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USDJPY Real Price Levels🎯 USDJPY TECHNICAL DEEP DIVE: WEEKLY FORECAST NOV 10-14, 2025 Close Price: 153.419 (8th Nov 2025, 12:54 UTC+4) | Analysis Period: Intraday Swing Trading Framework 📊 MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS OVERVIEW This comprehensive analysis covers 5M, 15M, 30M, 1H, 4H & 1D timeframes using advanced Elliott Wave Theory, Japanese Candlestick patterns, Dow Theory, Wyckoff accumulation/distribution phases, harmonic ratios, and Gann principles. USDJPY exhibits critical support/resistance levels with significant breakout potential for the week ahead. 🔴 KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS & SUPPORT/RESISTANCE ZONES Major Resistance: 155.200, 154.800, 154.120 | Minor Resistance: 153.950, 153.700 Major Support: 152.500, 151.800, 150.950 | Minor Support: 153.100, 152.950 Pivot Point: 153.419 (Current equilibrium) | Critical confluence zone for breakout confirmation ⚡ ELLIOTT WAVE STRUCTURE & IMPULSE IDENTIFICATION Current analysis suggests USDJPY is completing Wave 4 consolidation within a larger 5-wave impulse cycle. The formation of lower highs and higher lows creates a classic triangle pattern signaling Wave 5 breakout potential. Confirmation threshold: Break above 154.120 (5M-15M) = Wave 5 initiation with targets 155.850 . 💹 CANDLESTICK PATTERN FORMATIONS (Multi-Timeframe) 4H Timeframe: Engulfing bearish pattern → Bullish Hammer forming at support | Rising Wedge rejection signals correction bounce 1H Timeframe: Bullish Flag within ascending channel | VWAP acting as dynamic support | RSI oversold bounce confirmed 30M Timeframe: Inverted Cup & Handle pattern (bullish reversal) | Breakout target 154.500 with volume confirmation 15M Timeframe: Bearish Pennant consolidation + Double Bottom forming | Reversal hammer at 152.950 support 5M Timeframe: Rapid oscillation between 153.200-153.600 | High-probability entry zones after RSI oversold/overbought extremes 🎲 DOW THEORY: TREND CONFIRMATION FRAMEWORK Primary Trend: Uptrend intact - Higher highs/higher lows maintained on 4H-1D. Secondary Trend: Consolidation phase within established uptrend. Tertiary Trend (Intraday): Mixed ranging behavior with increased volatility zones Dow principles confirm trend strength remains bullish while respecting key support. Volume analysis shows institutional accumulation near 153.000-153.200 levels (Wyckoff accumulation phase). 📈 WYCKOFF METHOD: ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS Accumulation Phase: Spring pattern near 152.500 broke support temporarily, indicating institutional absorption Mark-Up Phase: 4H-1D showing absorption of selling pressure with higher closes (bullish distribution) Distribution Signals: Watch for climax volume near resistance 155.200 (potential reversal trigger) Volume Profile: VWAP resistance 154.800 + Bollinger Band upper band 155.100 = Critical confluence rejection zone 🌊 HARMONIC PATTERNS & FIBONACCI RATIOS USDJPY exhibits Gartley Pattern (0.618 retracement) structure: D-point completion at 153.419 creates potential reversal entry. Fibonacci extensions suggest: 161.8% = 156.200 (Wave 5 target), 127.2% = 155.450 (conservative target). Harmonic Ratio Confluence: Inverse Head & Shoulders formation at 1D level with neckline 153.950 breakout = 261.8% extension targeting 156.500. 📐 GANN THEORY: PRICE-TIME ANGLES & GEOMETRIC ANGLES Gann 45° angle (1:1 angle) intersects near 154.300 on 4H timeframe, creating strong support/resistance confluence. Gann Square angles: 25%, 45%, 75% angles all converge near resistance cluster 154.500-155.000 (timing window Nov 12-13). 🔧 TECHNICAL INDICATORS SYNTHESIS RSI (14 Period): - 1H: 35-40 zone (oversold bounce setup) → Entry signal above 45 - 4H: 48-52 zone (neutral) → Divergence warning if resistance rejected - 1D: 55-60 zone (bullish bias maintained) → Avoid shorting from these levels Bollinger Bands (20,2): - 4H: Price consolidating near middle band (153.500) | Upper band 155.100 = resistance - 1H: Compression phase ending (volatility breakout imminent) | Band width narrowing 60-70 pips - Entry Strategy: Long breakout above upper band with confirmation (Volume + RSI) VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): - Daily VWAP: 153.850 (dynamic support) | Institutional buying zone - 4H VWAP: 153.620 (intraday equilibrium) | Mean reversion trades from this level - Best trade setup: Long entries on VWAP bounce + oversold RSI + Bullish candlestick Moving Averages (EMA/SMA): - EMA 50 (4H): 153.200 ✅ Acting as support | Below = trend change warning - EMA 200 (1D): 152.100 | Strong support floor (only break = major sell signal) - SMA 20 (1H): 153.450 | Intraday resistance/support oscillator - Golden Cross Status: EMA 50 > EMA 200 confirmed bullish alignment on 1D Ichimoku Cloud (9,26,52): - Cloud Top: 154.200 | Cloud Bottom: 152.800 (current price above cloud = bullish) - Tenkan (Red Line 9): 153.600 | Kijun (Blue Line 26): 153.800 | Bullish alignment - Chikou Span: Above price (bullish signal) | Lagging indicator confirms uptrend - Cloud breakout target: Above 154.200 confirms sustained strength to 155.500 ⏰ INTRADAY SWING TRADE SETUP (5M-30M Timeframes) ENTRY SIGNALS (Next Week): PRIMARY LONG ENTRY: Break 153.950 with close above 154.100 (RSI >45, Volume >Avg) | Target 154.600 (1:1.5 R/R) AGGRESSIVE ENTRY: VWAP bounce from 153.620 (5M hammer) + Bollinger Band middle band + RSI oversold | Stop 153.450 CONTRARIAN SHORT: Rejection above 155.100 BB upper band (after overbought spike) | Target 154.200 support SCALP ENTRY: 5M Bollinger Band squeeze breakout (width <20 pips) → Both directions tradeable with tight 15-pip stops 🎯 EXIT & PROFIT TAKING STRATEGY 1st Target (Short-term): 154.600 - Take 30% profit (quick scalp win, trailing stop above entry) 2nd Target (Swing): 155.100-155.200 - Take 50% profit (Bollinger Band + Harmonic resistance confluence) 3rd Target (Trend): 155.850 - Take final 20% (Elliott Wave 5 target + Fibonacci 161.8%) Stop Loss Protocol: Max loss 30 pips below entry | Trail stops by 15-pips once +50 pips profit locked 🚨 REVERSAL IDENTIFICATION & BREAKOUT CONFIRMATION BULLISH REVERSALS (HIGH PROBABILITY): Double Bottom at 152.950 (Nov 10 likely) + Inverted Head & Shoulders confirmation on 1H = Reversal signal. Price closes above 153.950 on higher volume = Breakout confirmation. BEARISH REVERSALS: Only if price breaks below EMA 50 (153.200) on 4H close + RSI divergence + Volume spike = Reversal to 152.500 support zone. 🌪️ VOLATILITY FORECAST & OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD ZONES Expected ATR (4H): 80-120 pips | Increased volatility Nov 11-12 (BOJ economic data risk) OVERBOUGHT RSI (>70): Expect pullback from 155.100-155.200 resistance zones OVERSOLD RSI (<30): Bounce probability 85% from 152.950-153.100 support cluster Bollinger Band Width Expansion: Volatility breakout imminent when width >100 pips on 1H 📋 TRADING PLAN SUMMARY (NOV 10-14, 2025) Week Outlook: Bullish bias maintained with correction bounces creating optimal entry zones. Most probable scenario: Consolidation break above 154.120 → Wave 5 impulse toward 155.850 by end of week. Monday-Tuesday: Watch VWAP bounces + RSI oversold condition recovery | Entry zone 153.200-153.600 Wednesday-Thursday: Breakout attempt resistance 154.100-154.500 | Major breakout window with elevated volatility Friday: Trending day likely with follow-through buying | Potential final leg to 155.500-155.850 target ⚙️ RISK MANAGEMENT ESSENTIALS Position Size: Max 2% risk per trade | Stop Loss: 25-30 pips | Profit Target: 75-150 pips (3:1 - 5:1 R/R minimum). Never risk more than account 2% on single setup. Use trailing stops once +50 pips profit locked in. 🏆 CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS FOR THIS WEEK ✅ Confirmation of Ichimoku Cloud breakout above 154.200 ✅ Daily close above 154.100 with volume confirmation ✅ RSI divergence bounce from oversold zones (5M-1H timeframes) ✅ VWAP acting as institutional support (accumulation ongoing) ✅ Harmonic pattern completion at D-point (current price 153.419) ❌ INVALIDATION SIGNALS (STAY OUT OR REVERSE): ❌ Break below EMA 50 (153.200) on 4H daily close ❌ Close below 152.950 support (major bearish signal) ❌ RSI breakdown below 30 + Volume spike = Trend reversal initiated ❌ Bollinger Band inversion (compression to expansion to compression = exhaustion) 📲 HASHTAGS FOR COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT #USDJPY #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrade #Intraday #ElliottWave #FibonacciRatio #DayTradingStrategy #JapaneseYen #BreakoutTrade #RSI #BollingerBands #VolumeProfile #GannTheory #WyckoffMethod #HarmonicPatterns #TradingView #ForexSignals #Forex #FXTrading #CurrencyTrading #TradeSetup #PriceAction #ChartAnalysis #TA #TechnicalIndicators #CryptoTrading #MoneyManagement #RiskManagement #EditorsPicks #TradingCommunity #WeeklyForecast 📌 DISCLAIMER This analysis is for educational purposes and technical study only. Not financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence. Past performance ≠ future results. Use proper risk management and position sizing. Trade at your own risk. ✨ ANALYSIS GENERATED: November 8, 2025 | FORECAST PERIOD: Nov 10-14, 2025 | ASSET: USDJPY (Spot Forex)
by sunya
USD/JPY – Potential Short Setup Near Intraday ResistanceThe USD/JPY pair is showing early signs of weakness after a limited rebound, with price currently testing the 0.00650 resistance area on the H1 timeframe. This zone coincides with a short-term supply region and aligns closely with the 9-period EMA, suggesting a potential pullback setup. Key Technical Zones Immediate resistance: 0.00650 – 0.00652 Major resistances: 0.00656 and 0.00660 Support zone: 0.00647 – 0.00646 Technical Outlook Price structure remains bearish overall, forming lower highs and lower lows since last week. The minor bullish correction appears to be losing momentum as candles reject near the dynamic EMA and prior structure high. If sellers defend the 0.00650–0.00652 zone successfully, a move toward 0.00647 or even deeper into 0.00644 is likely. Trading Plan Sell zone: 0.00650 – 0.00652 Stop loss: Above 0.00653 Take profit: 0.00647 – 0.00644 Invalidation: A confirmed breakout and retest above 0.00653 may shift the bias back to short-term bullish, targeting 0.00656–0.00660. The pair remains in a corrective phase, and momentum indicators continue to favor sellers while below resistance. Traders should watch for confirmation via bearish engulfing or rejection wicks before entering. Follow for more precise intraday setups and remember to save this analysis if you find it useful.
by Henrybillion
USD/JPY Technical AnalysisUSD/JPY Technical Analysis — Testing Key Resistance Zone Ahead of Potential Reversal After several sessions of sideways consolidation, USD/JPY has finally shown a breakout from the accumulation range near 0.00650, approaching a key resistance zone around 0.00654–0.00656. On the 1-hour chart, price structure indicates a retest of previous supply, where sellers previously stepped in aggressively. This aligns with the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement from the last swing high to low and coincides with the EMA cluster, suggesting strong confluence resistance. If price fails to break above the 0.00654 resistance, a short-term pullback toward 0.00650 or even 0.00647 remains likely. However, a clear breakout and 1H candle closure above 0.00656 would confirm bullish continuation targeting 0.00660–0.00662 next. Key Technical Levels Resistance: 0.00654 – 0.00656 Support: 0.00650 / 0.00647 Trend Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish short term Trading Strategy: Scenario 1 (Sell setup): Look for bearish rejection near 0.00654 with confirmation candle → target 0.00650 / 0.00647. Scenario 2 (Buy setup): Wait for a confirmed breakout and retest above 0.00656 → target 0.00660 / 0.00662. RSI on lower timeframes is approaching overbought levels, so short-term corrections are possible before any sustained move higher. Price action today will be crucial to determine whether bulls have enough momentum to break through the upper resistance. Stay patient and let the market confirm direction before taking entries. If you find this analysis helpful, remember to follow for more daily strategies and updates.
by Henrybillion
JPY/USD – Testing Supply Zone After Short-Term RallyJPY/USD has recently shown a short-term bullish impulse, breaking out from a narrow consolidation range near 0.00648 – 0.00650. The pair is now approaching a key supply zone around 0.00653, which previously acted as a rejection area on the 1-hour chart. This current move represents a potential liquidity grab or retest of prior structure before a possible continuation lower. The overall structure remains bearish unless the price can sustain above 0.00654. Key levels to watch: Immediate resistance: 0.00653 – 0.00654 (supply zone / short-term rejection area) Support: 0.00648 – 0.00647 (breakout base) Next downside target: 0.00644 (previous low / liquidity pool) Trading strategy: If price rejects the 0.00653–0.00654 zone with bearish confirmation on the 1H timeframe, sellers may re-enter targeting 0.00647. A clear break below this level could extend momentum toward 0.00644. However, a confirmed close above 0.00654 would invalidate the short bias and open the path toward 0.00658. Technical summary: Bias: Bearish below 0.00654 Setup: Retest of supply zone Tools used: Supply–demand, breakout-retest, structure analysis The next few candles will determine whether this is a true breakout reversal or simply a smart-money retracement before continuation downward. Follow for more daily setups and institutional-style market breakdowns.
by Henrybillion
USD/JPY Technical OutlookUSD/JPY Technical Outlook – Bearish Pressure Remains Dominant On the 1H timeframe, USD/JPY continues to respect the descending trendline that has been guiding price action since mid-October. Every test of this structure has resulted in a clear rejection, confirming ongoing selling momentum. Currently, price is consolidating below 0.00648, showing weak bullish reaction after a strong impulsive drop. The EMA curve (purple line) acts as dynamic resistance, aligning closely with the descending trendline — a confluence zone that traders should watch carefully. Key Levels Resistance: 0.00649 – 0.00652 (trendline & EMA rejection zone) Support: 0.00645 – 0.00643 (previous low and liquidity zone) Trading Strategy Scenario 1 – Sell on pullback: If price retests the 0.00649–0.00652 resistance zone and fails to close above the trendline, short entries may be considered with a target at 0.00645, extended towards 0.00643. Scenario 2 – Breakout confirmation: A clear break and close above 0.00652 (with volume) could invalidate the short bias, opening the door for a corrective move toward 0.00658. Technical Bias The market structure remains bearish with lower highs and lower lows intact. As long as price stays under the descending trendline, the probability favors continuation to the downside. 📈 Remember to follow for more daily insights and advanced trading strategies. Save this analysis if you find it useful for your setup planning.
by Henrybillion
USD/JPY – Trend Exhaustion or Start of a Reversal Phase?After several consecutive distribution ranges and bearish impulses, USD/JPY is showing early signs of structural recovery on the H1 timeframe. The market has formed a series of consolidation blocks followed by sharp breakdowns, but recent price action suggests that the downward momentum is losing strength. Technical Outlook: Structure: The pair has broken out of the most recent consolidation box around 0.00654 – 0.00656, forming a short-term bullish leg. Trendlines: The prior descending structure has been violated as price created a higher low – the first hint of a potential reversal setup. Support zones: 0.00655 – key intraday demand zone (former breakout level). 0.00652 – secondary support aligning with the previous accumulation area. Resistance zones: 0.00660 – short-term target; first test of structure liquidity. 0.00663 – extended target, potential reaction area for profit-taking. Momentum indicators: RSI is hovering above 55, showing early bullish pressure after long consolidation. EMAs are flattening, signaling the end of the bearish dominance. Trading Strategy: - Buy setup (continuation scenario): Entry: 0.00656 – 0.00657 (retest zone) Stop Loss: below 0.00653 Take Profit 1: 0.00660 | Take Profit 2: 0.00663 Risk/Reward: approx. 1:2.5 Bias: bullish continuation after a clean breakout. - Sell setup (only if structure breaks down again): Entry: below 0.00652 Target: 0.00648 Stop: above 0.00656 Summary: The overall bias remains neutral-to-bullish for the short term. A confirmed H1 close above 0.00660 will validate the first bullish breakout after several failed recovery attempts. Traders should watch for a potential pullback to 0.00656 before any upward continuation. If price sustains above this level, the next bullish leg could extend toward 0.00663–0.00665, aligning with the previous structure’s mid-range. Stay alert — this could mark the start of a trend reversal phase for USD/JPY after weeks of compression. If you find this analysis helpful, save it and follow for daily trading setups and strategies.
by Henrybillion
4
USD/JPY – Bearish Channel Still Intact, Price Faces Resistance NUSD/JPY continues to trade inside a clear descending channel, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows on the 15-minute chart. The pair is currently testing the upper boundary of this bearish structure near 0.00655, which also aligns with the short-term EMA resistance and previous intraday supply zone. If price fails to break and close above 0.00656, a rejection from this level could trigger another move down toward 0.00653 – 0.00652, where the lower channel line and Fibonacci 0.618 retracement coincide. Trading strategy: Sell zone: 0.00654 – 0.00655 (wait for bearish confirmation candle) Take profit: 0.00653 – 0.00652 Stop loss: Above 0.00656 RSI remains below 50, indicating weak bullish momentum and supporting the continuation of the current downtrend. A clean break above 0.00656 would invalidate this short-term setup and may open the door for a short squeeze toward 0.00658. Stay alert for volatility as the U.S. session opens — this zone could decide the next intraday direction. Follow for more daily trade setups and strategy insights.
by Henrybillion
USDJPY – Cup and Handle Formation Signals Potential Bullish BreaUSDJPY – Cup and Handle Formation Signals Potential Bullish Breakout The pair has been forming a classic Cup and Handle pattern on the 1-hour chart — a structure that often precedes continuation to the upside. After an extended rounding bottom from October 4–15, buyers have gradually regained control, pushing price back toward the neckline around 0.006690. - Technical Outlook Pattern: Cup and Handle Current price: 0.006679 Neckline resistance: 0.006690 Key support: 0.006620 – 0.006640 Target zone after breakout: 0.006750 – 0.006780 If price breaks and holds above 0.006690, it could confirm bullish continuation, aligning with the measured target from the cup’s depth. However, a temporary pullback toward the handle region (0.006640) would be healthy before a potential breakout. - Trading Strategy Aggressive entry: Buy on breakout and retest of 0.006690 → TP 0.006750 / 0.006780 Conservative entry: Wait for pullback to 0.006640 – 0.006650 and bullish rejection candle → same TP levels Stop-loss: Below 0.006610 Momentum indicators (EMA alignment and short-term RSI recovery) continue to support the bullish bias, though intraday volatility may trigger false breakouts. Stay patient and disciplined — confirmation above the neckline is the key to validating this pattern. Follow for more precise intraday trading structures and daily strategy updates.
by Henrybillion
USDJPY – Bullish Correction in Progress | H1 Chart AnalysisAfter a long bearish impulse, USDJPY has completed a double-bottom structure near 0.00659. The market has since broken the previous short-term downtrend line and is forming a higher low — suggesting a possible start of a bullish correction. - Technical Setup: Entry Zone: 0.00660 – 0.00659 Target (TP): 0.00668 Stop Loss: 0.00659 Risk-to-Reward: ≈ 1 : 3 - Outlook: Price action shows a clear CHoCH (Change of Character) and early bullish momentum. A confirmed rejection from the highlighted demand zone could signal continuation toward short-term resistance at 0.00668 – 0.00670. Traders should monitor liquidity around the neckline before entering new longs.
by Henrybillion
JPY Analysis & Outlook: Friday’s Options Flow Tells the StoryFriday’s trading on the options market revealed two key developments in JPY: 🔸 Two Straddles appeared in the current front-month expiry series Plus a mid-sized Call Spread near 0.00675 Upper boundaries: 0.00674 and 0.006799 (marked on chart) 🔍 Key Takeaways: Option traders are positioning likely for a correction in JPY futures after last week’s sharp drop. But, Straddle isn’t a directional bet — it’s a volatility play with structure. Call Spread is a a directional bet As usual, when price approaches either Straddle boundary, option players will likely convert positions into synthetic calls or puts, reinforcing these levels as BE zones. 🎯 Strategic Levels: 0.00674 – 0.006799 → Potential resistance zone in the medium term But here’s what’s interesting: If you apply a Fibonacci retracement tool, the 61.8% level aligns almost perfectly with one of the already marked Straddle levels. That kind of confluence? It could attract additional downside liquidity from traders using Fib grids — especially those selling into "expected" reversal zones. Is it a coincidence? Sure, probably 😉
CME:6JZ2025Short
by ClashChartsTeam
USD/JPY – Intraday Technical OutlookAfter a sharp bearish leg early this week, USD/JPY has entered a short-term accumulation range near the 0.00654 level. The H1 structure shows three clear phases: a strong decline, a bullish correction channel, and a new bearish impulse that has recently reached equilibrium. Technical overview: The pair completed a descending channel with momentum fading near the recent low. Price is now consolidating inside a narrow box pattern — a sign of potential accumulation before a corrective bounce. A short-term bullish reaction is expected if the price breaks above 0.00656–0.00657, targeting 0.00660–0.00663. The key support lies around 0.00653–0.00652; a breakout below this zone may resume the bearish trend toward 0.00648. Trading strategy: - Buy scenario: Wait for a confirmed breakout above 0.00657 with strong volume; targets 0.00660 → 0.00663. - Sell scenario: Only consider shorts if price rejects 0.00657 and breaks below 0.00653; targets 0.00650 → 0.00648. The market is currently in a decision zone. Traders should remain patient and wait for confirmation from price action before committing to a direction. - Save this post if you find it useful, and follow for more daily trading insights and strategies.
by Henrybillion
JPY/USD – Bearish Channel Continuation SetupThe chart shows a descending channel (highlighted in pink), indicating a continuing downtrend. Price is currently near the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting possible short-term support before another potential move downward. 📉 Trade Setup Breakdown Entry Point: 0.006820 Stop Loss: 0.006913 Target Point: 0.006465 This represents a sell (short) setup after a potential pullback. ⚙️ Scenario Explanation Pullback Phase: Price is expected to rebound upward from the lower boundary of the descending channel toward the support-turned-resistance zone (blue box). Rejection Zone: The blue highlighted zone around 0.006820 – 0.006913 is marked as a resistance/supply zone, where sellers are expected to regain control. Target Zone: The target near 0.006465 aligns with the lower boundary of the channel, confirming continuation of the bearish trend. 📊 Risk–Reward Ratio Approx. R:R = 1:3, which is a strong setup (risk ≈ 0.000093, reward ≈ 0.000355). 🔍 Technical Summary Trend: Bearish Structure: Descending channel Bias: Sell on retracement Confirmation Needed: Bearish candle formation or rejection near 0.006820 zone.
Short
by LABA_GOLD_TRADING
1
USD/JPY Intraday Analysis – October 2, 2025The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 0.0067970 on the 1-hour chart, showing signs of a bullish continuation within the upward channel. After a strong recovery from the 0.0066800 support area, price is approaching the upper trendline, suggesting the market may be preparing for a corrective wave before resuming its uptrend. Technical Overview: Trend: Short-term bullish, confirmed by a clear ascending channel. Support Levels: 0.0067800 – immediate support at the lower trendline of the channel. 0.0067600 – mid-term support near recent consolidation. 0.0067400 – deeper support if price breaks below the channel. Resistance Levels: 0.0068200 – near-term resistance at the previous swing high (Point A). 0.0068400 – upper channel trendline resistance. 0.0068600 – potential target for wave C if bullish momentum continues. Chart Pattern & Wave Analysis: Based on the current movement, the price appears to be forming an ABC corrective structure: Wave A: recent upward move to 0.0068200. Wave B: expected short-term pullback toward the lower channel boundary near 0.0067800. Wave C: projected continuation of the uptrend toward 0.0068600 if channel support holds. Trading Strategy: Long Opportunity: Consider entering near 0.0067800–0.0067850 after confirming support and bullish price action. Target 0.0068400–0.0068600 with a stop loss below 0.0067700. Short Opportunity: Only consider if price breaks below the channel convincingly, targeting 0.0067600–0.0067400, but this remains secondary as the overall trend is bullish. Indicators: EMA: Price above the short-term EMA confirms bullish momentum. RSI: Approaching 60–70, watch for overbought conditions near the upper trendline. - Summary: USD/JPY is trending upward in a defined channel. Traders should watch for a small pullback (Wave B) as an optimal entry for continuation toward Wave C. Always respect risk management and confirm support before entering long positions. Remember: Save this analysis if you find it helpful and follow for more intraday strategies and ABC wave projections on USD/JPY and other major pairs.
by Henrybillion
JPY Futures - Can We Take Out The 3rd ExoFade PeakTo clear any confusing for those that dont know, 6J Futures aka JPY/USD, is the inverse of your regular USD/JPY. Got it? It's currently in a strong uptrend, since the dollar is in a free fall. We've been taking out the ExoFade peaks and the trend looks juicy. Taking the 3rd pullback bounce of a uptrend is not my favorite thing to do cos each time you get a bounce, the probably of the next of failing goes up significantly cos sellers need to feed their families too lol. The first bounce in a new uptrend has a higher success rate and with much lower risk required. The ExoFade peaks are great for setting price targets and prediction, and we can see the last 2 peaks we're successfully taken out. If the trends momentum stays intact, i expect us to take out the 3rd one as predicted. London session is in a couple of hours, which will inject more volatility and we have unemployment news in the morning, which can disrupt the trend. We'll see how it goes.
CME:6J1!Long
by ExoProtocol
JPY/USD - 1H analysis (29/9/2025)1. Main Trend The H1 trend is currently downward (bearish), shown by lower highs and lower lows. The two red arrows mark significant resistance points where price reversed downward. 2. Key Support & Resistance Levels Near-term resistance: ~0.006720 (recent swing high, point A) Further resistance: ~0.006780 – 0.006850 (previous highs as marked on the chart) Near-term support: ~0.006660 – 0.006670 (recent swing low) These levels follow the swing high/low principle on H1. 3. Short-term ABC Wave Scenario The chart shows a potential ABC corrective wave: (A) – first upward retracement after the low (B) – corrective downward wave following A (C) – expected next upward wave to test higher resistance This is a counter-trend retracement pattern, meaning price could bounce up but still faces bearish pressure if it fails to break strong resistance. 4. Trading Strategies Strategy 1 – Follow the main trend: Wait for price to retrace to zone (B) ~0.006685–0.006690 Open a short position aiming for continuation of the downtrend Stop-loss above recent resistance (A) ~0.006720 Take-profit near the previous low ~0.006660 Strategy 2 – Short-term reversal trade: If price breaks resistance A (~0.006720) with a strong bullish candle Open a long position targeting the next resistance ~0.006780–0.006850 Stop-loss below the B low ~0.006685 5. Supporting Tools Trendline: Connect highs/lows to identify breakouts Short-term EMA (9/21): Crossovers indicate retracement waves H1 RSI: Check overbought/oversold zones to confirm strength of the move Summary Main trend: bearish Key levels: Resistance ~0.006720, 0.006780; Support ~0.006660 Strategy: Wait for ABC completion → sell with the trend or buy on resistance breakout Use EMA + RSI + trendline to confirm entries/exits
by Henrybillion
USD/JPY H1 - analysis (26/9/2025)1. Overall Trend The chart shows a strong downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows (marked by red arrows) confirm sustained selling pressure. The current corrective bounce is a potential opportunity to sell at resistance. 2. Entry Zone SELL Entry: 0.006678 – 0.006694 (green box on the chart) This area aligns with EMA20/short-term resistance—ideal for trend-following shorts. Confirm entry with a reversal candle or RSI > 70 signal. 3. Stop-loss (SL) SL: above 0.006694 (top of the green zone) Limits risk if the price breaks the short-term resistance. Matches the recent swing high before the downtrend continuation. 4. Take-profit (TP) TP: 0.006637 – 0.006630 (red zone at the bottom) Matches strong support and the recent swing low. Risk-reward ratio ~1:2 vs SL, suitable for disciplined risk management. 5. Trading Plan Wait for price to retrace into the 0.006678 – 0.006694 zone. Confirm reversal with candle pattern or RSI/EMA signals. Enter SELL with SL = 0.006694, TP = 0.006637. Keep risk at 1–2% of trading capital per trade. Insight: The market remains in a strong downtrend, so selling with the trend is higher probability than attempting to catch the bottom. The bounce to resistance offers a high-probability setup.
by Henrybillion
2
USD/JPY - H1 chart technical analysis (23/9/2025)1. Current Trend The chart is on a 1-hour timeframe (H1) and shows sideways consolidation within a rectangle (boxed area) after a prior downtrend. Price is currently pulling back slightly after reaching point A, setting up for a potential ABC upward move. 2. Technical Pattern This chart displays a potential ABC correction / impulse wave within the consolidation zone: A → B: a small corrective pullback after a minor rally. B → C: anticipated upward move toward the upper boundary of the rectangle (~0.00684), completing wave C. The rectangle indicates range-bound trading, meaning buyers and sellers are balanced but the ABC pattern suggests a bullish bias in the short term. 3. Key Support and Resistance Levels Support: ~0.006745–0.006750: previous swing lows and rectangle base (point B). 0.006720: the lowest point of the current range. Resistance: ~0.006830–0.006840: upper boundary of the rectangle (point C target). 0.006860: minor psychological level above the rectangle. 4. Trading Strategy Buy near point B pullback: Entry: ~0.006745–0.006750. Stop loss: below 0.006730 to avoid a false breakdown. Take profit: ~0.006830–0.006840 (upper rectangle boundary, wave C target). Confirmation signals: Watch for bullish candlestick patterns at support. Ensure momentum indicators (e.g., RSI H1) are not overbought. Risk: If price breaks below 0.006730, the bullish ABC scenario may fail, indicating a possible retest of lower support levels. 5. Summary USD/JPY is range-bound but forming a short-term ABC upward move. Point B provides a potential buying opportunity, with wave C targeting the upper rectangle boundary at ~0.00684. Traders should combine price action at support, ABC pattern, and momentum indicators to increase probability of a successful trade.
by Henrybillion
USD/JPY Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast# USD/JPY Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast - Comprehensive Multi-Dimensional Analysis Asset Class: USD/JPY (US Dollar vs Japanese Yen) Current Price: 147.036 (as of August 30, 2025, 12:54 AM UTC+4) Analysis Date: August 31, 2025 Market Context: Critical resistance testing phase with intervention risk monitoring Executive Summary The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 147.036, positioned at a technically significant juncture where multiple analytical frameworks suggest heightened volatility and directional uncertainty. The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to 146.9530 on August 29, 2025, up 0.22% from the previous session, while the USDJPY showed a −0.89% fall over the past week, the month change is a −1.63% fall, and over the last year it has increased by 1.42%. Our comprehensive multi-dimensional analysis reveals critical resistance levels ahead, with Bank of Japan intervention risks creating a complex risk-reward environment for both intraday and swing trading strategies. Current Market Landscape & Fundamental Context The USD/JPY pair remains in a precarious position, caught between bullish technical momentum and fundamental headwinds. From a technical point of view, USD/JPY remains in a long-term uptrend for 2025, supported by its position above the 50-week SMA. Key resistance levels include 156.97, 161.81, and 170.43, with the latter aligning with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. However, market dynamics have shifted considerably, with the Japanese Yen strengthening 1.52% over the past month, but down by 0.54% over the last 12 months. This creates a complex technical picture where short-term bearish pressure conflicts with longer-term bullish structure. The Bank of Japan's intervention threat looms large over the pair, particularly as the resistance near 148.50 continues to discourage the bulls according to recent Elliott Wave analysis. This resistance level has proven stubborn, creating a critical decision point for the pair's next major directional move. Multi-Timeframe Elliott Wave Analysis Primary Wave Count Structure Long-term Perspective (Monthly/Weekly): Based on recent analysis, the daily chart analysis for USDJPY indicates the beginning of a bearish trend, triggered by the initiation of Navy Blue Wave 1. The impulsive characteristics of this wave suggest continued downside movement. Grand Supercycle: Currently in Wave (III) from 2011 lows Cycle Wave: Potential completion of five-wave structure from 2022 Primary Wave: Currently developing corrective Wave (2) or (4) Intermediate Count: Complex correction in progress Medium-term Elliott Wave Structure (Daily/4H): The current wave count suggests USD/JPY is developing within a corrective framework: Wave A: Completed decline from July 2024 highs (161.95) to August lows (141.67) Wave B: Complex three-wave bounce to current levels Wave C: Potential target zone 139.58-136.00 (year-to-date lows) Alternative Count: Impulse Wave 1: Down from 161.95 to 141.67 Corrective Wave 2: Current bounce (complex flat or triangle) Target Wave 3: Extension toward 135.00-130.00 zone Elliott Wave Targets & Critical Levels Immediate Resistance (Wave B Completion): Primary Resistance: 148.50-149.00 (current battle zone) Secondary Resistance: 151.20-151.80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) Major Resistance: 154.50-155.50 (78.6% retracement level) Downside Targets (Wave C Projection): Initial Target: 143.50-144.50 (1:1 wave equality) Primary Target: 140.32-139.58 (previous reaction lows) Extended Target: 136.00-135.00 (1.618 extension) Ultimate Target: 131.00-128.00 (extreme bear scenario) Critical Invalidation Levels: Bull Case Invalidation: 158.924 acts as a key risk management point Bear Case Invalidation: Break below 141.67 (August 2024 low) Harmonic Pattern Analysis & Fibonacci Framework Active Harmonic Formations 1. Potential Bearish Gartley Pattern (Weekly-Monthly Timeframe) X to A Leg: 161.95 to 141.67 (2,028 pips decline) A to B Retracement: Current level at 147.03 (26.4% retracement) Target B Point: 148.50-150.00 (38.2%-50% optimal zone) Projected C Point: 144.00-145.50 (78.6%-88.6% of AB) Completion Zone (D): 155.50-157.80 (78.6%-88.6% XA retracement) 2. Bullish Bat Pattern Alert (4H-Daily) Formation Stage: Monitoring for X-A completion X Point: Current highs around 147.50 Potential A Point: Break below 144.50 would activate pattern Target Completion: 142.50-141.80 zone (88.6% XA retracement) Risk Assessment: High probability if 144.50 breaks 3. Crab Pattern Development (Higher Timeframes) Monitoring Setup: Extension beyond 149.50 could trigger Crab formation Completion Zone: 151.20-154.80 (161.8%-224% XA extension) Strategic Implication: Major reversal zone for long-term shorts Fibonacci Confluence Analysis Critical Fibonacci Levels: 23.6% Retracement: 146.15 (minor support from July-August range) 38.2% Retracement: 149.43 (major resistance confluence) 50% Retracement: 151.81 (psychological and technical resistance) 61.8% Golden Ratio: 154.19 (ultimate resistance barrier) 78.6% Level: 157.21 (major reversal zone) Extension Projections: 127.2% Extension: 144.20 (From recent correction) 161.8% Extension: 141.15 (Major downside target) 200% Extension: 137.58 (Extended bear target) 261.8% Extension: 132.45 (Extreme downside scenario) Wyckoff Theory Market Structure Analysis Current Market Phase Assessment Phase Identification: Distribution Phase (Phase D-E Transition) Wyckoff Characteristics Observed: 1. Accumulation Completed: 2022-2023 range (125.00-140.00) 2. Markup Phase: 2023-2024 rally to 161.95 highs 3. Distribution Phase: Current 2024-2025 range (141.67-161.95) 4. Preliminary Supply (PSY): July 2024 highs at 161.95 5. Buying Climax (BC): Failed retest of 161.95 levels 6. Automatic Reaction (AR): August decline to 141.67 7. Secondary Test (ST): Current bounce to 147.00+ levels 8. Sign of Weakness (SOW): Failure to reclaim 150.00+ levels Current Phase Analysis: Phase D: Testing supply levels (147.00-149.00) Phase E: Pending markdown if distribution confirms Volume Analysis: Declining volume on rallies, expanding on declines Wyckoff Price Targets: Initial Markdown: 139.58-140.32 (previous support cluster) Primary Target: 135.00-136.00 (measured move from distribution) Ultimate Target: 128.00-131.00 (full distribution projection) Volume Confirmation Signals Distribution Confirmation Required: Heavy Volume: On breaks below 145.00 Climactic Volume: Expected at major support breaks Volume Divergence: Lower volume on bounces (bearish) W.D. Gann Theory & Sacred Geometry Analysis Gann Square of 9 Analysis Current Position: 147.036 approaches critical Gann resistance Key Gann Levels: Natural Support: 144.00 (perfect square root level) Current Resistance: 148.00-149.00 (major Gann square cluster) Critical Resistance: 152.00 (next significant square level) Ultimate Resistance: 156.25 (major Gann confluence) Extreme Target: 160.00-161.00 (perfect square resistance) Gann Time Theory & Sacred Cycles Active Time Cycles: 90-Day Cycle: Completed August 15, 2025 (±3 days) 120-Day Cycle: Due September 22, 2025 (major time window) 180-Day Cycle: Approaching October 2025 (significant reversal period) Seasonal Pattern: September-October typically volatile for USD/JPY Gann Angles Analysis: 1x1 Support Angle: Declining at 145.50 (from July highs) 2x1 Support: 143.80 (major support angle) 1x2 Resistance: 149.20 (dynamic resistance line) 4x1 Resistance: 152.80 (long-term resistance angle) Price-Time Balance Assessment Current Imbalance: Time ahead of price (bearish configuration) Equilibrium Zone: 145.50-147.50 (price-time balance point) Acceleration Triggers: Bearish Acceleration: Break below 145.50 with time alignment Bullish Reversal: Time cycle completion with price support Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Cloud Analysis Current Ichimoku Structure Tenkan-sen (9): 146.85 (immediate dynamic resistance) Kijun-sen (26): 148.15 (medium-term resistance line) Senkou Span A: 147.50 (near-term cloud boundary) Senkou Span B: 151.20 (strong cloud resistance) Chikou Span: Trading below price 26 periods ago (bearish signal) Ichimoku Signals & Market Structure Current Status: Price below cloud (bearish environment) Key Ichimoku Signals: 1. TK Cross: Tenkan below Kijun (bearish momentum confirmed) 2. Cloud Color: Red cloud ahead (bearish bias continues) 3. Price vs Cloud: Below cloud (trend confirmation bearish) 4. Chikou Span: Below historical prices (momentum confirmation bearish) 5. Lagging Span: Clear downward trajectory Ichimoku Support & Resistance: Immediate Resistance: Tenkan-sen at 146.85 Primary Resistance: Kijun-sen at 148.15 Cloud Resistance: 147.50-151.20 (thick cloud barrier) Major Resistance: 152.50+ (cloud top projection) Support Levels: Immediate Support: 145.50-146.00 Cloud Support: Not applicable (price below cloud) Historical Support: 143.50-144.50 (previous reaction levels) Technical Indicators Deep Dive Relative Strength Index (RSI) Multi-Timeframe Analysis Current RSI Status: Daily RSI: 44.2 (Neutral-bearish territory) 4H RSI: 38.5 (Approaching oversold conditions) 1H RSI: 52.1 (Neutral zone with bearish bias) Weekly RSI: 35.8 (Oversold but not extreme) RSI Signals & Divergences: Bearish Divergence: Confirmed on daily and 4H charts RSI Resistance: 50 level acting as dynamic resistance Support Zone: 30 level provides oversold bounce potential Momentum Analysis: RSI structure remains bearish below 50 RSI Trading Levels: Sell Signal Confirmation: RSI break below 40 on daily Oversold Bounce: RSI below 25 on intraday timeframes Trend Change: RSI sustained above 60 required for bullish shift Bollinger Bands (BB) Volatility Framework Current Band Configuration: Upper Band: 149.45 (major resistance) Middle Band (SMA 20): 147.25 (dynamic pivot) Lower Band: 145.05 (support level) Band Position: Middle-lower third (bearish bias) Bollinger Band Analysis: Bandwidth: Contracting after recent expansion Squeeze Potential: Low volatility environment developing Band Walk: Potential for lower band walk if 146.50 breaks Volatility Expansion: Expected within 5-10 trading sessions BB Trading Strategies: Band Bounce: Fade moves to band extremes Squeeze Breakout: Direction determined by 147.25 middle band Band Walk: Sustained moves outside bands indicate trend strength Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) Analysis Multi-Session VWAP Framework: Daily VWAP: 146.95 (critical pivot level) Weekly VWAP: 148.30 (resistance anchor) Monthly VWAP: 151.85 (major resistance zone) Quarterly VWAP: 154.20 (significant overhead supply) VWAP Trading Signals: Below VWAP: Bearish institutional sentiment confirmed VWAP Rejection: 146.95 acting as dynamic resistance Volume Profile: Heavy volume cluster at 148.00-149.50 (resistance) Moving Average Convergence Structure Simple Moving Averages: SMA 20: 147.25 (immediate resistance) SMA 50: 149.80 (intermediate resistance) SMA 100: 152.40 (long-term resistance) SMA 200: 155.60 (major trend indicator) Exponential Moving Averages: EMA 12: 146.95 (short-term resistance) EMA 26: 148.45 (MACD baseline) EMA 50: 150.20 (medium-term resistance) EMA 100: 153.10 (long-term resistance) Moving Average Signals: Death Cross Alert: EMA 12 crossing below EMA 26 (bearish) Resistance Confluence: Multiple MAs clustering above current price Support Absence: No significant MA support until 143.50 area Advanced Candlestick Pattern Recognition Recent Candlestick Formations Weekly Chart Patterns: 1. Shooting Star (Week of August 19) - Bearish reversal confirmed 2. Doji Sequence (Previous weeks) - Indecision resolved to downside 3. Bearish Engulfing potential forming current week Daily Chart Patterns: 1. Three Black Crows (August 5-7) - Strong bearish momentum 2. Bear Flag Pattern (August 15-25) - Consolidation before continuation 3. Evening Star formation completed (August 26-28) 4. Dark Cloud Cover pattern active 4-Hour Chart Signals: 1. Bear Flag Breakdown - Target 144.50 2. Descending Triangle - Apex break targeting 145.00 3. Head and Shoulders pattern completing Candlestick Strategy Integration Bearish Continuation Patterns: Three Black Crows completion below 146.00 Falling Three Methods (bearish continuation in downtrend) Dark Cloud Cover reinforcement of resistance Reversal Patterns to Monitor: Hammer formation at 145.00 support (bullish reversal) Bullish Engulfing required for trend change confirmation Morning Star pattern would signal major reversal Pattern Confluence Analysis: Resistance Patterns: Evening Star + Shooting Star at 148.50 Breakdown Patterns: Bear Flag + Triangle completion Support Patterns: Potential Hammer + Doji at major support Market Structure & Critical Levels Framework Major Resistance Architecture Tier 1 Resistance (Immediate): 1. 147.25-147.50: Daily SMA 20 + VWAP confluence 2. 148.15-148.50: Kijun-sen + recent highs 3. 149.00-149.50: Bollinger upper band + psychological level 4. 150.00-150.50: Major psychological resistance + volume cluster Tier 2 Resistance (Intermediate): 1. 151.20-151.80: Ichimoku cloud + Fibonacci 50% retracement 2. 152.50-153.00: SMA 100 + Gann angle convergence 3. 154.20-154.80: Fibonacci 61.8% + quarterly VWAP 4. 156.00-157.00: Major harmonic completion zone Tier 3 Resistance (Major): 1. 158.50-159.00: Elliott Wave invalidation level 2. 160.00-161.00: Psychological + previous highs 3. 161.95: All-time resistance (2024 high) Critical Support Levels Framework Immediate Support (High Probability): 1. 146.50-146.80: Minor support cluster 2. 145.50-146.00: Gann 1x1 angle + previous reaction 3. 144.50-145.00: Harmonic support + round number 4. 143.50-144.00: Major support confluence Intermediate Support (Medium Probability): 1. 142.00-142.50: Previous swing low area 2. 141.67: August 2024 low (critical level) 3. 140.32: September 2024 low + Elliott target 4. 139.58: Year-to-date low Major Support (Lower Probability): 1. 136.00-137.00: Harmonic completion + Wyckoff target 2. 135.00: Round number + Elliott extension 3. 131.00-132.00: Major Fibonacci extension 4. 128.00-130.00: Ultimate bear target Market Structure Classification Current Structure: Lower highs and lower lows since July 2024 Trend Classification: Bearish on all timeframes above 141.67 Structure Invalidation: Sustained break above 150.00 Trend Acceleration: Break below 145.00 with volume Comprehensive Trading Strategies Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H Charts) # Strategy 1: Resistance Rejection Play (Success Rate: 70%) Setup Requirements: - Price approaching 147.25-148.50 resistance zone - RSI approaching 50-60 on 1H chart - Volume declining on approach (distribution) Entry Criteria: Short Entry: 147.80-148.20 (scale in at resistance) Stop Loss: 149.00 (above major resistance) Target 1: 146.50 (immediate support) Target 2: 145.50 (Gann support) Target 3: 144.50 (major support) Risk-Reward: 1:2.8 # Strategy 2: Support Breakdown Trading (Success Rate: 65%) Bearish Breakdown: Entry: Break below 146.00 with volume confirmation Stop Loss: 146.80 (failed breakdown) Target 1: 145.00 (immediate support) Target 2: 144.00 (harmonic target) Target 3: 142.50 (extended target) False Breakdown (Bull Trap): Setup: Heavy volume break below 146.00 with immediate recovery Entry: Long above 146.50 with confirmation Target: 148.00-149.00 zone # Strategy 3: Range Trading Strategy (Success Rate: 60%) Range Parameters: 145.50-148.50 (current consolidation) Sell Zone: 147.80-148.50 (range highs) Buy Zone: 145.50-146.20 (range lows) Stop Loss: Outside range boundaries Profit Target: Opposite range boundary Range Break: Follow breakout direction with trend strategy Swing Trading Strategy (4H - Monthly Charts) # Primary Swing Setup: Elliott Wave C Completion Market Context: Currently in corrective Wave B, preparing for Wave C down Short Position Framework: Entry Zone: 147.50-149.50 (any rallies into resistance) Entry Trigger: Rejection at resistance with bearish momentum Stop Loss: 151.00 (above major resistance cluster) Target 1: 143.50-144.50 (initial support) Target 2: 140.32-141.67 (previous lows) Ultimate Target: 136.00-139.58 (Elliott Wave C target) Position Size: 2.5% account risk Time Horizon: 6-12 weeks Risk Management Protocol: Initial Risk: 150-250 pips (tight stops on entries) Position Scaling: Add on bounces to 148.00-149.00 Profit Taking: 30% at Target 1, 50% at Target 2, 20% runner Trailing Stops: Implement after 1:1.5 risk-reward achieved # Alternative Swing Setup: Bull Trap Reversal If Bearish Scenario Fails: Invalidation: Sustained break above 150.00 New Strategy: Long above 150.50 with confirmation Targets: 154.20, 157.80, 161.95 Stop Loss: Below 148.50 Probability: 25% (lower probability scenario) # Range-Bound Swing Strategy If Extended Consolidation: Range: 141.67-154.20 (broad consolidation range) Sell Zone: 152.00-154.20 (range highs) Buy Zone: 141.67-144.50 (range lows) Strategy: Fade extremes with tight risk management Duration: 8-16 weeks potential Weekly Trading Plan (September 2-6, 2025) Monday September 2: Labor Day Consideration Expected Scenario: Reduced liquidity due to US holiday Strategy: Conservative positioning, avoid major trades Key Focus: Monitor for any BoJ intervention signals Technical Setup: Range trading 146.50-148.00 Risk: Potential for gap moves on Tuesday open Tuesday September 3: BoJ Meeting Minutes + US ISM Major Focus: Bank of Japan policy stance + US economic data Pre-Event Strategy: Reduce position sizes ahead of announcements BoJ Impact: Intervention warnings could trigger sharp JPY strength US ISM Impact: Manufacturing data affects USD sentiment Key Levels: 147.25 (pivot), 148.50 (resistance), 146.00 (support) Wednesday September 4: Technical Breakout Day Market Focus: Resolution of current consolidation pattern Morning Session: European session range analysis Afternoon Setup: US session breakout potential Key Catalyst: Elliott Wave pattern completion Strategy: Breakout trading with tight risk management Thursday September 5: US Initial Claims + Service PMI Technical Focus: Mid-week momentum continuation Data Impact: US employment and service sector health Technical Setup: Trend continuation or reversal confirmation Key Confluence: 145.50 support test likely Strategy: Follow-through positioning Friday September 6: NFP Preparation + Weekly Close Week-End Positioning: Major employment data approach Strategy: Reduce risk exposure ahead of weekend Technical Focus: Weekly close positioning crucial Target Close: Weekly close below 147.00 (bearish) or above 148.50 (bullish) Risk Management: Flat positions before major data Advanced Pattern Recognition & Alert System Bull Trap Scenarios (High Probability) Setup 1: False Breakout Above 148.50 Characteristics: Low volume breakout, immediate reversal below 148.00 Response: Aggressive short positioning Target: 145.50-144.50 (measured move) Stop Loss: Above 149.50 (failed trap confirmation) Probability: 75% (high confidence setup) Setup 2: Failed Elliott Wave Extension Scenario: Rally beyond 149.50 but failure at 151.20 Implication: Complex Wave B still developing Strategy: Short aggressive rallies into 150.00-151.50 Risk Management: Tight stops above major resistance Bear Trap Alerts (Moderate Probability) Setup 1: False Break Below 145.50 Characteristics: Heavy volume break with quick recovery above 146.50 Response: Long positioning on retest of breakdown level Target: 148.50-149.50 (trapped bears covering) Confirmation: RSI bullish divergence + volume surge Probability: 35% (moderate probability) Setup 2: Intervention-Driven Reversal Trigger: BoJ verbal or actual intervention Response: Immediate JPY strength (USD/JPY decline) Strategy: Quick short positioning on intervention signals Risk: Intervention effectiveness varies Complex Pattern Alerts Expanding Triangle Formation: Current Status: Potential formation in progress Boundaries: 145.00-149.50 (expanding range) Resolution: Final thrust expected in either direction Strategy: Wait for clear breakout confirmation Risk Management & Position Sizing Excellence Account Risk Framework Single Trade Risk: Maximum 1.5% for intraday, 2.5% for swing Currency Exposure: Total JPY exposure not exceeding 6% of account Correlation Analysis: Monitor AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY correlations Event Risk: Reduce positions 50% ahead of BoJ meetings Advanced Stop Loss Methodology Technical Stops: Support/Resistance: 20-30 pips beyond key levels (volatile pair) Moving Average: Above/below significant MA clusters Volatility-Based: 2.0x Average True Range (ATR) for USD/JPY Time-Based: Exit if no progress within specified timeframes Intervention Risk Management: BoJ Alert Stops: Tighter stops during intervention risk periods News-Based Exits: Flat positions during major BoJ communications Volatility Expansion: Wider stops during high volatility periods Sophisticated Profit Taking Framework Multi-Tiered Exit Strategy: 1. 20% at 0.8:1 Risk-Reward (early profit protection) 2. 40% at 1.5:1 Risk-Reward (secure majority profit) 3. 30% at 2.5:1 Risk-Reward (extended target) 4. 10% runner with wide trailing (capture extreme moves) Dynamic Trailing Methodology: Activation: After reaching 1:1 risk-reward minimum Trail Distance: 50% of initial stop distance Acceleration: Reduce trail distance as profits increase Weekend Rule: Flat 80% of positions before weekend close Market Psychology & Sentiment Deep Dive Current Sentiment Indicators Institutional Positioning: COT Data: Large speculators slightly short JPY (contrarian bullish for JPY) Bank Positioning: Major banks reducing USD/JPY longs Hedge Fund Activity: Mixed signals with slight JPY bias Retail Sentiment Analysis: Retail Positioning: 65% long USD/JPY (contrarian bearish signal) Social Media Sentiment: Bearish JPY narrative dominant News Flow: Intervention fears creating uncertainty Fear & Greed Dynamics Current Market Psychology: Fear Factors: BoJ intervention risk, global slowdown concerns Greed Elements: US rate differential still favorable for USD Uncertainty: Mixed central bank policy signals Volatility: Implied volatility elevated due to intervention risk Psychological Price Barriers Major Round Numbers: 145.00: Critical psychological support 150.00: Major psychological resistance (intervention watch level) 155.00: Significant psychological barrier 160.00: Extreme resistance (intervention certainty) External Factors & Macroeconomic Context Central Bank Policy Divergence Federal Reserve: Current Stance: Data-dependent with potential pause in tightening Market Expectations: Possible rate cuts in Q4 2025 Key Speakers: Monitor Fed officials for policy shift signals Impact on USD/JPY: Rate cut expectations bearish for USD Bank of Japan: Current Policy: Ultra-accommodative with intervention threats Intervention Threshold: Estimated around 150.00-152.00 levels Communication Strategy: Increased verbal intervention frequency YCC Policy: Yield Curve Control adjustments affecting JPY Geopolitical Risk Factors Regional Considerations: North Korea tensions: Safe-haven JPY demand potential China economic slowdown: Affects regional trade and JPY sentiment US-Japan relations: Trade and security alliance impacts Global risk sentiment: Risk-off benefits JPY, risk-on supports USD Economic Calendar High-Impact Events Japan Priority Events: BoJ Policy Meetings: Quarterly with potential intervention signals Japanese CPI: Monthly inflation readings affect policy expectations Tankan Survey: Quarterly business sentiment indicator Trade Balance: Monthly data affecting current account dynamics US Priority Events: FOMC Meetings: Federal Reserve policy decisions NFP Reports: Monthly employment data with USD impact CPI/PPI Data: Inflation readings affecting Fed policy GDP Reports: Quarterly growth data influencing rate expectations Technology Integration & Automation Systems Automated Alert Framework Price-Based Alerts: Breakout Levels: 145.00, 148.50, 150.00, 152.00 Support/Resistance: All major confluence levels Pattern Completion: Harmonic and Elliott Wave targets Intervention Levels: 149.50, 152.00 (BoJ watch levels) Indicator-Based Alerts: RSI: Extreme readings (<25, >75) for reversal potential Bollinger Bands: Band squeeze completion and expansion signals MACD: Signal line crosses and histogram divergences Volume: Unusual volume spikes (3x average due to intervention risk) Volatility: ATR expansion beyond 150% of 20-day average News-Based Alert System BoJ Communication Monitoring: Press Releases: Real-time BoJ statement analysis Official Speeches: Governor Ueda and board member communications Market Intervention: Actual or verbal intervention signals Policy Changes: YCC adjustments or policy stance modifications US Economic Data Integration: High-Impact Releases: NFP, CPI, FOMC statements Fed Communications: FOMC minutes and Fed speaker events Economic Surprises: Significant data deviations from consensus Rate Expectations: Fed funds futures probability shifts Trading Platform Integration Excellence TradingView Professional Setup: Multi-timeframe Dashboard: 5M, 15M, 1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Custom Indicator Stack: Harmonic scanner, Elliott Wave tools, Ichimoku Alert Management: Price, indicator, and pattern-based notifications Strategy Backtesting: Historical performance validation across timeframes MetaTrader 5 Advanced Integration: Expert Advisor Development: Automated entry/exit based on confluences Risk Management Automation: Dynamic position sizing and stop adjustments News Feed Integration: Economic calendar with automatic impact assessment Performance Analytics: Detailed trade statistics and drawdown analysis Professional Trading Tools: Bloomberg Terminal: Real-time news flow and institutional positioning Reuters Integration: Central bank communication monitoring TradingCentral: Additional harmonic pattern confirmation Commitment of Traders: Weekly positioning analysis integration Advanced Strategy Combinations & Confluence Trading Tier 1 Multi-Confluence Signals (Highest Probability: 80-85%) Bearish Confluence Setup: - Elliott Wave C completion + Harmonic Gartley target + RSI divergence + Ichimoku bearish signals + Volume confirmation + BoJ intervention risk Entry Zone: 148.00-149.50 Target Zone: 143.50-145.50 Risk-Reward: 1:3.5+ Bullish Confluence Setup (Lower Probability: 35-40%): - Failed Elliott Wave + Bull trap completion + RSI oversold bounce + Wyckoff spring test + Major support hold Entry Zone: 145.00-146.50 (if support holds) Target Zone: 150.00-152.00 Risk-Reward: 1:2.0 Tier 2 Moderate Confluence Signals (60-70% Probability) Resistance Rejection Play: - Fibonacci confluence + Moving average resistance + Candlestick reversal patterns + Bollinger Band upper touch Strategy: Short rallies into 147.25-148.50 zone Management: Scale out approach with trailing stops Support Bounce Strategy: - Gann level support + Previous reaction lows + RSI oversold + Volume climax Strategy: Long bounces from 145.50-146.00 zone Target: 147.50-148.50 resistance zone Tier 3 Single-Method Signals (45-55% Probability) Pattern-Only Trades: - Pure candlestick pattern plays without additional confluence Risk Management: Tighter stops, smaller position sizes Profit Targets: Conservative, quick profit-taking approach Scenario Planning & Strategic Contingencies Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown Acceleration (55% Probability) Trigger Events: - Break below 145.50 with strong volume (>2x average) - BoJ intervention threats or actual intervention - US economic data supporting USD weakness - Global risk-off sentiment favoring JPY safe-haven Trading Strategy: Primary Approach: Trend following shorts on any bounces Entry Zones: 146.50-147.50 (on relief rallies) Target Sequence: 144.50 → 142.50 → 140.32 → 139.58 Risk Management: Trail stops below swing highs, wide stops due to volatility Position Sizing: Scale in on bounces, maximum 3% account risk Key Success Metrics: - Volume expansion on declines - RSI remaining below 50 on bounces - Ichimoku cloud acting as resistance - Elliott Wave count validation Scenario 2: Extended Range-Bound Consolidation (30% Probability) Characteristics: - Range Parameters: 141.67 - 154.20 (broad consolidation) - Duration: 8-16 weeks - Volume: Declining overall with spikes at range extremes - Central Bank Policy: Status quo maintained Trading Strategy: Range Strategy: Fade extremes, take profits at boundaries Buy Zone: 141.67-144.50 with strong confirmation signals Sell Zone: 152.00-154.20 with reversal confirmation Risk Management: Stops outside range boundaries Position Sizing: Smaller positions due to unpredictable nature Range Break Strategy: Preparation: Monitor for volume expansion and breakout signals Bullish Break: Above 154.20 targets 157.80-161.95 Bearish Break: Below 141.67 targets 139.58-136.00 False Break Management: Quick reversal trades with tight stops Scenario 3: Surprise Bullish Reversal (15% Probability) Potential Catalysts: - Major Fed dovish shift or rate cut announcement - BoJ policy error or unexpected hawkish stance - Global financial crisis requiring USD strength - Technical failure of bearish Elliott Wave count Trading Strategy: Trigger: Sustained break above 150.00 with heavy volume Confirmation Required: Weekly close above 151.50 Target Sequence: 154.20 → 157.80 → 161.95 → 165.00+ Risk Management: Below 148.50 invalidates bullish scenario Position Approach: Scale in on pullbacks to 150.00-151.50 Early Warning Signals: - RSI divergence at major lows - Volume climax at support levels - Unusual institutional buying activity - Central bank policy surprise potential Performance Optimization & Success Metrics Strategy Performance Targets Win Rate Objectives: Intraday Strategies: 65-70% win rate minimum Swing Strategies: 55-65% win rate acceptable Range Trading: 60-70% win rate in consolidation Breakout Trading: 45-55% win rate (higher R:R compensation) Risk-Adjusted Return Targets: Daily Return Target: 0.5-1.0% of account (sustainable growth) Monthly Return Target: 8-15% (risk-adjusted) Maximum Drawdown: 12% monthly, 20% annual Sharpe Ratio: Above 1.5 for strategy validation Advanced Performance Metrics Strategy Efficiency Indicators: Profit Factor: Gross profit/gross loss ratio >1.8 Average Win vs Average Loss: Minimum 2:1 ratio Consecutive Loss Tolerance: Maximum 4 losing trades Recovery Time: Maximum 2 weeks to recover from significant drawdown Market Timing Effectiveness: Entry Precision: Within 25 pips of optimal entry point Exit Timing: Capture minimum 60% of available move Pattern Recognition Accuracy: 75%+ success rate on major patterns News Impact Prediction: 70%+ accuracy on high-impact events Continuous Improvement Framework Weekly Strategy Review: Trade Journal Analysis: Document all entries, exits, and reasoning Pattern Performance: Track success rates of different setups Market Condition Adaptation: Adjust strategies based on volatility and trending conditions Risk Management Assessment: Evaluate stop-loss and position sizing effectiveness Monthly Strategy Optimization: Backtest Updates: Incorporate new data and market conditions Parameter Adjustment: Optimize indicator settings and confluence requirements Strategy Evolution: Develop new approaches based on market changes Performance Benchmark: Compare against major currency indices and peers Economic Event Calendar & High-Impact Scheduling September 2025 Critical Events Week 1 (September 1-5): September 3: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (High Impact) September 4: ECB Rate Decision (Medium Impact on USD/JPY) September 5: US Initial Claims + Services PMI (Medium Impact) September 6: US Non-Farm Payrolls (Very High Impact) Week 2 (September 8-12): September 10: US CPI Data (Very High Impact) September 11: ECB Press Conference (Medium Impact) September 12: US PPI Data (Medium Impact) Week 3 (September 15-19): September 17: FOMC Rate Decision (Very High Impact) September 18: BoJ Policy Meeting (Extremely High Impact for JPY) September 19: US Existing Home Sales (Low Impact) Week 4 (September 22-26): September 24: Global PMI Flash Estimates (Medium Impact) September 25: US Durable Goods Orders (Medium Impact) September 26: US GDP Preliminary (High Impact) Event-Specific Trading Strategies BoJ Meeting Strategy (September 18): Pre-Event: Reduce positions by 70% due to intervention risk Event Strategy: Hawkish Surprise: Long JPY (short USD/JPY) immediately Dovish/Status Quo: Monitor for verbal intervention threats Intervention Announcement: Immediate short USD/JPY positioning Post-Event: Wait for volatility to settle before major positioning FOMC Strategy (September 17): Pre-Event: Flat positions 2 hours before announcement Dovish Fed: Bearish USD/JPY, target 144.50-145.50 Hawkish Fed: Bullish USD/JPY, target 149.50-151.20 Neutral Fed: Range trading strategy 146.00-148.50 US CPI Strategy (September 10): High CPI: USD strength, potential rally to 148.50-149.50 Low CPI: USD weakness, potential decline to 145.50-146.50 In-Line CPI: Limited directional impact, fade any knee-jerk moves Advanced Risk Controls & Circuit Breakers Volatility-Based Risk Management ATR-Based Position Sizing: Low Volatility (ATR <100 pips): Standard position sizing Medium Volatility (ATR 100-150 pips): Reduce position size by 25% High Volatility (ATR 150-200 pips): Reduce position size by 50% Extreme Volatility (ATR >200 pips): Reduce position size by 75% News-Based Risk Controls: Tier 1 Events (NFP, FOMC, BoJ): Maximum 1% risk per trade Tier 2 Events (CPI, PMI): Maximum 1.5% risk per trade Tier 3 Events (Claims, Minor data): Standard 2% risk per trade Surprise Events: Immediate position size reduction by 50% Account Protection Protocols Daily Loss Limits: Stop Trading: After 3% daily loss Reduce Size: After 2% daily loss (50% position reduction) Alert Level: After 1.5% daily loss (review positions) Recovery Protocol: Minimum 24-hour break after hitting daily limit Weekly/Monthly Limits: Weekly Stop: 8% account loss Monthly Stop: 15% account loss Quarterly Review: Strategy overhaul if >20% drawdown Annual Target: Positive returns with <25% maximum drawdown Technology & Execution Excellence Order Management System Entry Orders: Limit Orders: Use for planned entries at key levels Stop Orders: For breakout trading with slippage protection Market Orders: Only during high-conviction setups or emergencies OCO Orders: One-Cancels-Other for simultaneous long/short setups Exit Management: Trailing Stops: Automated trailing with customizable parameters Time-Based Exits: Automatic closure if targets not reached Bracket Orders: Simultaneous stop-loss and take-profit placement Scaling Orders: Automated partial profit-taking at predetermined levels Execution Timing Optimization Session-Based Strategy: Asian Session (21:00-06:00 GMT): Range trading, lower volatility European Session (06:00-15:00 GMT): Momentum continuation, news reactions US Session (13:00-22:00 GMT): High volatility, breakout trading Session Overlaps: Maximum liquidity, best execution conditions Optimal Entry Timing: London Open (08:00 GMT): Volatility expansion, trend continuation New York Open (13:00 GMT): Major breakouts, news reactions Tokyo Open (00:00 GMT): BoJ intervention risk, range trading Session Closes: Position adjustment, profit-taking opportunities Conclusion & Strategic Implementation The USD/JPY pair presents a compelling technical landscape characterized by multiple bearish confluences suggesting potential downside continuation from current levels around 147.036. The convergence of Elliott Wave corrective structure, completed harmonic patterns, Wyckoff distribution characteristics, and restrictive Ichimoku cloud positioning creates a high-probability environment for strategic short positioning. Primary Strategic Themes: 1. Bearish Bias Dominance: Multiple analytical frameworks align to suggest continued weakness toward 143.50-140.32 support cluster 2. Intervention Risk Management: BoJ intervention threats require dynamic risk adjustment above 149.50-150.00 levels 3. Range Trading Preparation: Extended consolidation between 141.67-154.20 remains possible alternative scenario 4. Volatility Expansion: Technical patterns suggest significant directional move imminent within 2-4 weeks Optimal Risk-Reward Framework: Primary Scenario (55% probability): Bearish continuation to 140.32-143.50 zone Secondary Scenario (30% probability): Extended range-bound consolidation Alternative Scenario (15% probability): Bullish reversal above 150.00 Critical Success Factors: 1. Disciplined Risk Management: Strict adherence to position sizing and stop-loss protocols 2. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: Wait for alignment across various analytical methods 3. Event Risk Awareness: Proactive position adjustment around major central bank events 4. Adaptive Strategy Implementation: Flexibility to adjust approaches based on evolving market structure Implementation Priority Matrix: Immediate Focus: Monitor 147.25-148.50 resistance for rejection signals Medium-term Strategy: Position for Elliott Wave C completion toward 140.32-143.50 Long-term Preparation: Anticipate potential range resolution and major trend development Risk Control: Maintain intervention awareness with stops above 150.00-151.00 Performance Expectations: Win Rate Target: 60-70% across combined strategies Risk-Reward Minimum: 1:2.5 average across all positions Maximum Portfolio Risk: 5% USD/JPY exposure with 2.5% individual trade risk Timeline: 6-12 weeks for major pattern completion and target achievement Final Strategic Recommendation: Maintain bearish bias with defensive positioning, capitalize on rallies into 147.50-149.50 resistance for high-probability short entries, and prepare for potential volatility expansion around major support breaks below 145.50. Continuous monitoring of Bank of Japan communications and Federal Reserve policy shifts remains critical for strategy adaptation and optimal trade execution timing. The technical confluence suggests USD/JPY is approaching a major inflection point where multiple analytical frameworks converge to create exceptional trading opportunities for both intraday and swing trading approaches, provided risk management protocols are strictly maintained throughout the campaign. Risk Disclaimer: Currency trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The analysis provided is for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. Bank of Japan intervention risk creates additional volatility that may result in rapid and substantial losses. Traders should conduct independent analysis and consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives before executing any trading strategies based on this analysis.
by sunya
USD increased slightly and JPY decreased deeplyThe world USD price increased slightly. The USD-Index reached 98.79 points, 0.08 points higher than yesterday. According to CNBC, the USD increased in value compared to most currencies as the market focused on President Donald Trump's personnel nomination for the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Yesterday, President Donald Trump said he would soon announce decisions on replacing Governor Adriana Kugler, who resigned last Friday, including choosing the next Fed chair. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term will end in May 2026. Yesterday's report from the Institute for Supply Management said that the US non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in July fell to 50.1 from 50.8 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI would increase to 51.5. A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. Investors are pricing in a high probability that the Fed will cut interest rates at its September meeting. Investment bank Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to deliver three consecutive 0.25% rate cuts starting in September...
Long
by FalCol_TradingMaster
USD/JPY – Short-term bullish structure within a larger downtrendThe USD/JPY pair has been in a well-established downtrend on the daily timeframe, showing consistent weakness over recent weeks. Daily timeframe The pair recently bounced from a significant and well-respected support zone around the $140.00 level. This area has historically provided a strong base for price, and once again, it appears to be holding as reliable support. Although the overall daily trend remains bearish, this bounce introduces the potential for a short-term retracement or consolidation phase. Clear Rising Trendline on the 4H Chart Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the price action shows a notable shift in momentum. A clear rising trendline has formed, acting as a dynamic support level and guiding the pair higher in the short term. As long as this trendline remains intact and unbroken, the bullish bias on the 4H remains valid. This upward move suggests a corrective phase within the broader daily downtrend, supported by increasing demand at higher lows. Approaching Key Resistance — FVG and 0.786 Fibonacci Level The pair is currently approaching a key resistance area near the $145.50 level. This zone aligns with the 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) left by the previous strong downward move and coincides with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, measured from the most recent swing high to swing low. A few days ago, price action briefly tested the lower boundary of this FVG but failed to fully fill the imbalance. Given the current momentum, another attempt to fill the entire FVG and test the 0.786 Fibonacci level is likely. This confluence of technical factors creates a strong resistance zone that could trigger significant price reactions, potentially resuming the broader downtrend. Target Levels — Where to Look for Reversal or Profit-Taking A sensible short-term target would be the previous lower high around the $144.00 level. This zone may serve as an initial resistance or take-profit area before price challenges the $145.50 resistance region. Additionally, if the pair breaks below the rising trendline on the 4H, this $144.00 zone could become a support level from which the pair might attempt another move higher. Conclusion To summarize, the USD/JPY pair remains in a broader daily downtrend but has shown signs of short-term strength after bouncing from the $140.00 support zone. On the 4-hour timeframe, bullish momentum is evident, supported by a rising trendline and upward movement toward a significant resistance area. Traders should closely watch the $145.50 zone, as it represents a confluence of the FVG and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement — both of which could act as a strong ceiling for price. Until the rising trendline breaks, the short-term outlook remains cautiously bullish, but the medium-term bias leans bearish if resistance holds and selling pressure resumes. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
Short
by Youriverse
25
JPYUSD Smart Money VIP Analysis – Eyeing High-Probability Target📈 Market Context: The JPYUSD (Japanese Yen vs. US Dollar) is currently navigating through a critical structure phase where price is reacting to previously established institutional zones. Recent price movements reveal a clean and structured setup — one that aligns perfectly with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and CHoCH (Change of Character) theory. This 2H chart provides a roadmap for anticipating the next high-probability reversal, giving traders an edge in both short-term scalps and mid-term swing trades. 🔍 In-Depth Chart Analysis: 🧱 Resistance Zone (0.007020–0.007040): This area has been tested multiple times in the past and acted as a strong supply zone. Institutional orders have previously caused significant bearish pressure from this level. Unless a strong bullish breakout occurs with volume, this zone is likely to hold again. 🔁 Next Reversal Zone (0.006975–0.006985): Price is currently climbing from the SR Interchange Zone, heading toward this marked reversal area. Here's why this zone matters: Confluence of past resistance and imbalance Potential liquidity sweep above minor highs Perfect setup for a bearish reaction to form a lower high Traders should watch for signs of weak bullish candles, wicks, or a bearish engulfing here. 🔄 SR Interchange (Support-Resistance Flip): This level held firm, showing buyer interest after a previous structure break. It signals a healthy correction phase — a typical SMC signature before larger moves occur. The market is offering a retracement opportunity. 🟡 CHoCH Zones: Minor CHoCH (0.006900): A break and close below this level would invalidate bullish correction and confirm the shift in momentum. Major CHoCH (0.006840): The final confirmation of bearish dominance. A breach here opens the door for new lows, targeting long-term support areas. ⚔️ Smart Money Playbook: Current Move: Price is in bullish retracement from previous demand zone Watch Zone: 0.006975–0.006985 (Potential Smart Money sell zone) Reaction Setup: Bearish structure forms (e.g., M pattern, liquidity sweep, bearish engulfing) Price breaks minor CHoCH Sell Entry: After confirmation, with stops above reversal zone TP1: SR Interchange level TP2: Major CHoCH zone 📅 Fundamental Triggers Ahead: Watch for upcoming USD economic data (CPI, PPI, interest rate decisions) between June 11–14, which could act as catalysts for volatility and confirm technical setups. 🧠 Educational Note: This setup is a classic example of market structure shift, liquidity engineering, and order block theory — concepts used by banks and smart money traders. Retail traders often get trapped on the wrong side of these zones. Your edge lies in anticipating the trap, not reacting to it. 🎯 Conclusion: JPYUSD is offering a textbook Smart Money setup. The current retracement gives an opportunity to position early into a likely bearish continuation, provided structure confirms at the next reversal zone. Patience, discipline, and precise timing will be key to capitalizing on this move.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
Japanese Yen to Da Moon!I compared the yen to every single currency pair and USDJPY is the most volatile. BOJ will raise interest rates to 0.75%-1% by late 2025/early 2026. And IF the FED chooses to lower rates that will further exacerbate Yen strength. 103.156 TP, but TBH I see price breaking well past that point and yen will make new all time highs. The dollar will get desecrated across all currencies, the yen will destroy it the hardest. Most likely BTC will also peak around this same time period and youll see and end to the bull cycle and we will enter BTC bear cycle but that is beside the point. Potential Black Swan Event: the US enters into a recessionary environment, while I dont think this is likely bc everyone is saying that, it will be possible if we see a further escalation in the Ukraine conflict or if the US chooses to enter war with Iran. War is the only situation I see potential US recession. I predicted then yen would get dusted during COVID, now I predict yen will make never seen before gains for the next 5 years minimum. Let's see how this plays out.
Short
by CryptoKarmaker
2