Introduction: In recent weeks, the global oil market has experienced significant turbulence, with oil prices plummeting due to weaker-than-expected economic data from China and mounting rumors surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. As traders, it is crucial to exercise caution and carefully evaluate the potential risks associated with oil...
SPX 500 going to 4200 again, bears are short in heavy this time, fear is back in the markets, maybe 2024 will be a better year...
As markets surge against expectations, many are starting to believe that the impossible might unfold. The unusually low fund allocation to equities reflects a market sentiment plagued by fear, yet mega caps are continuing to rise against expectations, making some investors feel left behind. With GDP figures beating expectations and headline inflation plummeting,...
Money that has been parked at the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility due to the attractively high interest rates the Fed has set for money parked there has been on a steady decline since late 2022, and recently, this year we confirmed a breakdown of a Bearish Dragon, which led to a BAMM move down to complete a Harmonic M-shape. This then represented an influx of...
TMF as shown on a 15 minute chart shows TMF in consolidation at the beginning of the weeks followed by a downtrend when the fed news of the rate hike came out. Today the general market dropped after some federal financial data came out and a treasury auction was a dud with little buyers confounded by Bank of Japan actions inconsistent with the path of the US...
Gold price is higher above $1970 during early New York trading session ahead of the Fed. Fed Powell’s speech will be crucial for gold buyers as 0.25% rate hike priced in. XAUUSD tested 1950 support and bounced yesterday which opened the path to $1970. However, a supply zone from May, around $1983 - 1987, appears a tough nut to crack for the XAUUSD bulls. We will...
Hi Traders! The US dollar is showing signs of fragility after the expected 25 basis point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve and the FOMC press conference today due to the ongoing high inflation issues in the US economy. This was reflected in the price action on the DXY 1D chart. The market hit the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 101.590 to continue...
hello dear trader my opinion on bitcoin... i think the big depression coming soon .... today US New-Home Sales Fall for First Time Since February .... buy gold + silver + bitcoin ( robert kiosaki ) good luck 🍀
hi dear trader my road map for dollar curency index ... One more Fed rate hike at least and a narrowly softer dollar outlook The forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting may be a relatively subdued gathering, leaving exciting loose ends for September. Meanwhile, the dollar could trade around current ranges with a modest softening bias over the rest of...
Hi Traders, we have a busy week ahead. We have 3 central bank interest rate decisions and a few other fundamentals coming up. Week 30/2023 Monday: Purchasing managers' indices DE🇩🇪 , UK 🇬🇧and USA 🇺🇸 Tuesday: ifo business climate index🇩🇪, CB consumer confidence🇺🇸 Wednesday: FED interest rate decision🇺🇸 Thursday: ECB interest rate decision 🇪🇺 Friday: BOJ interest...
The US Interest Rate chart has been trading within a Descending Broadening Wedge and has recently broken out of the wedge. The target for a pattern like this is typically back to the inception of the pattern, which in this case would be 20%; but we also have an additional variable here, and that's the Potential Logscale Harmonic Formation we've made here. If we...
Hi Traders! The US dollar index has bounced back and is trading again above the 100 level ahead of next week's interest rate announcement from the Federal Reserve. Analysing the technical price action on the 1D chart, we had a huge impulsive bearish wave from the 103 level to break the long-term support level at 101.921 and close below the psychological 100...
In this video I explain the current state of the Bitcoin market as seen through the lens of the latest pattern found in the forecast model, "The Lightning Volume". The Federal Reserves interest rate policy continues to create considerable headwinds for the Bitcoin price. When could it end? Watch this video and let me know your thoughts? Thanks for watching!
The Treasury General Account (TGA) prior to the GFC of 2008 averaged between $4 and $5 billion. When the debt ceiling people freaked when it hit $48 billion (9X more than the historic average.) LOL! Today it's $500 billion 100X more than the historic average on its way to $600! Oddly enough to MMTers the TGA has never gone negative (As my friend @HenricCont...
1. Dollar Index has broken down from support. Just touched 200 EMA on weekly chart. 2. Close to end of decline or more room left? 3. What if the Federal Reserve has to cut rates sometime in the next 12 months? Things to think about. ❤ or follow?
As of now, the FED interest rate decision has been announced and the FED has kept the interest rate constant. In addition to keeping it steady, Powell still made harsh and hawkish statements. Personally, I have question marks in my mind about how full these explanations are. Because now the job is not just to reduce inflation and most business sectors have started...
Take some time to focus on the information and macro movement here and compare it with my notes. Why are leading economists and leading institutions fumbling? imagine comparing history prior to 2008 where Quantitative Easing did not exist. No standard macro indicator will be accurate due to the debasement of money that happen during the GFC, compare the SPY to...
Key News: USA - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) USA - Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) USA - Unemployment Rate (Jun) During Thursday's trading session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a decline as robust job market data sparked expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This development subsequently led to a surge in Treasury...