Things are getting ugly economically and globally. Nearly everything soured very recently, and notably so. Sentiment is the only remaining silver lining.
Fascinating things are happening left and right.
Goodluck next week gentlemen,
Last Week's Post:
Much like retail (XRT), small caps (IWM/$RUT) are at critical support. If the support breaks then we're looking at Dec lows for next support.
Weird thing about small caps, there are some dividend stocks I think are undervalued and some that are waaay overvalued like FC and WK.
With the $ES and $NQ rebounding off the 200-dma and at the 61.8% retracement level, the big question is this another BTFD moment or part of a bigger move down?
The $RTY might provide a clue here with a breakdown from a wedge and a retest of the wedge lower boundary which is also marked by a SSR resistance. Odds are for a CD leg down for the Russell 2K and...
M (87/58) announces earnings this week and has the most appropriate rank/implied volatility metrics for a contraction play.
Pictured here is a narrow short strangle in the September monthly that is almost a short straddle, set up this way primarily because M is trading at 19.43, which Is smack dab in the middle of the short strikes. It's paying 2.25...
Wild week. Volatility is picking up, $57.25 expected move seems low given that we moved $100 on Monday alone.
No clue what's going to happen next week. Leaning bearish. Bond market seems extended. Stock market has no incentive to invest.
Your money carries you further in heavier risk environments.
Last Week's Post ($58.5 Expected...
Gravity Point at $2911 looks like an objective Long. Short term, this is oversold, 5 days down in a row.
Plan on exiting the long at the Red Box. I could see another shorting opportunity if we got to $3000 again.
Expected move increased by $20 after last week had a 3 standard deviation move down, breaking the trend we had built.
Last major week of earnings...
IWM ($RUT) forming a pennant, just a reminder that small caps plunged first last fall.
The weakness in small caps makes it hard for me to get bullish on the market though futures look to be setting up for another pump and dump tonight.
Currently we are in a ABCDE formation down. Next target is 141 USD, where it will make a corection up to 151 USD for the (e).
In my last post i noted that transportations are also expecting a correction down, which should take IWM with it. Therefore the larger target of IWM is 112 USD. Best case Scenario we are looking at a target of 99 USD.
Welcome to Earnings Season!
Google and Amazon report earnings on the 25th after the market. Both will highly influence Friday's trading session.
Expected Move for the week is $41.25 +/- which is a 25% increase w/w of the expected move so put on your seatbelt.
Netflix missed horribly.
Fed cutting interest rates will be negative for the financials XLF.
Think we're going into a melt up. Powell all but confirmed a rate cut. Last week I mentioned watching Bonds closely, and that played out well.
I've had a long term target from 2017 coming into play here, we'll see what happens and if technicals remain relevant over longer time frames.
Earnings next week can shift the narrative either direction. I think much has...