Thesis: US markets outperform EU markets in absolute terms when $ rises against €. EWG/SPY (Germany ETF/SPY both in $) vs EURUSD (red line) I've read many opinions on what happens to US stocks (versus EU stocks) when the dollar rises. Usually people say a strong dollar is bad for US exporters as their revenues will fall and labour costs will rise. Similarly they...
It might work, taking out the EUR of the equation, there's a short-term breakout preceded by a divergence between the german 2-yr bond and the unique currency; as this is a relation, it means that choosing one of the side makes more profit that going for one and keep against the other. Just a matter of options.
Today we added a couple shorts, I'm posting the trades we currently have open but not providing entry/stop suggestions. Only trade them if you have a trading strategy, or, ask me if you're interested in learning more about the one we use (Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' and 'Time at mode'). We have some worrying bearish signals, so it's a good idea to have a...
This is a very, very tight stop loss short setup in the monthly EWG chart. If it confirms (which it might, due to the Deutsche Bank impending collapse), we could get confirmation during October. We'd need price to stay clear from the 26.10 mark for the whole month, so we could use a stop at 26.11 without a problem here, or just trade it with options instead and...
It was a pain trading the DAX all of last week. Several candles indicated tactical bounces off important breakout supports around 10470 - 490, however the index failed to distance itself from key supports, decisively. Friday ended the week with a bullish engulfing pattern. Bigger picture, we are looking at a descending triangle pattern, which I expect to resolve...
Yesterday's candle was actually bullish. Long-legged candles signal reversals, even if the intraday selloff may have suggested otherwise. The key message: breakout levels ~10490 were tested (violated), but held. Index is off to a fresh swing higher, which could target 10860 (late December high) and 10981 (cycle fibo level). With that in mind, yesterday's mini...
Although I always hate to miss putting on trades in a high volatility environment and generally don't like to exit setups merely because "something is happening," Brexit may be one of those special situations where it is likely that whichever way Brexit goes, the movement may be overly large, whether it takes the form of a relief rally on Bremain, or a...
M year triangle calls for 14,000 after the possible correction