Interesting compare to the crash off in money supply velocity to Amgen’s delayed bull run Maybe something to do with their business model. Also compares to money supply and seems to correlate with increase in money supply dollars finding their new homes as we can see as the money supply velocity drops off drastically.
This is not entirely about a trade, moreso a thought experiment of the future to come. After the great 2020 coof liquidity crisis a brief and severe expansion of the monetary supply occurred in order to bail out the entire economy. This seems to be followed by an equivalent expansion rate mirrored by the 1971 expansion. The marked difference this time is that the...
The VVIX was cornered to the 105s, as soon as this Level was violated the 100 Level. Gaps were filled on the VIX M1 October as we began to Settle November. This left a lower Gap for the settled Front Month / M1 - November. The HIgh Low Close - 16.10 / 14.70 / 15.35 for October Settelement. The HIgh Low Close - 19.70 / 19.30 / 19.325 for November...
The squeeze is on, as M@V declines, there will be a Point of Recognition when the average consumer sees Food Prices as a RISK. At that time in the not too distant future, they will begin to spend and hoard forward. We are approaching the point at which on a percentage basis - this has occurred Historically speaking. The panic Point throughout History has been...
Important Note, the Roll Yield is important for the VXX. I have heard countless YouTube and Forum Gurus dismiss the VXX as a Junk Derivative. A Scam... Nothing is further from the Truth. That statement demonstrates how there are far too many "Gurus" with no understanding of Volatility itself. The VXX is comprised of the 30 day Short Term Rolling...
BTC / M1SL+M2SL Bitcoin price to ~164 million dollars per coin after the next cycle. As high as ~4 million this cycle. Ask me how crazy I am. Yes.
Just a Theory that bitcoin price should push higher depending on how fast M2 increases. I'm thinking bitcoin goes 54% higher than it normally would have give or take a couple percentage points. And that percentage isn't even set in stone, the number could be lower or way higher by the end of the market cycle. I'm thinking the top could be anywhere in between...
Chart is self explainatory. America #1. We're going to the moon.
Double top & trend break. Removing the effect of M2 is a way to view the market without the manipulation of extreme money printing.
Pareto's law says that roughly the top 20% of the market constituents should roughly represent 80% roughly of the overall market cap, and vice versa: the bottom 80% of constituents will represent 20% of the overall market cap. When price seems irrational, and higher cap stocks start to represent more of the market than previous decades, and thus are given a...
SPX back in the resistance / distribution zone for the SPX over money supply on a bearish divergence. September / October will be interesting
Pivotal events of the last two decades compared with the S&P and the money supply. M2 is a broad indicator that includes cash, checkings, and liquid assets such as money market securities and cash equivalents. Although M2 exploded 42% during the COVID pandemic, much of this money is locked up in FED REPO agreements and artificially inflated on the Fed balance...
If the m2 money supply increased by 40% within 1 year, wouldn't make sense that the bitcoin price would be 40% higher than it normally would be. This chart shows a macro price target of around 188k priced against m2, which would give a normally priced bitcoin target around 250k.
For HK, this is the most important Chart we follow and obey. The larger TF here - Daily - perfectly illustrates how Price moves along a trend range... Until it snaps and collapses quickly. This is precisely what we believe will occur in the next few weeks or perhaps sooner. We will see a sharp reversal with 2 distinct thrusts down as primaries. Time is running...
M2SL growth was approximately linear before the COVID dump last year. Money printing has increased since and thus it makes sense to divide the market by this increase in money production to view approximately how the market would be performing pre-COVID. We can see that by doing so, the S&P 500 is about to retest the ATH from before the COVID dump. A rejection...
Looks like the bond market knows something stocks don't (again). Same divergence here that we saw running up to the March 2020 crash. We're looking at SPY/M2 compared to the US10Y yield (in white). The last time the 10Y yield was in free fall, stocks continued to climb, ignoring the signal, only to crash a couple months after the divernegce began. Let's see what...
While I wouldn't short the S&P500, I nonetheless would be cautious if I invested in this index, as it has rarely been that expensive, once adjusted for monetary growth. The time might have come to focus on undervalued sectors (such as commodity producers) or countries (like Russia or Singapore), rather than investing passively. Shorter-term investors might also...
Next week is critical to see if we break out of this long term channel. The last several times we have reached this resistance, the reaction has been muted, but the momentum structure in particular is nost most similar to February of 2020 which warrants paying closer attention.