Targets: 1.1830 and 1.1815.
Key Levels at a Glance:
Pivot Zone: 1.1845
Bullish Targets: 1.1885 | 1.1900
Bearish Targets: 1.1830 | 1.1815
Is EUR/USD Ready for the Next Bullish Expansion?๐๐ EUR/USD โTHE FIBREโ โ Forex Market Trade Opportunity Guide
(Swing / Day Trade)
The Euro is showing clean bullish structure as price confirms a Simple Moving Average breakout with a successful retest, backed by a MACD Golden Crossover, signaling strengthening upside momentum and trend continuation.
This setup reflects controlled accumulation + momentum alignment, ideal for both swing and active day traders.
โ
BULLISH PLAN โ TECHNICAL CONFIRMATION
๐น Simple Moving Average (SMA):
Price has broken above the SMA and respected it on the retest, indicating a shift from distribution to accumulation.
๐น MACD Golden Crossover:
MACD line crossing above the signal line confirms bullish momentum expansion and trend-following strength.
๐ Together, these signals validate a high-probability bullish continuation environment.
๐ฏ ENTRY STRATEGY โ THIEF LAYER SYSTEM
You may enter at ANY PRICE LEVEL after confirmation, or apply the Thief Layer Strategy for precision positioning.
๐ง Why layering works:
โข Reduces emotional execution
โข Improves average entry price
โข Handles pullback traps efficiently
๐ Buy Limit Layers:
1.16800
1.17000
1.17300
(You can increase or adjust layers based on volatility and account sizing.)
โ STOP LOSS (THIEF SL)
๐ SL @ 1.16500
Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OGโs), always adjust your stop loss based on your own risk management rules.
This SL is a reference level, not a fixed instruction.
๐ฏ TARGET ZONE
Price is approaching a strong resistance zone, where:
โข Overbought conditions may appear
โข Liquidity traps can form
โข A corrective phase is likely
๐ฐ Our Profit Zone: 1.18500
Again, Dear Ladies & Gentlemen (Thief OGโs), this TP is optional.
Protect capital first โ take money when the market offers it.
๐ RELATED PAIRS TO WATCH ($ CORRELATION GUIDE)
๐ต TVC:DXY โ US Dollar Index (Inverse Correlation)
EUR/USD generally moves opposite to DXY
Dollar weakness = Fuel for EUR/USD upside
Watch DXY breakdowns for confirmation of EUR strength
๐ท OANDA:EURGBP โ Euro Strength Indicator
Rising EUR/GBP confirms broad Euro demand
Supports continuation in EUR/USD bullish setups
Weak EUR/GBP = caution on EUR/USD longs
๐ฑ OANDA:USDCHF โ Dollar Flow Companion
USD/CHF falling = USD selling pressure
Often moves inversely to EUR/USD
Breakdown in USD/CHF strengthens EUR/USD bullish bias
๐ด OANDA:EURJPY โ Risk Sentiment Gauge
Bullish EUR/JPY reflects risk-on market behavior
Confirms institutional Euro buying across pairs
Adds confidence to EUR/USD upside continuation
๐ฐ FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
Current Market Drivers:
๐ฆ Federal Reserve dovish stance (recent 25bp cut)
๐ USD in 3-week downtrend
๐ช๐บ ECB policy divergence creating EUR support
๐ Technical breakout aligns with fundamental USD weakness
๐งญ FINAL TAKEAWAY
This EUR/USD setup blends trend structure (SMA), momentum confirmation (MACD), and professional execution (layer entries).
When correlated pairs align, this becomes a high-quality buy-side opportunity, not a random trade.
๐ Trade smart.
๐ Respect risk.
๐ Take profits without regret.
EURUSD: Failed Bullish Breakout Shows Weakness!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of Feb. 16-20th.
EURUSD gave a failed breakout to weeks ago, and traded back into the consolidation range. Not a very bullish indication. That weakness can potentially continue this week, heading towards the bottom of the range.
Wait for the proper confirmations, i.e. CISD, CHoch or BOS, before entering new positions!
Let the market tell you which direction it intends to move.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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