The Japanese yen has looked sharp lately but is considerably lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.75, up 0.55%. The yen has rallied for five straight days, gaining 2.4% during that time. The US inflation rate crept higher in February. Headline CPI climbed 3.2% y/y, up from 3.1% in January and above the market estimate of...
The British pound has started the trading week in negative territory. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2807, down 0.39%. The pound has posted six straight winning days and climbed 1.56% last week against the US dollar. The UK releases the employment report on Tuesday. The labor market has remained resilient even with the steep rise in...
Before significant interest rate hikes, I have claimed that Bitcoin is decoupling from the rest economy (which probably happened). However, the effect of rising interest rates still had some power over the Bitcoin in the tank. It seems that this power of raising interest rates is diminishing for Bitcoin relative to the rest of the economy which will probably...
The euro is barely making a peep on Thursday, ahead of the European Central Bank’s decision later in the day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0894, down 0.04%. The ECB is expected to follow the Federal Reserve’s pause and hold the deposit rate at 4.0% for a fourth straight time. Have ECB rates peaked? The answer seems yes, but ECB policy makers...
The Australian dollar has posted strong gains on Wednesday despite a weak GDP report today. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6562, up 0.90%. Australia’s economy ended 2023 on whimper rather than a gain, as GDP rose just 0.2% q/q the fourth quarter. This was lower than the 0.3% gain in the third quarter and missed the market estimate which...
The analysis on XAUUSD highlights a likely corrective period for gold, in line with the movement of the US dollar and Treasury bond yields. After a period of steady growth, the price of gold is now consolidating recent gains, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling a high level of overbought conditions, potentially foreshadowing an imminent downward...
What market participants expected: - 2023 Sept: Betting one last rate hike (a 4th in year 2023) in Nov/Dec FOMC meeting. - 2023 Dec: No rate hike in Dec FOMC meeting. Afterwards, expected the Fed to cut in March 2024 What the Fed told us: - According to the 'dot plot', majority of committee anticipate a 50-100 bps cut by the end of 2024. - Powell once said...
Undervalued Dollar? Democrats' Influence on Powell's Rate Cut Plans Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to present his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House and Senate starting this Wednesday. The market will be looking for Powell to provide a more specific timeline for interest rate cuts. Currently, the market is pricing in three...
The EUR/USD exchange rate continues to fluctuate within its daily range above the level of 1.0800 during Friday's American session. Economic data from the United States shows that the ISM Manufacturing PMI decreased more than expected in February, making it difficult for the US dollar to gain momentum. Nonetheless, the EUR/USD has found support around 1.0800 but...
I'm expecting to see a continuation of this local uptrend, fully breaking through my descending dynamic channel. USD has improving data, with CAD declining, and quite a lot of data this week that I believe will confirm my assumptions.
Seeing a downward channel so expecting further bearish bias from here. Fundamentals seem to be supporting this too, with cease fire talks in middle east, and I'm expecting continued strength from the dollar this week, supported by the fundamentals news on Thursday and Friday. We're posting HH and HL formation and expect this to continue through this week.
The euro is in negative territory on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0800, down 0.35%. Germany’s inflation rate dropped to 2.5% y/y in February, down from 2.9% in January and lower than the market estimate of 2.6%. This was the lowest level since June 2021, as inflation continues to move closer to the European Central Bank’s...
A nod to @unbeldi And a updated chart Swapping the Bitcoin price to marketcap over the M1 money As BTC is a Trillion dollar asset again and was invented to be peer to peer cash It's good to compare the ratio vs the dollar. And imagine one day in the future that it may dethrone the King. Since BTC is natively digital and global (M2 is slightly larger number...
This video highlights interest rates dropping prior to Fed Meeting prior to March 2024 Meeting. Indicating a Strong correlation for Technical analysis over Market Media.
This current bullish move looks to be running its course, resembling a bull flag. Will be waiting for a confirmation on LTF's to get in short, hopefully before the big news on Friday, which I expect to confirm interest rates staying as they are for longer, and a hawkish fed.
Even though sterling has found recent resilience, we are in a long-term down trend. I believe the recent rally must end, fundamentally the pound is much weaker than the dollar, the UK is in recession and the US looks likely to avoid one. The FED will start cutting rates, but I believe the BoE will act sooner (or at the same time) because it doesn't have the...
Only Twice in 150 Years of US Equities has the Shiller PE ratio gone higher than the 1929 TOP 2000 & 2022 The Shiller PE is useful as it smooths out the PE ratio over a 10 year average ... very useful for forecasting. The financial markets have been perverted & all know this. The #FED can only print and save your Assets after a financial crisis appears on...
The chart provided visually represents the forward guidance issued by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) alongside the performance of various key economic indicators and market indices. The FOMC forward guidance serves as a crucial tool for signaling the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and future intentions, thereby influencing market expectations...