JP MORGAN strong correction underway within 17-year Channel Up.JP Morgan Chase (JPM) has been trading within a 17-year Channel Up since the March 2009 market bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. In early January 2026 the price hit the exact top of that multi-year pattern and got rejected.
The March - April post Iran - U.S. war bottom rally got again rejected 30 days ago and a new (red) Channel Down is emerging, which seems to be the driving pattern of a recurring technical correction that has taken place another 4 times within this Channel Up.
Essentially, those have been the Bearish Legs of the pattern and in the past 5 months we've been on the latest. The current Top formation even looks like a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern aiming at concluding a 1-year long Bear Cycle.
Such have historically been most major corrections within this pattern, with the last two (2022 Inflation Crisis and 2020 COVID crash) bottomed near the 1M MA100 (red trend-line), which is the utmost long-term Support and the one before (2015) bottoming on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
With the 1W RSI currently on a huge Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs against price's Higher Highs) since March 2024 (similar to previous corrections also), we expect the stock to drop to at least $240.00, which like 2015 will make contact with both the 1W MA200 on a similar -29% correction.
That would still be a 'mild' correction compared to the others, not only in % terms but also because the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which has historically always been hit on corrections, sits lower at $113.50.
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Financestocks
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY not a long-term buy yet.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) has been trading within a 17-year Channel Up, which made a Higher High Top last April (2025) and has been declining ever since.
Technically this is a standard pause that the stock historically displays after long-term rallies and it's was on one since the late 2022 bottom. The Channel Up has seen 4 such pauses, all correcting by a minimum of -18.05% and a maximum of -31.15%.
Unless the 1M RSI enters its long-term Support Zone (in which case it's an automatic Buy as this has been the most optimal Buy Signal, giving the exact entry on the last 4 major correction bottoms), we expect the stock to hit 665000 at least, representing the -18.05% minimum drop from the Top. That would still be contained above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which November 2011, has only broken once (during the March 2020 COVID flash crash).
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MASTERCARD Channel Down, ideal for a short.It's been 5 months (November 25 2025, see chart below) since we gave a major Sell Signal on Mastercard (MA), targeting $450 long-term following its 1D Death Cross:
So far the signal is right on track towards our Target and on a lower time-frame (1D) the recent rebound poses as another sell opportunity.
That is because technically that is the Bullish Leg of the 9-month Channel Down and it almost reached the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Even though it can technically rise to as high as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the 1D RSI is almost on its Lower Highs trend-line, which is where all of Mastercard's last 4 major Sells in the last 15 months occurred.
If Friday was the latest Lower High then, our $450 Target would be just above the 1W MA250 (red trend-line), which is where the October 10 2022 Bear Cycle bottom was priced. It is also the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, where the previous two Lower Lows where priced at.
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VISA well on track to hit our $265 Target.Almost 5 months ago (November 17 2025, see chart below), we presented a potential Bear Cycle path on Visa Inc. (V), based on its 7-year Channel Up and the previous 2021/2022 correction:
As you can see, the bearish sequence has been unfolding very accurately and it appears that we are more than halfway through our $265.00 Target.
On today's analysis we zoom in on the 1D time-frame to better locate the dominant medium-term pattern that is driving this bearish sequence. That is a Channel Down and with the use of the Fibonacci Channel levels we can widen it and identify key rejection points and Bearish Legs.
The most common sequence on it has been a roughly -10.30% drop. Such Bearish Legs have occurred 6 times already and we expect at least another to until the $265 Target as shown on the chart. Based on the slowdown of the 1D RSI it is likely that Visa wont break below the 0.236 Channel Fib but still, as you can see, it can still test both the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) and 1W MA300 (black trend-line), which is the market's long-term Support.
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JP MORGAN topped on its 17-year Channel Up. Bear Cycle started.JP Morgan Chase (JPM) has been trading within a 17-year Channel Up since the March 2009 market bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. Last month the price hit the exact top of that multi-year pattern and got rejected. Despite the recent rebound, we expect that to be short-lived, as it's not just the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern that is being formed but that Channel Up Top alone calls for a strong, potentially 1-year long Bear Cycle.
Such have historically been most major corrections within this pattern, with the last two (2022 Inflation Crisis and 2020 COVID crash) bottomed near the 1M MA100 (red trend-line), which is the utmost long-term Support and the before (2015) bottoming on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
With the 1W RSI currently on a huge Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs against price's Higher Highs) since March 2024, we expect the stock to drop to at least $215.00, which like 2015 will make contact with both the 1W MA200 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. At most, if the market repeats the -41.90% decline of 2022, we expect it to hit $195.00 just above the 1M MA100.
A deeper correction (which is quite unlikely based on the current fundamentals) would see JPM target the 0.618 Fib, which is where the 2022 and 2020 corrections bottomed, at $160.00.
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MASTERCARD 1st 1D Death Cross in 2.5 years confirms Bear CycleMastercard (MA) has just formed its first 1D Death Cross since March 2022, trading already below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the 5th straight week. This confirms the new Bear Cycle/ long-term correction, in a similar manner that the September 27 2021 1D Death Cross did.
As you see, there are high similarities between the two sequences that led to that Death Cross, rising by +134% and +116% from their respective market bottoms and more importantly displaying identical huge 1D RSI Bearish Divergences (Lower Highs against price's Higher Highs).
As a result, with the 2022 correction finding a bottom just below the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1W MA250 (red trend-line), we again expect the market to reach at least $450.00 before bottoming and start calling it a buy opportunity again.
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VISA flashed a huge Sell SignalVisa Inc. (V) has been trading within a 7-year Channel Up and two weeks ago closed below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Given that this took place after a June Higher High, we can claim that this break-out has confirmed the new Bear Cycle/ Leg of the pattern.
Observe the incredible symmetry of the 1W MACD, which on the current level (-0.0058), it was when the November 01 2021 and March 09 2020 breaks below the 1W MA50 occurred. They both eventually crashed to the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up.
As a result, we officially turn bearish on this stock and based on the previous Bearish Leg that broke below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and hit the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level before rebounding into the new Bullish Leg, we expect to see the price drop to $265.00 before forming a bottom. That would be a potential contact with the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) as well.
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MASTERCARD Best buy entry now. Target $625.Mastercard (MA) has been trading within almost a 3-year Channel Up that only broke (but recovered naturally) during Trump's trade war. Still, the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) contained the downfall, as it always had.
Normally the Bearish Legs of this pattern tend to find Support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), as the latest one did 3 weeks ago. Now that the price is trading still on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, it historically is the best buy opportunity, as per all previous Bullish Legs.
The Channel Up has always priced its Higher High (top) on at least the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we are targeting $625.00 before the year ends.
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VISA on a strong Bullish Leg targeting $440.Visa Inc. (V) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 10 2022 market bottom. After December 2022, every test of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the most optimal long-term buy opportunity, being also a Higher Low (bottom) of the pattern.
Every Bullish Leg has been +5% stronger than the previous, which leads us to believe that the current Bullish Leg will peak at around +49.50% (+5% from +44.60%). This translates to $440 Target towards the end of the year.
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JP MORGAN won't give a better buy opportunity in 2025.Last time we looked at JP Morgan Chase (JPM) on November 27 2024 (see chart below), it gave us a clear sell signal that went straight to our $236 Target:
Now that the price rebounded not only on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but also on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up, we are switching back to buying a we even got the first pull-back on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Given that the 1D RSI also rebounded from oversold (<30.00) territory like the October 27 2023 Low did, we expect a similar Bullish Leg to follow and thus our Target is $330 at the top of the Channel Up.
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BlackRock: Top Confirmed!Just shy of the lower edge of our Target Zone, BlackRock recently established its high at $1,082.45, completing the beige wave b. The Target Zone has since been deactivated. With this milestone reached, we now anticipate a prolonged decline as part of the beige wave c. This development aligns with the overarching correction of the blue wave (II), which began in November 2021 and is defined by a subordinate abc-structure. From the $1,082.45 high, we primarily expect a sustained price decline. However, this level now serves as a critical resistance. In the context of our 36% likely alternative scenario, we must allow for the possibility of a new wave alt.b high above this mark.
MASTERCARD short-term weakness is a buy opportunity. Target $515Mastercard (MA) gave us an excellent sell signal on our last call (April 02, see chart below), reaching our exact Target ($440.00) before turning sideways and reach this way a Higher Low:
That Higher Low was a bottom on the 2-year Channel Up pattern that has been dominating the long-term price action of the stock. As you can see it hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and has rebounded since, which is similar to the March 16 2023 Low.
The similarities are evident on this chart between the Bullish and Bearish Legs of the Channel Up and the Sine Waves help at giving us a sense of Highs and Lows. The 1D RSI sequences between the two main fractals are also similar and this shows that probably we are at a similar symmetrical level as on July 14 2023.
As a result, we expect a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then final rally towards the elections for a Higher High around $515.00, which will be just below the -0.236 Fibonacci extension (similar to the September 14 2023 High). Then we expect the stock to yet again seek the bottom of the Channel Up near the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) at $460.00.
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