Crypto world is a dangerous path.
In my opinion, if you want to make some good money you gotta « hit the road ».
Binance and Kucoin are both fundamentals.
KCS and BNB are the exchanges coins of the year.
Prolly more chances with KCS live (BNB will PRET asap).
You'll thank me later.
TP hit on the previous short as Coffee C moved below the previous Lower Low at 112.00. The price is still on a long term 1W Channel Down (RSI = 41.160, MACD = -3.390, Highs/Lows = -2.5643, B/BP = -9.5600) with 1D now in need of printing a Lower High (Williams = -45.358, Highs/Lows = 1.2521) between 114 and 117.50. The next TP for our KCU8 short is 100.000.
Clear Channel Down on 1D within a greater bearish channel on the Monthly chart (RSI = 42.309, MACD = -6.170, B/BP = -9.6160). Having made a Lower High at 121.40, it is currently on the best spot for a medium term short to at least the previous Lower Low at 112.60.
This can be a long term bottom for Coffee. I will be entering longs on Monday.
The monthly chart indicates this could be a gigantic double bottom at play.
CoT data is interesting, with large speculators going flat...
I expect the low printed here to hold, if we break this week's high it'll trigger a rally.
.... doubt it will happen this year. last year we had three severe frost scare days/weekend.
IMHO this market is where it is merely because of cautious buyers ahead of the season.
I see rangebound through July and if no frost happens more downward potential.
Technically speaking, the bull market appears to be over.
I see a bullish divergence on the daily chart for coffee. The MFI has made higher lows while price has made lower lows. I believe coffee is headed higher to at least the 50% level of 1.4585 (if not high 140's).
Coffee is already almost hitting the trendline formed on the Daily chart.
It broke the 4-hourly trendline some days ago so a bit of extra caution is needed; however, the Risk-Reward-Ratio looks quite promising.
Watch for the opening of the next 4H chart!
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
In percents away from all-time high & low by last close (32 Commodities)
Best regards :)
After the "healthy" correction, kc touched the 100 day MA around 153 as indicated previously as a potential target. Furthermore, we are hitting the lower end of the trend channel (blue).
I am looking for some support coming in here.
As vol softened during the sell off, threeways, selling put spread, buying call seem to be good long market, long vega strategies...
Market taking a breather after the recent rally. I would think that the market is taking a break from the rally for now. Corrective levels below are the 7 day MA at 164ish, 20 day MA at 158 and 100 day MA along with the lower line of the upsloping trend channel.
Option vol went out on the move, but commercials seems to be selling as physical prices in Brazil are...
Looks down to the 140 area for a test. However as long as the orange or blue trends hold, the upwards trend is still intact IMHO.
short call spreads above 165 in Dec or January might be a good idea. I would buy any puts as downside seems limited for the moment and option volatility might decline during a sell off diminishing returns on long option strategies....
I am bullish Coffee since a series of bullish momentum divergences started to develop in February, March and April. As with other commodities, I am convinced that the early 2016 lows were important cyclical lows. I am therefore bullish Coffee long-term. The weakening US Dollar should further support the entire commodities complex.
The latest correction brought...
Update on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance
On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal.
I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady.
Warehouse stocks in...
Seems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out.
Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions.
Quite oversold and we saw sell...
Pro Long (Chart):
- RSI and Stochastik created buy signal
- Orange support line
Pro Long (Physical):
- ICE warehouse stocks new lows
- spreads tightening ever so slightly
- still in middle to upper end of trend channel
- room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band
- long term trend still down
- risk/reward for long position not there
Coffee nearing the orange support line around 122 (2nd month continuation, about 119-120 front month ).
Interesting fact about this correction lower from 134 to 122 is that this is the first time in a couple years that we actually have an up-sloping support line (orange line).
If the orange support holds this could mark a longer term trend reversal.