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History of the U.S. told by SPX I wanted to take some time to recount you the tale of the U.S., from the roaring 20s until today. But I wanted to tell you this tell from the perspective of the S&P 500. And so after horrendous hours of research, I think I am ready to tell you this tale, and hopefully stay true to the S&Ps view of things. So here it goes! The Roaring 20s It all started in the 20s. The ROARING 20s. The roaring 20s were marked by stark improvements in social, political and economic modernization. The industrial revolution took off in the US and this created jobs, opportunities and, more importantly, disposable income for families across the US. This was the first time in US history where more families lived in cities than on farms, and thus marked our beginnings of an industrialized century. This was also marked by a lot of social innovation, such as night clubs (well, Speakeasies really) and general outings of people to events, theatres, etc. The Great Depression The roaring 20s came to a grinding halt in the 1930s with the onset of the great depression. The great depression was a complex result of an over-inflated stock market, changes to governmental policies, bank failures and a general over-inflation of company and share prices. Recovery Interlude Between 1932 and 1936, the US began a slow recovery from the depression. However, the US was thrown back into a recession in 1936, with the stock market seeing a 316% increase over 1676 days. This was abruptly halted at the end of 1936, beginning of 1937 when the US experienced yet another recession, that lasted until 1939. However, by 1939, the real GDP in the US was well above its pre-depression levels and, economically, the US had recovered from the depression. Word War 2 After the 1936 US recession, September of 1939 marked the commencement of World War 2 for the US. This lasted until September of 1945. While, for the most part, it looks like the US stock market stagnated through most of the war, interestingly the DOW increased 10% on the first day of trading after Hitler invaded Poland in 1939. Following the attack on Pearl Harbour, the market fell around 2.9% but regained those losses in one month. All in all, from the start of WWII to the end, the market saw an increase of 50%, so not really terrible and not really stagnation! The Start of the Never Ending Bull Run While there was an initial rally and correction following the termination of WW2, this period is traditionally marked as the start of the decades long bull run that we continue to be in today. There was a “baby dip” in June of 1950, on the commencement of the Korean War, where the S&P fell roughly 10%. But this was quickly bought back up and continued to run up: The Correction of 1953: After the first few years of the commencement of the decade long bull run, the market experienced its, arguably, first minor “correction” that wasn’t the result of any major catastrophes, just simply a cumulative effect of various small things. From Jan 1953 till about September of 1953, the S&P fell roughly 15%, bringing it back into its expected time series range for the time: This was the result of such things as: a) Rising inflation that lead to the Federal Reserving hiking interest rates (sound familiar?) b) Economic adjustment growing pains: Shifting from wartime to peacetime economics causes some volatility and adjustments at the societal and market level. c) Corporate earnings: With the result of war ending, some corporations which profited on the war efforts, started to fall short on earnings. This contributed to lack-luster earnings at the time. d) Over-inflated valuations: I mean, has anything changed? All this dip buying lead to over-valuation in stocks. Back on Track, 1950s style: After September 1953, the bottom was in and the S&P climbed up to approximately 119% over the course of 1065 days. This is one of the most dramatic examples of economic expansion. Economic expansion marked the most part of the 1950s, with declining unemployment, inflation that was more under control as a result of the interest rate hikes in the early 1950s, and increasing disposable income by households. In addition to this, there was great advancements in technology, with computers and processors being implemented in corporate and government contexts, and companies like IBM continually making advancements in this industry. Various Other Corrections: Throughout the 1950s up until 1969, there were various corrections, all resulting from the general same uncertainties and concerns, i.e. Inflation, employment, Federal Reserve and other governmental policies and geopolitical conflict. Its interesting that the same concerns that plagued the market in the 50s, 60s and 70s are still the ones affecting us today. The “Lost Decade” The Lost Decade started around the beginning of the 1970s, after a sustained bear market in 1969 (which lead to just over a 35% decline in the US stock market) and lasting till the start of 1980. It was called the lost decade because the US stock market spent a decade in stagnation. The result of this was mainly due to high inflation (when you hear people say stagflation, it generally is referencing a similar situation to this). This lead to a whole load of other problems such as: a) Increasing interest rates to combat inflation b) Increasing Conflict during the Cold War. c) Negative real returns (investors were not seeing any returns and overally negative returns on their investments over the course of a decade!), this lead to a lack of confidence and thus, in some cases, exoduses from the market. Along Came the 80s Then came the 80s, complete with leg warmers, aerobic classes, health consciousness, “the Millennial children” and massive technological advancements. At the start of the 80s, the market rallied about 50% in roughly 273 days: More Uncertainty and Pandemics Despite the strong start of the 80s, this was soon to be halted at the start of 1981. Nineteen-eighty-one was the onset of another correction. By 1981, the federal reserve had not let up. The US people were continually bombarded by persistently high interest rates. Additionally, the US economy was already in a recession at the beginning of 1981. There was also ongoing concerns around this time with the HIV pandemic; however, this isn’t theorized to have been a major influencing factor in this correction as the general attitude of Government and institutions was apathy in this regard (as, by this time, it was known to only be a concern for Haitian immigrants, IV drug users and gay men *eye roll*). It wasn’t until 1984, when this presented more of a public concern once contaminated blood supplies lead to a massive epidemic in the US and Canada. But, post 1981, as far s the market was concerned, smooth sailing, with the S&P climbing almost 200% in 1827 days (or approximately 5 years), marking an, on average, 40% a year increase. The Flash Crash of 1987 (AKA, Black Monday): October 19th, 1987 was marked by a sudden and severe decline in stock prices. The losses sustained on this crash were estimated at 1.71 trillion US dollars, as the market fell more than 20% in a single day. This was termed "Black Monday" (not to be confused with the awesome song Blue Monday by New Order.). The photo of the papers in the air really got me. I had to laugh because I can relate. On really bad days I have been known to throw things in the air and be like "I'm done. I'M DONE! The cause of this was thought to be the introduction of algorithmic trading model behaviour which then triggered mass investor panic, though, a tumble of this degree is likely to be multifaceted and never truly fully understood. Various tech stocks during Black Monday, IBM fell over 20%, AMD over 30%, MSFT over 29% and AAPL over around 29%. This was short lived however, and from then on was marked by the ever so famous dotcom bubble. The Dotcom Bubble: After black Monday, which also brought the S&P back into its anticipated time series range, the S&P return to normal and stable growth, reflecting the general economic conditions at the time. However, this was accelerated at the start of 1995 with the advent and rapid uptake of the world wide web. From the start of 1995 till about March of 2000, the S&P saw exponential growth, rising approximately 250% over 1885 days or 5 years (average return of 50% a year). This was marked by rapid technological advancements, euphoria and speculation and an excessive use of IPOs (despite most of them lacking profitability). While Euphoria and speculation sustained the market for an admirably long time, it came crashing down in the early 2000s when the lack of profitability of these IPO tech companies came to light (I am looking at you pets.com). However, in 2000, as these enterprises slowly began to liquidate and go defunct, the market, too, made a dramatic correction of 50%, back to its expected range: This lasted a total of 944 days, or about 2 years. The Housing Bubble And as the pendulum swings, we transition from one bubble to the next. Immediately following the dotcom correction, we then entered the housing bubble of the YTK era, where the market had a steady rise of over 100% in a span of 1826, or 5 years: The housing bubble wasn’t solely to credit for this growth, as the US had also declared war on Iraq. As we saw from the events of WW2, war tends to be looked at positively by the market (*another eye roll*). This does economically make sense though, war = business and business = profits. For war to happen, we need industries to produce. If we look at LMT (a huge military and defence sector) during the period of 2003 until 2008, it outpaced the S&P by almost 100%!! And RTX (a huge supplier of US defence) outpaced both LMT and the S&P, growing over 200% in this time: But unfortunately this, too, had to end. And we all know how it ended. The 2008 Crash I won’t dwell on this, it’s the most stated, studied and discussed event in market history, so there really is no need to dwell. But to summarize, the increase in subprime mortgage lending lead to increasing defaults. Increasing defaults on banks that, themselves, were over-leveraged, lead to bank closures, which lead to a whole domino effect with the end result being an over 55% decline in the US stock market over 518 days, or roughly 2 years. From there, we have since resumed the centuries long bull market and haven’t looked back. The brief COVID-19 Crash in 2020 actually led to a fairly decent correction back to the anticipated range of the S&P (a regression to the mean), but this was short lived: Despite tumbling over 35% in a matter of days, this was simply bought right back up and climbed 123% in a matter of 701 days: The results of this were likely attributed to the use of quantitative easing and the federal government monetary stimulus policies creating more money to inject into the market. The 2022 Bear Market: And finally, the 2022 bear market. I was reluctant to title it as such because some operate on the assumption that the bear market is still a thing, others operate on the assumption that it ended in 2023. If we look at the S&P currently, this is where we stand: If we are back in bull market territory and continue up (despite being outside of the time series mean), the 2022 bear market will be among the first bear markets in SPX history to not have undergone a regression to the mean (from a quadratic standpoint). But let’s look at it from a log-linear standpoint: The bear market of 2022 failed to re-test the mean. So for us to continue up towards the 2 standard deviation mark on the log-linear scale, it will mark a historic event really, a bear market that accomplished, well, nothing haha. Concluding remarks: And that, my friends, is the history, AND FUTURE, of the US, as told by the S&P. I hope you took something away from this, but importantly, my purpose of sharing this history with you is so you can see how, regardless of the time, the market is always concerned about the same things. That is: Interest rates, Inflation, Geopolitics and economic policies, War; and Corporate earnings. Its as true as time, nothing else matters to the market than the numbers. Perhaps its sad, perhaps its realistic, perhaps its reality, but it truly seems to be the only thing that has mattered historically and probably the key thing you should take away from this. Another final note, is that all of our corrections have lead to a "regression to the mean", both on the loglinear scale and on the quadratic scale. So it is interesting to see that we have not "regressed to the mean" with our 2022 bear market. Anyway, thank you for reading this lengthy post! Leave your comments, questions and critiques below. Safe trades everyone!
SP:SPX
by Steversteves
16
$25,000 Is The Price To HOLD: New Video Up!In a bull market, this blue horizontal line represents the lowest closing price between the point after all 6 MA's moved below the point of control and the point where all 6 MA's were no longer below the point of control. This pattern has happened 3 other times in bitcoins history (2011, 2012, 2020, and now in 2023) but has not happened every cycle. Nevertheless, when this price line is established, the price has never again closed below the line. Will we brake the pattern this cycle? Or will the pattern continue. What are your thoughts?
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TheCryptoWeatherChannel
The History of the Stock Market: Path of Orwellian ControlThe History of Modern Humanity is flawed. A lie is a better word. Our history starts with the S&P being formed in 1870. We then have the Invention of the Telephone and the lightbulb a few years later... (What a Coincidence) We see the impossible to construct Worlds Fairs Buildings of 1883 knocked down and our history rewritten. The Market has been turned into a weapon. In fact it has always been a weapon. "New inventions every few years when the time is right" to keep the market on its feet and the people under control.
SP:SPXShort
by MichaelBsul
Statistically looking at BTC history. Much love!Hey everyone, We are all going through some unfortunate times with plenty to talk about. That being said, I hope everyone is safe and enjoying themselves. Needless to say, I've noticed a specific trend. When I started to look at the weekly chart, I zoomed out in an attempt to validate my current trade. When I did that, I ended up going through a rabbit hole full of data. I flirted with taking a look at the dumpiest places ever, almost like my search for every apartment in LA. Needless to say, I saw two statistics that coincide with one another. If you take a look at the monthly chart, there are two statistics that stand out the most - January 12 '15, and December 10 '18. At those infliction points, we were completely oversold. It took approximately 1,428 days to go into the oversold department starting Jan 12 '15. If we use the same calculation, things seem to start processing into existence, starting from December 10 '18. Fast forward to today, we can see that another 1,428 days land on Nov 7 '22. I believe that the bear market will end and that point. No one times the market. Take a break and hug the people you love. Happy trading.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoArom
History :Tradingview, Look first / Then leap.TradingView has become a top platform in the quick-paced world of financial trading, offering traders and investors all over the world a robust community and a set of sophisticated tools. TradingView has made great leaps from its modest origins to its current position as a major player in the sector, hitting impressive milestones and overcoming obstacles along the way. The Early Days of TradingView TradingView was founded in 2011 by Stan Bokov, Denis Globa, and Constantin Ivanov. The founders previously created MultiCharts, a desktop software for professional traders. They wanted to create a web-based version of MultiCharts that would be accessible to anyone with an internet connection. They also wanted to add social features that would enable users to interact with each other and learn from each other’s trading strategies. In the above image we can see one of our wizards. TimWest in the early days when he had only 196 followers. Where as now he has a massive following of 56,000 and counting. In September 2011, TradingView released its beta version, which quickly garnered popularity among traders and investors. TradingView participated in the Chicago TechStars accelerator program in 2013 and won seed funding from a number of investors. In addition, the business increased the size of its staff and enhanced the platform's markets and capabilities. In 2018, TradingView completed a $37 million Series B round led by Insight Partners, a prominent venture capital firm that specializes in fintech. The funding helped TradingView scale its operations and expand its global reach. In 2019, TradingView acquired TradeIt, a platform that enables users to link their brokerage accounts and trade from any app or website. The acquisition enhanced TradingView’s trading functionality and user experience. Key Partnerships and Acquisitions TradingView has partnered with several leading brokers and exchanges to provide its users with direct access to trading and data. Some of these partners include OANDA, FXCM, CQG, TradeStation, Binance, and many more. Achievements and Milestones Since its beginning, TradingView has experienced phenomenal development and success. More than 180 countries use the platform each month, with more than 50 million active users. It is one of the top 130 websites worldwide. It has also received numerous accolades and awards. TradingView has also launched several innovative products and features that have improved its platform and service. Some of these include: Streams : A product that allows users to watch live market analysis, ideas, and charts in real-time along with others. Timelines : A feature that maps the history of public companies to their share price. Pine Script : A programming language that enables users to create custom indicators and strategies on TradingView. Paper Trading: A feature that allows users to practice trading with virtual money without risking real funds. Wizard Program "An initiative that celebrates the traders & investors who consistently share high-quality content including written ideas" TradingView has come a long way since its inception, and currently stands at a valuation of 3 billion USD, transforming the way traders approach the financial markets. Through its powerful charting tools, technical analysis capabilities, and an active community of millions of users, the platform continues to empower individuals to make informed trading decisions. TradingView has established itself as a major force in the market thanks to significant alliances, a long list of successes, and a dedication to user-centric design. As the platform develops and changes to reflect the shifting
FX:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
4
Trading Through Time: From Stocks to CryptocurrenciesOnce upon a time, within the bustling boulevards of Amsterdam amid the 17th century, a progressive thought was born. Dealers assembled in coffeehouses and marketplaces, trading offers of the Dutch East India Company. This was the birth of stock exchanging as we know it nowadays. Word of this modern frame of venture spread like rapidly spreading fire, and before long stock markets started to rise in other European cities. London, Paris, and other budgetary centers built up their possess trades, where people seem purchase and offer offers in different companies. These stock markets given a centralized stage for exchanging, enabling investors to take an interest within the development of businesses and share in their benefits. As time went on, stock trades kept on advance. Within the bustling lanes of Modern York City, the famous Unused York Stock Trade (NYSE) was established in 1792. It rapidly got to be a image of America's financial control and a center for dealers from around the world. Companies looked for to be recorded on the NYSE, because it advertised expanded perceivability and get to to capital. With the coming of the computerized age, the world of stock exchanging experienced a significant change. Conventional open objection frameworks were supplanted by electronic trading stages. Exchanges that once depended on yells and hand signals might presently be executed at lightning speed with the tap of a button. This democratized stock exchanging, permitting people to exchange from the consolation of their homes through online brokerages. In parallel to these advancements, a modern frame of money risen from the profundities of the web. In 2009, an puzzling figure or bunch known as Satoshi Nakamoto presented Bitcoin, the world's to begin with cryptocurrency. Based on progressive blockchain innovation, Bitcoin pointed to make a decentralized advanced money free from the control of central banks. Bitcoin's beginning checked the starting of the cryptocurrency transformation. Its unique properties, counting security, immutability, and namelessness, pulled in tech-savvy people and early adopters. As the esteem of Bitcoin taken off, individuals begun to realize the potential of cryptocurrencies past a simple advanced money. Propelled by Bitcoin's victory, other cryptocurrencies started to grow like wildflowers in a computerized garden. Ethereum, Swell, Litecoin, and endless others entered the scene, each advertising special highlights and utilize cases. The world of cryptocurrency exchanging took off, with specialized trades giving stages for buying, offering, and exchanging these advanced resources. To keep pace with the advancing scene, innovative headways played a imperative part. Calculations and high-frequency exchanging calculations revolutionized the speed and effectiveness of stock exchanging, whereas decentralized trades and shrewd contracts brought robotization and believe to the domain of cryptocurrency exchanging. The development of stock exchanging and cryptocurrencies has not been without its challenges. Advertise instability, administrative concerns, and security dangers have postured deterrents along the way. Be that as it may, the charm of potential benefits and the crave to take an interest within the worldwide economy proceed to drive people and educate to lock in in these markets. Nowadays, stock exchanging and cryptocurrency exchanging have ended up fundamentally parts of the worldwide financial ecosystem. They offer opportunities for speculation, riches creation, and budgetary consideration. As innovation proceeds to progress and modern advancements develop, the world of exchanging stands balanced for assist change, interfacing people, businesses, and economies in ways incredible within the early days of bargaining and stock trades. And in this way, the story of exchanging in stocks and cryptocurrencies proceeds to unfurl, a story of advancement, theory, and the interest of financial thriving in a quickly changing world. Thank you for reading my masterpiece haha, please consider following me or boosting this post for motivation to make more content like this :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by LuminoAlgo
History: 17th Century to 21st Century: Retail Investors.Retail trading is the practice of individual investors using their own funds and accounts to purchase and sell financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and derivatives. Retail traders are frequently referred to as DIY investors or self-directed investors. They are different from institutional traders, who work for major institutions like banks, hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds and execute trades on their behalf. The development of stock markets in the 17th and 18th centuries can be linked to the history of retail trading. In Amsterdam, the first stock exchange opened its doors in 1602, where Dutch East India Company shares were traded. At first, the market was only open to wealthy merchants and nobles since they had access to brokers and agents who served as middlemen between buyers and sellers. However, more people from various socioeconomic groups and backgrounds started to participate in the trading activity as the market expanded and became more accessible. Actual ledger from the first public IPO, The VOC charter, the organization's founding document from March 20, 1602, had made mention of the IPO. Article 10 said that "all the inhabitants of these lands may purchase shares in this Company." There was no minimum or maximum investment amount; subscribers could choose their own amount. Posters announcing the IPO would be placed up, according to the article that followed. The South Sea Bubble in 1720, when a speculative frenzy over the shares of the South Sea Company drew thousands of investors from all walks of life, was one of the earliest instances of retail trading. Many people purchased the shares in the hopes of becoming rich by taking out loans or selling their belongings. However, the company's failure to keep its promises caused the share price to crash, and the bubble to burst. Many small-scale retailers lost their savings and filed for bankruptcy. The Wall Street Crash of 1929, which signaled the end of the Roaring Twenties and the start of the Great Depression, is another significant incident in the history of retail trading. When investors recognized the stock market was inflated and unsustainable, a wave of panic selling rushed through the New York Stock Exchange, setting off the crash. Many retail investors who had used borrowed funds to buy stocks on margin were unable to fulfill margin calls and were forced to liquidate their investments at a loss. Millions of people worldwide were impacted by the crash, which destroyed billions of dollars' worth of wealth. The environment of retail trading has changed as a result of technological and regulatory advancement in the 20th and 21st centuries. Retail traders now have more affordable and convenient ways to enter the markets and carry out their trades thanks to the development of electronic trading platforms, online brokers, discount brokers, and robo-advisors. The number of alternatives and techniques available to individual traders has increased with the advent of new financial instruments including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), options, futures, contracts for difference (CFDs), and cryptocurrencies. To safeguard retail traders from fraud, manipulation, and abuse by market participants, laws and regulations like the Securities Act of 1933, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Investment Company Act of 1940, the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, and the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 were passed. Some of the most influential figures in retail trading history include: - Jesse Livermore: Known as the "Great Bear of Wall Street" and the "Boy Plunger," Livermore was a renowned trader who amassed and forfeited a number of fortunes over his career. He was renowned for his insightful reading of market psychology and trends as well as his audacious bets against the market. He participated in both the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Panic of 1907, making millions by shorting stocks during each event. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, a famous trading book he also penned, is still read by many traders today. -The "father of value investing," Benjamin Graham : , was a pioneer in fundamental analysis and security selection. Based on an analysis of an undervalued stock's intrinsic value, earnings potential, and margin of safety, he devised a methodology. In addition, he coached a number of great investors, including Warren Buffett, who is recognized as one of his most well-known pupils. He also taught at Columbia Business School. - George Soros: One of the most successful hedge fund managers and currency speculators in history. Soros is known as "the man who broke the Bank of England." His prediction that the British pound would have to devalue or leave the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in 1992 is what made him most famous. From this trade, he allegedly generated over $1 billion in profit while also sparking a financial crisis in Britain. - Peter Lynch: Considered to be one of the best mutual fund managers of all time, Lynch oversaw the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990, with an average annual return of 29%. He adhered to the straightforward maxim, "Invest in what you know," which meant that he sought out businesses that he was familiar with and that had a promising future. A number of his best-selling books on investing, including "One Up on Wall Street" and "Beating the Street," were also written by him. - Kathy Lien: Lien, a former chief strategist at FXCM and BK Asset Management, is regarded as one of the world's foremost authorities on currency trading. She frequently contributes commentary to media sites like Reuters, CNBC, and Bloomberg. She has authored a number of books on forex trading, including "Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market" and "The Little Book of Currency Trading". Any more. In closing, Retail trading has evolved from a privilege reserved for the wealthy to a widely accessible activity for individuals from all walks of life. From the early days of stock markets to the modern era of electronic trading platforms, technology and regulation have played a pivotal role in shaping the landscape of retail trading. Influential figures like Jesse Livermore, Benjamin Graham, George Soros, Peter Lynch, and Kathy Lien have left their mark on the industry, each with their unique approaches and contributions. While retail trading presents opportunities for individuals to grow their wealth, it is essential to recognize the risks involved. The lessons learned from past episodes, such as the South Sea Bubble and the Wall Street Crash, remind us of the importance of informed decision-making and prudent investing. As we look towards the future, it is likely that the landscape of retail trading will continue to evolve, driven by advancements in technology, regulatory developments, and emerging financial instruments. However, the core principles of risk management, knowledge, and adaptability will remain crucial for retail traders to navigate the ever-changing markets successfully. In the related ideas you will see my post about the early days of TradingView and also the history of Japanese candlesticks
FX:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
3
History: A Brief History Of Candlesticks Introduction: An important tool in financial analysis, the candlestick chart has a long, illustrious history that dates back several centuries. Candlestick charts, which have their roots in Japan, have developed into a popular way to visualize price changes and market patterns. Lets explore the intriguing history of candlestick charts, with special attention paid to their development, importance, and ongoing relevance in contemporary finance. Origins in Japan: Candlestick charts have their origins in Japan, specifically the Edo era in the 18th century. This novel approach to charting price changes is credited to a Japanese rice dealer by the name of Munehisa Homma. The "God of Markets," Homma, used candlestick charts to study and anticipate changes in the price of rice. His ideas and methods were recorded in a book titled "Sakata Rules," which served as the basis for this distinctive graphic display of market data. Munehisa Homma below Candlestick Chart Components: Individual "candles," each of which represents a distinct time period (such as a day, week, or month) in the market, make up the basic building blocks of a candlestick chart. The open, high, low, and close prices are the four main elements that each candle is made up of. The upper and lower wicks or shadows of the candle indicate the peak and low prices that were experienced during the specified time period, while the body of the candle symbolizes the price range between open and close. Popularization and Spread: Candlestick charts were mostly exclusive to Japan up until the 19th century, when a British trader by the name of Charles Dow worked to bring them to the attention of the West. During his tour to Japan, Dow, the co-founder of Dow Jones & Company and architect of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, learned about candlestick charts. He translated Homma's findings and added candlestick analysis to his own technical analysis techniques after seeing their potential. Charles Dow below Further Development and Modern Application: In terms of pattern recognition and interpretation, candlestick charts have improved and expanded over time. Steve Nison, an American trader who popularized candlestick analysis on Western financial markets, deserves most of the credit for this development. Nison carefully researched and built upon Munehisa Homma's studies, adding new candlestick patterns and improving the way they were interpreted. His 1991 publication of "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques," which is now considered a classic, popularized candlestick charts among Western investors. Steve Nison below Today, traders, investors, and technical analysts utilize candlestick charts extensively across a variety of financial markets, including stocks, commodities, and currency. The visual depiction of price patterns and trends aids in spotting potential trend reversals, continuations, and market emotion, offering insightful information for making decisions. Conclusion: The development of candlestick charts is proof positive of the value of visual aids in financial analysis. Candlestick charts, which have its roots in Japan from the 18th century, have developed into a widely used and essential instrument in the world of trading and investment. These charts have been improved and adjusted for contemporary markets thanks to the work of pioneers like Munehisa Homma, Charles Dow, and Steve Nison, giving traders a thorough perspective of price movements and insightful knowledge about market dynamics. Candlestick charts are expected to keep guiding traders and assisting them in making educated judgments in the complex world of finance as time goes on.
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
19
S&P 500: Roaring Twenties 2.0 Bullish Harmonic FractalIn the lead up to the 1920s, the US Federal Reserve significantly increased its balance sheet by almost nine times, starting from 700 Million Dollars in December 1916 to 6.6 Billion Dollars by January 1920. This move was presumably to fund the US's entry into the First World War, which led to an increased demand for US government debt globally and loose lending conditions domestically, and low rates thereby encouraging a round of inflation in the US. However, after the war ended, the Fed stopped increasing the balance sheet, and between 1920 and 1922, they began to reduce it from the already elevated $6.6 billion to $4.8 billion, almost a 30% cut in just two years. This action successfully controlled inflation but did not eliminate it completely, yet the dollar gained significant buying power, resulting in a somewhat disinflationary period. As a response to this, the Fed maintained the balance sheet within a tight range around $4.8 billion for a decade, neither raising nor lowering it much but the federal reserve did continue to significantly lower the interest rates; During this time, equities rallied. While the 1920s were a period of economic growth and prosperity, there were warning signs of overheating towards the end of the decade. Investors were becoming overly speculative, leading to a surge in stock and real estate prices, while lending standards declined and consumer spending continued to rise rapidly. To counteract these inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve implemented policies to tighten credit conditions; They doubled interest rates and also raised reserve requirements for banks, which reduced the amount of money available for lending. In essence this would kickstart The Great Depression which could have instead been a Simple Recession if only the fed had acted sooner as it wasn't their intention to crush the market but rather they just wanted to cool the market down a bit to contain inflation. Years deep into the Great depression, the Federal Reserve realized they had gone too far. So, to fix this, they would begin to raise the balance sheet again while also cutting rates drastically in an effort to relieve pressure from the economy and promote new opportunities for economic growth, which then led to a new expansionary cycle. With that all being said, it would appear that the Fed is doing now what it was doing back then. Over the last decade, they raised the balance sheet by 900% and lowered interest rates by over 95%. Only over the last year, they have begun to reduce the balance sheet by about 10% while raising rates by over 1500%. If we are to go off of the Harmonic Fractals on the chart, then we are likely nearing a point in time where the Fed will begin to loosen rate policy and bring the balance sheet back to all-time highs. This would align with the S&P reaching a 2.618 - 4.00 Retraces as the Fed attempts to keep policy as loose as possible in the hopes that inflation won't come back to bite them. But once we reach harmonic targets, we will likely see inflation return in a great way, which would then force the Fed to induce another Great Depression in the next several years rather they want to or not. Technical Argument: ABCD BAMM, after breaking a long accumulation range and entering a long term expansionary cycle, we are now in the later phases of said cycle while showing heavy amounts of MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence and harmonically have room to go up significantly higher before it ultimately reaches D and comes to an end.
TVC:SPXLong
by RizeSenpai
2
Learn the Long History of Forex! 💶The history of the foreign exchange market (forex) dates back centuries, with evidence of currency exchange dating back to ancient civilizations. Here is a brief overview of the ancient history of forex: • Ancient Mesopotamia: The Mesopotamians, who lived in present-day Iraq, are believed to have been the first civilization to use a form of currency. They used clay tablets to record transactions of goods and services, and it is believed that they also engaged in foreign exchange transactions. • Ancient Egypt: The ancient Egyptians used a bartering system to trade goods and services, but they also used a form of currency in the form of metal rings. Foreign exchange transactions likely occurred between ancient Egyptian traders and merchants from other civilizations. • Ancient China: The Chinese began using metal coins as a form of currency as early as the 7th century BC. They also engaged in foreign exchange transactions with merchants from other civilizations, such as the Greeks and Romans. • Ancient Greece: The ancient Greeks used a bartering system to trade goods and services, but they also minted coins made of precious metals. Foreign exchange transactions likely occurred between ancient Greek traders and merchants from other civilizations. • Ancient Rome: The ancient Romans minted coins made of precious metals, which were used as a form of currency. They also engaged in foreign exchange transactions with merchants from other civilizations. 💴It's worth noting that these ancient foreign exchange transactions were likely not as frequent and organized as they are today, and were conducted primarily through bartering or physical money exchange. The invention of paper money and the rise of banks in the Middle Ages led to the development of more organized foreign exchange markets. 💵And Here is the overview of modern history of forex: • The modern foreign exchange market began to take shape in the 1970s, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, which had pegged the value of currencies to the price of gold. • Prior to the 1970s, currency trading was primarily conducted by governments and large institutions, but with the emergence of floating exchange rates, the market became more accessible to smaller investors and traders. • In the 1980s, electronic trading began to take hold, with the introduction of new technologies such as the Reuters Dealing 2000-2 system, which allowed traders to conduct transactions electronically. This led to a significant increase in the size and liquidity of the forex market. • The 1990s saw the continued growth of the forex market, with the introduction of new technologies such as the internet, which made it possible for individuals to trade forex online. • In the 2000s, the forex market saw a surge in popularity as a growing number of retail traders and investors entered the market. The introduction of online trading platforms and the ability to trade on margin further increased the market's accessibility. 💰Today, the forex market is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world, with a daily turnover of over $6 trillion. It's accessible to a wide range of participants, from large banks and institutional investors to small retail traders. The forex market operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, allowing traders to participate at any time. ❤️Please, support our work with like & comment!❤️ What do you want to learn in the next post?
TVC:GOLDEducation
by UnitedSignals
5
History doesn’t repeat, but it does often rhyme!So far I’d say we’re leaning more towards repeating. Coming into the local resistance around the same time as the Shanghai upgrade. Will that be the catalyst to slow this rally down? Sending ETH back down to confirm the June 2022 lows as support, and play out exactly like the bear market of 2019? If so, it will be about the same time from the local top to the next Bitcoin halving 11 to 12months. Shockingly similar if you ask me and makes total sense. Perfect price action. To accumulate into the always bullish for all of crypto, the BTC halving. Good luck everyone and be careful!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by tbyrnes8844
4
On this day, 13 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto updated the BTC logo🎯 Today marks the 13th anniversary of an iconic moment in the history of Bitcoin. It was on this day, 13 years ago, that the creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, updated the Bitcoin logo by embedding the symbol '₿' within a gold coin. This logo has since become synonymous with the world's first cryptocurrency and has become an iconic symbol of the digital currency revolution. 🎯 The logo update not only marked a milestone in the development of Bitcoin, but it also cemented the currency's status as a legitimate form of currency. The use of the gold coin design was a nod to the currency's potential as a store of value, while the '₿' symbol within it represented the currency's digital nature. 🎯 Today, we can still appreciate the elegance and simplicity of the Bitcoin logo. The logo has become an iconic symbol of the cryptocurrency movement and is recognized around the world. It has become a visual representation of the power of blockchain technology and the potential of decentralized finance. 🎯 As we look back on this momentous occasion, we are reminded of the incredible journey that Bitcoin has taken since its inception. From a white paper to a global phenomenon, Bitcoin has come a long way in just over a decade. Today, it continues to be a leading force in the cryptocurrency space, inspiring new innovations and driving forward the adoption of blockchain technology. 🎯In conclusion, the Bitcoin logo update of 13 years ago was a defining moment in the history of cryptocurrency. The simplicity and elegance of the logo have made it an iconic symbol of the digital currency revolution. As we look ahead to the future, we can be confident that Bitcoin will continue to lead the way in transforming the world of finance. Happy 13th anniversary, #Bitcoin! Let's continue to drive innovation and adoption in the cryptocurrency space. #cryptocurrencies #blockchaintechnology
by Crypto2AF
14
THE HISTORY OF FOREXHello everyone! Today I want to dive into the history of the Forex market. Knowing history is useful, because sometimes history repeats itself. The one who knows history will not make the mistakes of the past. The beginning of the story With the advent of markets, the question arose how to pay for the goods. In ancient times, the first way was barter. People exchanged some goods for others. This method developed and at some point salt and spices became popular means of exchange. In the 6th century, people realized that they needed to come up with something universal, so the first gold coins came to replace spices as payment. Gold coins differed from spices and other trading methods in important features: portability, durability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply and acceptability. The Gold Standard For a long time, gold coins were used as payment. The problem was that they weighed a lot and it was extremely inconvenient to carry them in large quantities. So, in the 1800s, countries adopted the gold standard. The idea was that the government promised to redeem paper money if someone decided to exchange it for gold. The amount of gold is limited and its extraction costs money and time, in difficult times it has become difficult to get enough gold to print a new volume of paper money. During the First World War, countries had to suspend the gold standard, because more money was needed to wage war, and right now. The Bretton Woods system After the Second World War, representatives of the United States, Great Britain and France to create a new world order. The whole of Europe suffered from the war and only the United States was able to emerge victorious, because the dollar had only become stronger by that time. The adoption of the Bretton Woods Agreement was aimed at creating a regulated market with a currency peg. A regulated fixed exchange rate is an exchange rate policy in which a currency is fixed against another currency. All countries fixed their exchange rate to the dollar, and the dollar was pegged to gold, since after the Second World War, the SS owned the largest reserves of gold. In the end, the old gold problem loomed over the market again. More money was needed, and there wasn't enough gold for that. Therefore, in 1971, Richard M. Nixon put an end to the Bretton Woods system, which soon led to the free floating of the US dollar against other foreign currencies. The beginning of a free-floating system European countries were not happy with the dollar peg, so in 1972 an attempt was made to get rid of the dollar. The agreements created by the Europeans, like the Bretton Woods Agreement, collapsed in 1973 and all this led to the transition to a free-floating system. Plaza Accord In the 1980s, the dollar rose strongly, exporters did not like it. In the early 1980s, the dollar rose strongly against other major currencies. It was hard for exporters and the subsequent US balance of payments. The US dollar weighed on third world economies and led to factory closures. In 1985, a secret meeting was held between representatives of the largest economies, but information about the meeting leaked to the media, which forced the countries to make a statement encouraging the strengthening of non-dollar currencies. This event was called "Plaza Accord", after which the dollar began to fall sharply. EURO The Second World War broke up the countries of Europe, creating many economic problems for the region. Wanting to save the region, many treaties were concluded, but the most fruitful was the 1992 treaty called the Maastricht Treaty. The introduction of the euro has given European banks and businesses a clear benefit from eliminating currency risk in an ever-globalizing economy. Online trading In the 1990s, the world began to develop rapidly. What used to require more time and human resources was now being done faster and cheaper thanks to the Internet. Money began to flow quickly from hand to hand, between continents, volumes grew rapidly. The fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union made the world open, there was an opportunity to trade Asian currencies that were previously inaccessible to traders. Online trading has started to reach a new level. Liquidity has increased dramatically due to the congruence of markets, spreads have decreased due to the competition of online brokers and new technologies. The time has come when anyone could enter the forex market and try to make money. The volume of funds in the market grew at an incredible rate. The future of the Forex market The forex market is growing from year to year. Volumes are increasing. There are more and more opportunities. Trading is evolving, as is the currency, which has led to the creation of cryptocurrencies and the crypto market, the development of which is striking in its rapidity. Never in history has a person had such an opportunity to earn a lot of money sitting at home. But do not forget about the risks, study the market and trading methods and then you will be able to grab your piece of the big pie. Good luck! Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have an opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Education
by Lingrid
11
🟨 Bear Markets - History & AnalysisThe calculations use the S&P Dow Jones Indicies. "The past doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes" WHAT IS THIS IDEA It plots all Bear Markets from 1900 to present day and separating them with those who have coincided with Recessions and those who are independent of recessions Analyse the current Bear compared to previous precedents to determine the probability of the move of the general market HOW TO USE IT We can see that there is a clear correlations between the depth+length of the Bear market and the times we are in recession; We can see that IF there is no recession on the market than the current Bear is becoming quite mature (299 days vs 212 days average) and we can expect that we will not violate the current lows; If the economy is announced to have a technical recession, we will be likely go deeper and violate the lows (-31% vs 34.6%). LEGEND 🟢 Bear Markets without Recessions (avg. -25% Loss, 212 Days) 🔴 Bear Markets with Recessions (avg. -34.6% Loss, 353 Days) ⚫️ Current 2022 Bear Market (avg. -31.0% Loss, 299 Days)
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TintinTrading
5
🟩 Anticipating FED pause - BullishThe market is a forward discounting mechanism and looking back my stance is that the stock market are anticipating a pause in the FED stance. Hinted on Wednesday by FED Chairman Powell who said "smaller rates increases are likely ahead" as soon as December. If the market is anticipating a pause, THE GENERAL MARKET INDECIES are likely to push forward. This of course is different to the actual stocks pushing up. So my stance is Discipline until I get good enough traction. The real question is HOW MUCH HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED already?
SP:SPXLong
by TintinTrading
8
History Repeats Once More...?The markets are currently in flux. Trapped between what history shows and what the current macroeconomic environment suggests. Reading between the lines, and understanding what factors will ultimately shift prevailing sentiment will become increasingly difficult to decipher. Regardless, I will attempt to examine what led us here, where we are now, and what is to come. HISTORY...? Many economic theorists posit that the current macroeconomic environment indicates that we are currently in a market that seemingly aligns with behaviors observed in 1929, 2000, and 2008. Therefore, our current market may be operating in some grey area that holds qualities of a combination of these historic economic crises. Although many believe that we can use historical charts to predict the exact movement of the current market, I do not believe this to be true. Although there may be some truth to this belief, the mechanism behind the euphoric rise of our current economic conditions are relatively unprecedented. The scale and magnitude of stimulus injected into financial entities, consumers, and creditors through direct stimulus, loan originations, and low-interest rates have no historical equivalent. In theory, we have no accurate true historical equivalent to current market mechansisms . As individual investors at a retail level, the layman trader has no easy way of obtaining information that may offer insights into the true systemic risk of a financial system. The SEC EDGAR system does allow access to corporate financial statements, but these statements may not provide a full or clear picture during times of crisis www.sec.gov . Regardless of this, it is still what I use most often to analyze corporate balance sheets to determine current or impending threats to their debt, liquidity, and valuation. The unfortunate truth, however, is that we will most likely not know the severity or extent of any theoretical "rot" until it is already too late. So with this in mind, how does one navigate such a tumultuous economic landscape? As individuals, we often look for patterns and cues that are often repeated. This is what makes history such a useful tool in the field of economics. The flow of money, greed, and fear of loss are constants throughout history that boast an unwavering track record. These are innate to human behavior and rarely change with time. When we examine the flow of money (Who has it, how much of it, and what is it being used for), we can see that there is currently a glut of supply. Between 2020-2022 somewhere between $5-7 trillion dollars of stimulus flooded the markets . Therefore, it is clear that there is plenty of currency circulating. Once financial stimulus of any kind is injected into a system, it is then important to "follow the string" to see where it leads. After the initial stimulus injection, it became clear that the money led to banks, and can be seen in the FRED Economic Data chart fred.stlouisfed.org While this suggests a marked increase in consumer savings, it can also be misleading, as the stimulus checks were most commonly distributed directly into savings or checking accounts and immediately bolstered the rate. Predictably, the rate immediately fell as consumers cashed out the stimulus to spend. This cycle is then repeated with a spike during the second stimulus injection, and a subsequent fall immediately after. So then, the flow of money so far looks like this: US Treasury->Consumer banks->Consumer spending. Predictably, inflation immediately reared its head. Prices skyrocketed, as corporate metrics adjusted to this new prosperous system of "free cash". Student loan debt payments during this time were in deferment saving an additional ~$393/month (Average student loan monthly payment thecollegeinvestor.com) for consumers to spend on other necessities or purchases, and interest rates remained at near 0%. Although this "Epipen" to the heart of the US economy may have saved consumers from immediately defaulting on credit, the side effects of such an intervention have no reliable historical references to note. Now, as we approach the end of 2022, the global economy appears to finally be experiencing these inevitable side effects. The reservoir of liquidity provided to the US economy and global markets is constricting, and the well is running dry . Corporations have experienced the most ideal and prosperous economic scenario any Black-Scholes model could possibly iterate, and many CEOs are now likely grappling with the impossible question of, where do we go from here? . Global economies simply cannot afford another stimulus injection that matches the scale and volume seen in 2020, and with that comes the harrowing reality that the most prosperous period in generations is coming to an end. Future growth metrics will pale in comparison to those experienced during this time of euphoric intervention, and earnings can only inevitably diminish. Student loan repayments begin again at the beginning of 2023, sucking any last drop of excess capital consumers had left. This, I believe, may lead to a critical turning point where the reality of the end of prosperity is fully realized. Ultimately, if this thesis plays out, we may experience a period of rapid deflation where companies are forced to either lower prices or find other methods of keeping pace with plummeting consumer spending. Credit will constrict, Credit card defaults will skyrocket, and the US Treasury must suppress treasury yields via treasury buybacks, consumer incentives for holding US debt, or imposing significant taxes on real estate investing. All of this will happen exponentially quickly. Global events and crises will make it difficult for any officials to remain vigilant in any single aspect of the market to prevent a systematic collapse. This degradation in the division of attention among lawmakers in charge of keeping our systems functioning as intended will create the perfect medium by which any previously "undetected" economic instability can proliferate and reach critical mass. SUMMARY We are reaching a final "breaking point" in the US economy. The current system built to withstand financial turmoil has never been tested in an environment that has experienced such levels of financial stimulus paired with macroeconomic instability. This will result in a new "mutation" of financial instability that will prove to be significantly difficult to counteract. If a systematic collapse occurs when the government entities typically poised to intervene are experiencing significant turmoil themselves, they must find new ways of stemming the fallout. Although the mechanism by which the US Treasury funds itself creates a type of "perpetual loan" through its treasury issuances and yield payments, illiquidity in the treasury market may force emergency action to save itself. History doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but it often rhymes. And right now, history is about to become the greatest lyricist the world has ever seen.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by ProjectIcarus
4