Since the start of January, most leading macro markets have experienced a reversal around their 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. However, BTC has shown resilience and fought the cross-asset sell-off. This divergence is likely driven by the fact that there has been over $1 trillion in net liquidity added to the market since the bottom in October, primarily...
February proved to be an interesting month for US30. Throughout the majority of the month, we traded sideways, ranging directly below the key price sensitivity level of 34000. This level had previously caused price reactions, and as buyers began to liquidate positions due to fear and anticipation of continued rate hikes and bad economic data, price began to range,...
On Friday, the US Core PCE price index was released at 0.6% (Forecast: 0.4%). As the Core PCE price index is a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, a stronger-than-expected change signals that we could see further interest rate increases from the FOMC. This is also why following the news release, the DXY climbed steadily from the 104.65 price level up...
GO SHORT GBPUSD Entry: 1.19430 Stop loss: 1.20570 Take profit: 1.15700 Reason: he GBP has also benefitted from a hawkish repricing of BoE rate hike expectations thatwas driven by the paring back of recession risks for the UK economy. The strong pick-up in the UK PMI surveys for February signalled that growth likely continuesto hold up better than expected at the...
Pretty decent RR here, based on great level of support, and DXY slow down. Even though everything about USD is positive (consistent green fundamental data, likely avoiding recession, hawkish FOMC attitude to interest rates), it's still not firing - this tells me it's already over-priced. I'm going long on GOLD, Buy 1810, SL 1788, TP 1946, RR 1:6.3
As we see the DXY continue to push up thanks to the fundamentals and potent9ial for a 0.5% rate hike, I'm expecting this pair to continue to push up. Key fundamentals out of Japan this week with inflation data on Thursday, there's also a speech on Friday by incoming Governor Ueda, not expecting policy comment, but if we get some it will likely have an impact on...
I suspect we are seeing a large scale reversal in the dollar, which will be further confirmed if CPI favors renewed hawkishness surpassing current consensus estimates (consensus was already shaken by NFP yesterday, and would be further shocked if CPI allows Powell to keep hiking for longer than expected, or even do larger hikes as well). The BOJ governor change is...
Looking at equity markets as a conflict between Value stocks and Growth stocks has become a reflex for many market commentators. ‘Growth is beating Value’ (or the other way around) is always a good headline. Value stocks are defined as basically cheap stocks and it is, therefore, possible in any index, to point to the Value side of that index. Growth stocks are...
We have a wicks to fill. One is at 1.06174. The Other wick is the Previous weekly candle low at 1.06120. We have momentum so most likely we will touch these prices at some point. We are trading 2 hours before news here. Ultimate target on week on 1.055. Additionally, I think FOMC will help provide a catalyst to take us lower. We may pullback hard first, for...
The Australian dollar has rebounded on Thursday, after a 2-day slide in which AUD/USD lost 100 points. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6830, up 0.37%. On Wednesday, the Australian dollar fell to 0.6794, its lowest level since Jan. 6. Australia's private capital expenditure jumped 2.2% q/q in Q4 2022, rebounding from 0.6% in Q3 and above the estimate of...
We have learned that almost all US Federal Reserve officials backed a 25-basis-points rate hike at the last FOMC meeting held on January 31 to February 1. Only a few officials favored a larger 50-basis-points hike at the meeting or said they "could have supported" it. Even so, many more dovish sentences were spoken in the latest meeting than compared to the...
Good Morning everyone, As we expect the dollar is gaining some power during this weeks, and the previous meetings is being bullish for the usd currencies. In that matter we expect the same to happen today at 01:00pm. this trade is expected 1/1 risk reward. That's my personal opinion for today
Inflation has not been eliminated yet in the US, the Economy is good which indicates the interest rates hikes will not stop yet. which we want to confirm today with Fomc. in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 104 zone, once we will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed. Trade safe, Joe.
Good afternoon gold gang! hope you're well. Wow, not much movement again today waiting for the FOMC minutes to come out. Gold price is hugging my middle level there perfectly tapping into it continuously. This normally happens before a news event and is usually quite a big move coming from it, so lets see!! I have my targets above and below .. we might even...
The main event for today is actually the release of the FOMC minutes tonight at 19:00 GMT – for which we have gold in focus. The rise of US yields and increased expectations of a 50bp March hike mean the minutes have become of greater importance. As traders had assumed a 25bp February hike was practically a given, it could come as a surprise if we learn that the...
It may have taken a few weeks, but markets are finally pricing in what we argued all along; a higher terminal rate and no cuts this year. If you cast your mind back to the Fed’s recent 25bp hike, it is fair to say the Fed were not impressed with the market’s original response. Fed fund futures not only lowered the terminal rate to 5% but even began pricing in...
Most of the FOMC focus is on the rate announcement and press conference, but I found the minutes actually make better pivots. It's especially clear on the weekly chart. I expect this one to be bear, but will roll with it either way. Which way do you see it?
Last Friday EURUSD reached 1,0611 and pullback from the level. The rise may continue to 1,0730, where we will be looking for sell opportunities again. An entry is made only after pullback from the zone. The target is test and breakout of the last week’s low. The scenario breaks down on moving above 1,0805.