What does it do You see what could be a continuation inverse head and shoulders and the two targets. PLAN B hot alot of people wrecked last time, and he still adamant #BTC will hit $500K this cycle. The chart says otherwise and more likely we peak above the high meet the linear target & double top (at least for now ) what say you?
1. Liquidity and Investments: An increase in M2 typically means there is more liquidity in the economy, as consumers and businesses have more cash or cash-equivalents at their disposal. This excess liquidity can lead to increased investment in stocks, including those in the S&P 500, driving up stock prices. 2. Economic Expectations: A growing money supply can...
Bitcoin is highly correlated with the M2 money supply. Saying this, when the correlation is negative, i.e., periods when BTC is declining but the M2 is increasing, it is usually a good time to accumulate BTC as the price will sooner or later catch up with its long-term correlation with the M2.
M2 money supply reaches its peak corresponding with a decline in the stock market. Coincidence? No. In April 2020 I posted the same chart with the words "#MMT Everything" Gov't Free money backstopped the risk to investors fueling a massive Stock Market Rally and Inflation. Euphoria on Steroids. Most made the mistake of reading market Euphoria as evidence...
In order to get the decimal point to the right of a number, I had to multiply AMEX:SPY by 1,000,000,000,000 or 1 Trillion. The price of the market is unchanged since January 1997 with the adjustment. That is an incredible 26 years where prices haven't bean 'inflation as measured by the quantity of money' floating around in the banking system. Nominally, our...
We've been stuck at 50% real valuation of '00 crash for 23 years. 2007, 07, 18, 20 and 22 crash all caped by the same level. Big questions is, up or down? For now down. 3M rejection and currently retesting until Jan. But if we break the ATH on the nominal SPX chart will be running hard! There you will have your blow of top. Not sure if project zimbabwe...
The green trendline serves as the ultimate go signal, and a close above it would typically signify the onset of the parabolic movement stage for the asset. Besides that, every bounce presents potential trade opportunities for those who prefer not to hold this particular asset class long-term. I foresee the first substantial test for this asset class occurring...
This in the past five years has been a very strong topping signal, I'm not sure if there's much more to add. The platform wants me to add some blurb to meet it's guidelines but what can I tell? The chart speaks for itself. Hope you've found it useful, it's certainly one of many things I have included into my market model.
MACRO MONDAY 8 S&P500 / M2 Money Supply ( SP:SPX / $WMN2S) M2 is a broad measure of the US money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and other types of deposits that are readily convertible to cash such as CDs. M2 is seen as a reliable metric for forecasting/predicting inflation and for this reason it can be used as leading economic indicator....
In today's chart, we look at the S&P500 divided by the WM2NS (money supply). The upward trend of the S&P500 has been unstoppable since 2009 and has climbed to new heights since 2013. > However, as soon as you divide the chart with the "MONEY QUANTITY", the unadulterated chart = the reluctant truth is revealed. = Regardless of the rising price of the index, it...
#MMT Told you that QE is not inflationary. It is simply "Reserves in the banking system". Then they told you "In an #MMT world...." Unfortunately, the self-evident data you see in the chart completely destroys their silly little theories and models. I want to be clear, QE does not increase the public debt. However, it does change the form of money from a bond...
As the chart clearly shows more deficits more debt more money supply has not translated to an increased labor force participation. I am sure you have heard Politicians & Economic hacks like MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) use the words "Simulate the economy with deficits". Well in reality there hasn't been much "Stimulating" going on for the labor force...
M2 is getting a lot of attention, but is it really driving markets? M2 is the Federal Reserve's estimate of the total money supply including all cash hand, money deposited in checking accounts, savings accounts, and other short term savings. The rate of change for M2 over the past 3 years has been the steepest incline and decline in the M2 rate of change in...
SPX has produced very little headway relative to the money supply (M2) As history has shown we are likely to see a massive move lower after double topping that could test Covid lows or worse. Remember no one chart is the holy grail of analysis. This is just one chart.
The Fed is damned by inflation if they print, damned by bank runs if they dont print. And with recession on the way, history shows we could plumb to new lows if the Fed only prints enough to backstop banks and pensions. Early 2000s and early 1930s were two such cases where the Fed aggressively lowered rates for well over 18 months but markets continued to trend...
Just a quick comparison between the gold price and overall money supply. Seems like there may be some catching up to do.
The assumptions are that money printing is real inflation as is often stated by Peter Schiff and M2 money supply is a good measure of the amount of money that has been printed into circulation. This data goes back to 1959 and makes the dot com bubble in 2000 look much more exuberant than current price levels. There is room for downside from here as the 1966 to...
Here's SPY x Fed Funds Rate / M2 Money Supply. The only times this metric was this high was in 2000 and 2007 when stock market was in Bubble status. Looks like SPY is overvalued. What do you think?