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KRE

FOMC Summary | QQQ & SPY Analysis | KRE & PACW Bust | QCOM ER- FOMC Summary: 0.25bps hike today, Powell saying no cuts this year may made the market a bit red but he said that last time too. I personally think it was because market participants this time wanting to hear a pause due to it being so price in but he didnt say any of that so market went down. - QQQ bounce off of Key support yesterday but broke below today - NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY both below 12 EMA - NASDAQ:PACW NEWS wanting to sell its entire bank AH, causing market to drop - NASDAQ:QCOM ER saying lower demand on phones made NASDAQ:AAPL drop
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ArcadiaTrading
2
🔥 Failling Banks BULLISH For Bitcoin & Gold: But Why?Over the last two months there's been several that have gone insolvent and got eventually bailed out by the FED, or have been taken over by larger banks. Initially, this looming crisis caused a lot of stress in the markets during the first two weeks of March. However, once Silicon Valley Bank got shut down & bailed out we saw a huge bullish move in both Bitcoin (helped by a short-squeeze) and Gold, whilst the Regional Banks ETF continued to make new lows. Yesterday, there was a another big bank that has gone insolvent and has been taken over by JPMorgan. Stocks fell significantly and the Regional Banks ETF made new lows because of sell-offs in other banks. This sparked another bullish move in both Bitcoin and Gold because investors are fleeing to safety. Physicals commodities like Bitcoin and Gold don't need a bank. You can buy them and store them either on your own PC or in your house. Furthermore, big banks like JPMorgan and the like saw their balances swell because they are deemed to big to fail, unlike smaller regional banks. With the FED most likely increasing the interest rates further, there's a decent probability for more (regional) banks to fail. This will most likely be bullish for Bitcoin, since more money will flock to the relative safety that Bitcoin offers. If the banking crisis will get very severe with, for example, big banks failing, it can spark a massive move of BTC towards >50k. The technicals don't support a move like this, but a macro-related event like big banks failing could trigger a massive influx of buyers. Future will tell. All we can see now is that regional banks in distress is triggering a flight to 'safe' commodities like BTC and Gold.
AMEX:KRELong
by FieryTrading
6
The Week Ahead: ARKK, KRE, GDXJ; CFLT, COIN, DASH EarningsWith broad market implied volatility having crushed out mightily over the past couple of weeks, I'm left scrounging around in the exchange-traded fund and/or (ugh) single name space for premium. There aren't a lot of underlyings with ideal IVR/IV metrics to play, but there are a few things that still have decent IV in them, even if it isn't toward the top of its 52-week range. There isn't anything in the exchange-traded fund space as of Friday close with an IVR >50%, but there are a few with 30-day IV >35% (which is the combination of metrics I like to see). Here there are, ranked by 30-day with stuff <$20/share weekend weeded out: ARKK 41 KRE 41 KWEB 39 GDXJ 37 USO 36 XOP 35 Pictured here is a fairly plain Jane delta neutral short strangle in ARKK in the June expiry with the short legs camped out around the 16 delta, paying 1.00 at the mid price with break evens at 30 and 43. The KRE June 16th 37/48 short strangle (16 delta) is paying around 1.25. The KWEB June 16th 28 short straddle is paying around 1.95. (Going 16 delta short strangle didn't end up paying much; the 26/30.5 was paying .55). The GDXJ June 16th 35/46 short strangle (17 delta) is paying 1.04 at the mid. The USO June 16th 60.76 short strangle (17 delta) is paying 1.65 at the mid. The XOP June 16th 112/143 short strangle (17 delta) is paying 3.04 at the mid. Broad Market Ugh. Why even go here ... . Broad market exchange-traded funds, ranked by 30-day IV: IWM 21.3% QQQ 20.6% EFA 16.2% SPY 16.1% DIA 14.3% Bond Funds My only observation here is to note that TLT premium is better than SPY's (as is EMB's). EMB 20.9% TLT 17.0% HYG 9.5% AGG 7.4% And, of course, there are earnings ... . I've screened and ranked these by >50% 30-day IV, as well as for options liquidity and thrown out underlyings that are trading at <$20/share: COIN 111.2 (Thursday after market close) W 107 RUN 92.9 CFLT 80.9 (Wednesday after market close) PPL 73.4 (Thursday before market open) FOUR 72.0 DASH 70.2 (Thursday after market close) The drawbacks to W, RUN, and FOUR involve strike to strike granularity, which is why I haven't bothered to look up their announcement days and times. W and RUN have 1 1/2 wides; FOUR, has 5-wides. Not having 1-wides can not only make setting up delta neutral a pain; it can making rolling out a pain if you have to do that to manage the trade, so I generally avoid underlyings with weak strike granularity for earnings plays that are generally just made to take advantage of the ensuing volatility contraction. I would consequently lean toward plays in COIN, CFLT, PPL, and DASH for volatility contraction plays, looking to get into CFLT, Wednesday before market close (since it announces Wednesday after market close). PPL, Wednesday before market close (since it announces Thursday before market open). COIN, Thursday, before market close. DASH, Thursday, before market close. Preliminary Setups: CFLT May 19th 22.5 Short Straddle, 3.60 credit, 18.90/26.10 break evens PPL: May 19th 29 Short Straddle, 1.03 credit. (Well, that's ... weak sauce. It's possible that the platform is misreporting 30-day, so this will have to be checked during the NY session). COIN: May 19th 45/67 Short Strangle, 3.29 credit. (A smidge pesky, since I'd want to set up my put side tent somewhere between the 45 and the 40 strike, where there aren't any strikes at the moment.) DASH: May 19th 52/73 Short Strangle, 1.95 credit.
CBOE:ARKK
by NaughtyPines
2
EWBC - Next Shoe/Bank to Drop.Controlled Demolition in ProgressGood Friday but not for EWBC and $KRE components. Controlled Demolition in Progress. Treasury and FDIC demonstrated zero interest saving shareholders of SIVB (wiped out, the buyer of assets got $16B+guarantees for loans). Same will go for the rest of $KRE = any assets are at deep dis count. Can't save them all (nor they would want to). Industry consolidation. The End. The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations...
NASDAQ:EWBCShort
by ProfitProphet911
4
KRE Regionals still not out of the woods.Checking out a chart of KRE the regional banks have been the epicenter of the latest banking crisis. The FED has responded with BTFP to try and get ahead of the problem of mark to market losses on MBS and treasury holdings, but is it enough? I would have expected confidence in the sector to be somewhat restored and stock prices to have a relief rally. But prices have been stuck in a range as the broader market continues to climb. This is concerning for anyone who thinks this rally has more legs and something I'll be monitoring closely in the coming weeks.
AMEX:KRE
by The_Pain_Trade
$QQQ BULLS Continue but at KEY Resistance, PCE Data tomorrow- SPY QQQ gapped up again but ended up closing within todays trading range, unlike yesterday bulls have a strong follow through after open. - PCE Data tomorrow morning 5:30am PST - QQQ closed around key daily resistance. - End of the quarter and month rebalancing tomorrow will bring lots of volatility - Will XLF / KRE join team bull or QQQ / SMH join team Bear? - i am slightly more bearish at this level but so far theres no red flags for the bulls at all for QQQ SMH SOXX
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ArcadiaTrading
3
Daily $QQQ Market Breakdown, Potential Bull flags in Tech Sector- SPY and QQQ have been very choppy due to sectors rotating around may potentially continue unless we start seeing XLF forming daily uptrends and joining team bull. - Or we see XLF / KRE go sideways and QQQ and SOXX/ SMH join team Bear. As of now there are zero red flags for QQQ and SMH daily time frame so i am slightly more bullish in my intra-day scalp trades. Wont be holding anything overnight until we get a clear direction in the market i am open to both bearish or bullish trades just want a clear direction.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by ArcadiaTrading
$QQQ $SPY BEAR LACK Follow Through, Key Levels to Watch- $SPY $QQQ bear had all its chances to bring QQQ down after a bear break this morning out of the tightening range we had in the last 4 days but bears couldn't follow through. - Want to see QQQ Bulls gain back its hourly uptrend and break above 308 area of resistance. - want to see XLF / KRE bounce for SPY & SPX to break out of its equilibrium bull. of course vice versa for the bears. - zero red flags on the daily time frame for SOXX / SMH / QQQ
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by ArcadiaTrading
2
$QQQ Equilibrium In Play till Monday. $SPY need 1h trend change- QQQ Equailibirum key break will be Monday which will determine which way SPY is going to move. - SOXX / SMH turning from lead bull into lead bear today, weakest sector since Dec 2022. May drag down QQQ if it continues. Will short this sector if it continues on SOXS. - SPY bulls want to see a hourly uptrend form, Bears want to see QQQ bear break Equilibrium and drag SPY down. - XLF / KRE gapped down and bounced all day, big enough bounce now for bulls to try to form an hourly uptrend, but before that bulls has changed nothing on the daily timeframe.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by ArcadiaTrading
KEY TOP WATCH $QQQ Equilibrium Pattern Tomorrow - QQQ equilibrium pattern is going to be key break for which direction market is going the next couple days, - XLF KRE bear break to new lows will break QQQ equilibrium bear and then drag SPY down even more. - Yellen flip flop - no deposit guarantee yesterday to today it will be. (the more they flip flop back and forth the more we see them as less confident) - SOXX / SMH semi sector also helping QQQ with such a strong move up, QQQ bear break will likely mark a temporary top on this sector. need to see NVDA drop too.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ArcadiaTrading
FOMC Price Reaction Analysis, Support & Resistance, $SPY/$QQQ- Looking for a hourly Bear flag on SPY and QQQ after this huge move down. - XLF and KRE top watch to see if we break fear lows/52 week low. Fear would likely come back in if we do break the lows - looking for SOXX/SMH to go from lead bull turning into lead bear - Rate hikes is a head wind more for QQQ then SPY, so after Powell saying no rate cuts this year, we would likely see QQQ lead to the down side as well just like it lead to the upside. - FOMC reaction day after is always the real move, so tomorrow we need to see if bears can follow through or todays just a small reaction move.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ArcadiaTrading
Demonstration of the Wave principle in real life KRE If you want a demonstration of the Wave principle in real life look no longer than KRE. It is a textbook example of an impulse wave started on 23 March 20220. Wave almost 61.8% retracement of Wave 1 Extended 3rd wave with a 2.00 multiple of Wave 1 Wave 4 has almost 0.382 retracement of Wave 3. And the most important one: the entire impulse wave is divided perfectly into golden ratio. 0618/0382 This impulse wave finished on 19th January 2022. Since then the corrective phase has begun. We have 2 viable scenarios over here Scenario nr 1. An ABC zigzag We clearly have a minor impulse wave down finished in 5 waves that could be intermediate wave (A).-finished on 16th June 2022 Followed by a running flat ABC for wave B. notice the truncation of minor wave C of (B) warning us about the underlying selling pressure in KRE. And that's precisely what happened in wave (C). That is what an impulse wave 3 of (3) looks like. Fear response appropriate! The Fibonacci ratio for wave (B) is precisely 0.382 retracement of wave A . The most common one in a zigzag. Guideline of equality Waves (A) = Wave (C) at $42.65 normal in a zigzag. So with this interpretation probably one more minor wave down and everything will be roses in the regional banks. What is not normal in a zigzag is the slope of wave C should be less aggressive. So this brings me to an alternate count. Scenario nr 2 Because of the slope and severity of this late sale this makes it a wave 3. As I said before has all the marks of impulse wave 3 down in this case. So the whole correction becomes just waves 123 with waves 4 and 5 still to come to make just wave (A) of the decline. I will leave it up to you to decide which interpretation is most appropriate. Legal Disclaimer: The information presented in this analysis is solely for informational purposes and does not serve as financial advice.
AMEX:KRE
by WavesInvesting
1