DXYUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% DXY, 48% Cash.
* FOMC WATCH . DXY, VIX and Agriculture are down while Cryptos, Equity Futures, US Treasuries, CNYUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, Metals, Oil and Energy are up. White House Economic Advisor Bernstein said today that "President Biden has endorsed the Fed's policy pivot",...
DXYUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% DXY, 70% Cash.
* China delayed publishing key economic data including retail sales, industrial production, home prices and Q3 GDP amidst Incumbent President Xi Jin Ping's expected reelection for a third term . Chinese officials say it's because of the ongoing National Congress of the Chinese...
SPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash.
* On Saturday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry urged Chinese citizens still living and working in Ukraine to evacuate as soon as possible . In what Russia claims to a be a response to "acts of terrorism" on Russian people after the Crimean bridge bombing, Russia has now...
SPXUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% SPX, 70% Cash.
*Equities, Futures, Cryptos, Metals, Energy, GBPUSD, and EURUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries and VIX are up once again. Fears of nuclear war being exacerbated by resolute threats from Putin and desperate social media pleas by people like Elon Musk are pushing investors...
SPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% SPX, 60% Cash.
* BOUNCE WATCH . The Employment Situation was released this morning and 263k nonfarm workers were added to the economy in September while Unemployment edged back down to 3.5% from 3.7% in August. The 17th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 2.9% today compared to...
SPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 65% SPX, 35% Cash.
* S&P September US PMI came in at 52 compared to 51.5 and beating the consensus estimate of 51.8. Though marginal, September PMI increasing as DXY continues to go up and inflation remains high implies that the demand outlook improved slightly since August, which is odd...
DXYUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% DXY, 40% Cash.
* US September PCE price index increased 0.3% from August, and Core PCE increased by 0.6% . DXY, US Treasuries, Gold, Agriculture, GBPUSD and Cryptos are up while VIX, Equities, Equity Futures, EURUSD and Energy are down. In Vladimir Putin's speech today he announced...
SPXUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 30% SPX, 70% Cash .
*FOMC WATCH. This week is already off to a volatile start with Equities starting in the red and currently attempting to close in the green. Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Energy, DXY and US 10yr Bonds are either flat or up while VIX, EURUSD, US 30yr Bonds and Gold are flat...
SPXUSD Daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash.
* BOUNCE WATCH . All eyes are on the big FOMC statement at 2pm on 09/21. The big volatility and volume surge today was largely due to a whopping $3.2t OpEx (options expiration) . The UofM Consumer Sentiment Index for September came in at 59.5 compared to 58.2 in August,...
SPXUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash.
*August CPI surprised to the upside by increasing 0.1% to finish 8.3% higher than the year before compared to 8.1% consensus estimates, sending Equities, Cryptos, Commodities, Euro and Futures into the red. Today's winners are once again a combination of DXY, US Treasuries and VIX....
SPXUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% SPX, 30% Cash.
*Equities Futures, Precious Metals, EURUSD and Cryptos are up slightly while DXY and US Treasuries are down before market open this week. All eyes will be on August CPI this Tuesday, if it comes in at consensus (8.1%) or lower, markets will likely rally in the near term; however, in the...
SPX Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 15% SPX, 85% Cash.
* BOUNCE WATCH . Equities and Cryptos continue to sell off in favor of DXY and US Treasuries as Russia halts the Nordstream natural gas pipeline indefinitely (renewing fears of a brutal European winter energy crisis). Key Upcoming Dates: 10th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 09/07 ; ...
DXY Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% DXY, 40% Cash.
*After briefly touching $110 minor resistance in Friday's session, the DXY will attempt to retest the next resistance between $112 (Weekly resistance) and $114 (Daily resistance). The last time the DXY tested $112 Weekly resistance was in 2000. If the Fed raises FFR by 75bps on 09/21...
SPXUSD Daily cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% SPX, 75% Cash.
*Equities, Equity Futures and Gold are all slightly down to start the week while Cryptos, VIX, Energy and US Treasuries are up and DXY has stayed relatively flat. The Risk-Off reaction to Jerome Powell's hawkish comments in Jackson Hole last Friday is continuing into the start of this...
SPXUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash.
* The Fed Minutes confirmed preexisting knowledge that inflation is still the primary concern for the economy (making this release a low impact event) and that more downsizing of the Fed balance sheet + another 50bps is the baseline scenario for the next FOMC meeting on 09/21....
SPXUSD Daily cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 75% SPX, 25% Cash . *The BLS reported PPI numbers this morning and they followed in the footsteps of CPI by coming in lower than the month prior, from a 1% rise in June to a -0.5% drop in July. This was a surprise because consensus estimates had PPI rising by 0.2%, such a dramatic fall can largely be attributed...
DXY Daily bearish. Recommended ratio: 5% DXY, 95% Cash . *Treasuries (excluding the 30 yr Bond) and the Dollar are correcting after a bullish summer fueled by supply chain woes and recession fears. Supply chain woes have not been remediated but there is an element of the Bullwhip Effect that should be considered and that is the excess supply that can come...
