This chart shows the SPX/M2 and essentially paints a picture of the SPX when accounting for inflation.
All the "gains" made in the time following the 2008 crash, after factoring inflation in, simply put price or "value" back to where it peaked.
How interesting that the 2020 crash should occur at such a pivotal TA level, forming a near perfect sweep of highs...
Lets take a look at the historical charts to compare silver to other mountains of money to gauge value. Is silver cheap or is it expensive? how would we know. Lets investigate and form an opinion. SILVER SLV GOLD GLD CEF
M2 is the money in circulation issued by the government.
M2REAL is the real value of M2 deflated by the CPIAUCSL (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers).
M2REAL is in an infinite uptrend, with a downward correction now.
The correlation with SPX is positive as both are falling.
A change in...
"Russell 2000 / M2 Money Supply" ratio
1) It moves in a horizental trend in the long-term.
2) %20 discounted compared to 500 days MVA.
3) Nearly touched a major long-term horizental support.
Of course it can also move more downwards if the crisis/war deepens but we can say that the probability of upwards move is more likely.
First target: 0.095-0.100
This is somewhat an educational post as well as some TA with possible directions to watch for.
update on #QQQ (#Nasdaq 100 ETF) vs #M2SL seasonally adjusted money flow in billions.
When indexing this chart to a scale of 100 we may have a clearer picture of what is going to play out, important areas to watch for that may present opportunity and...
The fundamental cheapness of gold is a fairly sideways chart. We are approaching a similar cheapness as was seen in 1999 to 2003 where we saw a ~700% rally until 2012. When we established a top in the channel in 2012, the market bottomed. It appears currently that it's not done selling off and has some room to run down, or is about to establish a sideways bottom...
Some people say that things are getting cheap. I agree, they are in the process of getting cheap, but we're not quite there yet as far as historical bottoms go. The Russell isn't that cheap yet, still twice as expensive as in 2009. Unless a true miracle happens, it's hard to see any upside in this market as far as real wealth terms(as opposed to numerical price...
We are dead cat bouncing. #Biden is attempting to reduce the price of oil via favourable taxes so companies will produce more oil. This could help CPI moderate.
Supply chains remain crippled, so this dead cat rolls over on the next piece of bad news.
This could come in the form of unemployment start to accelerate. In prior recessions, unemployment typically...
SPX / M2 is in an uptrend as per ascending channel.
It last bottomed in the 2008-2009 crisis.
Currently struggling in this multi-decades resistance area (red rectangle). Break it in the following months and the road is clear for another top in 2038.
The sharpest decline in a very long time.
Clearly, a drain is underway.
FED will release its updated balance sheet
After a $51B Drain followed by a $4B add....
We'll see how well roll off indicated after
June 15th has been handeld.
8-minute video where I gloss over the big picture stuff relating to the Markets and as they relate to the M2 (WM2NS) Money Stock.
This is a High Time Frame analysis of the Market charts like the Dow and SP500 vs the Printing of Money and the increase in Money Supply.
Basically, the entire market exists as a function of printing money, organic growth hasn't been...
This is a medium term swing/position trade that has a pretty good chance to play out. Check out this fib idea below which underscores the idea. Obviously, don't panic buy unless you like riskier trades. Ease into your entry! June thru October looks like a decent entry if nothing too crazy happens, but a surprise via some global disaster could RUIN this trade....