WTI capped below $100: Short the bounce or wait for retest?WTI Crude Oil remains capped below the $100 handle. Even after the recent bounce we highlighted in our weekly analysis, the market remains hesitant as the geopolitical risk premium fades. With a 10-day Lebanon-Israel ceasefire in effect and Trump signalling that the Iran war should end soon, we break down why rallies remain suspect and map out downside levels to watch.
Key topics covered
- Geopolitical De-escalation : Trump has stated the Iran war should end soon, and weekend talks are possible. Combined with the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, markets are currently ignoring the IEA's warning about a two-year recovery for Middle East output, focusing on near-term de-escalation.
- Dead-Cat Bounce : We review the recent relief rally that perfectly stalled at the $98 level (between the 50% and 61.8% Fibos). The failure to reclaim the $100 psychological barrier confirmed this move was corrective, eventually leading to a fresh local low.
- RSI divergence & triangle pattern : A recent bullish RSI divergence has sparked a short-term recovery. We explain how this bounce could evolve into a triangle or pennant pattern. If price holds above $89, we could see a retest of the upper trendline, but the broader structure remains vulnerable.
WTI scenarios & trade plan
Bearish : The cleaner setup currently remains on the short side, as the recent downside move only hit the 61.8% extension, leaving the 100% extension untested.
Setup: Aggressive traders may look to fade the current bounce if prices reject the near-term ceiling. Conservative traders may wait for a confirmed break of the lower trendline.
Targets: The downside objective for this bearish continuation sits at $77.50.
Bullish (Triangle) : If the current RSI divergence provides enough momentum, WTI could continue its short-term corrective bounce.
Targets: A push higher would target the upper boundary of the developing triangle near $97 to $98.70 and potentially retest the $100 mark.
Note: Unless WTI breaks that upper trendline, all rallies are treated as corrective and remain highly suspect.
Are you shorting the current bounce or waiting for the top trendline? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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Short
Gold Tests 5200 Resistance on Softer DollarTrump’s latest comments, foreseeing a near-term resolution to the Middle East conflict, softened the dollar and re-injected bullish sentiment into markets, lifting gold toward the 5,200 resistance.
Gold remains in consolidation, trading beyond the trendline connecting higher lows since February 2026. The bias leans neutral-to-bearish below the 5,200 resistance and above the 4,960 support.
A weekly close above 5,200 exposes: 5,250 - 5,320 - 5,400 - 5,600 - 6,000
On the downside, a close below 4,960 exposes a deeper correction toward: 4,840 - 4,680 - 4,480
These represent approximately 200-point declines between previously respected support zones. A break below the February 2026 lows could expose a further 1,000-point correction, resetting momentum before realigning the metal with potential new record highs.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
US Stocks: Likely Scenarios After the Middle East Conflict on 28As of the close of the Dow Jones last Friday, 27 February, the monthly chart indicated an inverted pattern — not just in the cash market, but also in the futures market.
Then on Saturday, the Middle East conflict erupted once again.
First, I analysed the monthly chart, followed by the smaller time frame on the weekly. If you try it on the daily and even the hourly, you will see much more detail.
Video analysis:
Micro e-mini Dow Jones futures
Ticker: MYM
Minimum fluctuation:
Outright: 1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
Short
Education
Will Oil Prices Ignite Amid a Middle East War?The global oil market is critical, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East potentially leading to significant price fluctuations. Recent military actions by the U.S. against Yemen's Houthi group have contributed to rising oil prices, as Brent crude futures reached $71.21 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures hit $67.80 per barrel. Positive economic indicators from China, including increased retail sales, have supported oil prices despite global economic slowdown concerns.
The Middle East remains a focal point for oil price volatility due to its strategic importance in global oil supply. Iran, a major oil producer, could face disruptions if tensions escalate, potentially driving prices higher. However, global spare capacity and demand resilience might cap long-term increases. Historical events like the 2019 Saudi oil facility attacks demonstrate the market's sensitivity to regional instability, with prices spiking by $10 following the incident.
Analysts predict that if the conflict escalates to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel. Nevertheless, historical data suggests that prices may stabilize within a few months if disruptions prove temporary. The delicate balance between supply shocks and market adjustments underscores the need to closely monitor geopolitical developments and their economic ripple effects.
As global economic uncertainties overshadow geopolitical risks, maintaining market confidence will depend on sustained positive economic data from countries like China. The potential for peace negotiations in Ukraine and changes in U.S. sanctions could also impact oil prices, making this a pivotal moment for global energy markets.
Long 
XAUUSD | Trade ideaDuring morning trading, the XAU/USD pair is holding around 2500.00. At the end of last week, gold demonstrated a confident upward trend. It was partly supported by expectations of the US Fed’s imminent transition to a “dovish” monetary policy cycle. Analysts have revised their estimates of a possible interest rate cut of 50 basis points, and now, its probability is no more than 28.0%. At the same time, the American regulator may adjust the value by –25 basis points at each of the three meetings scheduled this year, leading to a sharp reduction in the borrowing cost from the current 5.50%. Traders will discuss the possible steps of the financial authorities all week since the annual symposium in Jackson Hole will be held on Thursday, August 22. The representatives of the world’s central banks will speak, giving assessments of the current economic situation, as well as the timing of changes in monetary parameters. A day earlier, the US Fed will publish the minutes of the July meeting, which ended with the interest rate maintained at the current level. In addition, investors will pay attention to business activity data. The service PMI may fall from 55.0 points to 54.2 points, and the manufacturing PMI from 49.6 points to 49.4 points. Another factor supporting gold prices is the continuing risks of military conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Despite conflicting reports in the media about the Iranian authorities’ imminent response to the death of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh, no active measures have been taken against official Israel so far, which, on the one hand, only increases uncertainty, preventing market participants from counting on the parties concluding a peace agreement. 
Long
Short 
Title: Geopolitical Tempest Navigating the EUR/ILS Currency PairThe EUR/ILS exchange rate is a crucial indicator of Israel's economic and geopolitical stability in relation to the Eurozone. Recently, it has been under substantial pressure due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. This dynamic interplay of geopolitical risks and economic factors creates a complex environment for the Israeli shekel (ILS) against the Euro (EUR).
Key Points
1. Geopolitical Background: The conflict between Israel and Iran, fueled by nuclear ambitions, proxy wars, and direct military engagements, has deep historical, religious, and political roots.
2. Economic Implications: Investor confidence, economic sanctions, and increased military expenditures are critical factors influencing the ILS. Geopolitical instability can reduce investor confidence, cause capital flight, and strain Israel's fiscal budget.
3. Impact on EUR/ILS Exchange Rate: Geopolitical risks lead to a flight to safety, with investors seeking stable currencies like the Euro. Inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions and military spending can erode the ILS, while the Bank of Israel's interventions may be limited by persistent tensions.
Conclusion
The Israel-Iran conflict casts a long shadow over the Israeli economy and the strength of the ILS. As geopolitical tensions persist, the EUR/ILS exchange rate is likely to experience significant volatility. Investors and policymakers must remain vigilant, monitoring developments closely to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities in this uncertain environment.
Long
