Hello guys, Currently DXY is resting on a strong support area at 101.773. Just a quick recap. We had the advanced GDP news release which saw a 2.1% growth in 2022 despite challenges like recession fears and high prices. The job market remained strong and people were optimistic about the future. If the Core PCE Price Index m/m data release yields are better than...
The Australian dollar has extended its rally with solid gains on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7080, up 0.51%. RBA policy makers are no doubt having a bad day at the office, as Australia's inflation climbed sharply in the fourth quarter. CPI rose to 8.4%, up from 7.3% in Q3 and above the consensus of 7.7%. The hot inflation...
The Canadian dollar is unchanged on Friday, trading at 1.3466 in the European session. We could see some volatility in the North American session, as Canada releases retail sales. The markets are bracing for a downturn in retail sales for November, with a forecast of -0.5% m/m for the headline figure and -0.4% for the core rate. This follows a strong report in...
With the yield curve inverted, inflation slowing rapidly and global growth expectations revised downwards, long term treasury bonds are looking like an excellent allocation right now. A reversion to 2% on 30 Year yields over the next couple of years would produce double digit Annualized returns. Full story here: matthewiesulauro.substack.com
It has been a quiet day in the currency markets, and the Canadian dollar has followed suit. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3386, down 0.15%. Inflation in Canada slowed to 6.3% y/y in December, down from 6.8% a month earlier and matching the consensus. On monthly basis, the decline was noticeable at -0.6%, compared to 0.0% in November and...
The British pound is slightly higher on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2234, up 0.24%. The pound has enjoyed a solid week, with gains of 1.2%. US inflation continues to decline and slowed for a sixth straight month in December. Headline CPI fell to 6.5%, down from 7.1% and matching the estimate. The drop was driven by lower prices for gasoline as well as new and...
quarterly momo is bearish in spy, and equity to gdp ratio is at or near a vertex, or local minimum. if you look at the volume based oscillations there is mixed indication. if you anchor vwap at the breakout level jan 2014 you can see were sitting right on the top band exploring the idea of a monthly higher low. if that breaks things like equity/gdp, market...
The British pound is drifting for a third straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2161, down 0.09%. We could see stronger volatility from the pound before the weekend, with the release of the US inflation report and UK GDP on Friday, both of which are market movers. There is guarded optimism ahead of the US inflation report. Inflation is...
The British pound has bounced back on Wednesday and recorded sharp gains. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2055, up 0.74%. Ask any British consumer, and they'll tell you that food prices have been going through the roof. The BRC provided data in that regard, stating that food inflation hit a record 13.3% in December, up from 12.4% in November. The...
GBP/USD is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, the pound is trading at 1.2093, down 0.74%. There was an unexpected surprise from the UK CBI Realized Sales today. December sales volumes showed a strong rebound, rising 11 points. This easily beat the November reading of -19 and the consensus of -21. However, retailers expect the rebound to be...
In this rough draft of an idea, I naively try to figure out the effect of the immense money printing, and the "true" value of inflation. After BIS came out talking about the hidden debt, I began thinking about the "hidden" money. With such low money velocity, we cannot possibly feel the real effect of all that flood of money. I am amazed from this chart. Mainly...
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which winds up its policy meeting later today. Policy makers are expected to raise rates by 50 basis points at this final meeting of 2022, with an outside chance of a more aggressive 75 basis point hike. This year has set a record for tightening, but despite that, the Fed stills finds itself in an uphill battle to convince the...
Despite facing the unknown external shock of a war, the Eurozone economy’s growth has been resilient in the first three quarters of the year. Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q3, easing from a 0.8% increase in Q2 2022 aided by the rise in government spending alongside an improvement in inflation adjusted trade surplus...
The British pound has posted slight gains today. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2257, up 0.32%. After a rather uneventful week for the US dollar, next week could be marked by plenty of action, with a host of key releases on both sides of the pond. The BoE and Federal Reserve are expected to deliver 50 bp hikes, and we'll get a look at the latest...
The Australian dollar is showing limited movement for a second successive day. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6696, up 0.12%. Australia's economy underperformed in Q3, with a modest gain of 0.6% m/m. This was lower than the Q2 print of 0.9% and beneath the 0.7% consensus and also marked the weakest quarterly growth this year. Annualized GDP climbed...
The Japanese yen has been on an impressive streak but has dropped sharply on Monday. USD/JPY is trading at 135.83, up 1.13% on the day. The US dollar is showing some signs of life, courtesy of Friday's US employment report, which was stronger than expected. The economy created 263,000 jobs in November, slightly lower than the October reading of 284,000 but well...
We see Silver moving higher and continuing its recent uptrend from September lows just above $17 whilst it is above key support at around $21. However, we await key data releases such as the Q3 US GDP growth rate tomorrow and non-farm payrolls on Friday. This could indicate whether FED chair Powell will continue with aggressive rate hikes or increase market...
US markets are open for limited hours today, and investors are focussed on the World Cup and Black Friday rather than the US dollar. EUR/USD is trading quietly at 1.0392, down 0.18%. German data has not been spectacular this week, but nonetheless is moving in the right direction, as the German economy is in decent shape. Germany's GDP for Q3 was revised upwards...