Japanese-yen
USD/JPY: Japan’s Snap Election Opportunities Japan is holding a snap election this Sunday, triggered by a scandal within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), despite a general election not being due until late 2025.
The LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics for all but four of the last 65 years, has seen its popularity plummet. In June, its poll numbers hit their lowest point this century.
While some polls predict the party could cling to its majority, bolstered by a fragmented opposition, fresh data from the Nikkei suggests a different outcome. The business daily warns that the LDP may fall short of securing a majority, a result that could lead to political upheaval not seen since 2009.
Pullbacks in USD/JPY have been lessening since early October, and after clearing the 150.00 mark, the next targets for the bulls may be the 200-Day Moving Average and the range between 150.90 and 151.10. Amid a snap election, 152.00 is also a possible target. If the pair experiences another pullback, traders might consider a mid-point of current price action as a potential resistance level.
USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week!USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week (Sept 23-29, 2024)
As we look ahead to the coming week, USDJPY appears poised for a potential slightly bullish bias. This outlook is based on a confluence of fundamental factors and current market conditions that favor USD strength relative to the Japanese yen. Below is a breakdown of key drivers supporting this outlook, along with insights that could influence price action.
1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance
One of the key drivers for a potential bullish bias in USDJPY next week is the persistent hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Although the Fed opted to pause rate hikes in September, policymakers have indicated that they are open to further tightening if inflationary pressures persist. Recent inflation data in the U.S. showed a slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), suggesting that the Fed may still consider additional rate hikes in 2024. Higher U.S. interest rates would continue to bolster the U.S. dollar, driving demand for USDJPY as traders seek yield differentials.
2. Bank of Japan's Dovish Policy
In stark contrast to the Fed, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy, including negative interest rates and yield curve control. The BoJ's dovish approach continues to weigh on the Japanese yen, especially in an environment where other major central banks are tightening monetary policy. While some market participants expect the BoJ to consider policy changes in the future, there have been no concrete signals indicating a shift in the near term. This widening policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ is a key factor supporting a bullish outlook for USDJPY.
3. Safe Haven Demand Waning
The yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of global market volatility. However, recent market stability, coupled with optimism surrounding global growth prospects, has reduced demand for the yen as a haven. As risk sentiment improves, investors are more likely to allocate capital into higher-yielding assets, which could further weaken the yen.
Moreover, geopolitical tensions that previously supported yen demand have eased slightly, making USDJPY more likely to drift higher in a low-risk environment.
4. U.S. Treasury Yields Rising
Another factor contributing to the bullish bias in USDJPY is the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Higher yields on U.S. government bonds make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors, adding upward pressure to USDJPY. The correlation between USDJPY and U.S. Treasury yields is well-documented, and as yields rise, so too does the currency pair. Traders will be closely monitoring U.S. economic data next week, including durable goods orders and GDP figures, to gauge the potential for further yield increases.
5. Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels
From a technical perspective, USDJPY is trading within a well-defined range, but with a slight bullish bias as long as it holds above key support at the 147.50 level. A break above the psychological 150.00 level could open the door to further upside, with resistance seen at 151.50. On the downside, failure to hold above 147.50 could lead to a test of lower levels around 146.00. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are currently neutral but leaning slightly toward overbought territory, suggesting room for further gains before a pullback.
6. U.S. Economic Data Next Week
Next week, market participants will pay close attention to several high-impact economic reports out of the U.S., including the Durable Goods Orders on Tuesday and GDP Growth on Thursday. Positive readings on these metrics could fuel further gains in USDJPY, reinforcing the bullish bias. Conversely, any disappointing data could dampen USD strength and lead to some consolidation in the pair.
Conclusion
Given the combination of hawkish signals from the Fed, the BoJ's ongoing dovish stance, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and waning safe-haven demand, USDJPY appears to have a slightly bullish bias heading into next week. Traders should watch for any shifts in risk sentiment or unexpected economic data that could alter this outlook. The key levels to watch are 147.50 for support and 150.00 for resistance.
Keywords: USDJPY forecast, USDJPY bullish, USDJPY analysis, Bank of Japan policy, Federal Reserve rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields, Japanese yen, safe-haven demand, forex trading, USDJPY technical analysis, USDJPY key levels, USDJPY next week, trading USDJPY.
Japanese Yen May Face A RecoveryJapanese Yen has been very weak since start of the year, but we can see a three-wave A-B-C corrective decline on Japanese Yen Futures chart, which can be now completed by current sharp reversal up above important trendline. So, we believe that Japanese yen may now face a recovery in the upcoming days/weeks, maybe months, just be aware of short-term pullbacks.
2022/7/7 16:00 EUR/JPY analysePivot Point: 138.0
Currently: Consolidating at this 140.0 level , its next support zone is at 141.0
Reaction: Resisted at 137.5 and retraced back to 137.0
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USDJPY | SHORT SET-UPEntry Range: 113.930 - 114.010
Avg. Entry: 113.987 (RRR: 2)
1st. Profit Target: 113.777
Stop Loss: 114.095
HOW TO ENTER MY TRADES
1. Ladder your entries.
You'll want to ladder place your orders exponentially within the Entry Range to the point your RRR is atleast 1.5 if fully filled.
2. Only first touches are valid.
If price is rebounding back into the entry zone after either the profit target or stop loss was hit the entry zone is no longer valid
What we have see on USDJPY, It will be fall to the 112 areaHey friends, and trader
We forecast downside movement for the USDJPY for several reasons
1. USD is overbought and over-priced in 2 months ago
2. JPY is oversold and this is a good and cheap price for this safe-haven currency
3. Smart buyers are buying in these prrices.
4. As you see in the picture, The non-commercial traders usually are buyers in these prices cause the JPY is being valuable in these prices.
5. Buy trend line is broken in the H4 time frame
so if you are a swing trader or long-term trader it's a good opportunity for you.
Good Lock, Wish you money
With respect
Ali Sabbaghi
ziwox.com
Massive drop aheadMonthly chart. Breakdown is obvious and confirmed. Thin CPR predicts massive volatility and it is rather clear - to the downside. Using DM projection we should end at yearly S3. DM bullish projection does not provide any space for any volatile move even if we would make a bullish breakout (all DM qualifiers missing).
Top Absolute Correlation 1 month
1 EURJPY - SGDJPY 89.5%
2 EURJPY - EURSGD 86.1%
3 EURJPY - EURCHF 82.1%
4 EURJPY - CADJPY 81.3%
5 EURJPY - EURUSD 78.7%
6 EURJPY - USDPLN -77.8%
7 EURJPY - CHFJPY 76.4%
8 EURJPY - USDCZK -75.9%
9 EURJPY - NOKJPY 74.1%
10 EURJPY - XAGEUR -70.8%
Top Absolute Correlation 1 week
1 EURJPY - SEKJPY 84.7%
2 EURJPY - USDCNH -80.4%
3 EURJPY - SGDJPY 78.1%
4 EURJPY - NZDJPY 77.2%
5 EURJPY - NZDCAD 72.4%
6 EURJPY - HK50.n 68.3%
7 EURJPY - HK50 68.0%
8 EURJPY - GBPJPY 68.0%
9 EURJPY - AUDJPY 67.8%
10 EURJPY - GBPCHF 66.7%
USDJPYI really believe that this is a bear flag and this is the final touch at the resistance trendline before we can see some downside movement in this pair and the Elliott Wave corrective pattern ABCDE is officially done for now and we should see 5 impulse waves to the downside.
If the price manages to brake the support trendline it will continue to fall even more.
The first area of support from here is the 108.465 area where we could see many confluent price actions in that region.
A close below the 109.70 would signal to the bears to activate their short positions.
- The MACD Histogram starts to level off and I anticipate it to curve to the downside soon enough.
- The RSI is not in the overbought region but I anticipate it to curve to the downside if the bearish momentum continues.
!! Make sure that you make your own analysis before entering a trade and always be cautious in the market.
!! This is not financial advice and it should not be taken as such.
EURJPY needs a confirmation candle before tradingEURJPY is still on the bearish formation, however it doesn't mean that you should sell because I said it is overall bearish. What I am trying to say is this pair needs to have a confirmation candle before trading, because you are gambling if you are just trading without knowing what you are saying. Hopefully news tomorrow will give this pair some insights which will it go for the week.
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Ueki Corp - points to significant Japanese equity undervaluationShort term - short (but not in a position so just waiting),
Medium + LT term long.
Why? Well a couple of reasons. Despite the retraction in sales and profits in the construction industry in Japan as evident from Ueki's results there are some rather signs of value.
I haven't even started a full accounting of undervalued Japanese stocks yet but can see that I will likely buy because:
- Ueki's market cap, for example, is almost 63% lower than its net assets. Compared to U.S. equities that is comparably significantly undervalued. As at December 2018 the average S&P 500 price to book ratio was 2.8 (and this was AFTER the December price drop). Compare that to a P/B value for Ueki of 0.35. i.e. The Company could be liquidated now and would return significantly more than the current price per share to investors.
- Investment Banks are entering long the market - seeing the market as oversold: www.cnbc.com I also read an article a while back that said Morgan Stanley is advising clients to exit US equities which will cause many to look elsewhere in the US and overseas for better value risk adjusted returns: www.investopedia.com I'm not sure if that is the one though,
- Likely due to having been in a 30 year bear market, the Japanese equity market likely has, on average, less downside risk as compared to US stocks: www.bloomberg.com
- My TA points towards a significant appreciation of the JPY vs the AUD, USD, and EUR. If this happens, any returns will magnified. Despite its significant debt load (230% of GDP+) Japanese citizens are willing to take a financial hit buying government bonds with negative interest rates in order to support their Country.
- There are likely better, if not more undervalued, equities out there than Ueki. I feel encouraged to search for some deals.
Thanks for viewing