This pair has been a headache over the past few days. However, I think I have finally figured what this pair has been up to: - The market underestimated the possibility of a rate hike in June until the last FOMC Meeting Minutes on May 18th. This explains the lack of real sustainable rallies since the one that took place on the 3rd of May. - The FED has stated...
The recent devaluation of the USD is serving purpose to make way for future rate hikes by the FED without causing EM volatility and issue with China's currency peg. As the USD devalues it also pushes up Oil prices which provides relief for entities with Oil based junk bond exposure (Aka US banks). I see the devaluation as a short / medium term trend as a relief...
VVIX represents the volatility of the VIX indicator, more precisely its the 30 day expectation of the VIX index which is the expectation of implied volatility in the SPX in 30 days time. Read more on this on CBOE's website. VVIX is mean reverting in nature, as it is as index and non-tradable it represents this mean reversion without market expectation building...
The Cable was killed last week as markets rattled on China fears and US Non Farm Payrolls trumped expectations. Pair finished the week below a descending triangle bottom marked by the 2015 lows and looks set to continue lower over the coming weeks. Initial target is the 1.236 extension of April - June 2015 around 1.4240, this extension coincides with the 2011 lows...
The Aussie had a rough start to the year, declining more than 4.8% against the US Dollar. This was the largest weekly decline in % terms since September 2011, when the pair declined over 6%. We are currently descending towards a triangle bottom marked by the 2015 lows - a break lower would initially target the 68 handle, marked by the 1.236 ext at .6794. Expect...
USDCAD is on the warparth: December's close above the 61.8 Fib opens up the 78.6 Fib just below 1.4660. Pair has displayed incredible strength compared to other USD majors and shows no sign of stopping - momentum appears to have actually picked up in the first week of 2016. Expect a test of 1.4660 by the end of the month. The unlikely alternative, a reversal below...
We know that this hike is basically a sure thing. But I expect to still see some price action that we can take advantage of
View : Bullish Pattern : Head and Shoulder (inverted) Stop level: 1044 Entry level : Closing above 1076 Target : 1105 and higher
So the time is coming, this is the last chance for the FED to demonstrate that the US economy is strong enough to withhold an interest rate hike and continue to show improvements. there are many political and idealogical factors behind this decision and this is a worry to investors and speculators that think this rate hike should not go ahead and that is only...
I BELIEVE THE FED RATE HIKE WILL GIVE USD STRENGTH THERFORE IVE SET UP TP'S WHERE I BELIEVE PRICE WILL COME TOO I WONT BE PLACING STOP LOSSES ON MY TRADES BUT IF YOU WANT TO MAYBE HERES SOME ZONES FOR YOU TO PUT STOPLOSSES IN I WILL ENTER NOW AND 30 MINUTES BEFORE THE EVENT ! (7PM GMT TIME ZONE) PLEASE TRADE WITH CAUTION AS NEWS TRADING IS VERY RISK AND CAN...
Technical Analysis: Technicals are on the chart, the Fibonacci Retracement, S/R Levels and Measures of Trend. The pair is trading below the 200 Day MA and the Long Term Pivot at 1.56600. Typically, short positions are sought with this in mind. If today's daily candle close is bearish, then the candlestick formation becomes an Evening Star at 52400...
With the Fed talking about raising rates, we don't have much room to go if we stick with EWP. Watch the fed keep rates as they are and we get the USD to drop. Wonder if that will set the stage for a rate hike after that?
From a technical stand we look like taking another leg higher on the Dollar as you can see from my chart here. We also have more and more talk about a Fed rate hike before the end of the year which even if it doesn't happen can cause a rally in to that news with the excitement it will create.
IRX, the 13-Week Treasury Bill yield has spiked above its relevant highs of 0.05 after the recent FOMC announcement, which hinted of a potential review of the Fed's Target Range for the Federal Funds Rate (now at 0-0.25%) This spike in prices indicates that at the moment the expectations for the rate range hike are present, as IRX is closely correlated to Federal...
It has been a very strong down trend since July 2014, but Uncertainty of FED rate hike and dairy price rose since 18th AUG auction. Traders are taking advantage of strong KIWI and weaker DOLLAR till next RBNZ announcement. Happy Trading; RinaP
On a larger time frame the USDCAD is a Long Trade. This is because of divergent monetary expectations with regard to the BoC and the Fed with the latter having recently cut rates for the CAD and a rate hike being priced in for the USD. This is a technical short off the 1.300 Handle that confluences with the 261.8 Fib extension of the Bearish corrective wave from...
Update 1: SL was a little too tight. In reality SHort is still in play. SLs can't be moved on TradingView. Update 2: TP was hit at 121.423 Technical Factors: I like the Tweezer Tops on H4. The pair is currently trading below the 200,100 and 50 SMA. They are now dyniamic levels of Resistance. H1 has a number of rejection candlesticks off 122.900...