Market has completed our former setup with upside retracement and forming of "222" Sell pattern on 1H chart (look for our previous idea on BTC).
Now, following this logic, we should get AB=CD drop on 4H chart right to our major support area around 4650. Potentially we could get "222" Buy as well.
Let's see what will happen...
Although our H&S pattern on daily chart is still valid, at least on paper, but the action that we see on 4H time frame increases chances of failure.
As you can see the daily right arm bottom takes the shape of smaller 4H H&S pattern. Normal price action suggests upside acceleration as soon as H&s has been formed.
But here we see opposite...
Morning guys, welcome back, we hope that you had a good Xmas and New Year's day time.
Mostly BTC supports our scenario with daily H&S pattern and now we turn to final stage - action to the target. Two entry opportunities have worked well. First was on the bottom of the right arm, second - on minor retracement, based on our hourly H&S pattern.
Now, as we have...
So, upstep is done - market shows upside bounce from our anticipated 3500 level, which is suggested by daily H&S shape. Now BTC has only one legal road - up.
Illegal reversal will mean H&S failure which suggests drop below the 3000$ Head level.
Now time has come for our "conservative" tactics, if you were scared a bit to buy right at the daily...
So, that's it. Price at the bottom of right arm of our H&S pattern. Potential target is 4500$ - AB=CD and strong daily K-resistance area.
Failure of H&S will lead to drop below the head, i .e. 3000$. Those of you, who tracks our analysis, probably knows that we have long-term uncompleted weekly 1800$ target and
treat this H&S only as a...
Everything stands according the plan. Market shows respect to our ~4000$ strong resistance area, which includes two Fib levels and intraday 1.618 AB=CD target that we've talked last week.
Since we're watching for H&S pattern on daily, we need to get the last part - right arm. As market has formed bearish reversal swing here, first upside pullback...
yesterday we've met some misundertsanding in comments so here we try to clarify this.
We wait for deep retracement to trade BTC long with some AB=CD shape. Most probable pattern that could provide it is H&S. So, we're waiting for the bottom of right arm.
But we do not trade BTC short now and do not call for this. In fact, we do not care where...
BTC has completed 1st stage of our short-term trading plan and tested 4000$ resistance area. Since this is first upside reversal swing after long dropping - retracement down should be deep.
As our yesterday AB=CD pattern is completed - BTC starts forming H&S pattern. It seems that right arm will take the shape of "222" Sell. Since our major...
Market shows good pace on upside action, but long-term bearish momentum is still here and sooner or later but it should become a reason for deep retracement (or even downside continuation),
Since we have strong resistance ahead - 4000-4100$ is combination of Fib levels and some harmonic targets. Thus, it could be used as potential upside target...
Our yesterday trading plan exceeds our most brave expectations as BTC jumped above our minor AB-CD targets. Existing of strong bearish long-term momentum and and 1.27 butterfly 4H chart
makes us think that we could get 1.27 reverse H&S pattern.
It means that as strong resistance on 4H chart will be hit we should get deep pullback, prefferably in...
On Friday our minor 3170 target has been hit - its intermediary one on the way to major 2900 point. This target is based on two butterflies - 4H 1.27 one and 1H 1.618 that you see on the chart.
Also AB=CD target has been completed. Now market is forming something that reminds H&S shape. It means that we could get at least AB-CD pullback to ~3320...
It seems that our suggestion was correct. Once we've identified triangle, it has been broken down. Breakout leg makes possible appearing of butterfly pattern which has the same ~2900 1.618 target as daily one.
on 1H chart we have minor butterfly pattern with 3170 minor target as well.
here is just fast add-on to our recent analysis. Daily chart is most representative right now as it shows pattern and potential drop to 2900 target.
Meantime, intraday chart also brings some clarity today as we could recognize clearer triangle/pennant pattern, which could be treated as continuation one.
Market shows very weak reaction on any bullish patterns that was forming on intraday charts. Current situation is not an exception.
This makes us to wait for 1.618 butterfly target on daily chart around 2900$. Reaction on 1.27 target was just minor harmonic swing.
Once trend stands bullish by MACD but price shows flat action - this makes us think...
We're still watching for extention of upside retracement and patterns that could trigger it. Since taking of bearish position is postponed on indefinite time, because we need to wait either when upside retracement will be over or for clear signs of BTC failure and downside action. Now we do not have anything of this kind.
Now we're investigating upside retracement on daily chart, which could happen by one of the three patterns - "222' Buy", Double Bottom or butterfly "Buy".
As '222" Buy already stands in place - we're watching of market reaction on it. Yesterday we've talked that upside action could start by H&S pattern, and indeed, market hit the neckline and
We continue to work with short-term retracement action on BTC. As our downside target has been perfectly hit yesterday - 4H AB-CD pattern and butterfly "Buy' on 1H, we've got perfect "222" Buy, which could lead to fargoing
consequences. First is, at least 30% upside action, but potentially we could get DRPO "Buy" pattern on daily chart and...
Our K-resistance area of 4250-4300$ that we've mentioned last week is working well. Market indeed has failed to break it on marche. Taking in consideration strong bearish momentum that still stands on the market,
our most conservative expectation is deep retracement to 3717 area and completion of AB=CD pattern, which should give us daily '222"...