Since the December stock market crash, the sentiments on long-term economy growth in investment community soured, so much so that pundits asserted that recession would strike US economy in late 2019. The political impasse over government shutdown exacerbate the selloff. After the Fed placated the stock market and business community in Jan 4, with Jarome Powell...
Above the 40 (January 4, 2019) – The Oversold Chronicles End As A Fed-Inspired Stock Market Explodes Higher
January 6, 2019 by Dr. Duru
AT40 = 20.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 13 days in oversold territory)
AT200 = 14.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs
VIX = 21.4
Short-term Trading Call:...
Daily Chart
1. Stochastics are in the same area and crossing as they had in SPY's previous drops. Both at the 280 Price level and the second drop started the big sell-off.
2. 21 Daily EMA (in Yellow) has been tested and possibly rejected (we must wait and see)
3. The light blue line is a very historic trendline gathered from connecting the hights in 2008 to...
News came out that the US and China are starting negotiation on trade dispute, and Asia markets are mostly up despite slump in US stock market overnight.
With regards to China, the economy is rapidly deteriorating , with December PMI flashing below 50, the level that defines contraction and expansion. The US is the largest export country for China, so that the...
I can see the hate mail now, but let's look at empirical evidence rather than emotional hypotheses.
I marked several indicators that confirm this reiteration of a decline that cold probe the 1510 level, the last untested breakout from the post-crisis era. Don't misconstrue me, I'm not not say thta's about to happen overnight, but if we are indeed entering a bear...
(latest free note in bio)
In "Dollar 'Crashes,' But You Should Worry About SPX," I pointed this and another key factor out (Nov 29):
"Look, the Fed will continue to tighten in December and, likely, two more hikes in 2019. Much of the problem may come around its balance sheet unwinding which causes the effect of additional tightening."
"And yesterday's 52-handle...
It is Christmas Eve and trading volume is thin... but XLK just crossed below the 200 weeks MA line.
If it will close the week this way, it will be another bearish sign for U.S stocks.
We are aggressively approaching our 200 week moving averages. Throughout this bear market / crash I will be watching very closely certain key levels to close trades out and to allow the price to firm up and then re-enter shorts after whatever bounce has occurred. There is no way to know for sure that a bounce will happen at any given level but whenever you have...
It appears we are destined to move lower. I wouldn't be a surprise to see a bounce back to resistance (green arrow) before extending down to the 127.2% extension of the major move this year. Stay protected!
I'm short via long January puts, and even bought some SPXS in the afterhours the other day since I had closed my previous put position.
