... to the Dec 23rd 130/135 for a .25 credit.
I previously rolled to the Dec 16th expiry with the intention of setting up an iron fly there by selling a put side against. Unfortunately, I set up the short put vert (which I sold for .43 cr) in the Dec 23rd expiry, so at that point, I had a weird ass setup -- a Dec 16th 128/131 short call vert with a Dec 23rd...
Going directional here -- a rarity for me ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 47%
Max Profit: $114
Max Loss: $86
Break Even: 133.14
Notes: Here, I'm looking for IWM to weaken rolling into FOMC/rate hikes. However, if price breaks to the top side of the setup, I'll roll out for duration and credit by "flipping" the spread into a short put vertical ... .
Notes on chart. As per Bulkowski ivhs guidelines, this looks almost like a textbook pattern. As long as 2195 is defended as support, the ES and SPX have an upside bias. See the patternsite dot com (inverse head and shoulders) for source information.
After having taken the short put side of this "troubled" iron condor off for near worthless (.05), I rolled the call side out another week and improved the spread by a strike. I filled this for a .57 db, and tomorrow I'll look at selling a setup to finance this roll and then look at its scratch point ... .
Truth be told, I'm not a big fan of low vol strategies such as calendars and diagonals, but am going to putz with one here.
From a trade management standpoint, the notion is to take off the short call at or near worthless or roll it to the Jan expiry for additional credit, resulting in a Jan 20th 136.5/140 short call vertical. You then manage the setup as you...
After 15 days of gains the RUT finally broke its uptrend and is very overbought on the daily chart.
First target for shorts is the .236 Fib level at 1300/2. If it holds that level and consolidates it may prove a good spot to be long.
Watching the major pivots is fun. IWM has been in a general uptrend for a long time. Buying the pullbacks at pivots will be my overall approach. Shorting this will be very tricky so I don't recommend. Good luck to us treasure hunters.
Here, I'm opening a short call vertical to pair with a short put vertical that I originally put on as a delta hedge. IWM, after all, is looking overextended, toppy here, and I want to have more short delta in place for my overall IWM position if the election "exuberance" begins to wear thin.
I filled the spread for a .52 ($52)/contract credit and will look to...
... to Dec 9th 124/127/127/131 Iron Fly for a .47 ($47)/contract credit.
I figured I had to do something here to improve the prospects of this broken iron condor.
I first rolled the short call vert side from the 116.5/119.5 short call vert to the 127/131. The only way to get a credit from this intra-expiry roll was to widen the spread by one strike.
And then...
