Get started

Middleeast

GOLD situation !The price is currently moving inside a bullish wedge, and it has just broken below the 4370 support level. We now need to wait for confirmation with a bearish candle. If this confirmation occurs, the price can drop toward the bottom of the wedge around 4170, and from there it may pump upward. Just keep in mind: After the market opens, the price can show a temporary bullish move to trap retail traders, so stay cautious. Gold will not experience a significant bullish rally until the Middle East situation is resolved.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by CobraVanguard
EURUSD H1 Bearish Retracement Setup Below NWOG Resistance📝 Description On OANDA:EURUSD H1, price is reacting from a premium resistance cluster near the NWOG + H1 FVG zone. The current structure suggests a temporary bearish retracement after failing to sustain bullish continuation above intraday highs. Sellers are beginning to defend the premium area, increasing the probability of a downside move toward lower imbalances. ________________________________________ 📉 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bearish Preferred Setup: • Entry: 1.17673 • Stop Loss: 1.17850 • TP1: 1.17501 • TP2: 1.17387 • TP3: 1.17240 ________________________________________ 🧠 ICT & SMC Notes • Price tapped into a premium NWOG resistance zone • H1 Fair Value Gap acting as bearish reaction area • Internal sell-side liquidity rests below current structure • Bearish retracement likely before any higher timeframe continuation ________________________________________ 📌 Summary As long as EURUSD remains below the NWOG resistance region around 1.1775, short-term downside continuation toward 1.1724 remains favored. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment With the growing possibility of renewed conflict in the Middle East, markets are moving back toward safe-haven positioning. This shift is supporting USD strength, keeping EURUSD biased to the downside as geopolitical risks remain elevated. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
Short
by TradingFinder
Should we replace crude oil with gold???This is just an analysis and not a signal to buy or sell. —————————————————————- According to the analysis done on gold (banking style analysis), we currently have various selling positions (pullback, breaking white lines and news). As you can see, gold is currently in a downtrend and this trend, in my experience, will continue in this direction until it stabilizes. —————————————————————— Political analysis: The economic war in the Middle East (Mena region) has reached its peak. The exports of Arab countries have stopped due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has caused us to have neither imports nor exports. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the US naval blockade have caused the price of oil to increase sharply. Whenever the price of oil increases!! The price of gold decreases and that is why gold is in a downtrend. Iliya rayati
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Iliyarayati
2
Why UAE quit OPEC? Ihfar ya habibi, ihfar (Drill baby, drill)The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC effective May 1, in a major blow to the oil cartel. In February, the UAE was OPEC’s third-largest producer, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The UAE has said its decision is not a response to years of Saudi-led production cuts. However, they are now expected to ramp up production, which might have a natural downward pressure on oil prices. Before February 28, the UAE produced around 3.4 million barrels of crude per day. Analysts estimate it has the capacity to produce roughly 5 million barrels per day. As they say in AUE “Ihfar ya habibi, ihfar” (drill baby, drill). A big question is whether the UAE’s departure encourages other members to reconsider abandoning OPEC’s capped-production model. If it does, it could signal a broader sell off in energy markets
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by BlackBull Markets
Supply shortfall might continue to support aluminum prices.Aluminum prices recently surged following facility damage at a major Middle East producer, fueling expectations of a 900,000 metric ton supply deficit in 2Q2026. Compounding supply constraints, China, the world’s largest producer, reported a 2.2% YoY decrease in Mar output, driven by escalating costs and scheduled maintenance. Meanwhile, robust demand from the solar, battery pack, and automotive sectors continues to exacerbate the shortfall, providing further upside momentum to prices. Technically, XALUSD trades above both extension EMAs, signaling a sustained bullish trend. Should XALUSD breach resistance at 3730, the price could rise further to test the 4-year high at 3880. Conversely, a break below 3530 could lead to a retest of the next support level at 3415. By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness
FUSIONMARKETS:XALUSDLong
by WiseLeoTrading
Finally a closing above Mother line For Nifty. Today finally we got a closing in Nifty above Mother line which was at 24189. the closing we got was 24231. This is a good sign. The only worry is the Nifty should give a confirmation candle above today's closing and there is no further bad news related to ceasefire. We hope that the US and Iran deal gets going. In such a scenario we can well and truly see a V shaped recovery for Nifty. The Green lines in the chart are support zones and red lines in the chart are resistance zones. Hormuz blockade is still a massive worrying factor, Ceasefire is on a thin ice sheet still fragile, still there are factors which can combust peace in a jiffy, with the hope that peace prevails let us hope for a recovery of sorts for Nifty. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work or they have worked in Past Present of future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Charts do not represent anything. We are just showing positive and negative aspects of the stock. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We are not a SEBI registered Research analyst. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Crude Reclaims $90+ on Fragile Ceasefire and Hormuz RisksAs we enter Q2 2026, crude oil prices continue to point toward further upside risks in line with ongoing energy disruptions in the Middle East, despite headlines on potential de-escalations. From a price action perspective, crude is: - Holding near the 2023 highs and resistance at $88–93 per barrel - Showing a strong rejection from the $84 zone - Persistently Closing near the $100 mark as markets enter the sixth week of the Middle East conflict, keeping the upside scenario favored at the start of the quarter Bullish scenario A close above 93 and 110 on WTI and 115 on Brent would extend upside projections toward the 118 yearly high and further into the 135–157 range, signaling continued disruption to energy supply, infrastructure, and alternative routing around Hormuz. Upside levels are forecasted via the Fibonacci extension tool placed between the lows of 2020, highs of 2022, and lows of 2025. Bearish scenario A close below 89 would extend short-term downside risks toward the 84, 82, and 74 zones, aligning with the highs of 2025 and previous Middle East conflict levels, where support may emerge. A break below these levels could shift price action back toward the $67 - $60 zone, in line with broader policy-driven normalization. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREX.com
Bitcoin RoadmapToday, I want to share with you a mid-term outlook on Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) by analyzing it in a higher time frame—specifically, a 6-hour time frame—which could trigger a bullish move for Bitcoin, so stay with me. In general, financial market movements over the past month have been heavily influenced by the military conflict in the Middle East, as well as statements by politicians like Trump, which can rapidly shift the direction of financial markets. On the other hand, financial markets, like gold( OANDA:XAUUSD ), the S&P 500 index( FX:SPX500 ), and crypto, have shown a high correlation and tend to pump or dump together. Bitcoin is currently trying to break the resistance zone($70,100-$68,790) and the upper line of the descending channel, which I believe will happen in the coming hours. From an Elliott Wave theory perspective, considering Bitcoin’s movements over the past two months, it seems that Bitcoin completed its main wave A as a leading diagonal, and the main wave B is forming inside this descending channel. Thus, we can expect a bullish impulsive wave after breaking the upper line of the descending channel. I expect that Bitcoin will be able, in the coming hours, to break the upper line of the descending channel and continue a bullish move, rising at least up to the Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($73,510-$72,000). First Target: Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($73,510-$72,000) Second Target: Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($77,880-$74,950) Stop Loss(SL): $65,980 Points may shift as the market evolves Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage: $66,000-$65,000 CME Gap: $84,560-$79,660 Note: Any news or escalation of the Middle East conflict can cause a sudden shift in Bitcoin’s trend, so, once again, manage your capital carefully in your trades. Note: Given that the S&P 500 index is currently bullish—my personal analysis of the S&P 500 is that it is bullish—and considering Bitcoin’s strong correlation with it, the rise in the S&P 500 could lead to a rise in Bitcoin as well. What do you think about Bitcoin—can it rise above $70,000, or will we see another decline again? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌Bitcoin Analysis (BTCUSDT), 6-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
BINANCE:BTCUSDTLong
by pejman_zwin
46
Future of USOIL? Market & Geopolitical OverviewCrude oil is navigating one of its most complex environments in years. Two competing forces are pulling price in opposite directions simultaneously — and understanding both is essential before forming any directional bias. Where We Are WTI crude oil is currently trading in the $97 to $102 range, with a Bearish Harami candlestick pattern forming in the $102 to $99 zone — warning of a potential downside reversal. MACD is declining in positive territory indicating weakening bullish momentum, and RSI has reversed twice from the upper boundary and is holding around 60. What Is Driving Price The supply picture has been dramatically reshaped by Middle East conflict. The war has created the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market — with crude and oil product flows through the Strait of Hormuz plunging from around 20 million barrels per day before the war to a trickle currently. Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day. Against this, strategic reserve releases are providing a partial offset. IEA member countries unanimously agreed to make 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves available to the market to address disruptions stemming from the war. The Longer-Term Picture The EIA forecasts Brent crude will remain above $95 per barrel over the next two months before falling below $80 in Q3 2026 and around $70 by year end — with prices expected to average $64 in 2027. This forecast rests entirely on assumptions about conflict duration and supply restoration timing. J.P. Morgan sees Brent averaging around $60 per barrel in 2026 based on soft supply-demand fundamentals — with global oil supply set to outpace demand despite production cuts. Key Levels Current range ─── $97 to $102 Resistance ────── $102 — Bearish Harami zone Support ───────── $80 — key level if Hormuz situation eases Downside target ─ $70 by year end per EIA base case Bear scenario ─── $60 average per JPM if conflict resolves The Core Tension Geopolitical risk is keeping price elevated while structural fundamentals point lower. The moment the Hormuz situation resolves — even partially — the strategic reserve overhang and supply glut fundamentals reassert themselves. Watch the geopolitical headlines as closely as the chart.
U
by LibertyNews
1
Gold, Oil, War: Why the Safe Haven Trade Failed This TimeEveryone's asking why gold went down during a war, especially when oil was surging and the whole situation looked like a textbook safe haven setup. At first glance it looks strange. But when you break it down, the move makes a lot more sense. Gold did not suddenly stop being a safe haven. The problem was that this war hit oil first , and once oil started pushing higher, the market immediately shifted to the higher inflation and higher rates story. In other words, the market was no longer just thinking about geopolitical fear. It was thinking about higher inflation, fewer rate cuts, higher yields, and a stronger dollar . That is a much tougher environment for gold in the short term. So instead of getting a clean “war == gold up” reaction, we got a situation where gold initially had the safe haven argument, but then lost momentum because the market started pricing the conflict as inflationary first. And this was not just a narrative. There was real selling pressure too. We did see meaningful ETF outflows after the war started, and derivatives markets also added pressure through long liquidation and margin-related deleveraging. So part of the move was simply positioning getting unwound. Gold had already been a crowded trade, and once yields and the dollar pushed the other way, those longs became vulnerable. On the physical side, the story is more nuanced than some of the rumors going around. I could not find evidence that central banks broadly started dumping gold. The one confirmed major seller was Turkey , which appears to have reduced gold reserves aggressively to manage financial stress and support market stability. According to Reuters, Turkey sold more than 50 tonnes of gold since the Iran war began. To put that into perspective, World Gold Council data shows that total gold ETF outflows over the same period were about 54.8 tonnes. But why Turkey had to sell this much gold, weren't they one of the big buyers of gold in the past?  Yes, and the answer is: Turkey is heavily dependent on energy imports, sourcing more than 90% of its energy from abroad. To finance these imports, Turkey requires foreign exchange reserves, primarily US dollars to pay for energy purchases, even though it has been trying in recent years to reduce its reliance on the dollar. Now let me take you to the other side of the middle east . . .  Rumor has it that Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf countries are also selling gold, heavily. Turkey had to sell gold because it is highly dependent on energy imports and needs dollars to pay for them. The countries around Persian Gulf are the opposite. They are major energy exporters, so their problem is not buying oil and gas. Their problem is that if war disrupts shipping and exports, then the normal dollar inflow from selling energy gets hit. And this matters even more because most of these countries have their currencies pegged to the US dollar . In simple terms, that means they keep their currency tied to the dollar at a fixed rate, so they need strong dollar reserves and enough liquidity to maintain confidence in that system. If oil exports slow down and fewer dollars come in, they may need to use reserves or liquidate assets, including gold, to raise cash and support financial stability. That said, I should be precise here: unlike Turkey, I could not find solid confirmation that Saudi Arabia or other neighboring countries have already been selling gold heavily. But the logic is clear. If a country is dependent on oil export revenues, and war makes it difficult to physically ship that oil, then gold becomes one of the reserve assets they can tap to get quick dollar liquidity. So the recent drop in gold was not really about “everyone selling physical gold.” It looks much more like a combination of: oil shock higher-for-longer rate repricing stronger dollar and higher real yields ETF outflows derivatives deleveraging and one notable forced official-sector seller in Turkey (and probably other countries around Persian Gulf) That combination is enough to push gold down, even in the middle of a war. Silver, of course, got hit even harder because silver is not just a precious metal. It also trades with a much more aggressive speculative and cyclical character, so when markets de-risk, silver usually feels it faster and more violently. If we look at history, this kind of move is not completely unprecedented, but the context matters a lot. In the 1970s, major oil shocks often happened with gold going higher as well, because those periods also came with weak confidence in fiat, high inflation, and a much more supportive macro backdrop for gold. So oil up and gold up could happen together. This time the setup is different. The better comparison is a modern environment where geopolitical stress creates an oil spike, and then the market immediately asks: What does this mean for inflation, yields, the dollar, and central bank policy? That is why this move in gold was not as irrational as it looked on the surface. So my takeaway is simple: Gold did not fall because the war was irrelevant. Gold fell because the market decided that the first-order effect of this war was not “panic,” but inflation risk. And in the short term, that pushed capital toward cash, dollar strength, and yield-sensitive positioning instead of straight into gold. That is also why I think this move needs to be understood in layers. The first layer was geopolitics. The second layer was oil. The third layer was inflation expectations. And the fourth layer was forced selling and positioning unwind. Once you see the market through that sequence, the recent drop in gold and silver looks much less strange.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SamanFx0
S&P and a very timely correction for the U.S. presidentWith the start of the boxing match between the U.S. and the regime in Iran in the Middle East ring, and with rising threats around the Strait of Hormuz, around 20–30% of global oil and gas supply could be disrupted—at least in the coming week (hopefully not for long). Usually, these kinds of tensions inject fear into the markets and create a chain reaction. The first domino to wobble is energy—and in this case, specifically oil prices. So how does this chain look in our case? Higher Oil Price --> Higher Inflation --> Higher Interest Rates --> Lower Corporate Profits Can you see the connection with the S&P? Markets move on trader sentiment and the perceived future value of the assets they trade. So what should we expect for the S&P? If the S&P breaks below $6790, my next target is $6500. The downtrend can be reinforced by sustained higher oil prices and a stronger DXY (>97). In that case, the S&P could reach $6150. Why is this timely? We have the U.S. presidential midterm elections in November. That gives President Trump’s administration enough time to potentially revive the market and show strong growth in the months leading up to the election. Recency bias plays a role here. A new Fed Chairman will be in office by the end of May. As you may know, Kevin Warsh has been announced as the next nominee, and he is considered hawkish. So at least until June, the market will likely price in “no rate cuts.” Seasonality in the S&P also shows that around this period we often see corrections—and sometimes the lowest prices of the year. (Note that, I made the seasonality chart myself and the big moves during the COVID period have not been excluded)
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SamanFx0
16
US Markets Health Check – Bull or Bear?US Treasury bonds are “bad”. Inflation, interest rates (or yields), and the US stock market itself are at “risk”. It is a downgrade from my assessment at the beginning of the year in my tutorial on 09 Jan - the US Treasury bonds were already “bad” and inflation and yields were at “risk”, but the US stock market was only at a “caution” level. I will uncover them one by one in this video tutorial. Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
Gold Bottom or Just a Pullback?After a strong decline, gold suddenly bounced from the 4100 zone. Not because of economic data, and not due to a confirmed shift in trend… but largely driven by market sentiment reacting to tweets and statements from Trump. In a short time, emotions shifted. Doubt slowly turned into expectation. And one question started to appear more frequently: “Has the bottom already formed?” But the market doesn’t move based on emotions. It moves based on structure. 🌍 Macro Context Geopolitical tensions are showing signs of temporary easing (negotiations, calls for a ceasefire). However, key risks — especially around the Hormuz region — still remain. At the same time, there is no major economic data today. Which means: 👉 Price action is currently driven mostly by technicals and market sentiment. 📉 Market Structure If we zoom out and ignore short-term noise: The primary trend remains: Bearish The current move: A recovery within a short-term ascending trendline channel A strong bounce can easily make it look like a reversal. But until structure is broken… it’s still just a pullback. 📊 Where Are We Now? Gold is currently trading within a very wide range: Upper boundary: 4740 Lower boundary: 4220 Within this range, price action is mostly consolidation. On a smaller timeframe (intraday), price is reacting between: 4350–4370 ↔ 4640 This is the key zone to watch for short-term decisions. 🧩 Key Levels to Watch Support: 4380, 4400, 4300, 4320, 4220, 4250 Resistance: 4600, 4615, 4640, 4660, 4693, 4730 These are not just levels — they represent shifts in market psychology. ⚠️ When Does the Scenario Change? A close above 4740 → structure shifts → SELL scenario invalidated A close below 4220 → confirms continuation of the downtrend → targets: 4000 – 3950 – 3900 🎯 Trading Plan In the current context, the goal is not to predict the bottom. It’s to understand where you are within the trend. Primary trend: bearish Current move: pullback ➡️ Therefore: Look for selling opportunities on rallies, not chasing buys. 🧠 Final Thought The market often creates rallies that are strong enough to convince you a bottom is in. But most of the time… it’s just the way it continues the existing trend. A bottom is not confirmed by feeling. It is confirmed by structure. 🚀 If you find this perspective useful Drop a 🚀 and follow for more high-quality trading ideas every day.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Chum_trades
8
Nasdaq Forecast: Risks Build for Another Downturn In line with the double top pattern formed between the December 2024 and February 2025 highs, which preceded a sharp downturn and dip-buying opportunity in April 2025, similar risks are now emerging for April 2026. The Nasdaq continues to consolidate below the October 2025 and January 2026 highs, forming a potential double top below the 26,300 level, while currently testing the 23,500 neckline. Bearish Scenario: A close below 23,500, combined with a weekly RSI trending below the neutral 50 level, would confirm the double top pattern and extend drawdown risks toward 22,400 and 22,200—levels aligned with the previous structure and potential dip-buying zones. Bullish Scenario: The index needs to reclaim 24,600 and 24,900 to restore bullish momentum toward 25,500 and 25,800. A break above these levels would open the path back toward 26,300 and the 27,000 zone, signaling a continuation of the long-term uptrend. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by FOREX.com
If 4100 Is Not the Bottom, Where Is Gold Headed Next?Trump reversed course, gold rebounded sharply — but in my view, this is still not a sign that the market has bottomed. The market has just gone through a strong wave of panic following the 48-hour ultimatum related to the Strait of Hormuz. But less than 48 hours later, Trump’s decision to delay the planned strike on Iran eased market fears and triggered a notable rebound in gold. From my personal perspective, this temporary de-escalation seems more like an attempt to calm the pressure from rising oil prices and inflation, rather than a real sign that the underlying risk has passed. In other words, the market is reacting to the rhetoric, but that does not necessarily mean the core story has changed. That is why I still believe gold has not formed a bottom yet. At this stage, every rebound still looks like an opportunity to sell in line with the broader trend. For now, price should be monitored within the H4 range, with the lower boundary at 4235 - 4240 and the upper boundary at 4496 - 4500. As long as price remains within this range, the market is still in a state of hesitation and has not yet confirmed a clear direction. Resistance to watch: 4496 - 4500 - 4515 - 4697 - 4700 - 4735 - 4740 Support to watch: 4200 - 4235 - 4100 - 4000 - 3950 If price breaks strongly above 4740, then the sell bias should be abandoned. But for now, I still lean toward the scenario in which gold may continue correcting toward the 4000 - 3950 area, as there is still no clear sign of a confirmed bottom. If you find this perspective useful, drop a rocket, leave your view in the comments, and follow the channel. I’ll keep updating the key levels and latest scenarios so you do not get caught off guard in this market.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Chum_trades
2
Don’t Catch the Bottom – Gold Has Confirmed a Downtrend (D1)📊 XAUUSD Plan – Intraday 👉 Context: Yesterday’s D1 candle closed with full bearish momentum → confirms SELL pressure is in control 👉 Strategy: Focus on selling the rally → Avoid bottom picking → Expected intraday range: ~200–250 points 👉 SELL: 4,800–4,810 │ 4,760–4,780 👉 SUPPORT/TP: 4,700 │ 4,660–4,650 │ 4,600 │ 4,500 │ 4,400 👉 Notes: Price is moving fast, deep wicks are normal → Manage risk strictly, no FOMO 👉 ACTION: Wait for pullbacks → execute SELL based on plan 🎯 Follow + drop a 🚀 to ride the waves together
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Chum_trades
Precious Metals - Range Now, Trend Later After the Middle East conflict started on 28 February, with no end in sight, commodity prices are expected to continue rising, leading to inflation. Why did precious metals not perform as expected by most retail investors? The savvy ones know their time may come later. The immediate concern is the upcoming inflation data and the possibility of Kevin Warsh becoming the next Fed Chair. He is considered hawkish, believing that "inflation is the enemy," compared to the more dovish Jerome Powell, who prefers to "let the economy breathe." Kevin Warsh’s first key decision could come in June, and inflation numbers may not look encouraging. Market watchers expect him to hike interest rates, and this could just be the beginning if the Middle East conflict becomes prolonged. Investors are anticipating higher interest rates, which could lead to a stronger US dollar. Gold, also known as a dollar hedge, may face pressure under this expectation. Therefore, it is not surprising to see precious metals being suppressed for the time being. Why are they ranging for now? Inflation was already sticky, and this situation could become a launchpad for prices to move higher with any trigger, especially events like those on 28 February. If inflation and interest rates continue to rise, the US dollar’s strength may eventually face limitations due to deficits, debt, and other structural issues. When investors realise it may not be worth chasing a premium in the US dollar while inflation continues rising, crude oil and commodities may continue their uptrend, allowing precious metals to reclaim their crown. For now, traders may look to benefit from the range. Video version for this analysis: 100-Ounce Silver Futures Ticker: SIC Minimum fluctuation: 0.01 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
COMEX:GC1!
by konhow
XAU is Consolidating... Don't Get Chopped! Gold has shifted into a clear consolidation phase after last week’s impulsive move, and this is exactly the type of market that wipes traders out if you’re not careful. 🧠 What we’re seeing right now After a strong push, price is no longer trending… it’s rebalancing. We’re currently: Trading below higher timeframe value → bearish bias Sitting around a high volume node (POC) Seeing constant sweeps of session highs/lows This is not clean price action… this is liquidity building 🔁 Why this matters (look left) If you look at previous consolidation phases on gold (like the one marked): They all follow the same structure: Strong impulsive move Messy range / chop Liquidity taken on both sides Then the real move begins 👉 The key point: The longer price sits in consolidation, the bigger the move that follows 📊 Key levels I’m watching 🔼 Upside (5170–5190 zone) Previous value area resistance Trendline confluence Likely area for a liquidity grab before continuation 🔽 Downside (4850–4900 zone) Strong demand zone from previous move Untapped liquidity Realistic downside target if bearish structure holds 🟪 Current price (5000–5040 area) High volume / POC Chop zone Worst place to trade ⚠️ The trap This is where traders get caught: Breakouts fail Entries get reversed Overtrading kicks in This environment will bleed your account if you force trades 🎯 My approach I’m keeping it simple: Bias = bearish while below value Waiting for: Moves into resistance / VAH Session sweeps Rejection at key volume levels No interest in trading the middle of this range. 💡 Reality check This is only my 5th short of the year… and that tells you everything. You don’t need constant trades. All you need is one clean entry a day — not 10 forced ones. 🚀 What happens next? Once this range breaks: Expect fast expansion Likely continuation in direction of higher timeframe bias Until then… patience pays. If you’re trading gold right now, slow it down — this is a thinking market, not a chasing one. Follow for more breakdowns like this 👍
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Simon-On-Markets
S&P 500, Oil Shock, and Why Recession Risk Is Rising?Almost two years ago, in my post “ A Recession Is Coming - Brace for Impact ”, I talked about the inverted yield curve as a warning sign. Now the curve has already un-inverted, and that part matters a lot. In my opinion, the inversion is usually the warning, and the un-inversion is often when the economy starts to feel the pressure that the bond market had already priced in earlier. The New York Fed’s model, updated with data through January 2026, shows a January 2027 recession probability of 18.8% The U.S. economy was already slowing down before this recent oil shock and the rising tension in the Middle East. U.S. real GDP growth for Q4 2025 was revised down to 0.7%, versus 4.4% in Q3, and the unemployment rate in February 2026 was 4.4%. That is not a collapse, but it is not a strong backdrop either. In my recent post, “ S&P and a very timely correction for the U.S. president ”, I mentioned this chain: Higher Oil Price --> Higher Inflation --> Higher Rates (or fewer cuts) --> Lower Corporate Profits --> Lower Equities I still think that chain is very relevant. Why? Because this is not just about oil going up on a headline. Oil is up sharply, and the Strait of Hormuz disruption is threatening a route that carries a very large share of global oil supply, more than 20%. If this persists, it can push transportation costs, production costs, and consumer costs higher again. That is how a geopolitical shock turns into a macro problem. And we have seen this type of reaction before. During major geopolitical conflicts that affected energy markets, like the 1973 oil embargo, the 1979 Iranian shock, the 1990 Gulf crisis, and even the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, oil moved higher, inflation pressure increased, and equities came under stress. Of course every cycle is different, but the pattern is often similar: when energy becomes more expensive, margins get tighter, growth slows down, and the S&P starts repricing that risk. This is where the word stagflation becomes important. For anyone new to the term, recession means slower growth, weaker demand, and a softer labor market. Stagflation is when growth slows down while inflation stays high or moves higher again. That is a much more difficult environment for the market, because the Fed cannot support the economy as easily if inflation is still being pushed up by energy. So even if growth weakens, policy may stay tighter than the market wants. Then we have the private credit side of the story. This part is also important. When firms like Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and BlackStone among others, start limiting withdrawals in private credit funds, it tells us something. It doesn't automatically mean crisis but it does mean that liquidity is not as strong as it looks in calm markets. That is the kind of thing we need to watch closely, because credit stress can spread into risk assets very quickly. So for me, the bigger picture is this: Old yield curve warning still matters Growth was already slowing Oil shock is adding fresh inflation pressure That limits how supportive the Fed can be And private credit is starting to show signs of stress That doesn't mean 2026 has to become another 2008 GFC. The structure of the risk is different. But it means that the probability of recession or even stagflation is higher than many people want to admit right now. So when I look at the S&P 500 chart here, I do not just see a technical setup. I see a market that may still be underpricing a macro environment that can get worse before it gets better. What do you think? Do you think a recession is looming? Share your thoughts with me in the comments.
TVC:US10Y
by SamanFx0
Oil Near the Danger Zone: The 2026 Middle East Energy ShockCrude oil is once again approaching the top of a decade-long range , and history shows this level matters. For nearly 12 years , oil has largely traded inside a wide macro range: • Support: ~$40 • Baseline equilibrium : ~$75 • Major resistance / danger zone: ~$110 Each time oil approached or exceeded this upper boundary, it coincided with major economic stress events. Examples on the chart: • 2008 oil spike → global recession • 2011–2014 elevated oil → economic slowdown • 2022 Ukraine war spike → global inflation shock Now we are seeing another geopolitical catalyst: The 2026 Middle East Energy Shock. War in a region that influences the Strait of Hormuz — a route responsible for roughly 20% of global oil supply — has injected a significant war risk premium into energy markets. The key question now is whether this spike fades… or breaks the range. Possible Scenarios Scenario 1 — De-escalation If geopolitical tensions cool, oil could fall back toward the long-term equilibrium zone around $75–$85. This would signal that the recent spike was primarily temporary war-risk pricing rather than a sustained supply disruption. Scenario 2 — Persistent Conflict If tensions remain but supply routes stay open, oil could stabilize in the $95–$110 range. This environment historically produces persistent inflation pressure and higher energy costs without necessarily triggering a full economic shock. Scenario 3 — Supply Disruption If the conflict escalates and supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz are materially disrupted, a decisive break above $110 could occur. Historically, moves above this level have led to rapid price expansions toward $130–$150+ , often coinciding with major economic stress or recessionary pressure. Key Level to Watch $110 — The macro resistance zone. If oil remains below this level, the market may absorb the current geopolitical shock. If it breaks and holds above it, the world could be entering another major energy price cycle.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Trendy-Neck
EURJPY Bearish Alert | Middle East Tensions Boost JPY!Hey Traders, In tomorrow's trading session, we are monitoring EURJPY for a potential selling opportunity around the 184.900 zone. EURJPY is currently trading in a downtrend and is undergoing a corrective phase, approaching a key trendline confluence and the 184.900 support–resistance area. This level could act as a strong reaction zone where sellers may step back in and continue the broader bearish structure. From a fundamental perspective, rising tensions in the Middle East are increasing global uncertainty. In such environments, safe-haven demand tends to rise for traditional assets like the Japanese Yen, which could strengthen the Yen and add further downward pressure on EURJPY. If price shows rejection around this level, we may see continuation toward lower levels in line with the prevailing bearish trend. As always, wait for confirmation and manage risk carefully. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
30
OIL SURGES ABOVE $110 THEN COOLS – WHERE IS GOLD HEADING?Market Context After the sharp drop earlier this week, gold is now consolidating in a sideways range around 5150 – 5160, with buying interest appearing again near 5060. The short-term trend remains unclear, so the main strategy for now is range trading while observing price reactions at key levels. During consolidation phases, the market often produces liquidity sweeps with long wicks, so it’s important to avoid chasing price and manage risk carefully. In addition, this week’s CPI data could trigger strong volatility and help the market determine its next directional move. Trading Plan Resistance 5185 – 5195 – 5200 – 5210 – 5260 – 5280 → Look for SELL opportunities if price retraces into resistance and shows signs of weakness. Support 5120 – 5092 – 5080 – 5060 – 5020 – 5000 – 4960 – 4930 → Short-term BUY scalps (5–7 points) can be considered if price reacts positively at nearby support zones. Key Trading Ideas The market is currently consolidating in a sideways range, so the focus is trading the range boundaries. The 5120 – 5092 area may offer quick BUY scalp opportunities. Trade the breakout direction: • Break above 5210 → potential upside expansion toward 5260 – 5280 • Break below 5020 – 5000 → potential downside continuation toward 4960 – 4930 ⚠️ Be cautious of liquidity sweeps ahead of the CPI release. 🚀 If you find this trading plan helpful, don’t forget to drop a 🚀 and hit Follow! I share daily XAUUSD trading plans, key support & resistance levels, and intraday scenarios to help traders prepare before each session. 📈 Follow to stay updated with market insights and trade plans for gold. Wishing everyone safe trading, strong discipline, proper risk management, and plenty of pips! 💰
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Chum_trades
3