With tech indices gaining much-needed momentum last week, lower bond yields helped push Palantir past a key level in price action. Since December of 2020, PLTR had been trending in a downward channel- with lower lows and lower highs being established. On June 2nd, the price seemed to have broken out of that channel and may indicate a reversal in price action if...
I see many people say on internet that the market is highly volatile and very hard to predict the trend.
In my opinion, institutional investors (even including Fed) have different thoughts about where the economy is heading due to uncertainty.
So, I want to guess what they are probably thinking so that it may give us some clues why the market is acting in this...
One of the hot topics in the market recently has been the rising bond yields. The US Government Bond 10 year yield traded this week inside a Zone that has formerly been (from 2011 to 2019) a long-term Support level as clearly illustrated on the chart.
With the RSI on the 1W time-frame also entering its Resistance Zone (holding since 1996) and the MACD approaching...
Yields are still currently low based on the long-term regression trend.
What does it imply for RMB bonds if we expect a rate increase in the mid-term (independently of exchange rate movements)?
- Avoid long-duration RMB government bonds,
- Prefer short duration or floating-rate ones.
The US Government Bond 3 Month Yield Is falling ahead of any official rate cut by Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve Board. This effectively tells us the market is pricing in a rate cut being announced at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 30 2019.
This is more significant than most traders realise. It has become common place on Wall Street...
Looking at the chart we can see the 3 month yield inverted with the 10 year yield a few weeks ago so recession could be anywhere from 12-18 months out. The question is, where do we stabilize in this current down swing? Things will probably go sideways for a while before we break support and rates dive to zero. The catalyst will be nGDP figures and Bank of Canada policy.
With US rates rising significantly in the past couple of months - how should a trader play this
Being structurally short $TLT offers significant upside with a Put Butterfly Spread
We have outlined trade which can be accessed on profile however a summary is provided
2 Month Put Skew is 3.62 standard Deviations above its 1 year mean
2 Month Volatility is 1.58...
Let me warn you now, this is not a fundamental or technical analysis based trade. This is a speculation on my behalf based on a simple theory.
As the US Federal Reserve continues to rise interest rates up to 3x this year, is it time that a true bear market in fixed income has come to fruition? Are the "safe" government bonds becoming one of the worst asset...