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Gold lost in the Fog?If you’ve been staring at the PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD charts for the last 48 hours, you’ve probably realized the market has developed a serious case of commitment issues. 🤷‍♂️ Between the geopolitical chess match involving the US and Iran and some truly bizarre data reactions, we are officially in the "Wait and See" zone. 🛑 🕊️ Peace vs. Persistence The market is currently trapped in a sideways corridor, paced by the headlines. 📰 Here is the simple math of the situation: The Peace Pivot: If Iran accepts a deal, the reaction will be instant. ⚡️ Blink and you might miss the entry! The War Drag: If the conflict persists without a resolution, history tells us the market will likely lose steam and drift lower. 📉 🧐 The NFP Twilight Zone Friday’s NFP Day was... weird. 🤔 The numbers came in nearly double the expectations—a total knockout on paper! 🥊 Usually, that’s a green light for the Greenback, but the Dollar 💵 decided to just stay in bed. Without the Dollar or Gold picking a lane, we’re basically revving the engine while the car is in park. 🏎️💨 It’s going to take more than just "good numbers" to break this stalemate. 🗺️ Your Cheat Sheet for the Week The mid-term view is still a bit of a blur, so I’m drawing some very hard lines in the sand to stay sane. 🏖️📊 The Bullish Ceiling ($4,889): If we crack above this, the "downside" thesis is officially canceled. ❌🐻 The Gravity Well ($4,500): If Gold slips back to this mark, consider any "up move" invalidated. 🚫🐂 Short-Term Magnet ($4,666): This is the target that looks most tempting if the bears get hungry. 🍯 The Upside Cap ($4,850): My current limit for any "hopium" rallies. 🎈 🏹 The "Straddle" Strategy Since the market isn't clearly bullish or bearish right now, it's acting more like a ping-pong ball. 🏓 My plan? Go both ways. ↔️ I’m setting orders on both sides of these ranges with tight stop losses. I don't need to be a psychic; I just need to be there when the breakout finally happens! 💸 📱 Beware the "Notification" Trap Between President Trump’s social media feed 🐦 and the endless cycle of "Breaking News" that gets flagged as Fake News 🚫 an hour later, the volatility is being driven by headlines, not just trendlines. Tip: Don't chase the "leaked" news. Stick to the levels, stay cautious, and don't let a single post wreck your account! 🛡️💼 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Wick-Sniper
The Imminent U.S.–Iran Crisis: A Real-Time Analytical AssessmentDate of Analysis: Friday, November 7, 2025 Overview The following is a condensed version of a dynamic strategic discussion between an intelligent user and an AI assistant. The analysis aimed to decode the hidden layers of a potentially imminent military crisis in the Middle East through real-time observation of geopolitical developments. Introduction: Initial Hypothesis and the Major Shift The analysis initially rested on the assumption that following the “12-Day War” (June 2025), the region was in a fragile ceasefire. The central question was when the “second round” of conflict might begin. It was correctly identified that Israel’s main constraint was a shortage of defensive missiles. Turning Point: Assuming four months had passed since the first war, it was concluded that the logistical bottleneck (missile defense shortage) had likely been resolved. This invalidated earlier timelines predicting renewed conflict by December and instead shifted the danger window to November—the current month. Part I: The Strategic Deception (Iraq and Venezuela as Cover) Attention then turned to a wave of simultaneous “crisis signals”: rising talk of “a U.S. conflict with Venezuela” and “U.S. warnings to Iraq.” Assessment: These were identified as elements of a classic deception operation, intended to divert the attention of the media, diplomats, and, most importantly, Iran’s intelligence and defense systems away from the real target. This served as a perfect cover for preparing a strike on Iran. Part II: Breakdown of the Deception and Loss of Surprise Key Insight (User’s Observation): The user correctly noted that this deception had failed. With “war with Iran” trending again in global media and official warnings escalating, Iran was no longer complacent—it had entered maximum alert. This fundamentally changed the dynamics. The element of surprise, the attacker’s greatest asset, was now entirely lost. Part III: The “Forced Hand” Scenario When surprise evaporates, what can the attacker (the U.S. and Israel) do next? Analysis: The attacker is now trapped in a strategic stalemate: Cost of Attrition: Maintaining full-scale military readiness for both sides is expensive, stressful, and unsustainable. Risk of Delay: Every passing hour allows Iran to disperse and conceal its strategic assets (missiles, drones), making target acquisition harder. Point of No Return: The use of Venezuela and Iraq as covers was the equivalent of cocking a rifle—any retreat now would amount to a catastrophic strategic humiliation for the U.S. Time-Based Conclusion: Since the deception failed and surprise is gone, the attacker is effectively compelled to act. They must launch the attack before their forces degrade further and before Iran becomes even more fortified. New Urgent Window: Within 24 to 72 hours (this very weekend). Part IV: The Hidden Economics of War — Why “Crisis” Becomes a “Solution” In the final stage, the focus shifted from “when” to “why”, exploring the economic motives driving the potential escalation. The analysis suggested that this war could serve as a planned economic reset to address U.S. domestic challenges. Global Economic Shock: The immediate aftermath of an attack would be a spike in oil prices (estimated to surpass $150 per barrel within 24 hours) due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliation—triggering global stagflation. Dollar Strength (Flight to Safety): During such turmoil, global investors would flee risky assets (like crypto, which had already pre-priced a downturn) and rush into U.S. dollars, causing the DXY index to surge. Domestic Political and Economic Diversion (Wag the Dog Effect): This crisis would allow the U.S. government to: Deflect attention from domestic debt and weak economic indicators (e.g., PMI and recession risks). Reignite the military-industrial complex, boosting GDP through massive arms sales to regional allies and internal consumption. Justify inflation by attributing it to “geopolitical instability and rising oil prices” rather than past monetary policies.
TVC:USOILLong
by mehdikebrititrader
WTI to test $100 as supply shock meets technical resistanceWTI crude has rallied from the $78 support level due to a supply shock from the US-Iran conflict. This video maps out whether the asset could break the $100 resistance or if a reversal is forming. Key topics - Catalyst : The closed Strait of Hormuz provides upward pressure but the war impact fades as price has stalled under $100. - Market context : Price action outlines a potential pennant/trianlge or inverse head and shoulders pattern emerging from the 80 swing low. - Resistance zone : Crude faces structural resistance between $98 and $101 alongside a descending trendline. Scenarios & trade plan Bullish — Short term : A break above the 101 resistance triggers a move toward 106 and 112. A pullback to 86 offers a setup to watch for a flip in momentum. Bearish — Short term : A failure to cross 98 and a break of the ascending channel triggers downside risk. This rejection brings the 91 and 86 support zones into focus. Can WTI break above 100 or reject into a deeper pullback? Disclaimer This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:WTIShort
by ThinkMarkets
UNG | Rarely Wrong, but Heating Bills Will Pop Higher!If you thought your wallet felt light after the holidays, buckle up. Natural gas is about to pull a "Phoenix" act, and it’s not just because the groundhog saw its shadow. Between a geopolitical powder keg in the Middle East and the ghost of winter storms past, the "buy the dip" crowd is about to look like geniuses—and everyone else is going to be wearing three sweaters indoors. 1. The "Strait" Jacket: The Iran Factor As of this weekend (February 28, 2026), the "will they, won't they" drama between the US/Israel and Iran has officially pivoted to "they did." With military strikes hitting Iranian infrastructure, the market is staring down the Strait of Hormuz like a kid staring at a broken glass jar. The Math: Roughly 20% of the world’s LNG flows through that narrow strip of water. The Snark: If Iran decides to park a few "peaceful" naval vessels in the middle of the lane, analysts are predicting global LNG prices could quadruple. That’s not a "pop"—that’s a moon mission without a flight plan. 2. "Winter Storm Fern" Left the Cupboard Bare Remember late January? While you were probably complaining about the slush, Winter Storm Fern was busy devouring the US natural gas supply. The Record: We saw the largest weekly storage withdrawal in history (360 Bcf). The Fallout: US inventories are currently 8% below where they should be for late February. We’re basically running the heater on "E," and the EIA just hiked their March price forecast by 40% to account for the fact that we're one cold snap away from a real problem. 3. The Technical "Spring-Load" From a swing trader's perspective, the setup is almost offensive: The Gap: March futures got hammered down to the $3.20 range earlier this month on "mild weather" hopes. The Reality: That low price didn't account for a regional war. Now, with the 3D MACD curving up and a massive volume spike expected at Sunday's open, that $3.20 looks like a gift-wrapped entry from 2024. The Verdict The market was priced for a "boring" end to winter. Instead, it got a geopolitical explosion and a storage deficit. If you haven't hedged your heating costs or looked at UNG/BOIL for a quick scalp, you're essentially betting that the Middle East will suddenly become a bastion of tranquility and the laws of supply and demand are merely suggestions.
AMEX:UNGLong
by DivergenceSeeker
EURUSD trading sidewaysEURUSD continues to hold above 1,1500, with the market remaining in a wait-and-see mode. Today is a holiday in some markets, which means lower liquidity and weaker price movements. The main focus this week is the deadline set by Trump for negotiations with Iran - any new developments could trigger sharp market reactions. Leading up to that deadline, increased tension and unpredictable moves are expected. At current levels, there are no confirmed trade setups and no clear momentum. This is not the time for risky positions - keep risk low and wait for confirmation.
by ForexTrendline
NFP Shock & Epic Dumb Fury🚨 GOLD SHOCK after NFP Data! 📉 Is the price dropping below 4,000 now? 😱 + Elliott Wave Update! 🌊 FX_IDC:XAUUSD What's up, trader community! ✌️ Buckle up, because the gold market just served us a massive portion of volatility. What on earth just happened?! 🤯 💥 NFP Data: Absolute Insanity! Did you guys see the latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data? The forecast was a lame 65k new jobs. What did we get? BAM! 178k! 📈 Almost three times as much as expected! 🤐 So, what does this mean for our beloved gold price in the coming week? Let's consult the crystal ball... 🔮 🐰 Easter Calm Before the Geopolitical Storm? Currently, we have some time to catch our breath over the Easter holidays. But don't kid yourselves: the news machine never sleeps. 📰 Whether it's the ongoing Iran war and Operation Epic Dumb Fury as i call it or other geopolitical escalations just waiting to hit the wires. During the wait you could visit: www.ig.com to see how price is moving. Speaking of the Iran war: Trump stands there and talks about the whole thing being over in 2 to 3 weeks. 🤡 Whoever believes that, be my guest! To be honest: I stopped believing a word that man says a long time ago. 😂 The fact is: Gold now has the perfect catalyst for a proper price drop. 📉 I strongly assume we will see a rising US Dollar 💵 next week. And oil? Will keep going up. 🛢️ That's not a bold prediction, guys, that's a fact. It will happen exactly like that. Period. 🎯 Price Targets: Where is the journey heading? Not too long ago, Gold was well on its way to attacking the magic 5,000 mark again. 🚀 But given this data, the tables will probably turn drastically. Here is my guess for the next few days: 🐻 target: Pullback to 4,200 in the coming week. 🩸 Worst-case scenario: If things get really ugly, we might break through the 4,000 mark. And if that happens... the elevator down is officially open for business! 📉👇 🌊 Elliott Wave Analysis (4H / 8H Chart) For the chart technicians among us: I had my eyes glued to a Wave 4 on the higher timeframe chart (4H/8H) this whole time. 👀 It was close to pushing above the level of Wave 1. If it had done that, our beautiful 1 to 5 formation would have been completely invalidated! 🚫 I was already close to rethinking my bias: Is this not a 1-5 impulse at all, but rather a massive ABC correction? 🤔 In that scenario, we would have finished Wave A at around 5,000, initiated the drop for Wave B, only to rocket up in Wave C towards the All-Time High (ATH). 🚀 BUT : The cards have been reshuffled! 🃏 After the NFP data, I now firmly believe that we will see a clean Wave 1-5 to the downside to 4,200. The probability of the bullish ABC pattern has therefore been postponed for now. 🛑 Conclusion: The bears are out! 🐻 Keep your risk management in check, set your stop-losses, and don't get caught on the wrong foot. What do you guys think? Will we see 4,000 fall, or will geopolitics save us? Let me know in the comments! 👇💬 Happy Trading and Happy Easter! 🐰💸 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Wick-Sniper
4
WTI oil jumps 8% as Trump reverses ceasefire hopes - $112 next?WTI crude oil is subject to serious whiplash again this week. After an initial drop, driven by President Trump’s surprisingly conciliatory remarks regarding Iran's new leadership, the market reversed. With Trump returning to an aggressive stance and the UAE discussing military action, oil has surged 8% in early Thursday trading. While we recently discussed why Brent might be the preferred asset for trading this crisis, WTI is following a very similar technical trajectory. We break down the critical Fibonacci range containing this volatility and map out the targets if the geopolitical pressure forces a breakout. Key topics covered - Geopolitical whiplash : Oil prices dumped to the 50% Fibonacci support near $93.00 after Trump suggested Iran's new regime was "less radicalised", sparking ceasefire hopes. - Hawkish Reversal : We explain why ceasefire hopes were crushed just a day later. Trump stated the US will "continue attacks" and "finish the job," while the Stagato Energy tanker was hit by Iranian missiles, confirming the fundamental upside pressure remains fully intact. - Fibonacci battleground : WTI is currently trapped in a massive technical range. We analyse the bounce off the 50% Fibonacci support ($93.00) and the ongoing battle at the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance ($102.00), which aligns closely with the 100% measured move of the previous double bottom pattern. - RSI divergence : We look at the daily RSI momentum. We note the recent short-term hidden bearish divergence that triggered the drop to $93.00, and discuss why the underlying momentum remains strong enough to potentially push the RSI back into overbought territory above 70. WTI scenarios & trade plan Bullish ($102 breakout) : The key is the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance at $102.00. If WTI can close three sessions above this level and clear the $103.40 peak, the door flies open. The next immediate target is the 161.8% extension at $112.00, followed by the 200% extension at $120.00. Bullish (buy the dip : Instead of buying the breakout, traders can look for a pullback to retest the 100% measured move support near $98.00 - $99.00. This offers a stronger risk-to-reward entry, allowing a stop below the recent $93.00 swing low, with initial targets at $102.00 and trailing stops toward $112.00. Bearish (Short the range) : Traders could attempt to short a rejection or double top near the $102.00 - $103.00 resistance, targeting a return to the $93.00 support. However, given the extreme geopolitical risk and ongoing tanker attacks, stepping in front of this bullish fundamental trend is not ideal unless confirmed by clear bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart. Are you trading the breakout or waiting for a pullback to the $98 support? Share your thoughts in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:WTILong
by ThinkMarkets
Markets Exit Q1 on a High Note Amid War Jitters. What About Q2?S&P 500 🔻 4.6%, Nasdaq 🔻 7.1%, Dow Jones 🔻 3.6% It's January. Economic growth is accelerating, the Federal Reserve looks ready to cut rates further, the AI boom still has runway. The mood is genuinely good. Then, on February 28, the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, and the mood left the building. 📅 The Quarter That Wasn't Q1 2026 will not be remembered fondly in most portfolios. The S&P 500 SP:SPX fell 4.6% for the quarter, the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC dropped 7.1%, and the Dow TVC:DJI slid 3.6%. All three posted their worst quarterly performance in nearly four years. The Nasdaq fell into correction territory on March 26, meaning it had dropped more than 10% from its recent peak, a threshold traders watch closely as a sign that selling has become more than just a bad week. The Dow joined it a day later. Since the conflict began, oil prices have surged 63%, bond yields have climbed sharply, and the S&P 500 has erased all gains accumulated over the previous seven months. Gold OANDA:XAUUSD had an identity crisis of its own . It was, by most measures, an exhausting quarter to be invested in anything. 🕊️ Tuesday's Glimpse of an Off-Ramp. Glimpse. And then, on the very last trading day of March, markets got something they had been waiting weeks for: a hint that the war might end. President Trump told aides he is willing to conclude the conflict without the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that handled roughly a fifth of global energy flows before the conflict effectively closed it. Reports circulated through the session that Iran could be open to ending hostilities as well. Markets, starved of good news, responded immediately . The S&P 500 climbed 2.9%, the Nasdaq surged 3.8%, and the Dow advanced 2.5%, a gain of 1,125 points in a single session. It was the best day of the year for all three indexes. It also came on the last day of the quarter, which is the market's way of reminding you that timing is rarely clean. And then Wednesday was all right and then Trump decided to give a speech and crashed futures markets Thursday . 🏦 The Fed's Vanishing Act One of the quieter but more consequential shifts of the quarter happened in the interest rate market. Before the conflict broke out roughly a month ago, traders were pricing in nearly an 80% chance of two Fed rate cuts by year end. Rate cuts are life to stock investors because lower rates reduce the return available on safer assets like bonds, making stocks relatively more attractive, and they tend to reduce borrowing costs for companies, supporting earnings growth. Those odds have collapsed to less than 5%. With oil prices surging and energy costs feeding into inflation, the Federal Reserve finds itself in an uncomfortable position: a slowing stock market on the one side and a reigniting inflation risk on the other. 💰 What Q2 Is Watching The second-quarter earnings season opens with two main points of focus. The big banks on Wall Street report earnings next week, and their results will offer the first structured look at how corporate America navigated a quarter of geopolitical shock, rate uncertainty, and market volatility. After that comes the main event. The Magnificent Seven, the group of mega-cap technology companies including Apple NASDAQ:AAPL , Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL , Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN , Meta NASDAQ:META , and Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA that dominated market returns for the past two years, will report in the weeks that follow. Their numbers will reveal how the AI infrastructure buildout is holding up under pressure, what’s next and current for spending, and whether the earnings growth that justified sky-high valuations is still intact. 🧭 The Setup Heading In Q2 begins with cautious optimism and a long list of unresolved questions. A ceasefire that holds would send energy prices lower, relieve inflation pressure, and potentially reopen the rate cut conversation. A ceasefire that collapses would do the opposite, quickly. The underlying economy, before the war, was in reasonable shape. That foundation has not disappeared. But markets spent Q1 learning that good fundamentals and bad geopolitics can occupy the same moment simultaneously, and that when they do, geopolitics tends to win the first few rounds. Off to you : Do you see Q2 as a good time for a turning point or the perfect place for another rollercoaster ride? Share your views in the comments!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
10
“Peace Plan” Trading Opportunities According to a Times of Israel report, the 'gift' Iran gave the US recently was allowing an uncertain number of fuel tankers safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. What this might signal is Iran’s willingness to engage with the peace plan reportedly proposed by the US. This is potentially overshadowing reports that the US has deployed additional troops to the region. Thus, oil prices are under mild pressure while stocks are responding positively. We are still waiting for Iran to properly respond or comment on the progress of the talks. Once the situation becomes clearer, volatility in these assets might pick up and strengthen the current market momentum.
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by BlackBull Markets
Positioning for Trump to pull out of Iran Speaking moments ago, US President Donald Trump recently stated that Iran’s military capability is basically NIL and that the US controls Tehran's airspace. He confidently remarked, "I don’t like to say this, but we’ve won this war." Trump also hinted at a goodwill gesture from Iran, describing it as a "present" related to oil and gas. An Iranian source confirmed that the US initiated outreach to end the war. Trump mentioned that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are leading negotiations. The announcement of a 5-day ceasefire on Monday led to a 10% fall in the price of crude. Now, imagine what a “Mission Accomplished” moment for this war could produce in crude. WTI crude oil futures are up almost 4% on the day to around $91.5 per barrel. It has pulled back from a 5% gain that was being registered before Trumps new messages, but the market doesn't appear to be taking the bait of the war-coming-to-an-end messaging yet.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull Markets
$ALO €100B Backlog. Europe Rearming. I'm Buying the War CatalystI am buying Alstom because of what the Iran war is doing to oil. Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel within weeks of the conflict starting, peaking near $120. The IEA called it the worst global energy supply disruption in history. Diesel has exceeded €2 per litre in Germany, France, Italy, Finland and the Netherlands. Fuel prices across Europe are up more than 30%. The European Commission President called it a stark reminder of Europe's vulnerability in relying on other regions for oil and gas. When oil becomes scarce and expensive, the world shifts to electric transport. Electric mass transit means trains. Alstom builds the trains. The numbers confirm the demand is already locked in. Q3 fiscal 2026 orders more than doubled year-over-year to €9.6 billion. Nine-month order intake reached €20 billion. Q3 organic sales grew 5.9%. The backlog as of December 31, 2025 hit a record €100.3 billion. ScotRail contract secured this month for £330 million. Free cash flow guidance stands at at least €1.5 billion over three years. Medium-term EBIT margin target 8% to 10%. JP Morgan maintains Buy. Analyst consensus target €26.18, high target €34.30. Next earnings May 13, 2026. 🟢 Buy Zone (€22.17 area) 0.236 Fibonacci retracement and horizontal monthly support. Stop: €1.74 below entry (7.277%) / €980 position Qty: 11 Risk/Reward Ratio: 9 Target: +65.496% (€39.57 area / €1,180) Key Levels: 🔑 Current Price: €23.96 🔑 Buy Zone: ~€22.17 🔑 52-Week Low: €15.85 🔑 52-Week High: €30.23 🔑 Record Backlog: €100.3B 🔑 9-Month Order Intake: €20B 🔑 Free Cash Flow Target: €1.5B over 3 years 🔑 JP Morgan Rating: Buy 🔑 Analyst Consensus Target: €26.18 🔑 High Analyst Target: €34.30 🔑 Next Earnings: May 13, 2026 🎯 Target: €39.57 (+65% / €1,180) ⚠️ Hard Stop: €1.74 below entry
EURONEXT:ALOLong
by ConnectmyCurrency
2
Gold tumbles 9% as liquidity concerns overshadow safetyGold is heading for its ninth consecutive day of declines, plunging nearly 9% on Monday to briefly flush down to $4,100. Despite a massive weekend escalation in the Middle East, with preparations for potential ground troops and Iran threatening Gulf water systems in retaliation for Trump's threats, gold is ignoring its traditional safe-haven status. It appears that liquidity is currently more valuable than safety. With hawkish central banks forcing a repricing of interest rates, large institutions might be liquidating profitable gold positions to raise cash fast. We break down the critical Fibonacci levels that determine whether this is the bottom of a deep correction or the start of a macro impulse. Key topics covered - The Dash for Cash: Gold is crashing despite extreme geopolitical risks. We explain the "liquidity over safety" dynamic, where hawkish central banks and potential margin calls in equities are forcing institutions to liquidate gold to raise capital. - The Fed Hike Threat: Following last week's central bank "super week," the narrative has shifted. Markets are now pricing in a potential Federal Reserve rate hike this year, stripping gold of its core fundamental tailwind. - The 100% Fibonacci Extension: We analyse the structural decline from the $5,600 record high. The 100% measured move extension of the initial macro drop points exactly to the $4,200 level. While the price temporarily flushed to $4,100 (well below the October 2024 breakout level of $4,380), buyers are now attempting to defend this zone. XAU/USD scenarios & trade plan: Bearish (Impulsive Breakdown): The macro situation remains treacherous for gold. If the price rallies but fails to reclaim the $4,400 resistance (forming a lower high), it signals that this decline is an impulse wave rather than a simple ABC correction. This offers a short-selling opportunity targeting the 161.8% Fibonacci extension all the way down at $3,470 - $3,500. Bullish (ABC Correction Bounce): If this entire drop is just a deep ABC correction, the $4,100 flush may have been the bottom. Risk-on traders can attempt to play the technical bounce, placing a tight stop below the recent $4,100 low. The immediate upside hurdle is reclaiming $4,400, with the ultimate recovery target sitting at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline, near $4,670. Are you buying the panic flush or shorting the bounce? Share your thoughts in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ThinkMarkets
1
$PL Every Conflict Needs Eyes in the Sky. Two Buy Zones Mapped!When US and Israeli forces struck Iran on February 28, 2026, the world turned to Planet Labs for the images. Planet's satellites captured the IRINS Makran, Iran's largest naval vessel, on fire in port. They showed damage to Iranian military facilities, missile sites, and naval bases in real time. Every major news outlet ran Planet's imagery. The Iran war did not just move the stock. It put Planet Labs on the map as critical defense infrastructure. Here is what the company looks like behind the images. Planet operates approximately 200 Earth-imaging satellites, the largest commercial constellation on the planet. On March 3, 2026, Planet was selected as a prime contractor on the Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD IDIQ contract vehicle, which has a ceiling of $151 billion. Planet announced a partnership with Nvidia to build a GPU-native AI engine that turns raw satellite pixels into analysis-ready insights in seconds rather than hours, using Nvidia Blackwell and IGX Thor chips. In-orbit GPU integration is planned for Pelican and Owl satellites. Planet signed a sovereign satellite deal with Sweden. It formed a Defense and Intelligence Advisory Board with former NATO commanders, intelligence chiefs, and senior government officials including Michèle Flournoy and General Tod Wolters. Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue hit a record $81.3 million, up 33% year-over-year. Recurring ACV was 97%. RPOs increased 361% year-over-year to $672 million. Backlog grew 216% year-over-year to $734 million. Full year 2026 revenue guidance stands at $297 million to $301 million. Bull case analyst fair value sits at $33.00 per share. The pullback from the $42.64 high to the current $26.96 level is Iran war risk-off combined with broader tech selling. The business case has not changed. The defense contracts have not been cancelled. The Nvidia partnership has not been walked back. The SHIELD IDIQ ceiling has not shrunk. The weekly chart shows two clean Fibonacci demand zones after a sharp parabolic move from the $9.91 base. 🟢 Buy Zone 1 ($20.93 area) 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the recent bull move and prior weekly support shelf. Stop: $1.63 below entry (7.788%) / $980 position Qty: 12 Risk/Reward Ratio: 10.81 Target: +84.185% ($17.62 area / $1,216.20) 🟢 Buy Zone 2 ($16.65 area) 0.5 Fibonacci level and the prior breakout base from late 2025. Stop: $1.63 below entry (9.790%) / $980 position Qty: 12 Risk/Reward Ratio: 15.94 Target: +84.185% ($38.55 area / $1,216.20) Key Levels: 🔑 Current Price: $26.96 🔑 Buy Zone 1: ~$20.93 🔑 Buy Zone 2: ~$16.65 🔑 52-Week High: $42.64 🔑 52-Week Low: $9.91 🔑 SHIELD IDIQ Ceiling: $151 billion 🔑 Q3 Revenue: $81.3M (+33% YoY) 🔑 RPO Growth: +361% YoY 🔑 Backlog: $734M (+216% YoY) 🔑 Bull Case Target: $33.00 🎯 Target: $38.55 (+84% / $1,216.20) ⚠️ Hard Stop Both Zones: $1.63 below entry The Iran war made Planet Labs famous. The $151 billion defense contract made it serious. The Nvidia partnership made it a platform. The pullback made it a trade. Two weekly buy zones are mapped.
NYSE:PLLong
by ConnectmyCurrency
Forget WTI! Hormuz shock opens up $150 Brent, per JPMOil markets are seeing unprecedented divergence, with the spread between Brent and WTI at an 11-year high of roughly $18. While WTI tracks relatively stable US shale supply, Brent is highly exposed to the escalating crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. With physical market benchmarks like Oman and Dubai futures skyrocketing to $136–$150, Brent is pulled higher, with JP Morgan suggesting Brent will catch up. We break down why Brent is currently the preferred asset for long oil exposure and the critical Fibonacci levels that determine the next major move. Key topics covered - Brent vs. WTI spread : The escalation of attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure (including Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars and Iran's retaliation against Qatari LNG) is stressing seaborne crude, causing Brent to outperform WTI. - Geopolitical whiplash : Intraday pullbacks, including the US Treasury considering the removal of sanctions on 140 million barrels of stranded Iranian oil and Israeli PM Netanyahu hinting the war could end faster than expected, did not take Brent in the red. - Macro Double Bottom : We chart Brent's massive structural breakout from the $58.00 base. After clearing the $77.00 neckline, the 100% measured move projection at $97.00 was achieved and is now acting as a critical support floor. - Overbought RSI : Overbought momentum indicators like the daily RSI could be ineffective and should be taken with a grain of salt during historic, headline-driven supply shocks. Brent scenarios & trade plan: - Bullish (Trend continuation) : The technical structure is bullish as long as prices remain above the $97 (measured move) to $100 support zone. The immediate hurdle is the 61.8% Fibonacci at $105. A clean break here targets the recent double top at $109 (161.8% Fib), with the next levels at the 200% extension of $117 and the 2022 high of $135, and the macro objective at $150. - Bearish (Headline fade) : If sudden de-escalation headlines hit the wires, we could see a sharp pullback from the $105 or $109 resistance levels. However, bears are facing an uphill challenge. Any short positions would likely target the $97 - $100 support cluster. The bullish macro setup is only invalidated if Brent breaks and closes firmly below $97. Are you trading the WTI-Brent spread or riding the breakout to $117? Share your thoughts in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:BRENTLong
by ThinkMarkets
UKOIL | Brent Oil Rebounds to $108, Is a Sharp Drop Still Ahead?By analyzing the #BrentOil chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that after the previous analysis, price initially entered a corrective phase but then resumed its bullish expansion once again. Following that pullback, strong buying pressure returned to the market and Brent Oil pushed higher, with price now trading around the $108 region. This continued upside move is largely supported by increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are adding pressure on global supply and driving oil prices higher in the short term. However, despite this bullish momentum, the core structure and scenario discussed in the previous analysis remain fully valid. From a technical perspective, there is still a clear liquidity void between the $73 and $76 region, formed during the previous impulsive rally. As markets tend to revisit and fill these imbalances, this zone remains a key downside target. For this reason, even with the current bullish sentiment, I still expect that Brent Oil could soon experience a sharp and aggressive drop, potentially moving toward the $76 – $73 region to fill this liquidity gap. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
TVC:UKOILShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
25
EUR/USD in wave 4 ahead of ECB rate decision: Selling rallies?EUR/USD remains bearish in a descending channel ahead of today's ECB meeting as the US dollar continues to flex its safe-haven dominance amid escalation in the Middle East. With US PPI data coming in hotter than expected and the Fed's dot plot showing a hawkish shift toward fewer rate cuts, the pressure on the euro remains heavy. All eyes are now on ECB President Christine Lagarde. With Eurozone services inflation running hot and oil prices surging, markets are actually pricing in rate hikes. But with European growth still dismal, any hawkish tilt from the ECB today runs the risk of triggering stagflation, which would be priced in following the immediate reaction post-ECB. Key topics covered - Fed's hawkish shift : Yesterday's hot US PPI data (3.4% vs 3.0% expected) and the Fed's dot plot are supporting dollar strength. Fed Chair Powell acknowledged a shift among policymakers toward fewer rate cuts due to energy-driven inflation risks. - ECB stagflation : The ECB is expected to hold rates today, but markets are already pricing in one and a half rate hikes by year-end. We explain why hiking rates into a stagnant, no-growth European economy reliant on imported energy is a recipe for stagflation, which caps the euro's upside. - Elliott Wave structure : We break down the macro technicals following the failed breakout at the 1.2082 peak. Having broken below the 100% Fibonacci support at 1.1597, the pair is currently tracking a Wave 4 correction within a descending channel. - Guideline of Alternation : The sharp Wave 2 correction (which hit the 50% retracement) suggests the upcoming Wave 4 pullback might be a choppy, sideways consolidation. We outline how to trade this potential range. EUR/USD scenarios & Trade Plan: - Bearish (Trend continuation) : As long as prices remain below the 1.1597 resistance, the technical bias is to "sell the rallies." If the pair completes its Wave 4 consolidation, the next leg lower (Wave 5) focuses on the Fibonacci cluster at 1.1393 (aligning with the 161.8% extension and the previous Wave E lows). Below that, the floor opens toward 1.1267. - Bullish (Short-term ECB spike) : If President Lagarde delivers a hawkish tilt, expect a short-term spike in the euro. However, due to the underlying stagflation risks, the spike might quickly fade. Buyers need to see a confirmed break and hold above the 1.1597 resistance to invalidate the bearish impulse and suggest a return to higher territory. Are you shorting the euro or awaiting a post-ECB rally? Share your thoughts in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
GBP/USD Forecast: Iran War Oil Surge ImpactThe US-Iran war unleashes sharp GBP/USD swings. Oil prices blast above $100 per barrel. Sterling slides fast on dollar safe-haven flows. It rebounds as inflation risks delay Bank of England cuts. Traders face clear energy-driven volatility in 2026. Geopolitics and Geostrategy Spark Immediate Pressure US and Israeli strikes hit Iranian energy sites hard. Hormuz shipping threats rise fast. Investors rush to the dollar for safety. The UK imports more energy than the US. Britain feels the shock quicker. GBP/USD drops to multi-week lows. Macroeconomics and Economics Expose Divergence Oil spikes fuel UK inflation fears aggressively. Markets slash near-term BoE rate cut bets. Sterling recovers ground quickly. US domestic production shields America. The Fed keeps flexibility. This gap keeps sterling under structural stress. Industry Trends and Business Models Adapt Rapidly North Sea operators capture higher revenues now. UK manufacturers absorb transport cost hikes. Energy firms hedge smarter with advanced contracts. Processors shift supply chains fast. These models limit some downside for sterling. Company Culture and Leadership Build Resilience UK banks promote agile decision-making daily. Leaders communicate policy shifts clearly. Strong cultures drive quick hedging strategies. Management teams navigate crises with discipline. This edge supports sterling confidence long-term. Innovation, High-Tech, Science and Patent Analysis Drive Strength Britain leads in fintech and climate tech patents. Over 2,200 startups file green energy innovations yearly. Science breakthroughs attract foreign capital. High-tech exports stabilize the pound. These assets counter pure commodity weakness. Technology and Cyber Security Mitigate Risks Advanced AI trading platforms reduce volatility spikes. UK cyber defenses protect critical energy infrastructure. Iran-linked threats stay contained effectively. Tech leadership prevents amplified shocks. Sterling holds firmer than peers in risk-off periods. GBP/USD direction hinges on Middle East escalation. Oil stabilization aids recovery. Traders watch US data and BoE signals closely. Expect sustained swings through 2026. Smart positioning wins in this environment.
Short
by the5erstrading
Rebuild After the Rubble $FLR Has a $25.5B Backlog!While everyone is panic-buying oil and missile defense stocks and crypto, smart money is quietly loading up on the reconstruction trade. Fluor Corporation is the sleeper play of the Iran-US war and the fundamentals just got a whole lot more compelling. Here is what just happened in the last two weeks that most retail traders have completely missed: Zacks Research upgraded FLR to a "Strong Buy" on February 19th. Citigroup raised their price target from $57 to $61 with a "Buy" rating on February 20th. Rough Draft Atlanta And the company itself just dropped a bombshell earnings report that sets up the next 12-18 months beautifully. Fluor posted full-year 2025 revenue of $15.5 billion and is sitting on a backlog of $25.5 billion, 81% of which is reimbursable. The company completed $754 million in share buybacks in 2025 and has $1.4 billion more planned for 2026. Investing.com CEO Jim Breuer said the company has "growing confidence in capturing significant EPC awards in 2026 and into 2027, supported by an improving capital spending environment and increasing client commitments." Investing.com Now add an Iran-US war into that equation. Fluor's Mission Solutions segment works directly with the US government and military providing site management, nuclear remediation, logistics, EPC, and life support for mission-critical US military facilities worldwide. CNN Every conflict creates reconstruction contracts. Fluor wins those contracts. Every single time. Just weeks ago, Fluor was awarded a major EPC contract to expand Centrus Energy's uranium enrichment facility in Ohio, covering engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning expected to create over 1,300 jobs. Markets Daily This is the kind of strategic government work that accelerates in wartime. I've mapped three tiered buy zones on the daily chart, each offering progressively better risk/reward as price pulls back into demand. 🟢 Buy Zone 1 Current Level ($50 area) Price is holding above both moving averages right now. Aggressive entry for those who want in immediately. Stop: $1.67 below entry (3.403%) / $450,000 position Qty: 29,940 Risk/Reward Ratio: 7.89 Target 1: +26.854% ($62.18 area) Target 2: +36.689% ($65.85 area) 🟢 Buy Zone 2 SMA 200 Retest ($47 area) Pullback to the 0.5 Fibonacci and SMA 200 confluence zone. Textbook higher low entry with a much cleaner R/R. Stop: $1.67 below entry (3.671%) / $450,000 position Qty: 29,940 Risk/Reward Ratio: 9.99 Target 1: +26.854% Target 2: +36.689% ($67.50 area) 🟢 Buy Zone 3 Deep Demand ($43-$44 area) The ultimate patient entry near the 0.236 Fibonacci level. If the broader market shakes out weak hands, this is where institutions step in hard. Stop: $1.67 below entry (3.977%) / $450,000 position Qty: 29,940 Risk/Reward Ratio: 15.83 Full Target: +62.967% ($68.43 area / Amount: $1,291,616) Key Levels: 🔑 Current Price: $50.89 🔑 SMA 20: $49.25 🔑 SMA 200: $45.45 🔑 52-Week High: $60.10 🎯 Target 1: $62.18 🎯 Target 2: $65.85 🎯 Full Extension: $68.43 🎯 Citigroup Price Target: $61.00 ⚠️ Hard Stop All Zones: $1.67 below entry A $25.5 billion backlog. $1.4 billion in buybacks coming. A Strong Buy upgrade from Zacks. A Citi price target raise. And now a war that puts government reconstruction contracts directly in Fluor's wheelhouse. This is not a meme trade. This is a fundamentally sound company with a technically clean chart sitting at a generational entry point. Be patient. Let price come to your zones. The war is just starting and so is Fluor's next leg up. Follow More Updates!
NYSE:FLRLong
by ConnectmyCurrency