There's a general narrative going around of "buy the dip" and "look at these undervalued stocks". The goal here is not to compare Facebook to Microsoft to Paypal as companies, but to look at relative price structure between a handful of popular stocks. In this case, we have a few giant companies; Tesla , Facebook and Microsoft , charted against the smaller Paypal...
Money supply expansion is like roaches. It goes everywhere you don't want, and nobody can control it. Plotted here is the money supply to futures ratio of soy, wheat, corn, and sugar. We have the potential to see a massive increase in food speculation, simply because it's not risky. When equities burst, the money goes anywhere it can. So we should expect a...
Market participants are often fooled by the dissonance of nominal yields versus real yields. Ie, what is the nominal return of the S&P, versus the return of the S&P per dollar that exists? The money supply has become merely a proxy to supply hedgers against the dollar with scarce assets via cheap, practically free, dollars. But if you look at the real rate of...
Yellow = equal average weighted basket of Wheat + Soy + Corn + Sugar White = M2
If you look at the S&P500 index ( TVC:SPX ) chart, you find that it has reached, and even surpassed, the previous high at 3393.5 which occurred just before the CV19 drop in March 2020. The last close on 31 December 2020 was at 3760. However, many attribute the recent V-shaped recovery to the Quantitative Easing scheme by the Federal Reserve, which makes a lot of...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD In an era of exceptional money printing, macro trends must be looked at through the lens of the money supply. Has BTCUSD/M2SL reached critical trendline support, or will we go back to ~$31k and test once more the 2017 ATH normalized to M2?
A large player seems to be making decisions based in real terms, which is not revealed by the socially accepted AAPL chart which is based in dollars. Will future traders be enticed by such numerical values if it eventually harms them? To be clear, in this idea: "real terms" = the price as a proportion of total dollars, adjusted for debasement TOTAL_USD = M2, a...
Extremes tend to get more extreme, yes but we don't ignore it because the meme sounds good. Having said that it's only a piece of the puzzle not the holy grail of analysis. Worth keeping an eye on this chart. Rising wedges tend to sharply correct. Pay attention to the message of the markets and let the charts tell the story.
A conundrum? No, absolutely not. 2022 it will reverse as scarcity becomes undeniable. ____________________________________________ Why are we losing Jobs in the Retail Economy? Why was Black Friday / Cyber Monday dismal? _____________________________________________ Herding Cats - if you've ever attempted it, can be quite challenging.
BTC model 5 update. Very immediate scenario. Target: 140k$
The parabolic ascents seem to end in a couple cases around spring 2023 (April) if the parabolas are correct and hold up. This is all based on the magic of compounding (debt). At some point the debt bubble gets too big and pops.
Further Expansion is ahead. Price Instability. A Macro Environment unseen in Centuries. ______________________________________ Longer-Term the Trend is clear, M2 never recedes it only expands. Timing the next move in Equities... will be tied to later moves far higher. ______________________________________ Probability - 100% The Dow has Extensions to...
Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Keogh balances at...
The price of BTCUSD keeps rising up, but so does the supply of broad money (M2). So far this year both have grown 227% and 25% respectively. There is more money now than there was at the beginning of the year, 1/4 more. Based on this metric alone, one dollar is worth 3/4 of what it was worth at the beginning of 2020. Today: One BTC is worth 2.27 BTC from a year...
M2 consists of small-denomination time deposits >$100K - less IRA and Keogh balances at Institutions. Balances in retail MMFs - less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. M2: Savings Deposits, Small-Denomination Time Deposits, Retail Money Market Funds, + M1. ____________________________________ In Sum, Consumer Economic activity and...
Just the Charts..Welcome to the 50th Anniversary of the Nixon Temporary Fix to fund wars overseas. This is the end of the crooked, evil and war driven dollar that enslaves the poor and youth. Wage Love, not war. What are we fighting for? Evil dollars? Let math and true guide us forward! CHARGE WALL STREET! CHARGE CROOKED BANKSTERS AND GOVERNMENTS! Civil...