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Gold projection up to 5800The fundamentals: First, the US economy is currently in a phase called Stagflation. This means the economy is growing very slowly (only 1.4 percent), but prices for everything are still going up (over 3 percent inflation). Gold is the classic "insurance policy" for this exact situation, so investors are flocking to it. Second, the old rule that a strong US Dollar kills Gold is breaking. Even though the Dollar is still strong, Gold prices are staying high. This shows that people are more worried about protecting their wealth than they are about what currency is doing. Third, there is a massive "floor" under the price because of buyers in China and India. Regular people there are buying physical gold at record rates, even paying extra fees just to own it. Every time the price of Gold drops a little, these buyers jump in and push it back up. Finally, Central Banks around the world are still buying huge amounts of Gold to move away from the US Dollar. They are essentially acting as a giant safety net for the market. Fundamentals Summary: Expect a "buy-the-dip" market. If Gold prices drop briefly, big buyers will likely step in quickly to push them back up. The general trend looks positive. The Chart: Price had a lot of trouble climbing above the Centerline. Finally it was cracked and the following Candle-Lows whre bought by the big Whales in the market. If todays Candle is closing positive, maybe even above the high of yeterday, I'm very positive that pirce will not fall again below the CL in the coming weeks. If you liked this post, feel free to give it a boost. Thanks for the support.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by HowToChart
How To Trade In Volatile Markets🔱 How To Trade In Volatile Markets 🔱 👉 1. Risk Management Begins with Position Sizing In quiet markets, traders get lazy. Positions grow larger. Stops get wider. You start thinking in profits instead of risk. Volatility punishes that behavior. When ranges expand, your first job is not to find better entries. It is to reduce your size. If the average daily range doubles, your position should not stay the same. Either your stop must shrink or your size must shrink. Usually the smarter choice is reducing size. I remember trading futures during a period when the daily range tripled within a week. I did not adjust quickly enough. One losing trade erased three weeks of careful gains. That was the moment I finally understood: position sizing is not a fixed number. It is a response to current market conditions. In volatile environments, I trade smaller. Sometimes much smaller. Survival first. Profits second. 👉 2. Be More Selective About Setups. When markets move fast, opportunities appear everywhere. Every chart looks exciting. Every breakout feels urgent. That is the trap. Volatility creates noise. If you trade every signal, your account becomes the liquidity provider for disciplined traders who wait. During wild periods, I become extremely selective. I only take A-grade setups. Clear structure. Clean levels. Obvious invalidation. If I hesitate even slightly, I pass. The funny thing is, I usually end up trading less and making more. In volatile markets, patience becomes a weapon. The best trades stand out clearly. The rest are distractions. 👉 3. Consider Switching to Less Volatile Instruments There is no rule that says you must trade the same instrument all the time. If you usually trade high beta stocks or aggressive futures contracts, consider stepping sideways. Some markets are naturally calmer. Some contracts have smaller multipliers. Some ETFs provide similar exposure with less violent swings. I once shifted from a very fast index future to a smaller contract during a chaotic period. The setups were the same. My analysis was the same. The only difference was that I could think clearly again. When volatility overwhelms you, reduce the intensity of the instrument. There is no shame in that. Professional traders adapt. They do not prove toughness. 👉 4. Using Options Instead of the Underlying One of the most powerful adjustments I ever made during volatile periods was switching from trading the underlying futures contract to trading options on it. Here is why. In highly volatile markets, futures move brutally fast. Slippage increases. Stops get skipped. Emotional pressure builds quickly. Options change the game. With defined risk structures, you know your maximum loss from the start. Buying a call or put limits the downside to the premium paid. Selling spreads defines exposure. The psychological impact alone is enormous. For example, instead of trading a full futures position into a breakout, I sometimes buy a slightly in-the-money option. My risk becomes fixed. I can hold through normal volatility without being shaken out by random spikes. In extreme markets, I often prefer debit spreads. They reduce cost, define risk, and soften the impact of implied volatility shifts. Options are not magic. They require understanding of volatility, time decay, and liquidity. But in violent markets, they can be a more controlled vehicle than the raw underlying. 👉 5. Put Idle Cash to Work in Bonds Another lesson that took me years to learn: cash does not have to sit idle. In volatile markets, I often reduce exposure. That means capital sits on the sidelines. Instead of letting it do nothing, I allocate a portion into short-term bonds or bond funds. It is not about chasing yield. It is about participation without stress. Even modest interest income stabilizes the equity curve. It smooths psychological pressure. It reminds you that capital can work quietly. When markets are unstable, the combination of reduced risk in trading and steady bond income creates balance. You stay active without being overexposed. That stability allows better decision making. 👉 6. Learn Less Stressful Trading Techniques The biggest change in my career was not technical. It was structural. I used to be a scalper. Fast entries. Quick exits. Constant screen time. During volatile phases, it felt like being inside a washing machine. Over time, I realized something important: volatility does not require speed. It requires positioning. I gradually shifted toward swing trading. Wider time frames. Smaller size. Clearer structures. Fewer decisions per day. When you combine smaller positions with longer holding periods, volatility becomes less threatening. It turns into opportunity. Instead of reacting to every tick, you allow the market to fluctuate inside a larger thesis. This does not mean abandoning short-term trading completely. It means adapting your style to your stress tolerance and the environment. Volatile markets expose weaknesses. They force you to confront whether your method matches your personality. 👉 Final Thoughts Volatility is not new. Markets have always gone through violent phases. They will continue to do so long after we are gone. The traders who survive are not the boldest. They are the most adaptable. Reduce size. Increase selectivity. Consider alternative instruments. Use options intelligently. Let idle capital earn interest. And if necessary, evolve your trading style toward something calmer and more sustainable. I have seen accounts explode because traders tried to fight volatility. I have also seen traders quietly build wealth by respecting it. The storm will always come. The question is not whether you can control it. The question is whether you adjust your sails in time. Trade save and survive another day... Emilio
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by HowToChart
Nasdaq Short Is Playing Out - TGT 24'080First, Nasdaq has failed to make a new high. Then price dropped, missing the red CL by just a couple of points. Is this really a miss? Let’s play: *What if…* The white fork measured how far price could pull back. As we Forkers know, there was about an 80% probability that price would retrace to the white Centerline - and indeed, the CL was reached. Now it looks like price is turning on a dime. Next target: the red Centerline around 24,080–24,000. Here I’m sharing some deeper insights on the lower time frames: Questions and comments are always appreciated.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HowToChart
1
Microsoft - Struggling with a decision?OK, let me give you my 5 cents. In this weekly chart analysis, the white up-sloping Pitchfork initially projected a sustained bullish journey for Microsoft. Early price action saw the stock blow through the Center Line (CL) before finding temporary resistance and turning at the upper 1/4 Line. From that peak, the Centerline of the white fork became the primary downside target. Upon closer inspection, price action stalled briefly at this level before decisively breaking through to the downside. While bulls attempted to reclaim the CL, the sheer market pressure proved too great, there simply wasn't enough "Gas In The Goose" to maintain the upward trajectory. Once price slipped below the white Centerline, it signaled the necessity of drawing a red Pullback Pitchfork to project targets for a potential short trade. Technical probability suggests an 80% chance of price reaching the Centerline of a new fork, a target we have now successfully hit. The intensity of the sell-off was notable; the "bear crowd" took total control, driving MSFT lower than the Lower Median Line Parallel (L-MLH). This decline was exacerbated by the broader market immediate sell-off in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, leaving Microsoft vulnerable to systemic macro pressure. Current Outlook & Price Targets Immediate Resistance: If we close the week below the lower white MLH, I expect a short-term relief rally or "pull-back" to retest that line from below. Downside Support: A failure to reclaim that level points toward the second white-dashed Warning Line of the original Pitchfork. The "Dip-Buy" Caution: Traders should note that the Warning Line is not a guaranteed floor. There is a secondary, lower target at the red Lower Median Line Parallel (L-MLH). Currently, the technical structure suggests significant downside potential remains. I will continue to monitor these levels closely. Members will receive updates as soon as a high-probability trade opportunity emerges. If you like this post, then follow and boost my analysis - thanks very much. Wishing you a happy day Emilio - Control risk with proper position sizing, not hope or guesswork. - If you want the fundamentals too, just check out my links
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by HowToChart
DAX 3-Drives Pattern - Monster Short SignalOK, I admit, it’s very early to call this a three-drives pattern. But as a trader, I always think, “What if?” This is my way of preparing early in the process. It allows me to make educated decisions, rather than FOMO trades. What I am waiting for now is a break of the yellow CIB line. Typically, after such a break, price pulls back to retest it. This behavior is similar to what we see when the median line of a fork is broken. If this setup triggers, it would clearly be a long-term play. Or it could be over vevry quick via a very sharp, violent move to the south. Let’s watch it and prepare for this thesis.
XETR:DAXShort
by HowToChart
1
Crude to $75 Profit TargetYou all know I'm a 100% Chart driven trader. But of course I also have my fundamental thoughts. Here is my layman’s fundamental thesis: I do not believe that Venezuelan oil will flood global markets, just because they grabed Maduro. On the contrary, the opposite is more likely. Venezuela’s production is dominated by heavy and extra-heavy crude, which is costly to extract and difficult to refine. As a result, an oversupplied market is unlikely from this point of view. But with a U.S. military invasion of Iran could be very likely to drive oil prices higher, potentially sharply so. The effect would stem from supply risk, transportation chokepoints, and market psychology I think. Even if physical supply disruptions were initially limited. My experience is, that short-term crazy price moves are often driven by psychological factors. So, in short: 1. Risk to the Strait of Hormuz (Primary Factor) 2. Potential loss or Threat of Iranian Oil Supply 3. Spillover Risk to Other Producers 4. Speculation and Financial Market Reaction 5. OPEC and Strategic Reserves Probably Very Limited Sure, the magnitude would depend on duration, scope, and whether shipping through Hormuz remains uninterrupted, but upward price pressure would be immediate. Timing is always the most difficult part. That’s why I would look at a trade with a horizon of at least three months, or longer (likely using ITM LEAP options). The chart needs to confirm my thesis. First, I want to see a break of the descending pressure line (red). Next, the CIB line must be broken. Finally, a sign of stabilization above the CIB line would serve as my entry signal. That’s it. My stalker hat is on.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by HowToChart
8
Si1! - A "Short" Silver Heads-UpWhat we see on these two charts are two different Andrews Pitchforks. - same time window - different time period - different pitchfork placement The left chart maps the pendulum swings. The right chart maps the real swings. LEFT CHART The market has almost reached the maximum stretch point, arriving at the U-MLH. A reversal toward the centerline is very likely, as the market tends to seek balance after such an extreme stretch. Classic mean reversion. RIGHT CHART Here we see that silver has reached the centerline - the classic 80% target for a pitchfork trader. From here, the market can break/zoom through the centerline, retest it, and continue upward. In the LEFT chart, this would correspond to a larger stretch toward Warning Line 1. Or the market may turn at the centerline because it has found its balance, which in the LEFT chart would confirm the stretch-and-turn scenario. Either way, caution is warranted. I would at least take partial profits (50% is always good) and treat myself to an enjoyable Christmas party! Anyone who would like to learn more about pitchforks, please read my bio here on TradingView. Happy profits to you Silver Arrows §8-)
COMEX:SI1!Short
by HowToChart
XHB – A continuing long-term short with further downside potentiIn my analysis it is unquestionable that the housing market is weakening further, and a significant mid-term decline is inevitable. My godchild is currently spending a few months in the United States, preparing for an English degree. What she tells me about the housing situation and grocery prices is even more alarming than I expected. I have already taken some short positions during the decline since September and closed part of them. Now I see further downside potential, so I have added long-dated put options, some in-the-money for longer setups and some out-of-the-money for shorter-term moves. On the chart, we can see that price has breached the CIB line (yellow) and continued downward. At the U-MLH, we are again seeing signs of weakness - a favorable setup for action. By the time my godchild returns from the U.S. in May 2026, I’m confident I will be able to treat her to steak and lobster, courtesy of this trade. If not, well - my Carbonara Speciale is also a fine way to soothe the sting of a stop-loss. Take care out there.
AMEX:XHBShort
by HowToChart
Nasdaq nearing critical balanceIn November, we observed a Hagopian pattern - the market failed to reach the centerline despite the high probability of doing so (see weekly chart left). MACD-V is in divergence since then. A sign to be especially cautious. This led to the current rally lasting more than ten days without a single close below a prior low. It seems the Plunge Protection Team may be at work. In any case, we are now approaching the yellow centerline, the market’s point of balance. From there, the market will determine whether we push once more above the yellow centerline toward the white U-MLH, or turn downward, producing a second Hagopian and falling back toward the white centerline. If the second scenario unfolds, the path toward significantly lower prices would be wide open. Let’s see what we get for Christmas…
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HowToChart
Bitcoin Target 60K - Here's why (...you should hedge now)🔱 Bitcoin is behaving like a model student when it comes to the fork framework. 🔱 The first re-test at the white centerline, followed by a drop down to the red centerline, and then to the white lower median line parallel was already impressive. And the story isn’t over yet! In the past days we’ve seen a re-test at the white L-MLH. Bitcoin failed to trade its way back into the fork. That leaves further price losses as the likely outcome. The next targets are: 👉 the 1/4 level at around 76,000 👉 the white warning line at about 70K–72K 👉 the final move to the red L-MLH at around 60K This decline would go hand in hand with continued sell-offs in the major indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500. It would also support my previous post regarding a massive rise in TLT. (props to @coinwide for the heads-up!) 🚨 A hedge would be appropriate now, before the VIX ignites its rocket and option prices explode. Wish you all the best out there!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by HowToChart
TLT - A long-term outlookIf price is moving up, we look for support structure, which in this case is a Real Swing Low (RSL). An RSL is confirmed when the most recent Real Swing High (RSH) is broken. What we’re seeing here is the beginning of a stair-step move to the upside, including short-term support. Even the CIB has been broken, which suggests that a shift in market behavior is underway. Our statistical probability of hitting the centerline is roughly 80%. That implies we can look for a longer-term play in TLT. However, keep a close eye on the 1/4 line. It isn’t exactly friendly, as the rejections we’ve seen so far make clear. I probably go with ITM LEAP options with a Delta of around 70–80 and a over 120 DTE. Happy profits, and for those in the U.S., wishing you a happy Thanksgiving.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by HowToChart
2
If Nasdaq can crack the pressure line then...🔱 We have a Hagopian on the down-move. 🔱 Price was (so far) not able to reach the L-MLH of the red fork. If buyers can eat through the pressure cheese, then the Long-Play is on. Most often we see price breaking the pressure line and then coming back to it, scaring out the early longs, just to rush upwards again. So don’t panic if this happens. Place a proper stop and you're good. As for targets, there is the red Centerline and the white Centerline. On a break of the red CL, we have a high chance to see the same scenario as with the pressure line: UP-Down-MoreUp. First snow in Switzerland arrived and Santa is preparing the reindeer to bring us some dough ;-) Wish you all a profitable Friday.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by HowToChart
11
A Pitchfork For The LEAPI enjoy a good challenge. Probably more than is strictly healthy. That’s why I jumped into the LEAP. This time I’ve actually got enough hours in the day to show up for the fight. I’m genuinely curious whether I can trade my way into the top 50, even though I’ve already committed a few strategic blunders that shaved off some perfectly good profit. But that’s trading in the real world, isn’t it? A comedy of precision errors. My plan is simple: stick to the Andrews Pitchfork framework and nothing else. The goal isn’t just to place well; it’s to demonstrate how much of an edge this tool offers when you use its rules properly. Don’t wish me luck - I’m aiming to get there by skill and stubbornness.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by HowToChart
3
Bitcoin - We've reached the last line of support🔱 The Buyers’ Zone represents the last major support before price potentially drops toward the red centerline. 🔱 👉 The 3-Drives pattern, signaling exhaustion in the current move. 👉 Broader markets are highly stretched; a broader trend reversal would likely pull Bitcoin down with it. 👉 The slanted support line in the dayli chart is now resistance that could not be washed away. Given these conditions, there’s a strong possibility that this final support zone won’t hold, leading to a deeper flush. For targets I see the red Centerline, and even the L-MLH, which gives us a natural support. Stay sharp and trade safe—wishing you a profitable week ahead
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by HowToChart
ARKK — A “Short” Ranting🔱 ARKK isn’t a revolution - it’s a high-fee, high-drama lottery ticket dressed in a lab coat. 🔱 🏦 Here's my take on the Fundamentals 🏦 ⚠️ Overpriced Dreams: You’re paying luxury prices for companies that don’t make money—most can’t even spell “free cash flow.” ⚠️ Interest-Rate Kryptonite: When rates rise, ARKK melts. Its “future profits” vanish faster than smoke in a wind tunnel. ⚠️Liquidity Trap: It owns too much of too little; one wave of redemptions and it’s forced to dump stocks into a falling market. ⚠️ Weak Alpha, Big Fee: For all the hype, it lags a plain NASDAQ ETF - you’re paying 0.75% to underperform. ⚠️ Factor Suicide: It’s built from the worst statistical factors. Expensive, volatile, unprofitable stocks that hate inflation. ⚠️ Concentration Bomb: Half the fund sits in a handful of “disruptors.” If one blows up, the whole thing shakes. ⚠️ Dumb Money Flow: Retail investors chase this thing at highs and bail at lows. Every short seller’s dream. ⚠️ Copycats and Fee Drag: Competitors now clone the “innovation” pitch cheaper and better, while ARKK drags its old fee chain. 📈 And finally, here's the Chart Analysis This flying Pig is ready to be Barbequed. It missed the pump up to the Warning Line and fell back into the Fork. Today it opened inside, and if nothing superstitious happens, it’ll close inside too. So, I’m short - period. As always, my first target is the Centerline. Have a great weekend, everyone and grab some gas for the BBQ.
CBOE:ARKKShort
by HowToChart
METAs Short Target At $630🔱 The Cracks Are Showing 🔱 🏦 Let’s talk fundamentals. The biggest storm cloud hanging over META right now? Regulation — in both the EU and the U.S. If fines or compliance costs ramp up, profits get squeezed and strategy shifts become inevitable. 👉 Competition is biting too. New apps are stealing attention, and every second users spend elsewhere chips away at Meta’s moat. ⚠️ Then there’s the AI spending spree. Billions are burning to build infrastructure, but if those bets don’t pay off fast, margins will bleed. Add growing media pressure — from content moderation to child safety — and you’ve got a brand walking through a minefield of reputational risk. 📈 Now, look at the chart. The price has fallen below the Centerline. That’s not noise — that’s a message. It’s a classic short signal. Before the drop, we saw price action stall again and again at the upper quarter line. That’s not random congestion. That’s distribution — the big whales quietly unloading while everyone else was still bullish. Then came the pullback to the Centerline. followed by a weak close. Translation: buyers are drying up. 💰 Target? $630 at the L-MLH. With smart position sizing, this could be a sweet Christmas trade.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by HowToChart
2