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QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTION
309 1 10
USDJPY, D Long
LONG USDJPY - FED & BOJ MONPOL, RISK SENTIMENT & ELECTION

LONG USDJPY: 1. Slightly late posting this position but we got long at 104.5 earlier today. The rationale behind owning USD VS JPY is as follows. USD risks are bid 1) in the run up to the 2015 dec hike USD traded extremely bid with DXY breaking through 100, based on the last 2wks i expect USD to mirror 2015 and continue the bid tone we have seen both in 2015 ...

AlexandreNygal AlexandreNygal VIX, D,
VIX: VIX : The fear index converging to 15%
103 0 2
VIX, D
VIX : The fear index converging to 15%

The VIX, also known as the fear index, is calculated from the price of options, in other words the cost of insurance against shifts in the market. When investors are willing to pay more to protect themselves, it means they are worried about the near future. Currently, and since a few months now, the evolution of VIX can be described on the following two points ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines RIGL, D,
RIGL: HIGH IMPLIED VOLATILITY OPTIONS (8/28)
429 0 3
RIGL, D
HIGH IMPLIED VOLATILITY OPTIONS (8/28)

One of the first things I do when searching for either covered calls to do or just general premium selling plays is to look for high implied volatility underlyings with relatively decent expirations, strike widths, and fairly tight spreads (i.e., having weeklies is best with $1 wide strike widths and a bid/ask that is no more than .15 wide from top to bottom is ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D,
USDJPY: BOJ: JPY V USD, EUR, GBP - WHAT THE OPTION MARKET IS TELLING US
479 6 11
USDJPY, D
BOJ: JPY V USD, EUR, GBP - WHAT THE OPTION MARKET IS TELLING US

50 Delta ATM Volatilities: USDJPY - - $Yen has an ATM implied volatility curve of 55.95%mrkt 24.08%1wk 18.31%2wk 14.12%1m - Obviously we are aggressively steeper in the front end, with BOJ tomorrow and JPY MOF Fiscal Package details coming next week providing heightened vol for the 1day and 1wk vols - naturally we then see the curve tail off as the event vol ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading NZDUSD, D, Short ,
NZDUSD: NZDUSD: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 0.70 RES, MA, STDEV, IV=HV & RR
143 0 13
NZDUSD, D Short
NZDUSD: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 0.70 RES, MA, STDEV, IV=HV & RR

NZD$ Technical analysis - Remain bearish below 0.70 - 0.69tp1 0.68tp2 on a rate cut (Aug 10th): Key level close: 1. On the daily and weekly we closed at the strongest pivot point of recent times at 0.70 - this is very bearish as historically this is the strongest level (lower than post brexit). MA: 1. We trade below the 4wk and 3m MA - this is a bearish ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, D, Long ,
USDJPY: USDJPY: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MA, KEY SUPPORT, STANDEV, IV>HV, RR
184 0 11
USDJPY, D Long
USDJPY: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MA, KEY SUPPORT, STANDEV, IV>HV, RR

Yen$ Technical analysis - Bullish but fundamentally driven this week: Key level close: 1. On the daily and weekly we closed above the 2nd strongest pivot point of recent times at 1.055 - this is very supportive as historically this is the strongest level (next to 100/101). MA: 1. We trade above the 4wk ma and the 3m MA is acting as strong support (black line) ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: SELL EURUSD: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 1.09 CLOSE, MA, STANDEV, IV>HV
317 3 9
EURUSD, D Short
SELL EURUSD: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - 1.09 CLOSE, MA, STANDEV, IV>HV

EUR$ Technical analysis - highly bearish: Key level close: 1. On the daily and weekly we closed below the strongest pivot point of recent times below 1.10 - this is very bearish as historically this is the strongest level (lower than post brexit). MA: 1. We trade below the 2wk and 4wk MA - this is a bearish indication + we have been below the 3m MA since ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - BEARISH MA, IV>HV, STANDEV & RR
295 2 9
GBPUSD, D Short
GBPUSD: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - BEARISH MA, IV>HV, STANDEV & RR

Technical analysis - highly bearish: MA: 1. Just crossed the 2wk and 4wk MA - this is a bearish indication + we have been below the 3m MA for several weeks unsurprisingly since brexit. IV/ HV: 1. Realised Vols have also unsurprisingly come off, this would but bullish but brexit has distorted the longer dated HV and they are lagging - Implied vols are ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines SPX, D,
SPX: SOLD TO OPEN: SPX JULY 22ND 1920/1930/2140/2150 IRON CONDOR
35 0 2
SPX, D
SOLD TO OPEN: SPX JULY 22ND 1920/1930/2140/2150 IRON CONDOR

Out of one SPX iron condor ... into another. Did this from my phone, so I don't have the exact metrics on this little fella, but it was supposed to be a "classic" skewed instrument iron condor, with the short call strike at the 75% probability out-of-the-money strike and the short put at the 85% probability out-of-the-money strike for the expiry. I usually like ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPJPY, D, Short ,
GBPJPY: GBP DOWNSIDE BREXIT POSITIONING & VOLATILITY UPDATE
180 0 10
GBPJPY, D Short
GBP DOWNSIDE BREXIT POSITIONING & VOLATILITY UPDATE

My FX portfolio currently consists of: - 2Long x USDJPY @ 106.8; 2Short x GBPJPY @ 151.2 (dynamic hedge for long UJ); 2Short x GBPUSD @ 1.4570. I will add to my short GBPUSD holdings if i can get a similar price & I may add to short GBPCHF or EURCHF downside if markets make a turn for the worst as IMO CHF denominations are under-priced relatively (as discussed ...

NaughtyPines NaughtyPines IUX, D,
IUX: TRADE IDEA: RUT/IUX 1075/1085/1190/1200 IRON CONDOR
33 0 0
IUX, D
TRADE IDEA: RUT/IUX 1075/1085/1190/1200 IRON CONDOR

Staying with short duration index setups here, so that I can be flexible if any non index premium selling opportunities come along; going with RUT over SPX due to RUT's higher implied volatility ... . (As a smaller, alternative trade, you can look at a similar setup in IWM). Metrics: Probability of Profit: 62% P50: 71% Max Profit: $340/contract Max Loss/Buying ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, W, Long ,
USDJPY: BUY USDJPY: SUP LEVEL @105.5 & VOLATILITY SELL-OFF @ HIGH LEVELS
248 4 9
USDJPY, W Long
BUY USDJPY: SUP LEVEL @105.5 & VOLATILITY SELL-OFF @ HIGH LEVELS

BUY USDJPY @106.5 or @107.0 - SL @105 - TP @109-11 based on: $YEN's historical most important support level - The 105.5 Key level will more than likely hold as it has many times before - At 105.5 there are 3 significant UNSUCCESSFUL tests of the level over the last 3 years thus it is a great entry point. Also another plus is if you look at the monthly chart you ...

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