J.D. Vance and the market consequences of successionJ.D. Vance’s sudden rise to the Presidency could mark a dramatic shift for financial markets if he breaks from his current boss’s stance on how to govern an economy.
Before being picked as Trump’s VP, Vance was known for his opposition to corporate monopolies. In the past, he criticised the power of firms like Google, Apple, and Amazon, calling for antitrust enforcement. A sudden shift to a Vance-led administration could crash markets that have priced in continued support for the “Magnificent Seven,” who have driven much of the S&P 500’s recent performance. Ultimately, In the long run, however, breaking up dominant players can spark greater innovation (and potential stock gains), as the incumbents lose their ability to acquire and bury emerging competition.
Meanwhile, one of the defining trends of Trump’s second term has been the significant decline of the U.S. dollar. A change in leadership, especially one less inclined toward isolationist policies and piling on national debt, could potentially strengthen the dollar in the short term. Gold might also take a hit and find a medium-term price level below $4000.
