Coffee is already almost hitting the trendline formed on the Daily chart.
It broke the 4-hourly trendline some days ago so a bit of extra caution is needed; however, the Risk-Reward-Ratio looks quite promising.
Watch for the opening of the next 4H chart!
Coffee is already almost hitting the trendline formed on the Daily chart.
It broke the 4-hourly trendline some days ago so a bit of extra caution is needed; however, the Risk-Reward-Ratio looks quite promising.
Watch for the opening of the next 4H chart!
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
.zip (with PDF`s) @ my Google Drive
In percents away from all-time high & low by last close (32 Commodities)
drive.google.com
Best regards :)
Aaron
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
44 COMMODITIES of Chicago, New York & londo (MA 100 & 200 inside bearish) @ drive.google.com
Best regards
Aaron
After the "healthy" correction, kc touched the 100 day MA around 153 as indicated previously as a potential target. Furthermore, we are hitting the lower end of the trend channel (blue).
I am looking for some support coming in here.
As vol softened during the sell off, threeways, selling put spread, buying call seem to be good long market, long vega strategies...
Market taking a breather after the recent rally. I would think that the market is taking a break from the rally for now. Corrective levels below are the 7 day MA at 164ish, 20 day MA at 158 and 100 day MA along with the lower line of the upsloping trend channel.
Option vol went out on the move, but commercials seems to be selling as physical prices in Brazil are...
Looks down to the 140 area for a test. However as long as the orange or blue trends hold, the upwards trend is still intact IMHO.
short call spreads above 165 in Dec or January might be a good idea. I would buy any puts as downside seems limited for the moment and option volatility might decline during a sell off diminishing returns on long option strategies....
I am bullish Coffee since a series of bullish momentum divergences started to develop in February, March and April. As with other commodities, I am convinced that the early 2016 lows were important cyclical lows. I am therefore bullish Coffee long-term. The weakening US Dollar should further support the entire commodities complex.
The latest correction brought...
Update on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance
On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal.
I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady.
Warehouse stocks in...
Seems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out.
Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions.
Quite oversold and we saw sell...
Pro Long (Chart):
- RSI and Stochastik created buy signal
- Orange support line
Pro Long (Physical):
- ICE warehouse stocks new lows
- spreads tightening ever so slightly
Contra (Chart):
- still in middle to upper end of trend channel
- room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band
- long term trend still down
- risk/reward for long position not there
IMHO I...
Coffee nearing the orange support line around 122 (2nd month continuation, about 119-120 front month ).
Interesting fact about this correction lower from 134 to 122 is that this is the first time in a couple years that we actually have an up-sloping support line (orange line).
If the orange support holds this could mark a longer term trend reversal.
On the...
Reaching oversold territory based on RSI, Stoch and running into support on lower BB.
Market overall sideways and lower, BUT seasonally August is a strong month
Buy U15 at 118.00 --> target 130, Stop 112.00
exit at target or before First Notice Day
KC put in its strongest weekly performance in about a month, reinforcing the line in the sand at the 180 horizontal support zone as seen in the attached chart. The 180 level also coincides with the uptrend support line connecting the low earlier in the week with the January 2014 low. Based on the renewed upward momentum these last few days, and the apparent...
KC broke tested for the fourth time the support at current level and broke, if there's follow through, it's a good short. Historically, July should be the seasonal low. COT report- commercial is not hedging at this point.
