History
Comparing today to Litecoin LTC chart from December 2013We may finally see how this breakout would have played out had the Mt.Gox hack not happened. This looks pretty similar to LTC's climb starting in November 2017 to present day. If we continue the same trend then the last candle would be about $200 today which is a major resistance for us today.
BTC TA COMPLETEHello goys, here is something I wanted to tell all of you about for a long time now. It's a complete, zoomed out technical analysis of this whole crash and the things and events before it.
First of all, all these drops and wedges can be called somehow, not all persons however posses such great abilities at naming them all, remember, this is zoomed out, if the events surrounding me allow me to deliver more of my highly valuable time into sharing my hard-gained knowledge with you I will definitely use a chart that is more zoomed in.
Okay, let's look at the beginning, here we can see Additivum grossum fundamentalum, not a smart batch of cash like plebs would say, be professional. That led us straight into something which those who have been granted the knowledge call Dolnisius's transition, there is 2 of them right there, one is polaroid, the other one is apananonvertical. Lots of people have been eliminated or terminated by these two unforgiving transitions of Dolnisius.
Those two transitions aren't just there for eliminating the weak from the game, you need to remember that, these two transitions of Dolnisius have actually caused a massive transnanoatomical macrohonimindivium transition, this event has created something not a single one of us can calculate nor visualize, but it's there and it has been of great honor to see something as huge as this unfold in front of my eyes.
Dolnisius according to the legends has calculated and visualized exactly when and how these transtitions occur, what is their depth, what are the exact events that occur before them and how to help triggering them, he was a real genius and the works which have been found after his tragic death will be forwarded to generations of young scholars and will forever lay deep in our minds.
Now back to the grand event those two transitions caused, it proceeded to create a really complicated part of this technical analysis, yes it's the Hemophagus's grundild triangle, this one is apantransvertical, a really rare one.
This kind is surrounded by many legends and prophecies, apparently first mentioned in the old scripts from the famous Alexandrian library, however, those scripts were never found nor has there been found any proof of their existence, only legends and tales of the folk have survived.
Now we're getting into the part where one of Gartley's quotients has been doing its thing, this one is pretty common, it's opuloid, we can see that it dragged us down right into the lowest levels of eternal doom, this was the day of many and many more pink wojacks, Gartley's quotients are not a kind thing and cause a lot of hassle especially to the weak and deluded, you need to stay strong during those.
It's because they set the ground floor, you need to be ready for some huge pump after one of these occurs.
Gartley was a young man who was able to calculate cryptographic equations, functional functions of addition or disintegration, logarithmic functions and nanographics in a matter of seconds only by his using his great mind.
He sadly died in horrible pains after finishing his last stages working on the quotients.
Discovering, calculating and visualizing the quotients was a great discovery not one of us will ever forget.
We're getting at the end of this TA and we're ending positively, Spitzerlung's additions are really profitable, especially when they are of this scale.
Spitzerlung's mother said that her son has never left his room, all he has been doing since his birth was calculating equations, watching anime and reading science books.
He was a real genius, one wonders how many more things he could've provided for the human race if he didn't create a virtual world full of anime girls, we all truly hope he is fine.
CONCLUSION: MOON IMMINENT
Now you have seen a little bit from the vast knowledge the chosen ones posses, you have also learned a bit about the history of some of the greatest people.
I hope you take something from this and will stay tuned for more TAs.
An idiot's guide to trading Bitcoin - Case study from 2017It's always easier to look back and see what should have been obvious at the time. This is a short case study of how one COULD have traded Bitcoin successfully from it's last epic run of 2017. This should be a precursor to what happens in 2018 and going forward. It isn't a 'method', but is an observation and an opinion that will guide my own trading going forward. A year in Bitcoin is like a decade in almost any other stock. This presents numerous insights.
We see that from late 2016 onward we had a series of higher highs / higher lows. If one simply applies a basic 14 period RSI oscillator to the chart and looks at price action, they would see that as long as Bitcoin was making higher highs and higher lows WITHOUT any significant divergence it would have been foolish to take profits / time the market / etc. The price retracements from where the RSI gets into overbought (sometimes significantly) territory simply weren't that large. Taking profits would certainly have led to feelings of accomplishment and $$$ but one would have missed out on even greater subsequent moves. It simply made more sense to be in the market, rebuying at times like July and September when BTC/USD dipped into oversold territory (while still making higher lows - although July is arguable). Note that there really isn't any divergence of mention between price and the oscillator during this time.
It isn't until we get to December that we start to see some extreme bearish divergence. Price careens upwards and pauses on 12-17. The oscillator makes a markedly lower low. While in hindsight it was probably impossible to time profit taking unless you were glued to your screen / phone, this was the first real time in the year long bull run to considering pausing and selling. The sharp move downwards over the next few days wipes away nearly half of the coin's value. Ouch!
Lessons:
Don't bother paying attention to oscillators in trending markets unless they are showing signs of divergence. Selling / timing the market will in all likelihood lead to regret / FOMO / emotional trading decisions.
If there are signs of divergence after an especially massive run, take profits immediately. Waiting could lead to massive hemorrhaging of profits.
As long as the crypto is making higher highs / higher lows feel free to rebuy in wherever it feels right to do so, especially when it gets into oversold territory.
Let's see what the rest of 2018 brings. I'll be sitting around enjoying life until there is some clear indicator of where the market is headed.
Note: this same analysis could apply to a number of other coins. I haven't checked.
ZCL/BTC looking like a bullish flag here!Hello traders!
The question is, if the history could repeat. some bullish signs are here so the bull run starts when the 4h closes above te upper channel line.
and u sould sell if the daily closess below 0.786 FIBB
Is Bitcoin going to every die - probably not. In this video, I review some evidence available to everybody. I spot some behaviour patterns of Bitcoin over the years.
The evidence to date is that it refuses to die - at each stage when people shouted "Crash!" or "Tulip!".
I'm not saying that Bitcoin will not die. That's none of my business as a trader. My business is to assess evidence, see patterns and decide on probabilities.
I'm inviting all to look at the same evidence. Are we all seeing the same thing? Are we seeing broadly the pattern of fall back followed by shocking recovery?
Hate to Say It: Bull Trap Til 12K ??I hate to say it, but without a big fundamental catalyst when it nears 12K, it could be a bull trap and then resumption of the bear market. Not only is the pattern very similar, but even the stochastic RSI is almost identical. I want it bullish too, but just sayin... be suspect of this rally until we clearly break 12K!
Momentum = Mass x VelocitySo as the story continues based on the past, we also look at momentum when we will see our bottom? The bottom has not come because we don't have enough mass and velocity. Now what do I mean by this???
Well in terms of Crypto:
Mass: Would be the amount of money participating
Velocity: A measurement of time
The amount of money going in, in the amount of time, does not convince me that we have seen the bottom.. Just saying and there is still one more bottom in all the previous graphs either from the DOTCOM BUBBLE, 2013-14 bubble, or any other bubble that I have seen.
Remember: "People never learn" , "History always repeats", "Don't hope that BTC will go up, that is using your emotions", "Set Alerts on your phone apps when BTC hits a certain point, high and low"
Thank you for those of you who have reached out to me, I really enjoy talking to real people who are just as excited about Crypto as I am.
Let The Trends Be With You.... Always.
Still saying the same thing for 2 months. Notice Me SenpaiThe trend continues...guess a lot of people didn't see what was right in front of them. Tried to heed the warning, but I know I helped a few save some money before the drops. Thank you for your support.
Always here to drop some quotes, facts or opinions to consider when making decisions.
The methods that traders use in the stock market work better then the same methods applied to crypto. There may not be a statistic out there to prove this, however if you notice around you a lot of youtubers, people here on trading view, and I all use some of the methods applied in traditional markets. Example: Elliot waves, Fibonacci, rsi readings, macd, etc.
BTC is however a little manipulated at the moment, so these theories and tactics become a lot more difficult and less predictable. This being the case, then the best thing I believe you should be doing in this situation is look into the past. There will be time for a lot of these methods, but for now you should be looking at previous graphs of BTC, DOTCOM, any examples of market crashes or corrections in the past. What is the reason for these crashes? How far do these crashes retrace? These examples are what bring me to my conclusions.
Remember BTC is around 20x - 30x faster than the stock market, The crash of DOTCOM looks almost identical to this BTC bubble crash.
I'm not an expert on the crypto market, but was Ash Ketchum an expert? Or was he a boy who wanted to be the very best?
May The Trends Be With You! -------- Please like, share, comment!!
- Furious
Bitcoin's Bull/Bear Streak HistoryOn the one-day chart, I counted how long each of Bitcoin's streaks were. How long were the up streaks and how long were the down streaks. Some subjective, but understandable, criteria was added. Lone doji's are not factored in. Doji's in between streaks are ignored because I think most traders would have the patience to hold for a day, especially if it meant more growth the next few days. For example, if a 4day bear trend growth was 1% / 1% / 2% / 3%, I wouldn't count the first two because that is not enough confirmation but if they were in between a stretch of growth, they would be considered because this chart is based on when to hold and when to sell. Duration is measured over ROI because traders care about how long they need to hold and how long they need to abstain.
If you observed any interesting trends out of this, please let me know in the comments. One I've observed is symmetry, perhaps having to do with phases of accumulation and distribution. How many days a market surges can give us an indication of how many days it corrects. If a market is forming a reversal, we can set our expectations within the ballpark range of how many days it took to top. Another observation I made is that streaks were longer than I thought they would be. I assumed that the market appeared to have a few bull days followed by a few bear days but this is only because my bias of checking the market more than once a day, and at different times. For example, if a market is bearish for two days in a row, it may start to be bullish on the first half of the 3rd day, but it goes down during the afternoon and night.
GOLD To Break up or down? History tells us down.Quick analysis for a friend. A daily close above the blue line would be bullish. A daily close below the red line would be bearish. History shows a similar pattern that went bearish. I wouldn't open a position until there is a close above one of those lines. If the RSI drops below 30 I wouldn't take a short position. If the RSI manages to work it's way down into the low 30s AND there is a daily close above 1375 that would be extremely bullish. Keep an eye on the DXY and geopolitical issues that could affect the dollar, as gold like many commodities have an inverse relationship to the DXY.
Analysis: last 20 years of fundamentalsI've been studying the markets since 2006. I always loved to collect data and trying to find patterns, fluxes, correlation, decorrelation, shifts in models...
Well, with some of the data I found available at TV, this is a quick analysis for the last 20 years (almost).
1) Notice interest rates, price of gold and commodities are NOT CORRELATED at all, there is no correlation and is based on empirical data. So everytime you hear/read anybody repeating this FALLACY, respond accordingly. Actually, one could easily say that RATE HIKES use to cause rise in commodities as clearly visible in 1-2 and since 5.
Also notice that until 3rd mark, monetary base was rising constantly but at a reasonable pace.
2) Rates starting to be lowered in reaction to the increasing delinquency in the housing market. Commodities rise.
Monetary base, steady growth but contained.
3) Rates to lowest values in history, markets going down, risk OFF scenario, commodities tanking, later to rise on monetary base skyrocketing (QE1).
4) QE2 halted, commodities started ranging.
5) QE3 printing started, commodities and gold DECREASING. What happened? Where has all that money gone? Rate stood negative (adjusting by inflation)
6) After rumors, the new price fix magically started a new trend for gold, commodities and apparently forced FED to start increasing rates to avoid inflation to rise (egg vs chicken, who's first?).
Apparently Shanghai Gold Exchange new benchmark denominated in yuan made it harder to manipulate gold and commodities prices overall. USA is now limited in abusive money printing and some variables start to adjust and normalize.
Questions:
Which data do you think brings some answers to question No 5 about where might have all that money gone to during the shift?
What could happen to stock and bonds markets once rates rise resulting in an inverted yield curve?
Where is gold price more likely to head after these variables adjust?
Could we be entering a new high commodity prices cycle? How much could it last?
What would happen to inflation?
What about the world's benchmark currency (USD)?
XRP: Downtrend startingRipple has been following the SMA 26 line for a while and should be expected to continue following it. You can tell that this is a strong support/resistance line because of the strong breakouts and breakdowns and how the price either stays above or below this line for noticeable periods of time. This pattern is also visible on the 1 and 2 hour chart.
What can bitcoin's past tell us about the future?The history of bitcoin gives a lot of information about what might happen in the future. Certain events trigger price movements and by analyzing them we might be better prepared judging events and news in the future. 2017 has been a great year for bitcoin and we've seen bitcoin reach great heights, but at the same time there has been lots of uncertainty.
This shows bitcoin rarely drops down out of thin air. There's usually news or an event triggering the drop or rise. Also when bitcoin is struggling to break resistance, a news event often helps to break resistance and reach new heights.
This shows 'Buy the rumor, sell the news' can definitely be profitable in this emotional market. I hope this reminds you to stay on top of whatever is happening in crypto world. Also remember that results achieved in the past give no guarantees for the future.
Will history repeat itself?There are a lot of patterns on the big chart that seem to repeat themselves a couple times. BTC is beyond the paradigm shift in trading. It's mind boggling to see how far it has come and just looking at that near straight line on the overall chart is quite a view. All it takes is one more negative news and tower will collapse.
BTC - Making history again? 10x TheorySo many calls for the 7-8k range being the top for BTC and a large correction coming imminently. Its very easy to read into the chart that we are very near completing Wave 5 in an Elliot Wave pattern, I myself see this clearly when I read the charts, it practically screams this out, its clear and perfect looking. I want to discuss the possibility that perhaps we are nearing the top of wave 3 in Elliot wave, due a downward correction of wave 4, but with a continued push higher on the final impulse wave to the 10k range. Sometimes was have to make the TA fit the reality of the situation more than the other way around. TA is not an exact process, rather a mix of science, art, math, and a little bit of luck at times.
Perhaps history does repeat itself. When you look back to October of 2013, BTCUSD was price was about 120 BTC/USD, by Nov 29th 2013 it peaked at 1126, a near 10x gain before ultimatley pulling back about 50% from the high and then entering a bear phase until October 2013. I am hoping we do not enter a 2 year bear market for BTCUSD. But like all things on the earth markets too are affected by gravity and when it feels like there is no way it will correct, it will.
My take is we will consolidate and build a base here in the low 7k range for a short period. BTC/USD will make a go at 8k and perhaps make it up to 8,000-8,500 range before ultimately failing and then falling to form the 4th wave down trend, falling to 6k -6,500 range. Then it will make a final bull run of this cycle to 10k area before the cycle correction is started. I am biased long for now waiting for a break above 7410 to add to long.
www.coinkind.com
LTCUSD AnalysisOver the past few days, approximately since September 15th, Litecoin has been holding steady within a price range of $45 & $57. Safe to say since the last dip that resulted in a low that hadn't been visited since mid-June is that LTC is in consolidation as a number of traders and investors exited early after the high volume peak on 15th September. Uncertainty within the market was expected after the BTC price correction that we recently went through but the relative strength of LTC has proven certain limits that the price will bottom out at and reverse.
We've been looking at steady support at the 0.786 retracement level and an acknowledged resistance at the 0.618 retracement level. Since the last dip that saw bears drive down price to $32 on the wick, LTC has attempted a slight uptrend giving me reason to acknowledge an ascending triangle. This at the current moment still needs solid validation as to whether the price will remain within the minor uptrend or if the price will revisit the 0.618 retracement level at $45 before reversal and breakout past the 0.618 reatracement level at $55. We'll be paying attention to where the candlesticks close today.
Based on the consolidation history prior to August 20th, its evident that the price levels during consolidation had a slight uptick on support as buyers confidence was renewed before the breakout. Our current consolidation pattern shows us two things:
1. The price will find support at the 0.786 level before reversal toward 0.618.
2. The price will conform to our ascending triangle and find resistance at 0.618 before revisiting 0.786 and potential breakout toward our previous $90 high.
Shorting the current price with a S.L of $55 and a T.P of $46 would be a solid move on the consolidation trend.
Going long with a S.L of $46 and a T.P of $56 would also be a solid move based on the current trend.
Whether LTC will break past the resistance at $57 remains to be seen. A break and candlestick close above the 0.618 retracement level would signal a potential breakout. Support at $45 looks strong and would take a lot of traders leaving LTC to break and close below the 0.786 level.
Crash! Boom! Bang! Bitcoin is gonna fall down hard. I think before we can see clouds, we might fly through the hells gate. Observing price movement and whole Bitcoin history we can notice that the price is almost always came back to a certain levels. Not an exception that the bottom can be a point of where departure was.
Please, like this idea if you agree, or comment if think differently
Good luck in trading!
EUR|USD : Short ( That shadow from the past, shall replace..)The shadow from the past, the thing that hasn't fulfill its path, shall replace on the next trend of 4/10-13/2017 Which is on the New Day, New weekend. Will it be an assassin or a Fighter ? idk, so stay tune :)
Thanks & playsafe:
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