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Kc1

KC shortUpdate on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal. I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady. Warehouse stocks in EU and US plenty as well. Dont get me wrong, as shown in the blue channel, even if we have a correction lower, the blue trend channel might indicate a change in trend, however the frost damage is simply not there and in order to rally, this market would need breaking news like that.... without anything of that sort coming out, I see a correction lower before making new highs. Still, knowing coffee, I remain short with 1x2 calendar spreads, buying the downside 1 leg in one month and selling 2 lower puts in a month further back.
KShort
by mjhillpp
2
No frost in BrazilSeems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out. Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions. Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago. Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days). I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega will come in and provide some nice profits. Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month. Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action. Support at 134, then nothing until 125
KShort
by mjhillpp
5
Arabica Coffee (KC) Breaks Downtrend Since Mid OctoberKC put in its strongest weekly performance in about a month, reinforcing the line in the sand at the 180 horizontal support zone as seen in the attached chart. The 180 level also coincides with the uptrend support line connecting the low earlier in the week with the January 2014 low. Based on the renewed upward momentum these last few days, and the apparent break of the downtrend from mid October, it would appear that the uptrend line break (which appeared last week if you imagine an uptrend support line connecting the same January 2014 low with the July and September 2014 lows) gave a false sell signal alert. The daily Stochastics and RSI are now trending up strongly from oversold levels, while the daily MACD is beginning to positively crossover. Some profittaking can be expected early next week, but the general trend in the next few weeks should be up, with a target next week around 205-206, followed by the next target at the October high. Feel free to visit stks.co for yesterday's technical analysis on $KC_F, $VIX, $ES_F, $NQ_F, $EURUSD, $DX_F, $SB_F, $AUDUSD, $CT_F, $EURCHF, $GBPUSD, $SI_F Website: tradablepatterns.com FB: facebook.com Stocktwits: stocktwits.com Twitter: twitter.com Linkedin: www.linkedin.com YouTube: www.youtube.com Google+: google.com Email: info@tradablepatterns.com
KLong
by TradablePatterns