HIMS – The Setup We Flagged Weeks Ago Just Triggered. Here's theHIMS – Up 10% Today. Base Breakout. World's Largest Consumer Health Platform. Stop $26.50.
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We flagged this setup weeks ago when it was coiling under $31. Today it broke out. Up 10% out of the base and I have a position on with risk down to $26.50 at the bottom of the 20 EMA.
The story keeps getting bigger every week.
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THREE THINGS STACKING RIGHT NOW
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First — the Eucalyptus acquisition just closed on June 2. Hims & Hers is now the world's largest consumer health platform. Operations across Australia, Canada, Germany, and four continents total. Hundreds of millions of potential customers in markets they weren't in six months ago. The international growth lane just opened up.
Second — eight new platform partners were just announced this week as Hims builds out its all-in-one health ecosystem. This is the pivot from a single-product telehealth app to a full consumer health platform that sells across every major health category. GLP-1, peptides, longevity, men's health, women's health — all under one roof with a distribution network most competitors can't match.
Third — the FDA peptide review is still the wildcard in the background. Canaccord reiterated Buy this week and pointed to regulatory clarity on compounded peptides as a potential major catalyst. Hims already owns a peptide manufacturing facility in California. If the FDA clears the path on compounded peptides, Hims is the most operationally ready company in the space to scale immediately.
And there's a quiet signal most traders missed — the former CFO of Netflix bought $1.17 million worth of HIMS shares at $24.24 just last month. Former Netflix CFO knows a platform scaling story when he sees one. That's not a token insider buy.
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THE SETUP
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This stock has been knocked down more times than I can count. Every time the market wrote it off it got back up. The base under $31 was weeks in the making — tight, controlled, institutional accumulation while retail sentiment was bearish. Today it released.
Up 10% out of the base on volume. That's how real breakouts start.
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TRADE PLAN
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Entry: In the breakout today
Stop: $26.50 — bottom of the 20 EMA
Pattern: Base breakout
Catalysts: Eucalyptus close, 8 new partners, FDA peptide review, JPMorgan Overweight $35 target
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THE RISK
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Amazon expanded its GLP-1 management program through One Medical and Ro introduced major price cuts to its weight-loss membership — competition is intensifying in the core business. The Eucalyptus integration adds execution risk. Market is extended and high-beta health names sell off hard in a broad pullback. Stop at $26.50 is the line. If it breaks, I'm out. 
Long
Can Science Build a $1 Trillion Moat?A Pharmaceutical Titan in Full Transformation
Eli Lilly and Company is undergoing one of the most consequential transformations in modern pharmaceutical history. No longer simply a drug manufacturer, the company has evolved into a high-tech industrial platform, one that fuses cutting-edge biological science with autonomous manufacturing systems and artificial intelligence. At the center of this revolution is tirzepatide, a first-in-class dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist marketed as Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity). This molecule has become the engine of Lilly's financial ascent, delivering 23.6% average weight loss in clinical trials and outperforming rival semaglutide by 47% in relative weight loss. In 2025, the company reported revenue of $65.2 billion, a performance that drove a 40% total shareholder return, and issued 2026 guidance of $80 to $83 billion, representing a projected year-over-year increase of 23% to 27%. With a market capitalization that recently crossed the $1 trillion threshold, Lilly's rise is not a speculative story; it is a structural, multi-domain rearchitecting of the global healthcare economy.
Manufacturing Moat and Geopolitical Realignment
To sustain its dominance, Lilly is constructing a manufacturing fortress that smaller competitors cannot replicate. The company has committed over $55 billion to 13 new production sites worldwide, including a $3 billion facility in Katwijk, Netherlands, featuring fully automated "dock-to-dock" systems, and a €400 million biopharmaceutical plant in Limerick, Ireland. On the horizon, its next-generation oral GLP-1 drug, orforglipron, could be priced as low as $149 per month, a move that would fundamentally reprice the entire obesity treatment category. Simultaneously, Lilly is navigating the geopolitical turbulence created by the BIOSECURE Act, which threatens to restrict partnerships with Chinese biotechnology suppliers by 2032. With Chinese firms representing 13% of global active pharmaceutical ingredient manufacturers, the company is actively reshoring production to allied nations, a costly but strategically vital shift. These capital-intensive decisions are not merely defensive; they are offensive moves designed to lock out rivals and create a decade-long supply chain advantage.
AI, Pipeline Innovation, and Patent Durability
Lilly's competitive edge extends deep into the future through its integration of artificial intelligence and a robust pipeline of next-generation molecules. A $1 billion partnership with NVIDIA has yielded AI-powered "factories" capable of analyzing complex protein structures, while a $2.75 billion collaboration with Insilico Medicine is compressing drug discovery timelines from years to months. The pipeline's crown jewel is retatrutide, a triple agonist targeting GIP, GLP-1, and glucagon receptors, which demonstrated 16.8% weight loss in just 40 weeks without a plateau, a signal of even greater potential. On the intellectual property front, tirzepatide is shielded by 23 separate U.S. patents, with an estimated generic launch for Zepbound not until 2039, providing over a decade of high-margin exclusivity. Policy shifts, including the CMMI BALANCE Model that caps Medicare out-of-pocket costs for GLP-1 drugs at $50 monthly starting in 2027, further expand the addressable population, turning weight-loss medications into affordable standards of care for millions.
Risks, Valuations, and Analyst Consensus
Despite its commanding position, Lilly is not without meaningful risks. Realized prices fell 7% in Q4 2025 even as volume surged 50%, signaling intensifying pressure from pharmacy benefit managers demanding larger rebates. Competitive threats are materializing from Structure Therapeutics, Roche, and AstraZeneca, particularly around the emerging "muscle preservation" standard expected to define the next generation of obesity trials in 2027. A 16% year-to-date share price decline in early 2026 has created what many analysts view as a compelling entry point: over 91% of covering analysts maintain a "Buy" rating, with an average price target near $1,223 per share, and a PEG ratio of 0.41 that suggests the stock remains undervalued relative to its growth trajectory. The lone dissenting voice, HSBC, which issued a "Reduce" rating with an $850 target, argues that consensus market size estimates above $150 billion may be too optimistic. Yet with revenue growth at 4x the S&P 500 average and 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $33.50 to $35.00, Eli Lilly remains, by most metrics, the highest-conviction large-cap opportunity in the global healthcare sector. 
Long
$HIMS Legal Overhang Gone. Buy the Dip!Here's the full TradingView idea:
📊 HIMS
Three months ago Hims and Hers had a $72.98 stock price, a booming GLP-1 weight loss business, and a growth trajectory that had the market pricing in a dominant telehealth future.
Then Novo Nordisk filed a patent infringement lawsuit over Hims' compounded semaglutide products, the FDA cracked down on compounders, and the stock collapsed 62% from its 52-week high.
The legal overhang became the single biggest weight on the stock. Investors did not know if the business model was viable. Analysts cut targets. The monthly chart printed a waterfall selloff straight into long-term Fibonacci support.
On March 9, 2026, that overhang disappeared entirely.
Hims and Hers announced a full strategic partnership with Novo Nordisk. Novo dropped its lawsuit without prejudice. In exchange, Hims stopped marketing compounded semaglutide and became an authorized distribution channel for branded Ozempic and Wegovy on its platform.
The company simultaneously announced it would become the largest global consumer health platform for access to FDA-approved GLP-1 medications. Trading volume on the day of the announcement hit 168.1 million shares, approximately 557% above the three-month average.
The stock surged 41% in a single session and has continued higher, up 66% on the week.
Here is the fundamental picture after the deal:
Hims and Hers is now a direct distribution partner for the two most prescribed weight loss drugs on the planet. The legal risk that had been suppressing the valuation is gone.
The regulatory uncertainty around compounded GLP-1s no longer threatens the core business model. Novo Nordisk revised its self-pay pricing structure as part of the deal, making branded GLP-1s more accessible through the Hims platform and expanding the addressable patient base significantly.
Leerink Partners called the deal both a surprise and an unambiguous positive, noting it removes what had been the biggest overhang on the stock.
Morgan Stanley said the deal could significantly reduce regulatory and legal risk tied to the weight loss business. Needham raised its price target to $30. Citi raised to $24. The stock is still trading at just 20 times forward earnings. It is still down 62% from its 52-week high of $72.98.
Now add the Iran war layer. The Iran conflict has driven a broad rotation out of growth and into defense, energy, and hard assets. Consumer health and telehealth names have been indiscriminately sold as part of that risk-off move.
But Hims and Hers is not a discretionary spending story. Weight loss is a chronic condition treatment. Mental health, hair loss, and sexual health subscriptions are recurring revenue businesses with high retention.
These are not luxury purchases that get cut when oil prices rise. The Iran war selloff created the entry into a stock that just had its biggest fundamental catalyst in its history.
The monthly chart is where this setup lives. After the parabolic move from $2.72 to $72.98, price has retraced all the way back into the long-term breakout base and is now sitting directly on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire bull move.
The blue SMA 20 on the monthly has acted as dynamic support through the entire 2024 to 2025 run. The current candle is printing a long lower wick at this level, a classic monthly demand signal.
🟢 Buy Zone ($16.43 area)
Price retraced into the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the prior breakout shelf from mid-2024. The monthly wick here signals institutional accumulation at a level that previously acted as major resistance before becoming support.
Stop: $3.88 below entry (23.615%) / $45,000 position
Qty: 1,288
Risk/Reward Ratio: 7.37
Target: +173.950% ($28.58 area / $86,829)
Key Levels:
🔑 Current Price: $25.88
🔑 Buy Zone: ~$16.43 area
🔑 52-Week Low: $2.72
🔑 52-Week High: $72.98
🔑 Needham Price Target: $30.00
🔑 Citi Price Target: $24.00
🔑 Forward P/E: 20x
🎯 Target: $45.01 (+173% / $86,829)
⚠️ Hard Stop: $3.88 below entry
The bears had one argument. It was the Novo Nordisk lawsuit. That argument no longer exists. What remains is a profitable telehealth platform with a subscription model, a new direct partnership with the world's leading GLP-1 manufacturer, a massive and growing addressable market in obesity treatment, and a stock that is still more than 60% below its recent high.
The legal overhang is gone. The monthly demand zone is here. The entry is mapped.
If you found this analysis valuable, hit the Follow button at the top of the page. Every idea in this Iran war series, oil, defense, reconstruction, crypto, chips, cyber, AI infrastructure, domestic manufacturing, flash storage, AI data centers, biodefense mRNA, and now consumer health telehealth, is being updated in real time as the conflict develops. You don't want to miss what's coming next. Long 
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Eli Lilly: The Trillion-Dollar Cure for Market Volatility?Eli Lilly has officially shattered the Silicon Valley ceiling, becoming the first healthcare company to achieve a $1 trillion market capitalization. While tech giants like Nvidia grapple with bubble concerns and doubts about AI monetization, Lilly has delivered tangible, recurring revenue through its dominance of GLP-1. This milestone is not merely a pharmaceutical victory; it represents a fundamental shift in market leadership from speculative tech to essential biopharma.
Macroeconomics: The Flight to Quality
The Federal Reserve’s pivot is fueling this ascent. New York Fed President John Williams signaled imminent rate cuts, raising December cut expectations to 70%. Lower rates disproportionately benefit capital-intensive sectors like pharma, which require massive upfront R&D and manufacturing spend. Investors, wary of tech volatility, are treating Lilly as a "defensive growth" asset—a rare hybrid offering the stability of healthcare with the explosive growth of software.
Science & Innovation: The Dual-Agonist Revolution
Lilly’s valuation rests on **tirzepatide** (branded as Mounjaro and Zepbound). Unlike previous drugs that target a single hormone, tirzepatide mimics both GIP and GLP-1, delivering superior efficacy in weight loss and blood sugar control. This scientific leap has rendered competitors’ single-agonist drugs vulnerable. Furthermore, Lilly is already stress-testing its own dominance with **retatrutide**, a triple-agonist candidate showing even higher potency, effectively cannibalizing its own portfolio before rivals can catch up.
Business Models: Disrupting the Middlemen
Lilly is aggressively rewriting the pharmaceutical distribution playbook. The launch of **LillyDirect** bypasses traditional Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs). By partnering directly with Walmart to offer cash-pay options for Zepbound vials, Lilly captures margin previously lost to intermediaries. This Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) model exerts immense pressure on insurers to cover these drugs, leveraging patient demand as a battering ram against restrictive formularies.
Geostrategy: Manufacturing Sovereignty
Management recognizes that demand is useless without supply. Lilly has committed over $27 billion to manufacturing expansion, predominantly in the US and Europe (Ireland and Germany). This strategy reduces reliance on fragile Asian supply chains, insulating the company from US-China geopolitical friction. By onshoring active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) production, Lilly positions itself as a national security asset, aligning corporate growth with Western industrial policy.
Technology & Cyber: AI-Driven Discovery
Lilly is moving beyond traditional wet labs. The company’s **TuneLab initiative** utilizes federated AI learning. This allows biotech partners to train models on Lilly’s proprietary data without exposing the underlying IP. Additionally, partnerships with Isomorphic Labs aim to accelerate small molecule discovery. This "tech-forward" approach reduces the years-long timeline of drug discovery, turning R&D into a computational problem rather than a biological guessing game.
Management & Leadership: The Ricks Doctrine
CEO David Ricks has executed a masterclass in capital allocation. While peers engaged in share buybacks, Ricks poured capital into manufacturing capacity ahead of approval. His leadership style is characterized by "preemptive scale"—building the factory before the drug is approved. This risk appetite allowed Lilly to meet the explosive demand for Zepbound faster than competitors, securing market share through sheer logistical brute force.
Patent Analysis: Building the Moat
Lilly is fiercely defending its IP territory. The company has launched legal offensives against compounding pharmacies attempting to sell unauthorized versions of tirzepatide. Simultaneously, they are layering patents on delivery mechanisms and combination therapies. The transition from auto-injectors to vials also serves a strategic patent function, complicating the regulatory pathway for future biosimilars.
Conclusion
Eli Lilly has successfully decoupled itself from the broader healthcare index. By combining Silicon Valley-style innovation with industrial-scale manufacturing, it has created a $1 trillion moat. As the Fed eases policy, Lilly stands ready to deploy cheap capital to further widen the gap against its rivals. Long 
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) AnalysisHims & Hers Health NYSE:HIMS is a leading telehealth platform delivering personalized care in sexual health, hair loss, dermatology, mental health, and weight loss.
Growth Drivers:
Weight Loss Service Momentum ⚡
Q1 2025 launch of a GLP-1 prescription program with coaching & diagnostics has unlocked a major new revenue stream.
Strong adoption is fueling accelerated growth.
Subscriber & Revenue Growth 📊
Q2 2025 subscribers surged 31–38% YoY to 2.4M.
Monthly revenue per subscriber jumped 30% to $74, reflecting deeper engagement.
Operational Leverage 🤖
AI-driven care and pharmacy automation are enhancing scalability and margins.
Partnership expansions are broadening reach and improving efficiency.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We remain bullish above $54.00–$55.00, supported by high-margin recurring revenue and strong subscriber momentum.
Upside Potential: Target: $110.00–$115.00, driven by continued adoption of GLP-1 programs, tech-enabled scalability, and strategic partnerships.
📢 HIMS—Scaling Digital Healthcare with AI, Innovation, and Strong Subscriber Economics. #HIMS #Telehealth #GLP1 #DigitalHealth #GrowthStocks Long 
Can Lilly Redefine Weight Loss Market Leadership?Eli Lilly is rapidly emerging as a dominant force in the burgeoning weight loss drug market, presenting a significant challenge to incumbent leader Novo Nordisk. Lilly has demonstrated remarkable commercial success despite its key therapy, Zepbound (tirzepatide), entering the market well after Novo Nordisk's Wegovy (semaglutide). Zepbound's substantial revenue in 2024 underscores its rapid adoption and strong competitive standing, leading market analysts to project Eli Lilly's obesity drug sales will surpass Novo Nordisk's within the next few years. This swift ascent highlights the impact of a highly effective product in a market with immense unmet demand.
The success of Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, the active ingredient in both Zepbound and the diabetes treatment Mounjaro, stems from its dual mechanism targeting GLP-1 and GIP receptors, offering potentially enhanced clinical benefits. The company's market position was further solidified by a recent U.S. federal court ruling that upheld the FDA's decision to remove tirzepatide from the drug shortage list. This legal victory effectively halts compounding pharmacies from producing unauthorized, cheaper versions of Zepbound and Mounjaro, thereby protecting Lilly's market exclusivity and ensuring the integrity of the supply chain for the approved product.
Looking ahead, Eli Lilly's pipeline includes the promising oral GLP-1 receptor agonist, orforglipron. Positive Phase 3 trial results indicate its potential as a convenient, non-injectable alternative with comparable efficacy to existing therapies. As a small molecule, orforglipron offers potential advantages in manufacturing scalability and cost, which could significantly expand access globally if approved. Eli Lilly is actively increasing its manufacturing capacity to meet anticipated demand for its incretin therapies, positioning itself to capitalize on the vast and growing global market for weight management solutions. Long 
Finally a stock I like...this one is a real dealFinally, an investment idea! (after how much doom and gloom?) — Novo Nordisk.
You will all be familiar with Ozempic, the Danish company’s flagship product and the reason so many celebrities, influencers, b listers and regular schmegular Americans are suddenly skinny. I ignored the stock for most of ‘23/24, because it was so expensive. I am still a value investor (for my sins) and I just didn’t see a lot of value there — it was priced in.
Imagine my surprise as I was thinking about “megatrends” (vom) for the year ahead — AI, data, 'zempy. Novo stock has fallen 37.80% in the last six months. And you know what that means…that’s a real deal!
Why is it a real deal? (Don’t you like booze stocks Eden?)
Ozempic is not going away. At this point it is synonymous with weight loss as “Uber” is to ridesharing or Google is to search.
Note this data per Barclays, from recently issued rx data in the US — Ozempic script issuance has grown +8.4%, while WeGovy slightly trails it at 7.4% — both owned by Novo. While Eli Lilly also makes a GLP, Novo is still the leader.
Strong guidance from management on sales — +16% - 24% — roughly implies revenue of $48bn for ‘25 and $57bn for ‘26…that’s a compounder.
America and much of the western world has an obesity problem. There is a clear incentive for governments to underwrite the drug because obesity has a clear social + fiscal cost on society — per UoA, the fiscal cost of obesity in NZ is at least $2bn¹.
People have an incentive to use Ozempic, because they are vain.
This is a nice hedge against the booze stocks I like so much. Benefit from both sides of the trade — buy booze at low teens multiples; buy Novo and benefit from lower drinking rates as there’s several studies that imply ‘Zempy reduces drinking.
I don’t want Ozempic, because I like to live the good life.
This does not mean the vast majority of people won’t use Ozempic. At the moment, one in eight Americans have used a GLP. That’s +334mn people. 40% of Americans are obsese.
There’s a Lollapalooza effect happening here — a bunch of incentives — vain people, governments wanting less obese people, the various side health benefits of GLPs, etc. I like when a lot of incentives are aligned because you’re relying on psychology rather than projecting numbers on an excel spreadsheet.
Novo has sold off recently due to a trial of its CagriSema drug missing expectations. Eyes on the prize, though — current GLPs, which still have plenty of market to saturate.
Eli Lilly has traded up in recent times, while Novo has traded down. The two tend to trade in lockstep so the disconnect is an opportunity to buy the world’s leading GLP maker at a good price.
Eli Lilly is the closest comp, but it trades at a 38x fwd multiple, while Novo trades at 20x — i.e. an almost 50% multiple discount (see chart). I like that too…
Note analyst recs on chart also…
This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox.
Short 
