Macro Monday 52
Vietnam – A Global Food Supply Giant & Diverse Manufacturer
According to a report by global wealth intelligence firm New World Wealth and investment, Vietnam is forecast to see a 125% increase in wealth over the next 10 years. This would be the largest expansion in wealth of any country in terms of GDP per capita and number of millionaires,...
Macro Monday 26
Global Index’s Breaking Out
As its Christmas Eve I wanted to do an early release for tomorrow and share something positive and Christmassy but at the same time share something of value, so here is a look at some of the major global ETF index’s and how promising they appear towards the end of 2023. A clear sector stands out.
Vanguard Total...
Huge beat on US jobs number sent the Euro tumbling in afternoon trading. It did start the week positive and was actually green in pre-market trading Monday, but that didn't last long and after it closed the day down 113 pips it spent the rest of the week trying to recover.
Tuesday put in an interesting looking low, constrained to a 45 pip range followed by a...
It ain't easy being DR CAPITALCOM:COPPER
Peaked in March 2022, only to crash -38% & bottomed-out in July 2022.
Since then it has fluctuated between Contraction (will Global Economy collapse?) versus Expansion (will Global Economy recover?), while also contending with outlook of China's Economy, yeesh lol.
Copper's price action has also been compressing,...
While the SNB hasn't really signals any policy change for short-medium term, considering that global inflation has started to cool down, there is quite a chance that they cannot keep hiking rate at some point. Meanwhile, the technical side of it shows a potential buying condition that hard to miss.
As you might see on the chart, based on those conditions, I...
Check out my most recent publishing(s) referring to this particular exchange rate in the "Related Ideas" section below if your interested in the USDCNY.
I took a closer look at my in-depth analysis over the weekend and felt as though it needed some adjustments (additions*) + further complication..
but its for the better.. hear me out.
Ive been spending the...
If you bought this pair when I first featured it here, you have made money. If you were leveraged 50:1 - which - often is the case in forex, you have likely returned more (% returned) in this trade than what you can expect in three years of investing in a vanilla benchmark-tracking 401K.
I remain long USDCNH and will continue to cover it for the foreseeable...
I have been waiting for the moment where my confidence was high enough to say the top was in for most of 2021. The relentless grind upwards has kept providing moments that "could be the one", but all have been quickly bounced before any real technical damage could be done. Hence, we went almost a year from the last 5% SPX correction until now. This will be...
EUR is the most inflationary currency, whereas NZD is the most deflationary.
Based on Micro Bias, Global Macro Bias, and other factors... My strognerst number was never assigned to this pair....
Consequently, I will maintain my short position in the EURNZD, and based on current information, we might continue in this manner for another week...
Someone among...
This weekend's market is expected to be relatively quiet.
They will not produce large effects or move, and they will most likely not affect all pairings.
We should proceed with caution, but the New Zealand dollar and the United States dollar have a very high possibility of gaining ground because of recent performance and statistics that I have obtained.
After...
I will simply follow up on the previous two weeks with fresh and stronger knowledge, which I will get at the Microeconomic Information/Fundamental Analysis stage of the process.
Things are rather straightforward; I don't need to say much since figures speak for themselves, and you can see my previous notion, which I have already shared...
If you see the same...
As you can see on the chart for 60 years, the US dollar has been downtrending, but since 2014 the index has come out from under the downtrend line, during the same time the US Federal Reserve interest rate fell from 18% to zero (and now they promise to raise it) What is it, a false breakdown or really from by raising the interest rate Mr. Dollar will start to rise...
China, Europe, Asia, Africa could see a -10% to -22% collapse over the next 60+ days if consumers shift assets away from risks associated with the current COVID & debt/credit issues plaguing foreign markets. China, in particular, could be on the cusp of a "Great Recession". This could drive other foreign markets deeper into trouble in early 2022.
My opinion is...
Kospi a canary in global equity market.
Ascending wedge break
Below 233 EMA
Below Ichimoku Cloud
Countertrend rally bear flag.
The next move should be impluse
Macro currency view and Elliot wave pattern.
What currently could be a long-term impulse move or a corrective with a 5 wave internal structure. Wave 3 is an extended not likely to pass my current target.
With recent news of South Korea and Hungary hiking rates (even before this news), I am starting to more seriously consider the possibility that the *rest of the world* could lead asset tapering initiatives, ahead of the US. This would allow for Emerging Markets to stabilize, amid the $Dollar-driven commodity boom, thereby setting the stage for the next several...
